omg! now mornings brighter and sunnier than ever. The eternal optimists are still talking abt rains that never came! will they come at all? time alone can tell.
Fun Fact of the day:Do you know that Volkswagen owns Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche,Ducati,SEAT and Skoda?
I knew they were the General Motors of Europe but not to such an extent.
Look at the vorticity map…. Dark blue over tn is fading slowly. Actually blue color is the impact of hpa (clockwise spin).. So now Almost route is getting clearing up for tn..
Some models r showing another system in s.bay.., it is just same like previous one 98B Dep tat formed 4m 95S. if ther is going to be system in s.indian ocean, then ther wil be system in s.bay .just like previous system. Sst along s.east ind ocean is very high ,tat is allowing the convection to sustain longer..very high sst along s.east ind ocean going to keep our south and s.east bay active in tis december.
Strengthening of LPA over andaman sea is not a big thing. It is a low shear zone. Bay is a high shear zone, once it enters the bay we can get the real picture of the system strength and it’s movement.
Somebody has said have patience, well being patient sure yields results, but u cant be patient sitting in a desert and expecting snow! The conditions of patience differs in situations!
Why criticise other’s beliefs unnecessarily?People believe what they want to.Astrology posts are made for like-minded people.
Believe it or leave it.
Shouldn’t we raise above our differences?While you think you are right,the other person thinks that too.
Give respect to every man’s opinion.
astrology is also more valued.. The science of astrology is huge and cannot be understood by common people.. In India, astrologers are followin the older methods.. But not in foreign countries.. Tey involve in research works also
I dont want to comment as u said Iam a common man! maybe u are a rare man?
He was merely saying everyone who knows astrology only superficially will not understand the science behind it.You have to go deep into it to understand it.
Even normal physics like that.He didn’t mean to offend you
26thNovember’2008 Pak Team attacked Mumbai,In 2012 English Team(Read in facebook)
People who made debut with and after Tendulkar. Tendulkar made in 1989.
Kambli – After Tendulkar but removed from team for wrong reasons.
Kumble – 1989, Retired in 2005.
Srinath – 1992, Retired before Kumble. Don’t know the year.
Dravid – 1996, Retired last year.
Ganguly – 1996, Retired 3 years back.
Lakshman – 1998, Retired in 2012.
Instead of predictive astrology i.e. astrology that is used to forecast events happening in the future if astrology can be used as psychological counselling i.e. chart out a person’s strengths and weaknesses from the jaatakam and ask him or her to work on it would be a valuable resource. Unfortunately nobody is wanting this because everybody wants to know the future and unscrupulous astrologers want to make a fast buck.
It is made for people who believe it.Why don’t you just move on?It is not democratic to suppress one’s opinion.
Why ? Nothing is ever useless. Everything has its place in time and society. I have a great interest in the mind analysis. I frequently use
Giving you an example – many people I know never wanted to be an engineer or a doctor. Many of them like the arts. But arts is not considered a profession that can pay well. So they become doctors or engineers and then feel stressed with their lives. If the jaatakam can guide on what kind of job would help them the most rather than when they are likely to get a job then astrology IMHO can do a service to society.
but my case is differnt…dont wan’t be an IT Guy, but forced to be
IMD GMDSS:
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 27 NOV 2012
———————————————————-
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING (.)
PART II:-THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS(.)
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD HAS ORGANISED INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SAME REGION(.)
Raijin & sundar, We are not lik those poor farmers who doesnt knw wat is happening.. So, not being patient and gettin frustrated is common for them.. But we interpret everythin and cum to a understandin.. We knw wats happening and so we shld fold our Hands and stay cool bro.. Lets wait and watch..
suundar24 – instead of telling you when it will rain next(or how much it will rain) how about I prepare you for a possibillity of a drought or r a flood using astrology ? This way you will be prepared well for the future.
Making a prediction(which can go wrong) would mean that I am no different than those who exploit astrology for its predictive power.
Extremely sorry-I am not going to abuse astrology for its predictive power. You can contact Astrologer Ramachandran(contact info available on net) for that purpose. If you want to know what job you should be doing I can help you 🙂
This time both GFS and NOGAPS comes together.
GFS model more promising than yesterday, the purple light glows today.
@Raijin – I sympathise with you completely. That is the case of a lot of Indians. They dont want to be in IT or be a doctor. Many of them are artistically talented but because of how society operates they are forced to be because of family.
Very few get to do what they want to do. Even in my case much later in life.
how can the imaginary planets Raghu and kethu influence a man on earth!
Even the greatest mathematician and astrologer baskaracharya’s daughter marriage ended in disaster. History says he saw so many jathakams and arrived at one and what happened?
Suundar24- All planets and all galaxies and stars and in fact the universe is within you. 🙂 Not external to you. You see the universe as separate from you – others see it as a part of you. Different perspectives.
Iam what I was destined to be, by the grace of all mighty. Iam pained to see so many marriages failing nowadays all fixed by some jathakams, who cares to see if the boy or girl understand each other. Never seen a jathakam in my life. Nor will I.
