minimun has alread gone below 21 and more cooler weather is forecasted in the coming days. Meanwhile revival of NEM is not possible until next week.
minimun has alread gone below 21 and more cooler weather is forecasted in the coming days. Meanwhile revival of NEM is not possible until next week.
KeaWeather Archives 
Already looking forward to our share of SWM and NEM2013.
There seems to be no end to the dry spell in the wettest month of the year.
still hanging on to 10 degrees, I hope city records atleast 13
still 10 degrees at devanahalli..
Hindu reports quoting met officials saying chill to continue in chennai… monsoon to revive in few more days….. hope continuous…
unless if the system dissipates we don’t have chance of monsoon revival or it hits chennai.
System moved west ?? http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/maps/2012-11-15_TopChart_01.jpg
Oh no..steadily moved N.
u have to say it as very very very steadily
11 degrees at 7:15 in the morning…
Nilam has almost finished off NEM… like last year we need cyclone only in by end of dec …
Another 20*c day here…. It would gone to 19.8*c in meena…
12.1 n 91.1 E Moved North East
more north-east movement…is it going to burma as some one said?
It was me around 5 days back
no kea…its going to take some turn…what turn? i forget… as someone said and will hit chennai as monster laddu as predicted by Nogaps
now i remember….its u-turn…i hope it will come true
finally its moved up to 13 degrees….
searching for nandhi hills report.. cant find it.. has met dept there stopped working?
Next oné momth is going to critical for NEM… if we are able to get two spells good rains during thar period… that will ensure aleast normal rainfall… post dec 15 is NEM ending phase.Not much hope…2005 is an exception Not norm… freinds any veiws
Cyclonic activity at the beginning of month has greatly affected NEM chances of revival-The Hindu
s…thats true…still we are waiting for monsoon revival after nilam
In the following link
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
there are 2 in the west pacific
97W.INVEST(?)
25W.TWENTYFIVE(this one forecasted to come into bay)
or the both are same?
if both are same what is invest? invest -> investigation?
ya its the short form for investigation
Nogaps still forecast monsterous laddu hitting N-TN and S-AP. They are still confident…
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Unnoda forecast mattum unmayachuna eppadi irukkum
Nogaps has more gapsnu solluravanga ellarum
Nogaps really has no gaps nu solluvanga
rajesh sir has also predicted to hit TN on 15/16 as depression…
today is 15 and 2moro is 16…it has to travel almost 10 degree west…that is impossible and so rajesh sir prediction will failed with respect to the dates
.
But might his prediction will become true somewhat late
EMMWF forecast the low to be near to chennai coast at 21st
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=168&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
EMMWF-> ECMWF
This is what i have forecast yesterday, someone has downgraded my comment.
BBC expects minimum to touch 17 this weekend
@kea
thnks. I received ur invitation
@rajin both are different.. 97w is to the east of philippines and 25w is in south china sea.. And ya invest is the short form for investigation..
waiting for the official min max temp.. Nunga should be around 20.5 and meena around 19.8 to 20
WD won’t allow system to enter north bay as well as Indian coast
System has to either die in Central bay or else move south west once again
little chance for south-west movement…
add to that as per current situation
TD 25W will die down soon and hence JTWC issues final warning
thats good to us?
TD 25 W may not enter bay as depression.
thats good to us?
Nothing is good, if hpa occupies us
already this waste hpa have swallowed most part of out monsoon.lets hope for the revival at the earliest to avoid the repeat of 2004 summer
Track n intensity of 98B, Everything wil be clear in another few hours….
A western disturbance would affect western Himalayan region from 16th onwards.It will die down around 18th to 20th. Then only system will move towards indian coast
ooty recorded 7.3*c as min 🙂
I am not disappointed by the failed NEM so far – this cool and pleasant weather is a refreshing change for Chennai.
but its not needed now.. Ter is time for colder days
Like when – Jan 1 to Jan 15? Why shun this cooler weather hoping for cyclones which barely provide 2 days relief from the heat? Unless it rains steadily for 1 week there is no point – I am happier with this weather which provides more relief from the blistering heat and humidity
If you r not disappointed now, u will regret it in summer
Chennai leaves little room for regret in summer. If you dont expect the worst everyday you only have yourself to blame.
Eventhough system nears TN coast, only south TN will benefit because of hpa over N.TN
One month to go for normal withdrawal of NEM. Looks like already withdrawn.
We will definitely get more rain this NEM. Expect not more than 125-150 mm
that too possible in december only..
