With dry phase continuing in Chennai, Southern TN may have some rainfall today and tomorrow, meanwhile, the low near north coastal AP is weakening and will dissipate soon. Low temperature hovers around 25 to 26c in Chennai and Max. Temperature still around 32c.
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10263 views after a recent million…
Difficult to get ppl to post outside this blog
we’ll just try out that… for now we can have it for contests, or information alone.. I made u admin and founder there.. btw u got my PM in forum? if not check that..
Good morning people.Let’s hope we break the dry phase today atleast in the evening with a few shattered showers.I understand the no-rain part but what about the summer like conditions?What gives?
at least a cold weather will be preferable.. waiting for the NE winds..
Westerlies during SWM are cooler than NEM winds which are hardly ever pleasant
Why are you expecting anything other than summer like conditions? Other than some time in Jan, when it’s pleasantly warm, it’s summer all the time. No rain means no relief.
Woah.that was rough.truth hurts.
Just hope for an LPA which lingers for a week 🙂
can c sime clouds around in east…. cloud moving in from south east.. trees are srandstill.. no surface wind… hope its changing its direction
Presidential Election Results :- 18/51
Obama wins Connecticut, Maryland, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Illinois, Vermont, Missouri, Delaware, New jersey, leads in Florida..
Romney wins Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee.
Entry for the Contest can be updated here also .. http://chennaiweather.freeforums.org/november-2012-f14.html
since the list gets bigger here, it’l be better to post there.. else, post the entry here, the list will be updated there..
Happy ‘Jal’ day to all kea bloggers 😀
HP is moving up and a low near SL around 14th
Chennai’l be left out with little rain..
foreca forecast getting better
http://www.foreca.mobi/7d.php?l=101264527
Don’t know about foreca, but cola certainly looks better.
Now 2 mm from 1.5 mm
alas! we are talking about 1mm and 2 mm in NEM.
Correction: they are talking about POSSIBILITY of 1mm and 2mm in a couple of models 😉
ha ha 🙂
Ongoing mjo wave is strng enough to trigger sum activity in bay…..
Its raining in Karnataka…but nothing here….is it our NEM
in mm ending 8.30 am on 06.11.12
Aldur 65
Karkala 55.6
Aralasurali 51
Tanigebylu 48
Kanivedasarahalli 48
Channahally 47.2
Madapura 46
Kanakumbi 45.6
Kollur 41.8
Kencharahalli 40
Birur 39.8
Murugamala 36
Holur 32.1
Megaramakki 32
Kotagal 29.6
Iavatur 28.2
Somayajalpalli 28
Ganjigunte 27.2
Govinakovi 26.6
Nuggehalli 26.2
Chornur 26.2
Dibburahalli 25.6
Jamgaon 25.2
Kerveshe 25
Udevu 24.2
Baasuru 24
Channagiri 23.2
Mudigere 22.9
Tyagadabaji 22.4
Balehonnur 22
Attigundi 21
Jayapura (C ) 20.8
Basettihalli 20
Kadur 20
Hi All,
It is really irritating to see other states getting rains but TN is dry during this season.
I saw some low lying clouds coming in from West.
Morning was little cooler today. My skin has become dry suddenly.
Moisture in air is very less. We have to wait for some more time for rain.
It was a bit cooler than the previous days.. here temp. was 25*c
Nothing grt 4m cpc weekly forecast…
Partha sir, i too noticed it.low clouds wer 4m west to east.. winds n clouds always move twrds Lp 4m hp… tis clearly shows the presence of hp in tn.
IMD says “the upper air cyclonic circulation over Gulf of Mannar off south Tamilnadu coast persists”
Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli and Tuticorin districts got mild rains…Preliminary Rainfall figures in mm ending 8.30 on 07.11.2012 are as follows
Nainarkoil – 31
Kadaladi – 30
Radhapuram – 29
Tenkasi – 21
Sholinghur – 17
Rajagiri – 16
Tuticorin – 16
Bogalur – 10
Tiruppullani – 9
Thiruvattar – 8
Mallasamudram – 8
Kodumudiyar – 7
Pechiparai – 6
Tirunelveli – 6
can expect more rainfall figures from south side tomorrow onwards..