U know this, I see many buffoons on the streets saying we dont want any more rains bcoz it will flood our area etc, mostly from velachery area, avadi etc,. See how short sighted they are.
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
@ partha- back to your list of players who have retired before sachins retirement, ive got this piece of info which really happened..My Grandmother who is a 99 with partial eye sight and hearing now and a avid cricket follower till last year was watching matches on a regular basis incl IPL..You have to believe this fact..When Rahul Dravid was holding a press con after announcing his retirement, My Grandma asked me as to whats happening and why is Dravid being shown on TV.I replied saying that he has retired now form test cricket and hence the press con..Her reply really baffled me..She asked a simple question, why is he retiring when he is playing so well and why sachin has not retired though he had started playing well before Dravid..We at home were speechless with her observations….Only sachin can answer her question..
Right time for Sachin came, after we won the world cup he should have retired. That too the final match held in Mumbai. It was very good situation for him.
I dont understand threatening !!!!!!!!!!!
nothing to threaten, the towers are only 1 mm for 3hrs
or u meant to say threatening bcos of no rain predicted?
@partha-That million dollar you had mentioned is the real issue i think now for him..He would lose those million dollars from endorsements and also a player can hog the limelight as long as he plays and the moment you retire the fuss and excitement around you vanishes..
This is life. As far as your in spotlight you will be given importance.
Same thing happened to Kapil, Gavaskar.
Lets accept the fact.
I think this is the problem of Sachin now. He thinks about losing the spotlight and the importance given to him will be lost. He wants to be in spotlight as far as possible.
@Partha- its like a system hogging the limelight till the time it makes a landfall and we tend to forget the moment it makes and goes inland..Eg this season like..Nilam, 98b…….
Dont bother about the buffoons and the astrologers. They will never impact the weather. We cant the predict the weather pattern exactly with the present available technology. Oneday man will conquer it too like the moonlanding and hopefully in our lifetime. Till that, we are only at the receiving end of the nature. No point in blaming the astrologers and the socalled buffoons. Their predictions are just their whims only. If we dont receive adequate rainfall in December as well , then we have to find the solutions for the possible drought in the next summer. Blaming anyone helps nobody. But, thankfully Andhra had bountiful rains during the Nilam and then can help us to tide over the situation.
Recently Tendulkar told a television channel: “I am 39 and I don’t think I have plenty of cricket left in me. But it depends on my frame of mind and my physical ability to deliver. When I feel that I am not delivering what is needed, then I will re-look at the scheme of things. I am already 39 and no one expects me to go on playing forever. I will go with what my heart says.
Tough call for him and for us also..Sachin,whats your heart saying now..we are interested to know.
When his heart speak, our series against Eng and Australia at home, would be lost by then. Team is bigger than any individual even if he is Sachin. Investing in youth will pay in the long term at least
seems there will be another cyclone in BOB. chennai gonna have a hard time coming summer 😦
Astrology is one of the oldest art and science. It had given a lot of inputs for astronomy . But it had been grossly misused in indian society.
Astrologers have made people as slaves to their prediction. One should lead their life as per their passion and not by what an astrologer says. Instead of taking it as guidance we take it as the ultimate truth.
Marriages , career , child birth , even good time bad time for daily routines.
Love and passion should be the direction and not astrology.
If hair doesnt grow no one will put mottai. Iam a big devotee of Lord Venkateshwara but still rationality should prevail. Take astrology as fun and guidance not as the end of your life.
I was a marine engineer by compulsion for 15 years but had passion for business and stock market since i was 19 years old. Now iam fully in stock market and enjoying my passion. Plenty of youngsters are following their passion in the present generation. Nice to see that. We are changing. Look at our young sudharshan , school kid but poonthu vilayadaran in weather.
india future is bright , kids are defying gravity.
Even in stock market, lot of astrologers are predicting the stock movement and market movement even on daily basis. There is still a crowd to follow that. That is like turning mirror of adjacent auto for igniting our vehicle.
Astronomy is a fascinating subject in which an Atheist may become a believer by looking at the sheer size of the universe and its functioning in a methodical manner. At the same time, a believer may turn atheist on seeing how can a single power control such enormous system? Astronomy is such a wonderful subject/passion/science. By looking at the size of the universe, we will realise how tiny we are in the entire universe. Beliefs are not illegal. On questioning the beliefs only, one can find the new answers/solutions. Rationality breeds from the questioning only.
Astrology will never go away nor the beliefs. it will stay till the end of the world. Stock market has 90% of gamblers and astrology is used as a tool by some.
Iam not saying we should abandon astrology nor the beliefs.
All iam saying is parents should not force children to follow a life path as said by a astrologer rather than by what the child loves to do. Ithu thanda unn thala ezuthu …atha padi nadanthuko….that is ridiculous. creativity will not flourish where there is no love or passion.
That’s actually a really good post,sir.A true astrologer will never say this will happen or that will happen.He will only say you have choices as such in front of you.It only provides guidance.I don’t know whether you thought so deep into it,but that’s the wisdom of the ages contained right there.
We choose life.Hats off.