WD: Western disturbance is the low pressure system that originates over the Mediterranean sea and moves eastwards.This causes rainfall in Iran,Pakistan,and India and snowfall in some parts of India.
Hi All,
I am surprised to see people talking about withdrawal.
Pre-Matured!!!
Its is the truth not prematured one…Now everyone tries to accept the reality
Talking about rain in 20 degree celcius conditions looks premature for me
In earlier comments Have said coming oné month will be crtical .. atleast two spells of rain will ensure normal avg but to happen NEM should be back soon
Our wishes are always different from reality. But we have accept the reality.We have already moved our rain target from 10th–>15th–>20th–>27th–> ?
Let us wish for some rain before end of season
Raja, ya u r rite,…v cant xpect rain in tis cold conditions,.. Minimum shld be around 23-24.. but Today i din notice the dew drops,only winds r cold …. i think conditions r improving.
13.4 in bang city… very disappointing… BIAL at 10.3 degrees minimum.. HAL AP 13.1..
Does anyone know what the situation is with our reservoirs? Do we have enough to last till August?
How is it compared to a year back?
It is a million dollar question.
I am really sure that we have support from 2 sides.
1. Veeranam – Lake capacity is approx 48 feet, Water level is up to 45 feet.
2. Krishna – Recent rains in AP has brought up the water level and they are reserving for summer. We will get this water by April or May.
if go by approx calculation , the present levels will last till jan , add veeranam and krishna we may last til march or april.
Nemili desal plant will add another half a month if it goes onto production.
So we may hit crisis by april or may.
Remember max usuage starts during hot weather..march onwards. if we bring in new areas to be supplied by metro water then we may hit crisis even earlier. The only option is if they start rationing from jan onwards. water supplu once in two days. Chennai will be back to traditional ways…it will affect real estate prices and investments…lets see NEM supports us.
with 50 % water capacity Chennai may have to beg AP for water. My concern would be ground water level and sea water seepage
Metro water will start rationing , once in two days , then 3 days etc , ground water is dangerously low alrready, sea water will enter in all coastal parts of city and omr. city will lose its real estate value , investments will drop. lorry tanker accidents will go up. hate to see chennai like that. hope NEM gives back something
Compare to. CHENNAI s.TN dams are close to 70% capacity like manimuthar and papanasam servalar dám..had Not been NEM s TN would Have faced drought
System moving faster toward Myanmar coast and it will dissipate in next 2-3 days.
Nunga MAX 29.9 & MIN 19.5.
KEA,
You have recorded only 22.4 as MIN TEMP?
IMD – no forecast about min temparature so far. What a tragedy.
OMG !! The min temp. in TN :-
Nunga, Meena – 19.5
Puducherry – 19.6
Cuddalore – 19.3
Tiruchi – 18.7
Coimbatore Ap -17.4
Salem – 17.3
Vellore – 15.9
Dharmapuri – 13.3
Tirupathur – 12.2
if the min didn’t increase, then condition will get worse and we might have to face the repeat of 2004 summer
Coonoor – 8.7
Kodaikanal – 8.3
Ooty – 7.3
Top 5 min temps in TN. 1.ooty – 8c. 2.kodaikanal – 8c 3.Connor -9c 4.Tirupattur – 12c 5.Dharmapuri -13c ……
ooty – 7.3
Coonoor – 8.7
Kodaikanal – 8.3
Ooty – 7.3
Sum nearing lanka n sum heading NE.. http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec12.png
but nothing is for chennai as of now
If the current situation doesn’t improves then the situation will more worse than the 2004 summer. The reason is one and only one
Increase of population in and around Chennai city because of the boom in IT sector. So it will going to be really hard to satisfy the water needs in 2013 summer than it faced in 2004 summer
Nothing abnormal about the cold wave….it’s usual to have a cold wave in mid November during the dry phase of NEM….in 2009 there was a cold wave around Oct 20 itself…since NEM was late!!.
Sel
u said in ur earlier comment that track and intensity will be clear in next few hours. does it means that by next update around noon?
Kolappakam – 17.6*c,
SRM – 17.9*C,
Avadi – 18.6*c
Poonamalle – 18.8*c
Its NEM but it feels like peak winter.
