The dry phase in NEM continues in Chennai after Nilam’s landfall and few Thundershowers. Meanwhile, the Min. Temp. started dropping down, and also the possibility of rainfall depends on the path of the future systems.
The dry phase in NEM continues in Chennai after Nilam’s landfall and few Thundershowers. Meanwhile, the Min. Temp. started dropping down, and also the possibility of rainfall depends on the path of the future systems.
KeaWeather Archives 
Contest page updated in Forum..
http://chennaiweather.freeforums.org/november-2012-f14.html
and kea leads in all category !!
latest GFS, 2nd system’s landfall over Myanmar
latest GFS, no change… it comes closer to chennai and leaves
tis looks much better
I hope I am first to lose, but this is a very unusual November. Let’s see what happens
I’m starting to think you’re right.Pretty Unusual.I hope that the unusual part is explained in excess rains.Pretty sure we’re all thinking the same.
acc to ECMWF system wil come close to tn only by 20th
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=240&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Top recent commentators as on 10th Nov
Sudarshan – 168
Hr649 – 150
Parthasri35 – 141
Selvafun – 96
Raijin – 92
Nellaivel – 48
Karthikstorm – 47
the list will be updated tomorrow as per above and will stand till 25th
Really nice to know I missed out by 1 comment 😦
@kea, system kelambudhu 🙂
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CONT=asie&CREG=iiir&BIG=1
http://in.weather.com/weather/10day-Chennai-INXX0202
looks encouraging
dont worry, its just temporary.
Cola looks good for a resounding victory for me
Wont be totally surprised if we go all month without a drop of rain
where is dash?
Given up hope already I guess
Even ecmwf changed its track http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/ecmwfens/2012/11/10/basis12/swas/pslv/12112012_1012.gif
changed??
Jon,1st it was shown close to nagai-n.lanka coast but now it was in s.central adjoining sw bay…
NEM is erratic and it depends on 3-4 systems, and couple of easterly waves.No system is confirmed to hit TN coast. Every thing has to happen in 45 days. If any system crosses coast, dry period for 5-10 days .Hence IMD plays safe by not predicting NEM unlike SWM
I do agree NEM is erractic… nilam has been spoiler this year… only savings Grace for nov is that s TN got good rains where Swm was flop… last year we had thane came at fag end of NEM..by that we had normal rains but Not this time around
cyclone nilam strictly followed steering current (500hpa winds) n skipped the ridge, and at the last moment,upper level anticyclone moved into w.central bay tat made the way towards chennai!! http://www.imdpune.gov.in/weather_forecasting/Images/month500a.gif but now the steering winds r not in favour for chennai, so the only hope lies within the ridge n position of upper level anticyclone getting placed .. http://www.imdpune.gov.in/weather_forecasting/Images/week500a.gif
Sel ? Your confidence level now for this system? “Something is telling you this time ?” like Nilam
with so much of confusion,we should stick to the original predictions made and wait for fate to unfold..never seen different models with different intrepretations as what we see now in GFS,Nogaps,ecmwf,cmc…NEM will remain a mystery
I Have gut feeling that IMD will Have last laugh…it says LPA forming by 14 …l
Raja,thala Ipo ethum sollrathku ila…. Cola update 10.30ku varum,17th/18th appom ridge enga iruku ne pakkanum…
Our only hope is that the anticyclone comes to the place where it was during nilam,or else laddu will become ant mochifyed
Already we have come down to hope? What has happened to the very very wet 2nd half of November?
2nd half is yet to begin…
Just follow BBC, nothing for Chennai
I don’t care about the current path being forecast as if it is an LPA/D it would give us rains like 2010 december D. But if this becomes DD/TS, then nothing would be in store for us.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Look at this,damn. Chennai might get something.
Have we not learnt our lessons yet.. What happened to Nilam.. so many models and so many different forecasts.. Ultimately Nilam had its own say.. all these models are only probabilities… and when they say its a forecast we shud also see what probability of that event happening.. that is something not mentioned in the model forecast.. and these models change as and when the parameters change… these models are yet to forecast reliably the parameter changes…
This is more than enough for Chennai
Storm is around 5 N and 90 E
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
So many thunderstorms in ARB
Jon..vandhuten pa..came with a lot of hope..but……..onnum solradhukilla 😦
‘Mahasen’ Chennaiku nalla mazhai thara vendum endru Mahesanai vaenduvom 🙂
As hours go by, GFS is improving for Chennai Rains
It gets so so so close to TN coast…..we surely get some rains out of it, if this the case
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=138&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
sudarshan, i did not know u posted the same link
no problem 😀
he has become famous for making coincidences..