This Anti-cyclone is expected to move North into Madhyapradesh after 30-Nov… this will be good for upcoming S-E Bay LOW.COLA model now suggests that the present circulation will become eleongated from North to South during next 2 days .And suggests a strong circulation will pop from this over S-S-E Bay on 1-Dec… this circulation is expected to track West from 2-Dec.
nogaps hasnt updated since yest.and nogaps is the worst weather model
but ecmwf is more accurate than anything else. now they have deterministic model which is updated today have shown that the system approaching north of chennai.
Well organized clouds in Bay of Bengal, but not moving to our coast due to high pressure some models predicts cyclone no use of cyclone to tamilnadu or andhra.But Chennai want only strong low pressure will give up to 40 to 60 cms rain for us.But these year Monsoon started October 17 but still Chennai not received very heavy rainfall these year .Monsoon failure for Chennai, but heavy rain these year for deltas region. They getting 126 cms so for (Southwest monsoon + North East Monsoon) ={46+86} Chennai A.P =57+39 =96.We need at least 50cms to normal monsoon.I think its very difficult to Chennai.
I could not open since facebook link is blocked in my office.
Will go home and see.
Nogaps predicts the system as a cyclone hitting somewhere between Central and North TN on 3rd or 4th.. Lets c how it unfolds.
Log on to weather of india site..You will find it.
Partha-Are you not getting it when you click the link ive posted??
no facebook is blocked here
One thing i am sure is that even ENSO conditions could not be predicted for shorter period by any of the meteorlogists in the world. It keeps changing frequently.
ENSO neutral conditions in west equatorial pacific and it is going to continue as such. This will not trigger much impact to us.
But another important and positive change is that the SST over west indian ocean is higher from 28-30C. This may create an impact i guess.
This is why the CPC website was confused in forecasting the south india from 05th to 11th December.
Changes in ocean is too fast.
IMD had forecast saying this time NEM will be excess on 18th October. That is another positive note to be taken care.
@Raijin, just wait and watch whether its a comedy or not..Gut feeling says that would be the reading..
u r expecting around 55 cm….it is impossible…
We will have three spells till 31st and im hoping to reach the said 1025mm….NEM will be Never Ending Monsoon from 3rd till Jan 1st week.
A low-pressure area has formed over Andaman Sea on Tuesday and has been put under watch for intensification straight away.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that the ‘low’ would become ‘well marked’ by Wednesday.
NOT PROMISING
But prognosis given out by a number of global models for subsequent phases does not indicate spectacular growth or intensification.
These models, including that of IMD, see the system as breaking up over central Bay in the face of fierce head winds.
The offspring circulations may wallow in the central and south Bay and manage to trigger scattered rain in Tamil Nadu and isolated showers in Kerala.
Odd US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System forecast sees them converging to set up a minimal cyclone off Tamil Nadu coast by December 1.
Atlast LPA is possible to reach TN. Then there should not be any wind shear along the coast. It should go south of chennai, then we get that rain bands over us.
TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY: Sivagiri and Papanasam (both Tirunelveli Dist) 3 each, Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist) and Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist) 1 each.
No,no.I think he knows better than to kid aroun in the matter of rains,this year especially.With the frustration around,People would eat him alive. 🙂
KeaWeather Archives 
Circulation visible !! http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sector-ir.jpg
completely foggy and bitterly cold here in electronic city at the moment
clear sky here in chennai.. Bit colder than sterday.. No fog
its colder than yesterday ! but its usual
December has to make up badly. I was so excited about this year’s monsoon as it started out really well in October.
Finally, it seems everything is falling in place.
Vorticity organized and moving NW. Conv, Divg, VWS all are favorable.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Circulation is intensifying.
CTT is up to -60
circulation is clearly visible 🙂
omg! now mornings brighter and sunnier than ever. The eternal optimists are still talking abt rains that never came! will they come at all? time alone can tell.
20 more days !
jus be patient sundar..
patient patient makes us a depression and frustration patient
Ciruculation near andaman to move west south west and it will intensify as SST is favourable
Dear Sundar ,wait for few more days…system is developing in bay so soon december rain wil kickstart with a bang….
yea.. Indha system namaku dhan
clear sky !! Another colder mornin.. Untill 30, it may be lik tis.. But get ready for a wet 1st week..
Ithuvum kadanthu pogum.
Fun Fact of the day:Do you know that Volkswagen owns Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche,Ducati,SEAT and Skoda?
I knew they were the General Motors of Europe but not to such an extent.
Look at the vorticity map…. Dark blue over tn is fading slowly. Actually blue color is the impact of hpa (clockwise spin).. So now Almost route is getting clearing up for tn..
sakkaraiya pottugonga boss
Some models r showing another system in s.bay.., it is just same like previous one 98B Dep tat formed 4m 95S. if ther is going to be system in s.indian ocean, then ther wil be system in s.bay .just like previous system. Sst along s.east ind ocean is very high ,tat is allowing the convection to sustain longer..very high sst along s.east ind ocean going to keep our south and s.east bay active in tis december.
@kea
Early December looks positive???????????????????
Hi All,
Signs are looking positive, hpa getting ready to clear up as i said yesterday.
From 30th hpa is paving way to our LPA.