The min. temp in and around TN :-
Kolappakam – 17.6,
SRM – 17.9,
Avadi – 18.6,
Poonamalle – 18.8,
Nungambakkam, Meenambakkam – 19.5,
Cuddalore – 19.3,
Puducherry – 19.6,
Tiruchi – 18.7,
Coimbatore Ap -17.4,
Salem – 17.3,
Vellore – 15.9,
Dharmapuri – 13.3,
Tirupathur – 12.2,
Coonoor – 8.7,
Kodaikanal – 8.3,
Ooty – 7.3,
Other Stations :-
Tirupathi – 15.2, Hyderabad – 14.8, Bangalore – 13.4, Mysore – 11.1, Munnar – 8.3
Lookslike KEA will sweep this November Contest
No. Still have little hope that Nogaps prediction might come true and kea will be the first one to be out of the contest
Now WP25 has dissipated. 98B has got nothing to disturb it. Instead it is drawing clouds and moisture from the dissipated 25w. It will do for some more time and start its SW journey.
HPAs raises BP!
how u r sure about its south-west journey?…can you explain me
Because most of the models taking it to SW direction. Consensus! Apart from it I have my own theory(trying to develop it! Which is unconventional and pseudo scientific approach). So far it proved to certain extent. It is in micro level approach not macro.
its always a good feel, whatever may be, if chennai gets benefit from this in terms of rainfall
Ya..by 12.30 ecmwf update will be out….so it wil b clear.
Marghazi in Ippasi. Last year same time it was again damn cold. I remember I was in Mayuram for dip in Cauvery and super chill.
Atleast then there was a system coming in 3rd week of Nov. and was not unduly concerned about the cold then. It came in as forecasted as well.
There are too many flip flops in models…Have not seen this level of uncertainty in models (in my decade of following them closely) as much as it is now.
Almost clear..it wil divide into two and a part of the circulation will start to track s-sw 4m East central bay twrds chennai… Anyway v wil get confirmed with 12.30 ecmwf update http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india4.144hr.png
We have this in line with Chennai.
Because of the models, pessimism is running high. This is month of November. Any D will become DD or TC. When D itself not formed, how the models can accurately predict its vortex and based on this gives a track? That is just a speculation based on the existing conditions. Which can change like their tracks.
Which vortex they will use out of this three?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=.
The truth is, conditions are favorable to form a depression in bay. We have only a LPA spreading across SL to Andaman
as sel said, there is lot of possibility of getting splitted in to parts and each will i have it’s own movement in direction. Hope one part will give rains to chennai
I still feel that we have lot of rains left in this NEM. This may be an unusual November, but as i said because of 2 planets existence till 18th is the only disturbance as of now.
I cant accept that it is a failure of NEM.
After 22nd we have rains back. This time the rains will continue till Jan first week.
This has happened many times during NEM season.
Do not lose heart at this moment.
unga vaaku unmayana sandhosam
Vorticbob, maximum spinning part(vorticity) is west of andaman… So tat point is taken as LLC
That is the obvious conclusion. But all these three vortex should combine together to form a D. Or as per your post it will split. But I have never seen that happening earlier. At the most they try to merge or weak ones split away and dissipate. These are only based on long time observations without any scientific validity.
Wind speed is also less till 22nd.
To support Parthasri35 planetary connections..posting a comment I read in one of the sites:”For India, the brief spell until 10th September would be followed by a disappointing 2-month long dry spell. This is of crucial importance in making decisions on agricultural operations. However sufficient rain will be received late in the season as Mercury and Venus are coming together again on November 18th and this will last until 18th Jan 2013″
Useless connection. AP received heavy rain during Nilam. Where is the connection between that and planets
Raja,
If you read in depth they would have said specifically between 01st and 18th Nov 2012.
but we have received above average rainfall in october
In Tamil, there is as saying, “Mottai thalaikkum Muzham kalukkum mudichu podarathu”.
Guys– I just posted a comment which I saw in a site..these are not my views..was trying to look at points which could offer us some rays of hope..do take it in your stride and add to your optimism index..tks
My home in Tambaram West surrounded immediately by forest and hills with thick vegetation was damn damn cold……sure shot 17degrees….within 500m of going away from the forest ..cud feel the increase in temp acleats by 2 degrres near Tambaram gst…
surely it shld be around 17* da.. ur nearest center is kolapakam and it recorded 17.6*
This is that blog – Non random thoughts.
http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2011/08/makkal-tv-debate-on-tamil-new-year.html
98B current position is 12.1,91.1 => 13.5, 91.1
moving north in very rapid rate and it crossed chennai latitiude
yet to start it south-west movement
but the intensity is still 15kts
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO982012
someone is pulling in the north it seems. in 12 hrs it has moved 3.6 degree north
I already said, its gaining strength from the NE clouds… U can see in the Sat image also…
Sehwag on 97*
99* now
Hi Guys,
This is the exact blog i read 3 months back. Check it out.
http://jayasreesaranathan.blogspot.in/2012/08/planetary-connection-to-el-nino-some.html
Someone cited an astrologer’s prediction here before onset of NEM that Chennai and TN will be flooded during monthend of October and there will be a excess NEM this year.
