Some rain can be expected from mid/late next week as there is a chance of monsoon revival. Meanwhile cold nights will continue for a few more days.
Some rain can be expected from mid/late next week as there is a chance of monsoon revival. Meanwhile cold nights will continue for a few more days.
KeaWeather Archives 
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
90.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 90.1E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 162204Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDERNEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS WITH EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY
THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
14.5N 90.1E, moving south west
Moving twds TN
As of now moving towards orissa…
The less we expect,the more it will rain..Can anyone post the exact rainfall data of NEM 2005 spell wise–..We had a min of 6 to 7 spells of rain that year starting midnight of Oct 27.(.2300 mm..approx..) One helluva NEM..
Raja, cheers..
It has moved NW 😦 …. I think the system is drunk and doesn’t know its route now.. But it has for strengthened to 20 knots…
rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012
Thick convection http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc12/IO/98B.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20121116.1030.mtsat1r.x.vis1km_high.98BINVEST.15kts-1010mb-136N-898E.100pc.jpg
Good morning all no due today but Still cooler
foreca.mobi/7d.php?l=101264527
Why has foreca moved to December now? Lost hopes or typo.
Intense convection building in n around it., koplikuthu doi..
kulayai adiyela urundu enna panradhu, koil vasalela poi urulanum
Excellent find.wow.
Plum laddu. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indian/southern/vis/LATEST.jpg
what do you mean by plum laddu? and whether the storm in bob will have any affect on tn coast more particularly chennai
system is well organized and strengthening now…wherever it makes landfall, it will gives bountiful rain…lets hope that chennai will have that plum laddu
TOI SAYS POOR MONSOON BROUGHT IN CHILL OVER CHENNAI… ALSO REPORTS NEM WILL BY NEXT WEEK
15.2 N 88.9 E
AWAY FROM TN
Moving W-NW
I think the system is going in for a loop.It won’t move further north above say,16.5.After looping steady SW will be seen.
so no chance of rain for tn or chennai because of the storm in bob
Nothing can be predicted now.If it loops and moves SW,We will get rains.
SE* .sorry.
Hi All,
Good Morning.
Vorticity shows the system intensification in Bay. It is raining over sea. No use.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Wind shear is strong over north. Not possible for system to move north.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Also now it is around 700-800KM ENE.
Exactly.North movement will only be marginal.Steady N movement not possible.
Upper air divergence is low and not widening, system deepening.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=
As suspected,this will mostly turn out to be another cyclone.It’s path is as if it wants to intensify.Clocking a lot of hours in the sea.May be even a severe cyclone/very severe cyclone.Whether it will be beneficial to chennai is entirely something else.
if its intensify as severe/very severe cyclone and goes somewhere else, the chennai will be in deep trouble
See,I know it may too early to predict things right now,But TN has the highest probability of landfall for this system right now.N.TN more so.
Considering that TN is in hpa how systém will hit..or else systém has capacity to get pass ridge
jtwc has upgraded the chances of formation of tropical cyclone to ‘Medium’
As of 03:00UTC(8:30 IST)
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CONT=asie&CREG=iiir&BIG=1
System will cover entire BOB. SW,SE,EC,WC,North
Chennai Nunga
MAX 29.9, MIN 19.3 (-4)
where is PJ, vinodh ???
taking their end of monsoon break!!!
COLA & Foreca predicts some rains from 23rd & 21st.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
chennai ws slightly colder than coimbatore..
Chennai’s min 19.3
coimbatore 19.5
Partha sir,pls dnt post any wrong info.. new comers hav to learn something.. sory to say,u r trying to say sumthing but 70% of the post 4m u are mostly wrng … If the divergence at upper levels is greater than the convergence at the surface, system will intensify….currently the divergence is higher n not lower…
Selvan,
What will happen when there is an LPA?
The divergence will be more or not.
If you say that iam 70% wrong then you have to justify…
System pulling clouds.Well-defined circulation.
When the system intensifies the convergence will be more than divergence.
CTT.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/iso.htm
Few clouds touching -80 according to rammb.
Upper level divergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=dvg&zoom=&time=
Lower level convergence
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
The circumference of divergence is becoming less. This is the sign of the system intensification.
System moving south west and weakening due to HPA.