Oru chinna gap ,myanmar ku route poduthu…. Hope our easterlies wnt support it.
30-40 knots shear is still crossing central bay. It has to sustain to move the system towards us.
20 knots wind shear is clearing up from south bay.
Anti Cyclonic Circulation looks supportive to LPA in andaman sea. The clockwise circulation is very close to the system.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=
Sel: IMD-GFS shows, one is going to Myanmar, Other one TN/Srilanka
I think this will change in coming days. Wait till 30th.
Divergence is very strong. 40 knots.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=dvg&zoom=Z&time=
UL anticyclone is providing gud support til now.. If it continues ,it wil be amazing.
Strengthening of LPA over andaman sea is not a big thing. It is a low shear zone. Bay is a high shear zone, once it enters the bay we can get the real picture of the system strength and it’s movement.
Parthasri and selvafun now predict rains in dec first week, let see. Nov it was a flop show hope December is a hit show! Praise the lord.
1 lakh comments – Rhodium member(part of Kea blog owner).
Who will achieve this ?
An automated robot which makes regular comments every 3 minutes.
Somebody has said have patience, well being patient sure yields results, but u cant be patient sitting in a desert and expecting snow! The conditions of patience differs in situations!
Try rain,not snow.
Then you will see your expectations are within reach.
Never there are levels and degrees of patience! all dont yield desire results. Sayings and proverbs dont translate really in your life.
accept the reality and move on! dont be an eternal optimist u wont succeed.
I am merely being realistic.But,neither does being a pessimistic make you successful in life.Better good than bad. 🙂
Iam not a pessimist, but certain things if they dont occur ur way, then move on. Dont sit and brood.
How many years it would take for posting individual 1 lakh comments ? How may systems has to get formed to achieve this milestone ?
Is forecasts valid for more than 2 days in this NEM ? Very rare this season
No models are perfect to forecast for more than 4 days.
its varying for every system.. But ECMWF is dng gud job, but the ly issue is tat it doesnt forecasts clearly..
I also trust this model. This is the model had forecast perfectly about NILAM.
If it is 2005, LPA in SE bay, how happy our bloggers would be ? Now nobody is happy about this LPA currently.
Raja,
We are nervous more than being happy. That is why that energy level is not there.
2012: Series of Disappointments for Chennai.Nilam not much impact,98B Bussvanam, 99B ? (only Kea is optimistic about december)
nanum..
As I have made it known in my blogs I have faith in the all mighty but not astrology!
People in India made fools of by the astrologers.
No controversy please
What do u mean by controversy? It is a fact.
Why criticise other’s beliefs unnecessarily?People believe what they want to.Astrology posts are made for like-minded people.
Believe it or leave it.
Shouldn’t we raise above our differences?While you think you are right,the other person thinks that too.
Give respect to every man’s opinion.
Ok if u say so will refrain.
Thank you. 🙂
astrology is also more valued.. The science of astrology is huge and cannot be understood by common people.. In India, astrologers are followin the older methods.. But not in foreign countries.. Tey involve in research works also
I dont want to comment as u said Iam a common man! maybe u are a rare man?
He was merely saying everyone who knows astrology only superficially will not understand the science behind it.You have to go deep into it to understand it.
Even normal physics like that.He didn’t mean to offend you
26thNovember’2008 Pak Team attacked Mumbai,In 2012 English Team(Read in facebook)
People who made debut with and after Tendulkar. Tendulkar made in 1989.
Kambli – After Tendulkar but removed from team for wrong reasons.
Kumble – 1989, Retired in 2005.
Srinath – 1992, Retired before Kumble. Don’t know the year.
Dravid – 1996, Retired last year.
Ganguly – 1996, Retired 3 years back.
Lakshman – 1998, Retired in 2012.
Anyone Else?????
Latest CPC global hazards outlook. No TS in Bay.
05th to 11th it is blank, no updates for indian ocean and bay.
I think they are confused.
The Week-2 forecast becomes more uncertain than normal due to few coherent signals.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php
LPA deepened in last 3 hrs. See the reddish tinge at the center. Lower convergence 10Knots and upper divergence 30knots. Intense convection.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Let something develop, then only we can see where it is going and how much rain we get. With no system in BOB, there won’t be much to expect.
Instead of predictive astrology i.e. astrology that is used to forecast events happening in the future if astrology can be used as psychological counselling i.e. chart out a person’s strengths and weaknesses from the jaatakam and ask him or her to work on it would be a valuable resource. Unfortunately nobody is wanting this because everybody wants to know the future and unscrupulous astrologers want to make a fast buck.
stop this topic, astrology is a controversial subject, all will not agree!
It is made for people who believe it.Why don’t you just move on?It is not democratic to suppress one’s opinion.
Why ? Nothing is ever useless. Everything has its place in time and society. I have a great interest in the mind analysis. I frequently use
Giving you an example – many people I know never wanted to be an engineer or a doctor. Many of them like the arts. But arts is not considered a profession that can pay well. So they become doctors or engineers and then feel stressed with their lives. If the jaatakam can guide on what kind of job would help them the most rather than when they are likely to get a job then astrology IMHO can do a service to society.
ok tell me when will it rain next?
i am one of those member
but my case is differnt…dont wan’t be an IT Guy, but forced to be
IMD GMDSS:
SHIPPING BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N),NORTH OF EQUATOR
VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 27 NOV 2012
———————————————————-
PART I:- NO STORM WARNING (.)