Atleast today we Have cooler weather …fairly cooler winds blowing
Seeing all the models latest run, it looks more and more better for Chennai
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=144&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
?? 😀
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmcens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=144&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
This is interesting,2nd system hitting chennai
Towers are missing in the cola forecast.
http://www.kea.metsite.com/2012_10.txt
Kea.please change 63 kph to 72 kph.
Someone disliking each and every comment 😛
Might be idi siruvan 😀
I’m changing November prediction to 325 mm
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=gfs&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=144&focus=mh
Again,some guy is disliking everything…
8 dislikes 😀
now 9 😀 😀
I’m gonna break kea’s record 😎
Lol.Why suddenly downvoting?Who is that? 😀
Is this the record for most dislikes in a minute ?
I’ll get this past 30 to break record.
I’ll use 3 more browsers. I dislikes thrice and now 3 more times 😀
I broke the record 😀
tats a unbreakable record.. 😀 even if kea says there’l be no rain till next yr, its so tough to break tis record..
wats happening sudharshan !! 21 dislikes??
now X2.42 dislikes. Woah.
Wow!!!
37 dislikes,might be a wordpress record 😛
Someone/Some people is/are bored 😀
u jus made an half century… my contribution – 3 dislikes
😀 My contribution – 4
Half-century!!!!
Who are the 3 people who liked my comment ❓
It stopped at 50 😦
Someone give this guy an award.50 dislikes. *applause*
now 51 😀 😀
kea,you have a challenge.
Try to break my record for dislikes 😀
Maddy, i am in mobile so i cant like,or dislike… How come it touched 50?? Unbelievable.
I don’t know 😀 I made 4,hr649 3. Where did the other 43 come from?
I made 1 dislike when it was 13.lol.That’s all. Who is so jobless? ❓
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/indian_ocean_glw_00z.shtml
its pulling everything from Bay..
UKM model goes weird
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html
That’s the last thing we would want.Also chances of that happening are preettty low.
Ponting gone for a duck,he’s losing reflexes.
He looked terrible while batting.
Circulation is deepening slowly..
IMD sat image getting worse day by day..
8 known dislikes for my comment. Who made the other 43 ❓
This comment also ah..My god.I agree it’s a sunday.athukunu ipdiya..
why is it?
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Anyone else getting this microscopic sat image?
ya not the usual enlarged one
why is it?
might be a html error
now its fine..
Cyclone genesis
CMC
—–
1st System
CMC track shows a mslp of 990 mb and shows landfall close to north of Chennai on 16th
2nd System
To enter bay as a weakened storm on 17th, by the time 1st system would have made landfall
Some hope for us then.Thank god.
origin point of 1st systm resembles 1996 system… whch s shared by jon sterday..
its pure blue sky… with sun heating up… 80% chance of getting thunderstorms today evng… KR use say dis scenario… wen its blue and heat.. thunderstorms in evng….
Cyclone genesis
GFS
—–
1st System
CMC track shows a mslp of 990 mb and moves away from TN Coast toward Orissa on 18th
2nd System
It dissipates in Malay Sea 0n 16th after landfall
Cyclone genesis
NOGAPS
—–
1st System
NOGAPS nears TN Coast on 16th
2nd System
It dissipates in Malay Sea 0n 16th after landfall
Nogaps again firms up with Chennai landfall
on 16th
on 17th Chennai landfall
TMD predicts Machili landfall
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Nogaps says chennai
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
CMC says pulicat with heavy rains for chennai coast
From when can we start expecting rains from the system,then?Around 14th?
Maybe from 15th or 16th,currently it’s moving slowly.
But it depends how movement starts after 5 N.