From 24th there is a fresh easterly wind arrives.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/India?over=arrows&symbols=none&type=cloud
excepted path after reaching north…
Low lies over east central and adjoining sw bay as per IMD morning bulletin.
Expected to intensify into Depression in 48 hours.
i think this appeared in yesterday’s night report as well
The min. temp recorded tis early morning:-
Kolapakkam – 18
Kattankulathur – 18.6
Chembarambakkam – 18.9
Meena – 19.0
Nunga – 19.3
Avadi – 19.5
Poonamalle – 19.5
Guindy – 19.2
Ooty – 7.1
Kodai – 9.5
Hosur – 9.8
Coonoor – 10.2
Tirupathur – 13.2
Valparai – 14.5
Dharmapuri – 14.6
Vellore – 17.3
Salem – 18
Neyveli – 18.6
Comibatore AP – 19.5
hosur readings always looks suspect to me.. i hav seen it go to even 6-8 degrees in peak winter when bangalore will be at 12 or so.. and i hav been in hosur and i never felt it tat cold as the temperature indicates..
Since the moisture in air and humidity is more we cant feel that much.
Even in chennai it is 19C for the past 2 days but we don’t feel that much cooler like what we have the same temp during Dec and Jan.
so, BB-11 moving NW…surprised
http://rajesh26.blogspot.com
98B is roaming like anaathai. Very Pathetic to see. No use to any of the country.
2 more weeks and victory is mine
It will be like last month..
98B will dissipate due to strong HPA along TN coast. Also 98B will have to be stationary till 19th then will start moving towards our coast slowly and dissipates over the sea itself on 21st due to strong HPA presence along the coast.
http://www2.tmd.go.th/~mm5prd/
will it rain or will help easterlies regime to resume in TN
Yes, this system will help to strengthen easterlies.
Is U. Yadav playing as a specialist batsmen? 42 overs and not a ball bowled
This series in itself is very pathetic.Why make England play on Indian pitches?They can’t play spin if their life depended on it.We can’t face England and Australia pacers on their pitches.We play the rising ball like a school kid and they do the same with the turning one.It’s a horrible match up.
so u r watching the match closely??
i have not switched on the tv since Tuesday, ATP finals repeat between Federer and Djokovic
this make mockery of ICC test ratings….because top test ranking fail to perform in all the countries… i think only aussies and WI of 80’s can be considered as world champs because they dominated for more than decade or so….
It looks like consolation prize!
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/rain10.htm
There is a system forming over SE bay on 07th.
http://www2.tmd.go.th/~mm5prd/
The same is going to cross TN coast on 15th.
http://www2.tmd.go.th/~mm5prd/
Another one on 24th.
http://www2.tmd.go.th/~mm5prd/
Crossing Myanmar on 30th
http://www2.tmd.go.th/~mm5prd/
19.5
19.4
19.3
what will it be tonight?
Nearly 17.0C
19
Partha sir convergence is something tat deals wit low level, n divergence with upper level….. If UL Divergence value is more than convergence value , then ther will be intensification with intense convection build in case of system .
Selvan,
I did not talk about the strength of Convergence and Divergence.
Strength of divergence will be more during D or DD or TS.
I was talking about the circumference.
Once the system get intensified then the divergence circumference will be limited and If it is in case of LPA the divergence circumference will be more.
That is what i have explained to Raijin yesterday.
12.12.12. The end of the world!
http://www2.tmd.go.th/~mm5prd/
????
this look something intersting it show landfall in nagapattiam
if it happens it will be good
The latest satellite picture.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nhacsatimg.htm
clear sky dry for TN
Forecast for tonight will be 17C.
FORECAST FOR CHENNAI CITY AND NEIGHBOURHOOD:
For next 24 hours: The sky conditions would be partly cloudy. Surface wind will be strong and gusty at times. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 30 and 20 degree Celsius respectively.
For next 48 hours: The sky conditions would be partly cloudy. Surface wind will be strong and gusty at times. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 30 and 20 degree Celsius respectively.
Source IMD.
hate to hear this line too often.. ” The sky conditions would be partly cloudy “… tey shld use different sentence
Hr,
they have said the minimum would be 20C.
what a shame, they are playing safe.
It is going to be below 19 tonight, it will be atleast close to 17C.