PART II:-THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER COMORIN AREA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD PERSISTS(.)
THE TROUGH OF LOW AT MEAN SEA LEVEL OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD HAS ORGANISED INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE SAME REGION(.)
lol.. Y do u expect snow in desert? :p an awkward example.. Expect rain in the glorious tropical land’s fav. monsoon .. its damn possible ..
Boss,bore adikutho?
Aatathuku aal kuraiyutha? 😛
lol exactly 😀
That was my 1000th comment,I made to you. 😀
😉
marriages fixed with so called jathakams have failed in months! baffonery
lol… sundar, no sammandham between rain and marriage… yea those marriages fail sometimes.. yaru illanu sonnadhu????
u keep ur opinions to yourself. I can cite a 1001 examples of failed astrological predictions. more quacks present.
there are equally failed meteorological predictions also :p its not in our hands… Nature rules them… astrology, meteorology are made by humans !!
This is what i was expecting from IMD.
Raijin & sundar, We are not lik those poor farmers who doesnt knw wat is happening.. So, not being patient and gettin frustrated is common for them.. But we interpret everythin and cum to a understandin.. We knw wats happening and so we shld fold our Hands and stay cool bro.. Lets wait and watch..
coola coola irundhu nondhu noodles aanathuthan mitcham
freeya vidunga boss….
TEMP – Nungambakkam
30.0 & 20.6C
wat abt meena?
no update yet.
Rain forecast from 03 to 09 December.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/RainAno_week2.htm
suundar24 – instead of telling you when it will rain next(or how much it will rain) how about I prepare you for a possibillity of a drought or r a flood using astrology ? This way you will be prepared well for the future.
Making a prediction(which can go wrong) would mean that I am no different than those who exploit astrology for its predictive power.
u are a hardened believer, then tell me when it will rain next, plus or minus 2-3 days. Come on maan!
Extremely sorry-I am not going to abuse astrology for its predictive power. You can contact Astrologer Ramachandran(contact info available on net) for that purpose. If you want to know what job you should be doing I can help you 🙂
This time both GFS and NOGAPS comes together.
GFS model more promising than yesterday, the purple light glows today.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
NOGAPS much stronger.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=144&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
sabba….mudiyala….venam…azhudhuruven…
Please leave topic regarding astrology and beliefs
@Raijin – I sympathise with you completely. That is the case of a lot of Indians. They dont want to be in IT or be a doctor. Many of them are artistically talented but because of how society operates they are forced to be because of family.
Very few get to do what they want to do. Even in my case much later in life.
how can the imaginary planets Raghu and kethu influence a man on earth!
Even the greatest mathematician and astrologer baskaracharya’s daughter marriage ended in disaster. History says he saw so many jathakams and arrived at one and what happened?
Suundar24- All planets and all galaxies and stars and in fact the universe is within you. 🙂 Not external to you. You see the universe as separate from you – others see it as a part of you. Different perspectives.
Iam what I was destined to be, by the grace of all mighty. Iam pained to see so many marriages failing nowadays all fixed by some jathakams, who cares to see if the boy or girl understand each other. Never seen a jathakam in my life. Nor will I.
correct baskaracharya’s daughter marriage was a disaster because
he committed an error in timing of the subhamukurtham
there is a little explanation which i read will provide the link when i come across
How Ehsan sir and other members are reading this blog right now:
Something to chew. Verum vaaya melrathukku aval thevalam.
LLCC at 11N, 94E aprox.
95% accuracy.
IMD morning bulletin,
LPA in andaman sea will become well marked in next 24 hours.
UAC in south tn persists at lower level.
WD would affect western himalayan and adjoining plains of nw india.
Dry air blowing across north KTK and AP.
Where is the water vapour? It is completely dry over north and central bay and near chennai too.
But one thing is that, if this conditions continues the system in bay will not got north since the dry air is blowing, it has to move towards TN.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm
Dec 9-10 u have predicted gud rains, do u stand by it or doubtful?
i have not predicted with analysis. i was just kidding.
partha sir
started to play on the safe side and low
No, i am not changing my stand. I still optimistic on normal rainfall.
09th and 10th are far away from now. It is very difficult to forecast for a particular day.
I can watch this animation hours together
This movement suggests that system moving towards myanmar.
Clouds are moving towards Myanamr. But LLCC is stationary.
It is a circulation build up. Moving in clock wise, this is upper air which moves in opposite direction.
Then it is sure that LLC will move in easterly direction for some time from now.
OK Suundar- lets forget astrology – can you predict how your mood will be if NEM is a failure ? and viceversa ?
See I see the greater picture if NEM is a success we are benefited if not water problem. Hand of god is involved
U know this, I see many buffoons on the streets saying we dont want any more rains bcoz it will flood our area etc, mostly from velachery area, avadi etc,. See how short sighted they are.