Ivanungala thirutha 1000 Periyar vanthaalum mudiyathu!
Vadivelu stylil sollanumna ” summa irukkiya illa vaayila knife vittu noondava”
That blog seems to be a political one.
Sehwag : 23rd Test Century !! 2nd vs England
sehwag reaches his hundred in his usual style by hitting 4 in 99 to reach 103
These are the lines i was mentioning, this is what happening now.
The forecast was made few months back, even meteorologists could not.
In the current rainy season, there is going to be one such opposition of planets during the dry spell we predicted between Sep 10th and November 18th, Mars comes in opposition to Jupiter around November 1st. This is in addition to the damaging presence of Sun in between Mercury and Venus. Thus we have more than one factor that is related to a dry spell which is going to last till the middle of November.
· Presence of Mars in Leo during the rainy season reduces rain-cloud formation. It must be noted that Mars was in Leo for quite some time – right from the time of the expected date of arrival of Monsoon. This is also a single strong contributory factor for dry conditions and perhaps a contributory factor for the rise in temperature over the Pacific.
· Mars in front of any planet including the Sun scorches the earth (in astrological terminology we call it as Mars winning a planetary war.)
· Since Mercury and Venus are the sensitive planets helping in rainfall, outer planets namely Jupiter or Mars or Saturn moving in front of them in rainy season causes famine like situations.
· Location of Venus is more crucial for causing rains, while Mercury aids in favorable winds. When Jupiter moves in front of Venus, famine-like conditions prevail. When Saturn is in front of Venus, there will be less rainfall. When Mars is in front of Venus, hot conditions will prevail.
· In the season of dry-spell in October – November, we are going to see Saturn and Mars in front of Venus. This reduces the formation of rain clouds. Thus we have 3 crucial combinations for lack of rainfall coming up in the peak of rainy season. (Mercury – Venus closeness disturbed, Mars – Jupiter opposition, Mars and Saturn in front of Venus). It must be seen if El Nino intensifies at that time. If so it must be because of the planetary influence only.
edho solla varanga andha postla…namakku thaan onnume puriya maatenguthu(naan vera geographyla week). Eppadiyo mazhai peidha
sari
Namma Auto rickshaw mirror’a turn panna vandi run augum sonna kooda ok. Aana adutha theru Auto rickshaw mirror’a turn panna thaan vandi run augum sonna eppadinga?
rains will be back from 20th but wont be heavy
can we get atleast 100 mm till end of november?
im hoping for atleast 200mm
pora pokka patha competiton illamaleye kea win panniruvaaru pola…enku remba bayamairku
http://weathergaines.blogspot.in/p/ecmwf-model-forecasttc-forecast.html?m=1
IMD says no rain atelast till 22nd
Guys ! Forget November. Let us see whether any rain left out in december
If it doesnot rain in november, is this worst november ever in NEM history?
From 2000, only there are 2 times november have recorded below 100mm
2003 – 85mm
2007 – 95mm
and in 2012 – 35.6mm(15 days left)
Hello Vithasasen,
It is not purely an astrology, it is a scientifical calculations adopted by ancient astrologers.
How could an astrologer predicts Ammavasai and Pournami for next 100 years that too perfectly without any satellites?
This was done through panchangam for the more than 2000 years.
Satellites have been invented only in 20th century.
Then how they predicted these happenings with just a paper and manual calculations for more than 2000 years?
There is a proven research that even astrologers have predicted rains.
Based on their advices the agriculture was done. They would advice farmers to sow what seeds and what season. This is been followed even today.
Don’t say anything blind, and don’t follow anyone blind.
Before thinking of anyone’s statement, you think from your perspective.
That is Murpokku Sindhanai.
Following someone blindly is called blatant faith in Tamil “Mooda Nambikkai”.
Sir,
I have seen and enjoyed the similar dialogues in ‘7am arivu’ film itself.
Nodoubt, I agree and am proud myself too about our ancestors intelligence in calculating the Ammavaasai and Pournami.