Meenambakkam 30.6 & 19.0
Nungambakkam 29.9 & 19.3
Forecast No HPA from 23rd.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
No.u check ur prev comments,u hav said divergence is low,so system wil intensify… In anycase of system,divergence wil cme into play….
I was about to say the divergence circumference is low.
You can see my comments yesterday to Raijin.
It was slip of the tongue.
Slip of the finger
Low near TN & AP coast on 21st, and weakening in further movement.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F17%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ASIA&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=096&areaDesc=Asia&prevArea=ASIA&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Why so dry in peak November i DON’T KNOW THE REASON what is the the problem wind pattern is not coming because of nilam cyclone its changes why so dry when will monsoon receive please answer
Neenga therinju peseringa la illa engla kalikiringa la?
http://goo.gl/IVNvD
most probably easterlies will resume next week….
Bro! i have a question…you have mentioned that easterlies will resume.. but when did it actually stopped?? the high pressure over central asia will drift its dry/cold winds to the warmer low pressure ocean through out the season rite??? correct me if i am wrong.. 🙂
Heavy rain is back from 01st December.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F17%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ASIA&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=348&areaDesc=Asia&prevArea=ASIA&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
temp is increasing already touched yesterdays max 29.8 may reach even 32.
Not possible. This will be the maximum due to high HPA.
temp increasing 1 c per hour definitely will go up.
for the past 2 days if you see the temp was touching 29.9 in the morning around 10.45 to 11.15 but then it has dropped to 28.5 due to change in wind pattern from NW to NE.
The same thing will happen.
Today its still rising at 1.12 – already up to a Max of 30.4 – dont count out 32C. It maybe risky to predict rain in Chennai, but 32C you can never ignore the chances.
Another example that HPA gone from 23rd.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hgfs_mslp.htm
what is parameter is used to define… say like 1006mb
1010 is high pressure.. 1008 is low..
Atmospheric pressure is the force per unit area exerted into a surface by the weight of air above that surface in the atmosphere of Earth (or that of another planet). In most circumstances atmospheric pressure is closely approximated by the hydrostatic pressure caused by the mass of air above the measurement point. Low-pressure areas have less atmospheric mass above their location, whereas high-pressure areas have more atmospheric mass above their location.
The standard atmosphere (symbol: atm) is a unit of pressure and is defined as being equal to 101.325 kPa.[2] The following units are equivalent, but only to the number of decimal places displayed: 1013.25 millibars or HPa.
Wind is initially accelerated from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure.[42] This is due to density (or temperature and moisture) differences between two air masses. Since stronger high pressure systems contain cooler or drier air, the air mass is more dense and flows towards areas that are warm or moist, which are in the vicinity of low-pressure areas in advance of their associated cold fronts. The stronger the pressure difference, or pressure gradient, between a high pressure system and a low-pressure system, the stronger the wind.[43] Thus, stronger areas of low pressure are associated with stronger winds.
We may get Thunder Showers from 21st.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
Very Heavy Rain on 03rd. From 31st to 03rd we may face the return of monsoon.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F17%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ASIA&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=384&areaDesc=Asia&prevArea=ASIA&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
31st ? November has only 30. R u talking abt dec 31s?
Sorry sir, 30 not 31. I still feel that we are in October.
Many slip of tongue sorry slip of finger(s)
u are a very optimistic guy! may the lord bless u. I wonder if ur meaning 2013
i seen your picture its not touching Chennai its full of raining in nagai district, tiruvarur dist. partha
wait and see sir, it will.
NEM till 16th nov excess is only to extent of 9%…this year…
No body is opening door for this system except Chennai coast. But when it reaches Chennai, it is almost dead
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/120hgfs_850wind.htm
due to this it will enable the HPA to weaken in TN… help in to bring winds from sea .. can create a enabling situation to resume NEM
15.7 N 89.2E 30 knots latest position, already a deep depression, IMD has to update soon
This is the peak time of the day. The dew point temp is 16.7C.
We can expect the same in Min Temp during mid night nearly 17C today.
looks its intensifying rapidly compared to its standard(spent so much time at sea)!!!!
moving exact NW
This has become useless system to any land – N,S,E,W.
we need to wait, cannot go into a conclusion at the moment, as shear will decrease N & NE & NW of the system
But the HPA over the coast is high boss. Not possible for this system to intensify further.
the shear tendency is decreasing to the NW, N, NE of the system upto the order of 20 Knots. Let us wait !