Getting in to shape faster
yea its wresting everythin…
Observation,
Watch out,
Dew Point and Humidity going down.
14% fall in humidity in less than an hour.
Meena’s min 21.4
Nunga – 20.6
Vellore – 19.3
Further down in night temp can be expected. Dry air blowing from NE.
No WV across north and central bay. Wind is from NE direction which will bring only dry air. Also HPA presence.
until Friday the min temp. vil stay down…
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
Meanwhile have a look at Bopha………..
Intensity 50 kts now..
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/
@ partha- back to your list of players who have retired before sachins retirement, ive got this piece of info which really happened..My Grandmother who is a 99 with partial eye sight and hearing now and a avid cricket follower till last year was watching matches on a regular basis incl IPL..You have to believe this fact..When Rahul Dravid was holding a press con after announcing his retirement, My Grandma asked me as to whats happening and why is Dravid being shown on TV.I replied saying that he has retired now form test cricket and hence the press con..Her reply really baffled me..She asked a simple question, why is he retiring when he is playing so well and why sachin has not retired though he had started playing well before Dravid..We at home were speechless with her observations….Only sachin can answer her question..
I salute your grand ma.
Tell her it is a million dollar question.
Right time for Sachin came, after we won the world cup he should have retired. That too the final match held in Mumbai. It was very good situation for him.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
I don’t believe in forecasts which are 72+ hrs. But our situation is like this.
Nothing to see in this link, only the image of logo is visible.
Sorry. Some problem with that url.
Some rain in 2nd week of Dec.
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
Precipitation is high for 3, 4 & 5.
http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/INXX0202?par=usatoday&site=www.usatoday.com&promo=0&cm_ven=USAToday&cm_cat=www.usatoday.com&cm_pla=WxPage&cm_ite=CityPage
Cola update is threatening..
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
I dont understand threatening !!!!!!!!!!!
nothing to threaten, the towers are only 1 mm for 3hrs
or u meant to say threatening bcos of no rain predicted?
yes.
I was wondering that how much poor is cola update.
A list of Dec cyclones.
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2011/12/late-december-and-early-january.html
Vorticbob,
I remember the 1993 cyclone which crossed near karaikkal in the afternoon of dec 4. It had rained heavily for 4 days in chennai.
After crossing the coast on 04th it started moving towards north and it was lay centered between chennai and vellore in the evening.
Then the intensity of rain increased at about 7.30PM with lightning and thunder.
Rained through out the night, most of the people in chennai would have not slept and would have been nervous that night.
That amount of lightning and thunder i have not seen so far. I still remember that horror night.
Rain finished at around 4.30AM.
Rainfall that night alone was 18CM in chennai. It is recorded in just 9 hours.
What about Thane?
Vorticbob,
Thane was missing in the list. It has formed around 28th as depression and crossed coast on 30th December.
One more cyclone in the end of December.
I think the same will happen this year too.
Sorry i did not see the year. It was blogged in 2011.
@partha-That million dollar you had mentioned is the real issue i think now for him..He would lose those million dollars from endorsements and also a player can hog the limelight as long as he plays and the moment you retire the fuss and excitement around you vanishes..
This is life. As far as your in spotlight you will be given importance.
Same thing happened to Kapil, Gavaskar.
Lets accept the fact.
I think this is the problem of Sachin now. He thinks about losing the spotlight and the importance given to him will be lost. He wants to be in spotlight as far as possible.
@Partha- its like a system hogging the limelight till the time it makes a landfall and we tend to forget the moment it makes and goes inland..Eg this season like..Nilam, 98b…….
http://www.thehindu.com/sport/cricket/tendulkar-ponting-in-the-same-boat/article4140487.ece
Slowly gaining strength…
circulation to the SE of Srilanka almost fizzling out.. but look at the one to the SW of Sri… !!
How it’l be if its not an error…
wind shear 5kts http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5sht.GIF
@ Suundar
Dont bother about the buffoons and the astrologers. They will never impact the weather. We cant the predict the weather pattern exactly with the present available technology. Oneday man will conquer it too like the moonlanding and hopefully in our lifetime. Till that, we are only at the receiving end of the nature. No point in blaming the astrologers and the socalled buffoons. Their predictions are just their whims only. If we dont receive adequate rainfall in December as well , then we have to find the solutions for the possible drought in the next summer. Blaming anyone helps nobody. But, thankfully Andhra had bountiful rains during the Nilam and then can help us to tide over the situation.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=192&focus=mh
Recently Tendulkar told a television channel: “I am 39 and I don’t think I have plenty of cricket left in me. But it depends on my frame of mind and my physical ability to deliver. When I feel that I am not delivering what is needed, then I will re-look at the scheme of things. I am already 39 and no one expects me to go on playing forever. I will go with what my heart says.
Tough call for him and for us also..Sachin,whats your heart saying now..we are interested to know.