A strange thought…. is nature is compensating S TN now with rains . When it didnt get rains during nilam
My rain gauge is wet
some convective clouds seen entering into bay http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indian/southern/vis/LATEST.jpg
As of now there is no easterlies in TN.. then how come UAC formed near GOM bring rains to S. TN… any explanation
There is nothing strange about this NEM. I had said it in Jan itself, we r due for a failure. Who knows NEM 2012 could be a failure?
nem gonna have blast from 15th.have patience
Kea : Predicted before 10 months. First forecaster to do so
just be optimistic, we still have 2 months
Dry till 20th.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php
How do you infer that ?. It doesnot show above or below average.
see the clouds in nagapattinam http://instagram.com/p/Rty9KwSDbI/
sky looks bright.rain system on its way
ha ha ha. Don’t try this again
what ? cant get u
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/global-warming-to-hit-indian-monsoon-system-say-researchers/article4070712.ece
So, no pumping work needed in Porur. Find new job dash
Looks like rain clouds may approach Chennai from tomorrow
how?
Please remove the ship from Chennai coast asp as it is blocking NEM for Chennai
Ageed kea we are heading for law of avg ….as regards NEM…but verdict is yet to. Be out… hope for best
Rains lashing in Egmore inlast 15 mins
Rains in Pursawalkam too
Anywhere else is it raining….pls post
no rain in velachery and entire omr sretch till navalur
guindy is dry.. cloudy and dark now..
Raining in choolaimedu now….
still not in guindy.. but its so dark here..
Barack Obama wins election for second term as president…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/img/caz_chn.gif rain from those little TS
not even a drizzle in guindy…
its drizzling..
clear sunny sky in Santhome
Cheerup all.
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/F_574_CH-22.html
The t574 model more or less accurately predicted the Nilam cyclone from very beginning. More over cyclones in November occurs in pairs. That is what this model forcasts.
Also the probabilty of Depression becoming a cyclone is 100%.(Source: IMD Cyclone e-atlas page).
Already a mild vortocity is present around 4N, 94E.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Ofcourse, this vorticity may change continuosly. But it will persists and at around 10th may intensify to form an LPA.
Hope for the best.
Please correct the vorticity postion as 4N, 94E in my previous post.
By the way how to edit our post? Can somebody help!
only the blog owner will have the edit and delete the comment posted.
If you have that rights, then you can edit it
not the blog owner…the one who creates the post…can edit all the comments.
thnks for correcting me, but is it possible for all to create new post?. I think only if the user has the rights, he can create a post. Please correct me if i am wrong
@pradeep
is there any option for the user to edit their own comment alone in wordpress?
Yes but you should have full admin rights….
Thankyou all.
it rained here for 15 mins now drizzling…
No rain till 13th as per IMD NWS.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/168hGFSrain.htm
but in the previous post, it shows that until 20, there is no possibility of rain, usually dry prevails as per latest global hazard report
Cloud Movement from NE !!
Severe storms, quakes, volcanic eruptions: Is planetary change accelerating?
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2012/11/06/severe-storms-quakes-volcanic-eruptions-is-planetary-change-accelerating/
Wind shear.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=shr&zoom=&time=
moderate rain here…
now heavy rain here…
very heavy now.. !!
gunidy? no rain here in shollinganallur
yes.. now its jus drizzling..
Isolated rain today in Chennai. Scattered to widespread rain possible in next couple of days
0-10 mm is possible.. nd its 3mm now..
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/48hGFSrain.htm
Cloud movement from NE. Will reduce the heat atleast.
Wind shear tendency is increasing in Bay.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
is it good or bad, as i couldn’t understand the wind shear?
is there any such vertical and horizontal wind sheer?
Wind shear is a block which protects the winds to blow in the same direction.
This one is blocking the easterlies as of now since the easterlies are weaker.
