436 thoughts on “November expected to end with record low rainfall in more than a decade

  1. Ya.20-30 knts of shear wil affect any system… Wen the impact of hpa reduces, shear wil reduce…. exception seen in sum system,wer wilma in n.atlanti intensified at 40-50knts of shear wich is really unbelievable..

  2. Sel,

    Forecast from IMD says the western disturbance will come into effect from 28th onwards.

    Now NW/W winds are prevailing over Indo-Gangetice plains at lower levels.

    Lets wait for next 2 days. I think there is a change in shear.

  3. I had in mid Nov stated my gutfeel that End Nov to End Dec is going to bring a bountiful and I will stick to that stand ..Kea- I am with you on your optimistic outlook for Dec..Nogaps seems to be a model which supports our optimism at this juncture.

    • Sel,

      I cant believe this!!!

      The twins are visible on 01st Dec 2012.

      One in East Bay and another one is near SE bay.

      Due to more divergence these 2 will merge and become more marked on 02nd over SE bay and move in West direction towards Nagai – Cuddalore area.

      HPA is also favourable for us from 30th which will reduce the wind shear over south india.

      This time chennai cant miss.

  4. Storm Bopha current 4.4L & 155.8LO. 35 Knots.

    Forecast for 90 Knots in next 5 days. Moving in NNW direction, moving towards south china sea. The intensity is like Thane.

    http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP262012

    Moving towards low wind shear zone.
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

    Upper divergence is huge.
    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=dvg&zoom=Z&time=

  5. CPC global outlook for next 2 weeks will be out today. Till 04th they said it is going to be below normal rainfall.

    Now from 04th to 10th can be updated today. As per the latest developments they should forecast more rains.

  6. Tropical storm Bhopa intensifying rapidly , excellent inflow nearly all directions.The system lies below the self induced anticyclone over the top which is producing excellent outflow and low shear. The shear is below 5 knots in its path.SST is very much conductive for the further development.The storm would explode in intensity as it is nearing very low shear area.The system is showing curved bad pattern with intensity over T3.0.Wind speed could be around 45-50 Knots.

  7. Next four to five days:

    Increase in Barometer pressure more than 1010MB.
    Down in Humidity
    Down in Dew Point Temp.
    Down in Night Temp.

    due to moisture suck up by bay system.

    Enjoy the climate in the mean time.

  8. Partha and ranjin, The GFS showing heavy precipitation to the north of srilanka due to a low to the west of srilanka,The Purple patch in GFS means only heavy precipitation and not the actual location of the system.Closed contour lines only represents an actual postion of the system.

  9. The Disturbance near Andaman sea is currently under favorable atmospheric conditions provided by the self induced upper anticyclone to the south east of system.The system will develop once it completely enters into the bay.
    The system near srilanka is under unfavorable atmospheric conditions and its interacting with the land.

  10. @vinoth,ya..it wil head twrds tn coast.. Til yestrday, the forecast n track was based upon maharastra anticyclone,but now its likely to weaken,so model’s forecast based on tday wil bring the system closer to tn .. 12.30 ecmwf update pakkalam na..

      • Yes Vinodh,

        We need to wait for 3 more days, till 30th. Lets see the same model on that day.

        IMD predicts the HPA moves northwards from 30th. So the wind shear will also move away towards north.

        Secondly, the strong western disturbance from tomorrow has been forecast.

      • WD would not cause much of problem as far this system is concerned..Shear is created by STR as well as the self induced anticyclone .The self induced anticyclone will act in favor of low pressure or they cause high shear by staying away from the system.

      • Thought that WD will bring in more dry air toward north and central india which will cause the system to not to move northwards.

        Also the wind from west/northwest will reduce the wind shear across the region.

  11. results for the latest poll

    When will NEM start to withdraw?

    Does not matter, its not Chennai’s year – 85 votes (36%)
    First week Jan – 58 votes (25%)
    End December – 43 votes (18%)
    Mid December – 27 votes (11%)
    Next week – 24 votes (10%)

  12. The current low pressure near srilanka and south tamil nadu will move away or dissipate due high wind shear moves towards south.

    The upper level divergence is also weakening near srilanka.

  13. For system to be like baaz,it needs to be in low shear area for 24 hrs and move into high shear area. This doesn’t have much more time left.

  14. It seems that as of now the villians are increasing against chennai…it the trend continues, then our wait for rain might extends to the 2nd week of December…

    Cola also reduced the rainfall figures for december 4th

  15. lot of disturbances in the bay and also lot of disturbances around chennai for the disturbances to reach…

    what a pity?….what a pity?…

  16. Kea has asked us to get ready for one of the best December’s ever.Why are you people still doubting it?He predicted trace rainfall for November.Though none of us liked it,It did happen.So guys,We can atleast be optimistic.

    • chennai will get rains only if there is thunderstorms in the outer bands…Hope this time, the bad luck will not spoil the party…

      but latest cola update seems worrying when compared with morning

      • When you see the models initially forecast a system to form on a particular day but later on it takes another 2 days to start.

        That is how it is. Initially they said the rain will start from 03rd, then they have updated as 04th, now from 04th afternoon.

        We have to wait for next 3 days at least to get exact picture.

        Dont worry about amount of rainfall that will differ when it is a long term forecast.

        The rain starts at that date is the only confirmation as of now.

  17. Sachin is continuing to play to prove that he is also a mortal and not the socalled GOD of cricket. Sad to see Sachin is going the humiliation exit route. Barring Gavaskar, none had timed their retirement perfect.

    For once, Dhoni is aggressive and now adamant. Need a Ajmal or Duplesis to save our team. As of now, the team is going downhill.

  18. A Low is likely to form in the Eastern Bay, East of the Andaman Islands, by the 28th of November. Initially, on 29th, it will strengthen a bit, and move Westwards, and cover the Bay Islands.
    I see some hindrance in the further westward track. As of today, the SST around the Islands is 30-31c. The SST progressively decreases as we move west. And, the SST, as we reach the Southern India coast is 28c and around 27c in the NE Indian coastline. That, would deter the further westwards track of the system beyond 93E.
    In fact, there is a 40% chance, that the system could even move Northwards along the Myanamar coast.

    src:vagaries

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