No water vapour near chennai. It is crystal clear image to Chennai and North TN.
Expect more chill weather.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm
Its in a low shear zone of 5 to 10 knots but shear is very high abt 30 -40 knots North & NE of the system, we need to wait for the further movement, looks likely to hit AP coast, just a guess !!!!!!!!!!!
Humidity is down to 41%
Actual Temp 29.9, feel like temp is 29.7.
Dew Point 16.3. Expect 17C by tonight.
Dew Point further down to 15.1C.
using dew point to predict the minimum temperature at night does not work particularly well for most nights, unless it is clear that fog/condensation will form on a particular night.
Pls refer the link
http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasci/wea00/wea00346.htm
Pls use this link to predict minimum temp with dew point.
http://www.ultimatecitrus.com/brunt.html
pls note its only a rough calculation and minimum may be equal to min temp only if there is 100 % RH and fog forms in the morning during High Pressure or it is equal during LPA and raining when RH will be near 100%
Now moving NE after NW.Ayyo.What is happening?Mahesa thambi,enga pa pora?
Cat,
I dont think the dew and min works this way. The table is ok but this cannot be 100% accurate.
Please wait and see.
My simple equation is – When humidity is less, dew point is low then there is not moisture in air, also the hpa is high means the condition over the area is dry, it has to bring down the temparature based on dew point temp.
IMD sattelite bulletin….
VORTEX OVER EC BAY CENTERED NEAR 15.5N/LONG 90.0E (.) INTENSITY
T1.5 (.) CTT MINUS 79 DEG C (.) ASSTD BKN TO SLD LOW/MED CLOUDS
WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER BAY BET LAT 13.5N TO 20.5N
EAST OF LONG 88.0E ADJ ARAKAN COT (.) its already a dep according to imd!!! 😮
Partha I think already I had mentioned this point in previous post and answered.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Looks like an intense tropical storm 😮
It should be atleast a depression by now.
ellam nalla than irukku….which place will be the luckiest one to receive this monster laddu is the billion dollar question
Patience and belief always pay dividend.
Enna inikku aala kaanom?
Mahesan pada paduthararu.
Mahesan has to come around the world right ? Thats why he is going around
System is at 15.7N, 89.2E. Movement past 6 hrs NW. It signifies start of U-turn.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012
System intensifying! Will be D by evening and JTWC may give cyclone forming alert any time from now.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
See the whitening at the center.
JTWC has given cyclone formation alert
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io9812web.txt
High.Just like I expected.Rapid intensification after reaching TC stage is expected.Sure.
Thanks.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012
Moved NNE 👿
Defying all the models,predictions…Not sure where this is going to end up.Maybe a disastrous surprise or a complete disappointment for us.
Or a consolation prize.
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/rain10.htm
Right from my childhood,if there was one thing I despised,it was a consolation prize.Same with this,too. 😐
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io9812web.txt
hehe
Low yesterday night,med today morning and now high. Nambalukku varadhu polrakke.
Be happy that it moving some what West also. If it would have been NNE, then I would have felt bad. Taking U-turn.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=24&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
😮
ECMWF never betrayed us.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=98B&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
Let’s use this from now.
maddy
where is that page WEAKENING FLAG ON/OFF? 😀
that’s only for TS/more. This has a CDO/eye 😀
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?PHOT=yes&ATCF_BASIN=io&ACTIVES=12-SHEM-95S.INVEST,12-SHEM-96S.INVEST,12-IO-98B.INVEST&SIZE=full&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=1&ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=1/&CURRENT=20121117.0657.mtsat1r.x.vis1km_high.98BINVEST.30kts-1000mb-157N-892E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&ATCF_NAME=io981&ATCF_DIR=1&MO=NOV&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2012&YR=12&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=98B.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/IO/98B.INVEST/tpw/microvap&PRODUCT=vis&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/IO/98B.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom&TYPE=vis&PROD=vis&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_zoom
OMG!!! It has an eye….
very small one
what joking GUYS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
yes we could see eye
Rain or no rain both bad for me.
If it rains, I will lose the contest but will prove those ppl right
If it doesn’t, then the opposite.
Do both are good and bad
See what happens when there is fair weather. It turns people to philosophers because nothing happens in the weather front so they must break the monotony. Any way well said Kea !!!
