247 thoughts on “Chennai facing a huge deficit

  1. Weather models-GFS and CMC predict a low near near TN coast starting in about 60+ hours.
    CMC says it may be another depression while GFS argues that it is atleast a depression.
    All models have changed their forecast since easterlies have begun.

      • That’s a bit irresponsible from IMD.We all know the difficulties involved in predicting the weather but saying it’s unpredictable is not appreciated.
        They can atleast give a general forecast for the region.

      • I have good reason to.See the radar.TS approaching Chengalpet.
        If you were to judge the weather going by current weather,especially for Chennai,you’d think we were living in a desert.

      • Yes,I am aware of it too.Hell,sophisticated weather models were made to look like guessing games.So,No wonder we were off.
        You’re free to say your opinion.
        Atleast we’re not like IMD:NEM unpredictable.

  2. IMD says rains for s tn upto 27 nov and

    4 days dry period and rain to start from dec… that being the ฤase kea Target of 85 mm is diffcult

  3. Shear line running through central India.We are placed just below the line with very low shear.If any system were to form,now would be the time.

  4. we missed two RDs !! One TS went through the north and then curved in to west chennai, another stood still 40kms south of chennai..

  5. Bangalore also staring at huge deficit ๐Ÿ˜ฆ
    City 697mm and hal ap 601mm since start of year.. though i hav doubts with hal ap that hal ap is under reporting on quite a few days ๐Ÿ˜€

  6. Once again,ECMWF was 100 % right. Other models followed ECMWF after 98B started weakening. ECMWF is the best. I pity BBC,getting everything wrong nowadays.

  7. Chengalpattu (Kancheepuram Dist) 14,

    Watrap (Virudhunagar Dist) and Toothukudi (Toothukudi Dist) 10 each,

    Usilampatti (Madurai Dist), Bodinaickanur (Theni Dist) and Virudachalam (Cuddalore Dist) 7 each,

    Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist) 6,

    Viralimalai and Keeranur (both Pudukkottai Dist), Maduranthagam (Kancheepuram Dist), Kothagiri (Nilgiris Dist), Ulundurpet (Villupuram Dist), Vellore (Vellore Dist) and Sirkali (Nagapattinam Dist) 5 each,

    Mettupatti (Madurai Dist), Tiruppur (Tiruppur Dist), Andipatti, Periyakulam and Theni (all Theni Dist), Ambur (Vellore Dist), Shencottah (Tirunelveli Dist), Kulithalai (Karur Dist), Panchapatti (Karur Dist), Thathiengrpet (Trichy Dist), Natham (Dindigul Dist) and Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist) 4 each,

    Samayapuram and Musiri (both Trichy Dist), Mahabalipuram and Kancheepuram (both Kancheepuram Dist), Paramathivelur (Namakkal Dist), Srivilliputhur, Virudhunagar and Rajapalayam (all Virudhunagar Dist), Ketti (Nilgiris Dist), Sendamangalam (Namakkal Dist), Sankarankoil (Tirunelveli Dist), Dindigul and Kodaikanal (both Dindigul Dist), Sholingur, Vaniaymbadi and Arakonam (all Vellore Dist), Coimbatore south, Valparai taluk office and Sulur (all Coimbatore Dist), Vadipatti (Madurai Dist), Vandavasi (Tiruvannamalai Dist), R.k.pet (Tiruvallur Dist), Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist) and Tirukoilur (Villupuram Dist) 3 each

  8. Everyone talks about normal NEM rains…thunderstorms…

    Anyone ever thought that the normal NEM rains were from low pressures?Without a low pressure,HPA dominates NEM and no rain is possible. Why is everyone getting disappointed when a system forms?

      • Only an intensifying LP is good. An intensifying LP will give 2x the rains from a depression. But once again,our bad luck,missing cyclones and deps often. Hope we get something like 2007 oct depression ๐Ÿ˜

      • no,it’ll be widespread. Our luck is spoilt by shear,by pushing away convection or not allowing anything to develop ๐Ÿ‘ฟ

  9. @jon

    yeah,whenever I saw the radar,there was a red spot. Might have been a nunga like 2011 SWM for them this year

  10. When i walked under park road in Anna nagar….i felt as if it is March….its is disappointing…considering its our peak monsoon season….

    For the first time kea is going to win the rainfall contest for a month.

  11. Trough of low pressure still persists.Another area of thunderstorms in south central bay which is gonna intensify the rain near srilanka and south TN.SST looks good, High shear to the north ,Favorable atmospheric condition lies south of it, no defined circulation has developed in that area of thunderstorm.It will be interacting with the srilanka soon.
    Models are coming up with a system by end of this month in Andaman sea.

  12. The vorticity of our future system is entering bay.

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

    Wind shear, shear tendency, Lower convergence and upper divergence are all favorable.

    The cloud mass associated with it also huge.

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sanew.htm

    If a system is bigger, chances of rain from it are more.

    Currently, A cloud mass with good convergence and divergence approaching Chennai. It will not be a system or LPA. But potential for rain is good. Already visible in PPI

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm

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  14. Sun News reported Petchipaarai Dam in Theni District is full(126 ft) consequent to heavy rains in the past two days.

    When will Chennai lakes brim? Diwali month disappointed us. Lets hope atleast Xmas month will bring ecstasy to Chennai

  15. เฎ•เฏเฎŽเฎเฎชเฎฎเฎŸ เฎ…เฎ‡เฏเฎฑเฎ•เฎฎเฎฉ เฎฎเฏเฎชเฏˆเฎ™เฏˆ เฎ‡เฎŽเฎ•เฎชเฎŸเฎฉเฎช

    • chengalpet is just 50 kms and it had recieved double of chennai this year. HPA , Shear had been enemies ofcourse, but can shear and HPA make such a difference between 50kms.Its pure bad luck.

  16. Rainfall in Tamil Nadu from Remnants of Deep Depression that crashed as a UAC near Mahabhalipuram

    in mm (min 40 mm)

    Chengalpattu – 140
    Tuticorin Port – 113
    Watrap – 104
    Tuticorin – 100
    Madurantakam Agro – 98
    Vedaranniyam – 89
    Bodinaickanur AWS – 83
    Olakkur – 77
    Aliyar dam – 72
    Usilampatti – 70
    Bodinaickanur – 70
    Virudachalam – 70
    Kolli hills – 64
    Coonoor – 59
    Viralimalai – 50
    Keeranur – 50
    Maduranthagam – 50
    Kothagiri – 50
    Ulundurpet – 50
    Vellore – 45
    Sirkali – 45
    Pongalur – 45
    Alanganallur – 42
    Krishnarayapuram – 42
    Pegumbahallah – 41
    Mettupatti – 40
    Tiruppur – 40
    Andipatti – 40
    Periyakulam – 40
    Theni – 40
    Ambur – 40
    Shencottah – 40
    Kulithalai – 40
    Panchapatti – 40
    Thathiengrpet – 40
    Natham – 40
    Tindivanam – 40
    Perunchani Dam – 40
    Vaigai Dam – 40
    Manikandam – 40
    Attur – 40

  17. @mahesh

    Chengalpet has a wonderful south west monsoon. That’s why it’s leading. HPA is not present in SWM and shear is good during that period as it allows more multicells to form.

    • I had been a marine enginer sailed for 15 years , south china sea , north atlantic etc ….never one can enjoy showers at sea on a ship. Ship will roll 35 degrees left to right within few seconds. It will pitch forward and aft too. It will be like a roller coaster ride blindfolded. Once i had 7 seven storms in 15 days while crossing atlantic. better not to talk

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