When his heart speak, our series against Eng and Australia at home, would be lost by then. Team is bigger than any individual even if he is Sachin. Investing in youth will pay in the long term at least
seems there will be another cyclone in BOB. chennai gonna have a hard time coming summer 😦
is it good or bad?
vry bad
gng away from chennai?
let the system form 1st then only one can predict the track.hope it doesnt reach cyclone status
global warming !! everything is gng unstable…
Astrology is one of the oldest art and science. It had given a lot of inputs for astronomy . But it had been grossly misused in indian society.
Astrologers have made people as slaves to their prediction. One should lead their life as per their passion and not by what an astrologer says. Instead of taking it as guidance we take it as the ultimate truth.
Marriages , career , child birth , even good time bad time for daily routines.
Love and passion should be the direction and not astrology.
If hair doesnt grow no one will put mottai. Iam a big devotee of Lord Venkateshwara but still rationality should prevail. Take astrology as fun and guidance not as the end of your life.
I was a marine engineer by compulsion for 15 years but had passion for business and stock market since i was 19 years old. Now iam fully in stock market and enjoying my passion. Plenty of youngsters are following their passion in the present generation. Nice to see that. We are changing. Look at our young sudharshan , school kid but poonthu vilayadaran in weather.
india future is bright , kids are defying gravity.
Even in stock market, lot of astrologers are predicting the stock movement and market movement even on daily basis. There is still a crowd to follow that. That is like turning mirror of adjacent auto for igniting our vehicle.
Astronomy is a fascinating subject in which an Atheist may become a believer by looking at the sheer size of the universe and its functioning in a methodical manner. At the same time, a believer may turn atheist on seeing how can a single power control such enormous system? Astronomy is such a wonderful subject/passion/science. By looking at the size of the universe, we will realise how tiny we are in the entire universe. Beliefs are not illegal. On questioning the beliefs only, one can find the new answers/solutions. Rationality breeds from the questioning only.
Astrology will never go away nor the beliefs. it will stay till the end of the world. Stock market has 90% of gamblers and astrology is used as a tool by some.
Iam not saying we should abandon astrology nor the beliefs.
All iam saying is parents should not force children to follow a life path as said by a astrologer rather than by what the child loves to do. Ithu thanda unn thala ezuthu …atha padi nadanthuko….that is ridiculous. creativity will not flourish where there is no love or passion.
That’s actually a really good post,sir.A true astrologer will never say this will happen or that will happen.He will only say you have choices as such in front of you.It only provides guidance.I don’t know whether you thought so deep into it,but that’s the wisdom of the ages contained right there.
We choose life.Hats off.
Wind Shear, 20 knots clearing, 30 knots coming down south. Will it be an obstacle?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=Z&time=
ACC is still with LLC. Good sign.
Guys, Guys!!!!!!
Good News, Good News
ECMWF Deterministic model out for the day. System towards TN.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012112800!!/
Laddu!
Vorticity and Divergence weakened little, may be the interaction with Andaman lands.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=dvg&zoom=Z&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=Z&time=
Wind shear is strengthening over South Bay.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=Z&time=
This Anti-cyclone is expected to move North into Madhyapradesh after 30-Nov… this will be good for upcoming S-E Bay LOW.COLA model now suggests that the present circulation will become eleongated from North to South during next 2 days .And suggests a strong circulation will pop from this over S-S-E Bay on 1-Dec… this circulation is expected to track West from 2-Dec.
s tis may allow the system to strike ap – gfs
yeah..but anything can change in next 2 days. it may strike North TN if the same condition does not change
This model also forecasts moving towards west to TN on 04th.
tat forecast is based on gfs only
lat gfs
I saw this site in the morning.
both nogaps and gfs forecast are same this time.
nogaps hasnt updated since yest.and nogaps is the worst weather model
but ecmwf is more accurate than anything else. now they have deterministic model which is updated today have shown that the system approaching north of chennai.
Vorticity forecast.
NCEP laddu…
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F28%2F2012+00UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ASIA&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=192&areaDesc=Asia&prevArea=ASIA&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
moving towards AP.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F28%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ASIA&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=216&areaDesc=Asia&prevArea=ASIA&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Well organized clouds in Bay of Bengal, but not moving to our coast due to high pressure some models predicts cyclone no use of cyclone to tamilnadu or andhra.But Chennai want only strong low pressure will give up to 40 to 60 cms rain for us.But these year Monsoon started October 17 but still Chennai not received very heavy rainfall these year .Monsoon failure for Chennai, but heavy rain these year for deltas region. They getting 126 cms so for (Southwest monsoon + North East Monsoon) ={46+86} Chennai A.P =57+39 =96.We need at least 50cms to normal monsoon.I think its very difficult to Chennai.
u r spot on..
december forecast…
@hr649,
Look at this model.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/consensus/fcst/archive/12112800/41.html#track
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=522773411068793&set=a.392138630798939.99333.131603176852487&type=1&relevant_count=8 Well Partha- look at this model..
I could not open since facebook link is blocked in my office.
Will go home and see.
Nogaps predicts the system as a cyclone hitting somewhere between Central and North TN on 3rd or 4th.. Lets c how it unfolds.
Log on to weather of india site..You will find it.
Partha-Are you not getting it when you click the link ive posted??
no facebook is blocked here
One thing i am sure is that even ENSO conditions could not be predicted for shorter period by any of the meteorlogists in the world. It keeps changing frequently.