Okay. *Fingers crossed*
same here 😐
November to December?
lol
ISRO’s new cyclone forecasting website “SCORPIO”
http://122.252.237.243/scorpio/
Amazing. But hope it is updated in time
awesome…
http://122.252.237.243/scorpio/
The scorpio archive is amazing
yes, the tracks and satellite image archive is amazing
I like the thane compilation.
Disclaimer: This is an experimental run. Cyclone position , Intensity and Forecast shown may be subject to large errors. Information must be used with caution.
but the design is not gud..
@sudharsan
just now noticed..why ur comment had 63 dislikes?
I don’t know 😛 I made 4 dislikes
idi siruvan alias thunderkid should be the culprit
yep,might be because I was talking abt him 😛
he would have gone mad after seeing kea’s comments yest nite 😛
My count is 8.
is there any unannounced contest going on for dislikes?
lol.. sudharshan’s record will be unbeatable..
Jiwanjot Singh 22 years old scores second big Ton in his first 2 FC matches
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/574024.html
http://www.espncricinfo.com/indian-domestic-2012/engine/current/match/574037.html
If he continues ggood form,they shoudl try him out in India A
If he continues good form,they should try him out in India A
it is his first 2 FC games of any format…he should play more before India A…thats my opinion
@sudharshan
I downvoted you 43 times 😛
who is this?
posted from National University of Singapore.. u knw anyone?
Singapore ??
is this blog for weather or like nd dislike…..making it boring
look at the pull by 95s and our sys… both gaining strength from westerlies..
Rainfall :-
TN, AP, Puducherry :- Nil
KARNATAKA: Panambur 5, Mani (Dakshina Kannada dt) 4, Mangalooru 3, Kota (Udupi dt) 2 and Mangalooru airport 1.
KERALA: Kozhikode, Thodupuzha (Idukki dt) and Neyyatinkara (Thiruvananthapuram dt) 1 each.
low temps :
Meena :- 22.9c
Nunga :- 23c
Kodaikanal – 9.9c
Delhi :- 13.9c
Kolkata :- 18.1c
Mumbai :- 20.2c
CMC’s track looking gud 🙂
Ecmwf still not clear…. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!Asia!chart.gif
If system maintains with current model’s track, then i would say cfs is one of the best long-medium range forecasting model… I remember It showed the system with similiar recurving track hitting bangla/myanmar on nov 2.. Same cfs, predicted thane way before 16 days…
There are lot of difference in all models forecast for this system.Track is highly uncertain.Only when it develops the forecast would become better.
ya.. So we’l wait for few more days.. cmc’s track is gud now.. Hope all models forecast the same path in comin days..
ya we have to wait for few more days.CMC performance in north indian basin is poor.
The circulation looks better.
the whirl shld be more stable from now.. And the 2nd system also doubtful of reachin our coast..
Too early to say anything about 2nd system
Ya..its better.I could c sum huge Convection building around it
Our Mahasen will grow bigger in size.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/img/sanew.htm
Unlike other recent storms whose intensity is severe and sizewise smaller. Better to grow bigger and have maximum t2.5 to t3.0 intensity. More widespread rains and less distruction.
Currently fighting out with VWS. VWS tendency is to decrease. Baby Mahasen will be active and kicking by tommorow morning. He may throw some rain bearing clouds towards Chennai by evening.
ECMWF looks interesting
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=144&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Jon,Enna athu,Reverse varuthu… Lol. Forming a big loop
no forecast is reliable as of now
Where is the invest now?
For those who are passionate to learn TC pyschology:
http://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev.fluid.37.061903.175702
Click to access art%253A10.1023%252FA%253A1007942712838.pdf
We can spend dry Novembers and Decembers as long as they lost by reading this:
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01431161.2011.596849
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Well defined LLCC
Indeed.
INFO from one of the link posted before:
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are well known for their devastation, mainly due to torrential rains, strong winds and associated storm surges, which cause flooding, soil erosion and landslides, even far away from the landfall location, resulting in numerous human casualties and enormous property damage. These disasters are particularly severe over the North IndianOcean (NIO), comprising both the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian
Sea (AS), as their coastal areas are heavily populated. In the past 300 years, out of all recorded cases of very heavy loss of life (ranging from about 5000 to well over 300 000) in the world due to TCs, more than 75% cases have occurred in the BoB andAS (WMOTechnical Report 2008).