Once the easterlies strengthens then this shear tendency will reduce and move according to the wind pattern.
As of now no chance of strengthening of easterlies.
HPA ridge is spoiling the sport.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!216!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012110612!!/
There is a system in south china sea on 13th. Which moves towards west. This may trigger the easterly winds in Bay from 15th onwards.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=GFS003&TIME=2012110700®ION=SEASIA&FCST=all&LEVEL=850&F1=none&F2=none&C1=hght&C2=tmpc&VEC=none
Lots of tiny spots in RADAR between Cuddalore and Karaikkal.
Water vapour is not visible.
Imd chennai: Lpa in sw bay near lanka… S.tn to get rain.
lots of bloggers are still optimistic regarding NEM 2012. that’s good to see. Hope rain returns soon.
lookin at ur prediction for tis month.! Any plan for revising it again?
Foreca predicts rains next week..will they be right?
http://www.foreca.in/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
Kea, nilam getting dissipated. so its slowly getting back to normal… Active mjo in s.ind ocean has triggered a mild impact in s.bay and so an UAC is formed…am sure tis wil bring Ne wind flow in bay… I wnt get surprise even if a system brews..
Decent rain in Nanganallur for 20 mins
Ther is a anticyclone in maharashtra at 850hpa level..it have to weaken,so that the flow will resettle…
After 15th we may get rains back. Till that time it is going to be in few places.
kea
it seems metsite is down. last updated is 9.56 am
Lots of Yellow spots in south coastal TN.
when those will come over chennai? need to wait another 2 weeks?
I am afraid to say – Yes
why yes? even after 2 weeks, is there only less chance for yellow dots over chennai?
That is why people from other places complain abt our heat and humidity, where else can u have a hot nov day?
enjoy the sun
when it’s scorching outside, how can we enjoy the sun, that too in november
Raijin,
Wind blowing from East. The heat will come down in next 48 hours.
Chances of light rain possible till 15th.
cloud movement from north east
kea metsite is down for four and half hours.
but no one have noticed from morning including kea.
Last updated time is around 10am
its working now
thnks kea
y ter is frequent problem
I am not in station.
I think the power wire to the PC is lose.
Rainfall figures in mm ending 8.30 on 07.11.2012 in Tamil Nadu are as follows
Shenkottai – 110
Nainarkoil – 31
Tenkasi – 30
Kadaladi – 30
Papanasam – 20
Needamangalam – 20
Ayikudi – 20
Jayamkondam – 20
Sholinghur – 17
Rajagiri – 16
Tuticorin – 16
Palayamkottai – 13
Bogalur – 10
Madukkur – 10
Valangaiman – 10
Perungalur – 10
Ramanathapuram – 10
Tiruppullani – 9
Thiruvattar – 8
Mallasamudram – 8
Kodumudiyar – 7
Pechiparai – 6
Tirunelveli – 6
Tondi – 6
@hr649,
WOW you woke up now???
nopes.. Was not at hme.. Any rain ter?
It has rained in few places in chennai.
ya it rained. Hw abt oragadam?
MID-Day Bulletin,
Rain/Thundershowers would occur over TN, KRL, CSTL KTK, Odisha and CSTL AP during next 48 hours and decrease thereafter.
Good one from IMD.
contest page updated.
As things stand today, I will be collecting 175 points by month end with 3 1st place and 1 2nd place
u r gng to be the 1st one to be eliminated.. Starting from ur 280..
100 likes for your optimistic comment over kea’s prediction
I wish gtaman will change his prediction to over 285, so that I can do a clean sweep
KEA,
Where is my name in contest for November???
We have missed your predictions. Can you please resend?
looks like chennai will receive rains from 14th night as per Norwegian Meteorological Institute
http://www.yr.no/place/India/Tamil_Nadu/Chennai/advanced_map.html
*good rains
do we really have to follow Norwegian forecast now?
Guess whichever model predicts rain is good for us
Looks like we have started getting NE winds now…. After a long long time… Hope it stabilizes soon and brings in our early morning showers…
yep, i think it’l be stable.. The noon shower was from north east..