To that I wish to quote another one from the film ‘Angels and Demons’ that “Religion is flawed because men are so’
My anguish is that even in these hitech world with sophisticated satelites, meteorologists are unable to predict the rainfall and landfall of cyclones and how could these astrologers predict rainfall . Some astrologers went to the extent of predicting the future of country after some party come to power. How ridiculous that was.
Sorry for bit off-topic. No offence meant to anyone. Rain rain come fast atleast to kill these off topic quotes.
Since there was no development in technical point in India we are struggling today.
By using these methodologies we should have developed technologies predicting weather.
Due to british domination for more than 150 years and none to encourage our traditional values after independence we are still developing, developing, developing.
I also saw that movie 7 am arivu, i accept we have great traditional practices which is copied by most of the countries in the world. Those practices have been left out by us after some time.
Don’t forget this strong message:
India is the oldest civilized country in the world. We who thought the discipline and dignity to the world.
Like elsewhere in the world, Indians too were interested in planetary constellations, etc. for various reasons. This led to a lot of original work done by Indian mathematicians (much like Newton’s development of calculus because the study of planetary motion necessitated it). Some of it was as early as during the Vedic age. Then came the likes of Aryabhatta and others. Subsequently there was lot of cross fertilization between Arab and Indian mathematicians and our next door neighbor Kerala can boast of a great Math tradition. So, one should be careful not to throw the baby away with the bath-water.
For a brief history of Indian math, see for instance,
Click to access INP01_histofmaths_ram.pdf
For more on this subject, I refer the interested reader to the popular books written by George Ghevergese Joseph.
Nur der BvB!
Will Rain Come ?
http://in.weather.com/mapRoom/mapRoom?locID=INXX0202&locType=1&lat=13.0615&lon=80.24783&from=today&lev=7&type=sat&title=Regional%20Satellite%20%28clouds%29
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!Asia!chart.gif
Vorticity of system in Bay.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Strong wind shear presence in Central and North Bay.
30 to 40 knots. System will not move further, it has to come to TN coast only.
This system will be near to coast by 21st or 22nd. The rain may not be heavy.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
Where is guru?
HPA is strong till 25th as per ECMWF deterministic models.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012111500!!/
Easterlies movement at present in East and adjoining central bay.
http://mscweb.kishou.go.jp/sat_dat/img/reg/sat_img.htm
5 days forecast, small pillar from 20th.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
10 days forecast, consistent rainy days from 21st, little heavy from 25th.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
Small pillar from 23rd as per COLA.
@raja
From 2000, only there are 2 times november have recorded below 100mm
2003 – 85mm
2007 – 95mm
and in 2012 – 35.6mm(still 15 days left)
35.6 mm also from West as Thunderstorm and not from sea. I have never seen such a november last 20 years
Do u still rely on this NOGAPS for 21st?
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
GFS model for the same day.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prec&HH=144&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0
Comedy of errors.
Look at the forecast for December.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/chennai/206671/december-weather/206671?monyr=12/1/2012&view=table
partha sir…enna decemberkku jump ayiteenga…Appo November?
unmaya sonen..
Clear India insat pic
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Observations recorded at 0830 hrs IST on 15.11.2012
CHENNAI WEATHER
NUNGAMBAKKAM MEENAMBAKKAM
Maximum Temperature ( ºC )
29.9 30.1
Departure from normal
1 1
Minimum temperature ( ºC )
19.5 19.5
Departure from normal
-4 -4
Forecasts beyond 10 days is not reliable
Beyond 3 days!
We would have born in Andaman for getting rains from both sides and both monsoons.
Raja,
You will get bored seeing rains for 6 months. Then you will start feeling that you want to be in chennai.
LOL!!!!
Atleast, we can save time by tracking systems.It will rain anyway
Nowcast report.
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/nowcast.htm
At Tea India 250/3
Gambhir out for 45
Sehwag out for 117
Sachin out for 13
Pujara not out 68
Kohli not out 0.
Session Resumed
Guys,
You people were saying no rains in November and it is unusual november.
See Minimum temp fell 4 degrees below normal. This is also unusual in November in the past 110 years.
Accept both the facts.
pora pokka patha competiton illamaleye kea win panniruvaaru pola…enku remba bayamairku
jupi nilamaye ninaicha thaan romba paridhapama irukku..
mazhai peiyumangurathe sandhegama irukku…ithula five 100mm+ days
Dry day, Dry month, Still blog is active. How come ? In anticipation of rain during next week ?
some expressing frustrations, some forecasting future rains
Whether Nov will lost its spot to Sep and Aug. Even to Jan, i guess …