Even if precautions are taken,the people in our country don’t want to trust the govt. and this results in a huge disaster.
That is because of predictions are wrong most of the time. Anyhow people needs to be educated. Apart from this, have you ever visited strom shelters and seen the facilities and quality of the food supplied? People even risk their life to avoid going there!
Contest updated and closed. No more changes possible
I asked you to change my prediction to 325 mm for nov total this morning….
ha ha, rules said it closes 11:59 pm on 10th
I imagine you rubbing your hands together and making an evil laugh as you type this.Ha ha.
How many of you think that the anonymous guy from twitter is jupijove? I feel it is him as no one would make a twitter account just to make 1 post in a blog.
i can find out, what time did he post
just scroll down. I broke your record with 65 dislikes today
its posted from national univ of singapore..
it is kea
❓ Any proof?
btw @hr649
How do you know he is from NUS?
he mite be experimenting since he got 30 dislikes for his comment yest
might also be jupijove….
Submitted on 2012/11/10 at 3:19 pm
I’m changing as well.
Rainy days : 9
24 hr : 105
100+ days : 1
Total rainfall : 350
I posted this yesterday and said 325 mm today
susaa ,i hav sent u a link through fb wich u asked
ok,thanks
Our Mahasen looks much healthier than that 95S
95S had been declared ‘dead’ today morning itself. RIP 95S 😥
But JTWC says it will revive!
Rainy days : 9
24 hr : 105
100+ days : 1
Total rainfall : 350
@kea
I posted this yesterday, 😀
So you have to change.
Kea,we’ve had 2 2mm+ days this nov. The storm which came early morning and the one in the night came in the same day,but according to IMD scale it is 2 days
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
Central tower cloud building in LPA centre.
If a HPA moves to the area west of andaman,then we would get direct hit.
Anyone knows where the closest HPA is?
Selvan, Sudharshan, Pradeep,
No models say this system will hit.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=168&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
No model is reliable for forecasts >2 days
CMC says close to chennai
you only quoted GFS
i saw imd, cola, foreca
CMC and NOGAPS predict sometihng good for chennai.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=144&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
Look at NOGAPS 😯 😮
Hoowwzaaat! 😀
But the projected path is very similar to our Nilam.So there’s that.
But that was toppled by shear,this isn’t
Strong HPA over central and east bay helps the system to cross TN coast as per NOGAPS
@sudharshan.. from tat guy’s ip address..
Keaweather has already lost the contest by predicting 3 rainy days + 20mm max and a total of 85mm. It cant be right since atleast one of the other 2 rainy days will HAVE to yield more than 20mm 😛
Yeah,I was about to mention it the other day.The math was wrong.
Ashwinds/karthikstorm
These are 4 independent contests. There is no math involved here. I am just making sure I have a chance in all contests to maximize my points at the end of the month
tactics?? 😀
kea,
no chance for you except in 2 contest as per the current situation(i hope u will understand which i am referring)
Oh,Alright then.
one way or the other he will be the 1st person to lose 😛
“I’m waiting “
disastrous forecast
http://foreca.mobi/7d.php?l=101259385
cyclones spoiling our monsoon 😡
sry tis link
http://foreca.mobi/7d.php?l=101264527
Yes,I was about to post as well..foreca and BBC ruling out rains atleast until 20th Nov..worrying
tomorrow night or day after tomorrow we may experience around 20 c or below 20 c and hpa likely to touch around 1013 to 1014. Thinks will change from 14th onwards.
Impossible to go below 24/25 during Deepavali
lets wait and see : )
no way… It can hover around 23c ly..
do we have any chance form the dark red spot area over srilanka.
http://www.pdc.org/atlas/?id=5992
*form->from
KR current dry phase because of that mercury or venus stuff that you were talking about earlier. when will that end by the way. can you tell us something about it .
is that one from KR i doubt…
i think, that was posted by partha sir
I don’t remember exactly who said that. But KR is the one who used to come up with these kind of stuff. weather we believe it or not its pretty interesting.
KEA,
Have you updated my latest prediction given yesterday?
s..it was updated properly
your’s sterday prediction is
—————————
360MM.
No of Wet Days 11.
Yes Raijin,
Thanks