@KEA… It has not been raining but why does your humidity scale is still at 100%?
Blame it on the lack of wind to dry the hygrometer. Expecting the humidity to come down tomorrow, provided it does not rain
It rained here at 10:50 am
how much it rained there?
Meenambakkam 15 mm. Might be more than that thanks to AWS fault.
will it be counted as rainy days or rainy days will be counted only if it rains at nungambakkam in case with our november contest?
only nungambakkam
Oragadam is dry.
Hi Raja
Another Ship named “Rathna” would have started the process of removing the ship named “Pradeepa Kaveri” from Chennai coast today. So don’t worry,
block of NE monsoon as per your worry will be eradicated by 2day. Cheer man
KEA,
My Prediction for November contests.
1. November 24 hr Rainfall – 125MM,
2. No of Rainy Days – 13
No of 100+ days = 2
What about November total rainfall?
Wait i will give
doing calculations?
Yes. Probably we may not get above normal rains in November.
We will get more numbers in December.
Due predominent HPA during November.
I need some time to fix it.
@kea
Is the htx template is the only option to feed the live data from ws to website? Is there any other option while using the software such as cumulus, virtual weather station etc.? please clear my doubt
or is there any other option to feed the live data from ws to website
without using the cumulus, virtual weather station etc.?
Raijin,
I am using the VWS software and htx format is the only option available.
As far as I know there are only 2 softwares available to connect to the Davis weather station. VWS and Weather Live. Cumulus is something new, but they don’t have live weather
thnks for the info kea
can anyone tell me when was the last time nunga got 100+mm in 24hr
we came close last month with 94 mm
We recorded 107 mm Last year October on 25th
But in November 150 mm in 3 days and another 130 mm in 2 days. Either of those could also be 100+
thanks kea..this year we are struggling to get 100+ even when we had cyclone.so all the best from them who predicted 100+
Lots of clouds forming in South TN.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nhacsatimg.htm
It is not possible to get good rains before 15th. Since HPA’s presence in South Bay.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012110700!!/
oh no…Some magic has to be happen in the bay with respect to chennai for my predictions to become true which is impossible as per the current situation prevailing in bay
This nilam has made the dry spell longer
KEA,
I reverse one prediction, 100+ days = 1
KEA,
Also reducing the no of rainy days to 10.
@kea
what is the final date to submit the november contest prediction?
there must be some day, after that no one’s prediction for november contest should not be taken into account. please fix it
College work keeping me tied down. 😦 .I heard it rained in the city?Well,sounds like an isolated one.Nothing outside the city except the sun.
I wish all the 400 mm plus prediction guys all the luck. NEM looks bleak as of today. Hope something happens drastically.
one trivia quiz for u all guys. Tell me the last time chennai recorded 18 cm plus in a day.
during cyclone Laila?
oct 27, 2005, 23 cm
ungal kelviyil pilai ullathu..is the question is for NE monsoon only ?
Iam sure that has been highest recorded rainfall in a day for chennai
u r wrong, in oct 27, 2005, it rained 42 cm(423mm)
u pls resolve this, Iam sure no way 42 cm on that day. It was between 22-25 cm.
Lol, 22 cm was recorded in like 4 hours
its in 19th May 2010 recorded 190mm
Honestly,we have had enough dry periods this year.We had a record breaking dry phase lasting 6 and half months.If a law of averages does exist,now would be a good time for it to prove. 😐
One more dry data upto 13th.
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/india.144hr.html
let us not talk abt this lull period. Nov 15th is deadline if no significant rains then KEAs worst fear may be true!
Kea,there have been 2 rainy days in november excluding this according to IMD. The same day,but one before 8:30 am and one at 8:30 pm 😉
There is a circulation moving down south of Srilanka from south tip of bay.
No chance of rain again, since this system will ease the moisture.
