322 thoughts on “Cyclone Mahasen in Bay

  1. Good morning.
    IMD suggest N.TN/S.AP most likely landfall.But I don’t think the system would weaken after CS status as they say.It would intensify further until it nears land.We’ll see.

  2. JTWC also doesn’t take the forecast beyond 20th.I suppose it will weaken considerably before that.It remains to be seen.

  3. Dry winds 4m sw (n.tn)may spoil the show,Since v r falling south west of the system,It may weaken if the system nears us… If it is 4m sum other direction,v may get benefited but unfortunately v r falling sw of system.. Dry winds r worst than low sst..low sst wil let alive for 12 to 24 hours,but dry winds wont ..it wil destroy the system in few hours…. Wish it shldnt happen.

  4. Come on people – look at where its located. Somewhere between Orissa and north Andhra Pradesh. And you people are saying this is for Chennai ? Give us a break !!!!

  5. Kalla kandaa naaya kanum,naaya kanda kalla kanum…. V r in tat situation.. V hav to wait till december to get highly favourable upper level environment but sst wont wait til then…some global models indicating above avg sst to continue all along ind ocean till peak winter…lets c.

  6. Last december,It was hot n dry for 2 days bfore the arrival of thane…so Present conditions shld get fade away, or else cyclone wil follow the unwritten law of chennai..

  7. Last year thane was a unique one… Upper level factors gave a full support. Unfortunately sst din support, if sst was favourable it might hav been turned into super cyclone ,or atlantic hurricane status. It had such a warm core ,and showed cirrus clouds like a tail around it ,tat v seen in cyclone sidr ….

  8. till IMD not name it as cyclone

    21-11-2012/0530 13.4/83.0 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression

    it little bit aways from chennai

  9. Good Morning. We have likelihood of cold dry air enveloping our Mahasen and weakening it. But Mahasen is not going to get affected and going to remain isolated from it. The way Mahasen intensifies shows this.

    If it intensifies in to CAT 1, the chances of minimum TC hitting Chennai is possible. We have to watch for intensification. So far, so good.

  10. Mahasen is for chennai.. No doubt about that… I’m little bit concerned on the Increasing shear in the south that is is pushing the dry air to the centre of the system..

  11. YajurAdithya, blue dotted line denotes decrease in shear,.and continous white line denote increasing trend… Dark navy blue for 5-10 knts, green 15-20..yellow n red- above 20knts

  12. Yajuradithya,decrease in shear favours intensification.. Actually warm air 4m system and cold n air near chennai getting mixing up each other.. Tat cold air wil destroy the thunderstorm tat develop around the system..

  13. Rapid intensification might occur anytime.It has possibility to show lot of fluctuation.If it intensifies enough,we can worry less about dry air.paakalam.

    • The deep depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal moved westward and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of
      today 18
      th
      November 2012 over eastcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 16.0
      0
      N and longitude 88.5
      0
      E, about 950 km
      east-northeast of Chennai, 600 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 520 km southeast of Paradip. The system
      would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move slowly west-northwestwards during next 6 hrs and west/westsouthwestwards towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts during subsequent 72 hrs.
      Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of
      the system are given in the table below:
      Date/time(IST) Position (lat.
      0
      N/ long.
      0
      E)
      Sustained maximum surface wind
      speed (kmph)
      Category
      18-11-2012/0530 16.0/88.5 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep depression
      18-11-2012/1130 16.2/88.0 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep depression
      18-11-2012/1730 16.1/87.3 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm
      18-11-2012/2330 15.7/86.5 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm
      19-11-2012/10530 15.2/85.7 65-75 gusting to 85 Cyclonic Storm
      19-11-2012/1730 15.0/85.0 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep depression
      20-11-2012/0530 14.5/84.5 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep depression
      20-11-2012/1730 13.8/84.0 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
      21-11-2012/0530 13.4/83.0 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression

  14. This system cannot survive in Bay. It will intensify into a cyclone by evening and stay so only for 24 hours. It will start to weaken after that as the cyclone will head south

  15. system lies to the south of anticyclone under moderate shear .The dry air coming from TN trying to wrap the system but still has not reached the system visible in water vapor channel.The system is showing regular central dense overcast of 1 degree latitude with banding feature .The intensity should be close to 40-45 knots.
    The forecast is expects the system to loose strength as it near the coast .It has to more to do with the lesser water vapor(dry air) rather than shear.The thunderstorm are not widespread in this system as the water vapor is not abundant in that area.If it could gain some good strength now it will hold for a longer time as it nears the coast.

  16. Dry air is nothing but an air without water vapor ,if there is no dry air no matter how much air gets lifted it will be unable to develop thunderstorm as clouds wont form due to less water vapor.If there is no clouds then the rain rate will decrease drastically which will decrease the wind speed and the pressure will go up.The whole system will collapse in matter of few hours.

      • I am taking about dry air in general not about the current system.Even there is moderate amount of dry air gonna reach the core, then system will have tough time.

    • No matter what the shear value going to be if there is no water vapor nothing can be done.Only thing that could save system at that time would be high SST as it could supply some vapor but if the dry air is extensive then its difficult for the water vapor to develop widespread around the system.

  17. We can see dry air surrounding the system towards West and SW near Chennai. Also we can see the Pacific is feeding our system. Need not worry about the collapse. It will slightly weaken during landfall.

  18. Pressure 993.5 according to a different satellite.Vmax 53.
    But the mean cloud temperature is increasing.Not sure if that’s a worrying factor.

  19. Is there a southwards dip yet? I find it hard to believe that it can dip that dramatically… Anyway IF it does dip I wish it weakens to a deep depression so it will linger longer over chennai… Cyclones are useless

    • It will probably weaken.But cyclones are never useless.We are yet to see the true fury of a cyclone.That’s why we’re set like this.

      • sudharshan and karthik – let me rephrase that – useless for chennai. Some unknown, possibly transitionary, factors work to either cause them to miss or pass through without yielding much rain. Its like Rs 10 Crores is never “useless” but if we are never going to get our hands on it, might as well hope for a Rs 10 L ๐Ÿ˜‰

  20. THE VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL CAUSE A WEAK INTENSIFICATION, BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
    OVERCOME BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

  21. unwritten law of chennai states that “nee evlo periya appataker ah irunthalum,chennai eh cross pannanum na adakki vaasikanum…same law also applicable for the area falling from pulicat-mahabalipuram

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