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
NNE,now NNW.Testing our patience.
The circulation forecast for tomorrow. No further movement i expect.
http://www.weather.gov.sg/wip/c/portal/layout?p_l_id=PUB.1023.14
its rapidly intensifying.
If it is to intensify then will not move. I guess for next 48 hours.
That is what happens when it clocks so many hours on end in the bay.Expect many more surprises.Will fluctuate in all aspects.
So far NNE.
http://www.weather.gov.sg/wip/c/portal/layout?p_l_id=PUB.1023.15
NNW movement. It reorganized to N and moved NNW.
If you compare this 2 images you can see it has moved predominently N then NE.
It has moved NW actually
Intensifying into Cyclonic storm in next 24 hours is Medium. Which is upgraded now.
It is high now.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io9812web.txt
OK. JTWC not updated.
its updated already
Imd says it will move towards north TN
in today’s report
It has moved NNW looking at sat animation.
IMD issued.
It is centered at 15.5N and 90.0E from 1050KM east-northeast of chennai, intensified into a Depression, would intensify into Deep Depression and move slowly north westwards for next 24 hours, then will move west-west southwestwards towards South AP and North TN coast during subsequent 48 hours.
One more alert,
Rain or thundershowers would occur at many places in TN & AP from 24th.
WSW movement !! looks dangerous
Interesting match in Dhaka. 90 something to win for Bangladesh, 3 wickets, final session
Wind around the system is 25knots. Sea surface temp remains 28 to 30 which is more favourable.
latest from IMD mid day report…
the well marked low pressure area over eastcentral and adjoining southeast &
westcentral Bay of Bengal has concentrated into a depression. It lay centred at 1130
hrs. IST of today, 17th November 2012 near lat. 15.5°N/ long.90.0°E over eastcentral
Bay of Bengal, about 1050 km eastnortheast of Chennai, 750 km eastsoutheast of
Visakhapatnam and 650 km southeast of Paradip. The system would intensify into a deep depression and move slowly northwestwards during next 24 hours. It would move west/west southwestwards towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamilnadu coasts
during subsequent 48 hours.
IMD says it will become DD come close to SAP and N TN
IMD,lattaa vandhalum, latestaa varaar.
Its positioned at 15.7N, 89.2E approximately 746 km from Kolkata with max. Sustained winds 27-32 kts and SLP 1000mb. Formation of Tropical Cyclone is “HIGH”
Wind shear http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5shrZ.GIF
Stronger winds on the eastern half of the system. Will make the system move towards NW.
System Movement.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_display.cgi?ACTION=Latest_Photos&ACTIVES=None&MOSAIC_SCALE=20&SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=io&ATCF_YR=2012&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2012/io982012.12111706.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2012/io982012.12111706.gif&MO=NOV&CURRENT=20121117.0900.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.98BINVEST.30kts-1000mb-157N-892E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&CURRENT_ATCF=io982012.12111706.gif&ATCF_NAME=io982012&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2012&STYLE=frames&YEAR=2012&YR=12&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=98B.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/indian/southern/microvap/dmsp&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc12/IO/98B.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=gif
if this system comes near chennai around 24th, then my trip to goignt o get postponed by another 1 week … yeahhhhhh
This system will weaken when nearing the coast.
how significantly will it weaken.. if we get very heavy rains and strong winds that is enough.. which even a DD or even a Depression can produce…
Wind shear in the north bay is still strong.
Some gap in central bay, paving way for the system to move in south westerly.
Important thing is that the wind shear around the system is weak, this will allow the system to develop.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Our patience and resilence is going get paid off in terms of a BIG laddu.
Ohja 5/45 and Ashwin 3/80 !! 😮 😯 😀
England 191 all out and 44/0 in f/o
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-vis.htm
Looks much better than 80% of the cat 1 cyclones in BOB
Yes Sudharshan,
Wind is also not flowing against the system. This is one of the rarest formation. It is hard to feel that we are not going to get benefetted much.
will bring us rains… when is reaches TN coast as predicted by imd…
System will be stationary for next 48 hours.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=98B&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
System current location.
15.62N, 89.20E
The wet air from SE strengthening the system. Lower level convergence in getting deeper and divergence getting stronger.
Blue is convergence, Yellow is devergence.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=98B&invest=YES&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0