If it moves to arabian sea then we may get the pull effect.
http://www.incois.gov.in/Incois/indofos_wind_regional.jsp?selectbox1=bay_of_bengal&selectbox2=wind&selectbox3=13-11-2012–2330
relatives laughing at predictions, first had predicted heavy rains during Nila, then had said Diwali maybe washed out. Both collosal failures.
Redeem yourself by forecasting a hot 33 C. You will be right 90% of the time 😀
HaHa.Then if it rains,You would have to crawl into a hole only.They may even nickname you Ramanan.
Present Low is seen in pic.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=3&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
Becoming well marked by today.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Dissipates by tomorrow.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=30&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
@sundar24
ungal kelviyil pilai ullathu..is the question is for NE monsoon only ?
if it for NE Monsoon, then ur answer(oct 27, 2005, 23 cm) is wrong
correct is 42 cm(423mm)
if it is whole year, then it’s in 19th May 2010 recorded 190mm when the chennai recorded
18+cms in a single day
I am sure it is not 42 cm, u can check it anywhere
check it kea.metsite rainfall link
http://www.kea.metsite.com/rainfall.htm
I saw it, but I said it from newspaper reports!
CFS predicts a storm for chennai on 28th.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=552&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
There is no mention of UAC near Sri Lanka in the evening IMD bulletin. The UAC near south TN has now moved to Karnataka Coast. But IMD is predicting a easterly wave to provide scattered to fairly widespread rainfall after 10th November.
But that easterlies will be more concentrated towards southern TN.
It rained?! No sign of it at BN 😛
Saturday midnight is last day for sending/editing the entries.
Nothing much is going to change between now and then except a few more dry days
KEA,
I have revised.
Wet days – only 10.
Please update.
Law of averages working against the NEM this year. When was the last time it failed?
2003 maybe.
2004. We had heavy rains till Nov. 12th.
after 12th…buzszszszsz till a weak L gave good rains in april 2005.
8-9 normal monsoon is unheard off. Could 2012 could be the year?
Meenambakkam 15 mm! When did it rain? or Did it at all rain
I remember it was dark towards that side around lunch time!
No rain between Velacheri to west mambalam..
it rained around 11am
Highest 24 hr rainfall in Chennai (24 hrs is not with any scale,just blank 24 hrs starting at a random time). This is as far as I know. Pradeep might know more.
01 – 25.11.1976 – 452 mm
02 – 27.10.2005 – 423 mm
03 – __.06.1996 – 348 mm
04 – 2/3.12.2005 – 253 mm
05 – 28.10.2006 – 217 mm
06 – 06.11.2005 – 195 mm
07 – 19.05.2010 – 191.6 mm
08 – 01.11.2002 – 160.1 mm
09 – 28.10.2007 – 160 mm
10 – 24.08.2011 – 156 mm
Pradeep might know about other stats.
Jan and Feb have produced 150 mm+ in one day too.
This is completely only what I know.
Nilam wind speed in Chennai.
Nungambakkam – 72 kph
Meenambakkam – 66 kph
u already posted tis
don’t remember 😛
Chennai NEM results from 2000
Normal or excess NEM thanks to one system is still counted as failure as overall the monsoon wasn’t good. This is my opinion.
2000 – Terrible
2001 – Excess
2002 – Good
2003 – Terrible
2004 – Bad
2005 – …….
2006 – Bad (Ogni , or else <600)
2007 – Average
2008 – Bad
2009 – Good
2010 – Average
2011 – Good
I disagree, 1 system or 10 system why should it matter. 10 systems can also make it a failure
Thambi 2008 bad ah?
Not really bad,average. But without Nisha,it would’ve been terrible.
2002 good??? Only for core city which received 90 cm. and in suburbs and lakes did not cross 60 cm.
We had no rains after Nov. 2nd week and led to the huge water scarcity of 2003!
Chennai ap 15mm?? 😯 did it atleast drizzle in nunga? 😛
anything there jon? btw 0.6 mm here
no idea im in office
guindy 3mm ly.. I think it would’ve not rained admbk..
coz, the clouds from ne and to west of guindy
IMD kolkata is also becoming inefficient.