ENSO neutral conditions in west equatorial pacific and it is going to continue as such. This will not trigger much impact to us.
But another important and positive change is that the SST over west indian ocean is higher from 28-30C. This may create an impact i guess.
This is why the CPC website was confused in forecasting the south india from 05th to 11th December.
Changes in ocean is too fast.
IMD had forecast saying this time NEM will be excess on 18th October. That is another positive note to be taken care.
Losing hope on rains day by day. NE monsoon is all but over 😦 Hoping against hope for some good rains
there will be nothing to lose hope if u r not expecting anything..
So don’t expect from NE-Monsoon – an unpredictable one
Last 12 yrs of north east monsoon rains in millimeters
Average rain of yearfor North east Monsson for chennai 875 mm
2000 – 395 (failure)
2001 – 1079 (+21)
2002 – 985 (+12)
2003 – 311 (Failure)
2004 – 572 (Failure)
2005 – 2108 (+248)
2006 – 893 (+2)
2007 – 626 (-18)
2008 – 948 (+6)
2009 – 910 (+4)
2010 – 758 (-14)
2011 – 852 (-1)
2012 -470 stiil waiting for december counting
@Vinoth–By Dec 31-2012st it would read-Chennai-1025mm….Hope it comes true..
no comedy please………..
@Raijin, just wait and watch whether its a comedy or not..Gut feeling says that would be the reading..
u r expecting around 55 cm….it is impossible…
We will have three spells till 31st and im hoping to reach the said 1025mm….NEM will be Never Ending Monsoon from 3rd till Jan 1st week.
A low-pressure area has formed over Andaman Sea on Tuesday and has been put under watch for intensification straight away.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that the ‘low’ would become ‘well marked’ by Wednesday.
NOT PROMISING
But prognosis given out by a number of global models for subsequent phases does not indicate spectacular growth or intensification.
These models, including that of IMD, see the system as breaking up over central Bay in the face of fierce head winds.
The offspring circulations may wallow in the central and south Bay and manage to trigger scattered rain in Tamil Nadu and isolated showers in Kerala.
Odd US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System forecast sees them converging to set up a minimal cyclone off Tamil Nadu coast by December 1.
wind forecast for current low…
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/12112800/30.windswath.png 56kts!!!!
Atlast LPA is possible to reach TN. Then there should not be any wind shear along the coast. It should go south of chennai, then we get that rain bands over us.
My god start from the scratch.
what if the outer bands have no rain?
if LPA goes south we will get rains, if it goes north then think of last week.
jon,sel,partha
ithu enna pudhu kathai….why sudden heavy buildup?
Hey Guys
ECMWF is out for the day. Forecast says laddu.
Ensemble & Deterministic model suggest laddu.
The most trusted model.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!144!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012112800!!/
Laddu or Halwa? everything will be clear by Dec 1st
Animated convection, clouds moving to NE.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/irloop/24hr/asia_pacific_irloop.html
TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY: Sivagiri and Papanasam (both Tirunelveli Dist) 3 each, Rajapalayam (Virudhunagar Dist) and Mylaudy (Kanyakumari Dist) 1 each.
ANDHRA PRADESH:Nil
KERALA: Nil
KARNATAKA: Nil
CTT.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htm
parthasri Your animation picture shows north east but its going to srilanka and south tamil nadu and deltas region not looking good for Chennai
look at my IMD forecast above.
Omg, how many of u aware of dec 12 cat 3 cyclone??
I saw it in TMD site. but not trusted due to long range forecast.
r u aware of jan 26th republic day cyclone??
Jon,
This is too much to believe. Very long range.
Due you know about December 26 boxing day cyclone?
Raijin, HR649, Vortic, Jon and Others…….
IMD GFS,
SAYS LADDU!!!!!!
YES, YES, YES, YES
See LPA near Gulf on 05th. All forecasts are promising that too from IMD.
MSLP
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_mslp.htm
Rainfall
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
850MB – High Velocity over chennai
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_850wind.htm
One of the wettest Decembers to begin in 57 hours
u 1st update ur prediction in contest page
not possible KEA, dont try to fool us.
y partha, even kea is so optimistic , y u r so pessimistic in not believing in him
There is surely a rider in your optimism.I can’t believe you actually said that.
think +ve, hope this happens !!!
everyday the roads will be wet because of the dew drops…Am i correct kea?
Fluctuating reports on Tendulkar’s future
Some say he has told the selectors to decide
Some say he has to decide
Some say his kids has to decide
But always others decide what he has to do.
on,sel,partha
ithu enna pudhu kathai….why sudden heavy buildup?
This is what we do.Maranthiteengla?
still suffering from amnesia because of the dry november
Shhh Apppaaa ippove kanna kattudhe…innum System nerunga nerunga enna agumo
Hi all
Don’t believe in kea words…He is trying to confuse us to win the December contest toooooooooooooo
No,no.I think he knows better than to kid aroun in the matter of rains,this year especially.With the frustration around,People would eat him alive. 🙂
I believe, Kea account was hacked. It is not our Kea posting.