Warning : Cyclone Nilam to cross near Mahabhalipuram by late evening today with 100 km winds. Chennai people are warned to take precautionary measures.

The last Cyclone to cross here in 1994 devastated Chennai http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2011/12/recall-of-1994-cyclone-as-chennai-fears.htmlΒ 

Forecasted Track of Cylcone Nilam

Warning

People in affected areas are advised to remain indoors. Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. The Damage expected from Nilam are Damage to thatched huts, Breaking of tree branches, minor damage to power and communication lines and Flooding of escape routes.

Rainfall Warning

The most intense storm of Cyclone Nilam yet to reach Chennai. When it reaches Chennai will float in Water. Please see Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery below

Image

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25o mm or more) during next 24 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would also occur over south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and north Interior Tamil Nadu during next 48 hrs.

Storm Surge:

Storm surge of about 1 -1.5 metre over the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the low lying areas of Chennai, Kanchipuram & Tiruvallur of Tamilnadu and Nellore district of Andhra Pradesh.

Winds:

Squally winds speed reaching 90 kmph gusting to 100 kmph would prevail along and off north Tamil Nadu Chennai, Kanchipuram & Tiruvallur of Tamilnadu,Β Puducherry and Nellore district of Andhra Pradesh as the system comes closer to coast, becoming 80-90 kmph at the time of landfall. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 36 hours.

852 thoughts on “Warning : Cyclone Nilam to cross near Mahabhalipuram by late evening today with 100 km winds. Chennai people are warned to take precautionary measures.

  1. Possible Winners of Kea October Rainfall contest

    Guna Sir 400-450
    Pradeep 450-500
    parthasri35 450-500

    if we get more than 50 mm by 8.30 am today…

    Then myself and Parthasri will be declared winners

  2. Kea / Experts is there a possibility of Nilam becoming CAT 2 or more as it is moving North West and is still in Deep sea..

    • pradeep

      i felt it was too low as we have no rains for the past 1 week and 1 week after landfall too will have less or no rain

      • we may in total get around 250 mm till end of November 1st.

        We are having a good NEM till now

        November is our wettest month…

        All i forsee is great NEM for TN at end of December

  3. @pradeep

    once i have the experience of cyclone(typhoon) but i was get stucked in the subway railway station. i was able to saw the destruction thru tv only next day.

  4. First time the history of my life,I am going to witness a cyclone crossing in Chennai.
    This is going to be such a bittersweet experience for me.

  5. Preliminary Rainfall till now from Cyclone around Chennai in mm

    The figures are not comparable and i think mostly all staions will end up above 100 mm mark at 8.30 am

    Perungudi – 94
    Nungambakkam ~ 84
    Puzhal – 83
    Ennore – 73
    Avadi – 71
    Madhavaram – 70
    Taramani – 67
    Katangallathur – 65
    Kelambakkam – 63
    Kolapakkam – 62
    Meenambakkam – 59
    Marina Beach – 57
    Poonamalle – 54
    Sholiganallur – 52
    Chembarabakkam – 49
    Tiruvallur – 34
    Guindy – 32
    Cheyyur – 28
    Cheyyar – 26

    Will Chennai get to 100 mm mark by 8.30 am

    • Chennai will atleast get 100 mm by 8:30 AM for sure.. and our southern counterparts can expect more when it crosses the coast.

  6. 05:00 hours update from IMD on the site the cyclone has again remained stationery as of 02:30 hours 400 kms South South east of Chennai, looks like the fall would happen in the night rather than today evening.

  7. there was some yellow red and white patches in west of radar

    can anyone clear me that whether they are crossed over ones and ready to strike from then west

  8. Recent Wind Speed of various Cyclones in CHENNAI – Data from Kea metsite – only cyclones is considered
    —————–

    Cyclone Jal 47 km/hr (7/11/2010)
    Cyclone Thane 43 km/hr (30/12/2011)
    Cyclone Laila 42 km/hr (19/5/2010)
    Cyclone Nisha 42 km/hr (26/11/2008)
    Depression BOB 08 40 km/hr (28/10/2007)
    Depression BOB 07 45 km/hr (27/09/2007)
    Cyclone Ogni 50 km/hr (28/10/2006)

    Other cyclones in last 20 years when chennai witnessed 100 km/hr winds – IMD data

    On 6th, December 1996 (Tropical Cyclone 08B) – a Cyclone which crossed Chennai produced 100 km/hr winds

    On 31st, October 1994 (Severe Cyclonic Storm BOB 03) – a cyclone which crossed Chennai brought 120-130 km/hr winds

    http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.in/2010/11/recent-wind-speed-of-various-cyclones.html

  9. @KEA – Does core look like the one in PPI? I thought Core will have red spots all over… Or will it acquire those red spots when it comes closer?

  10. Nilam has moved North…. at the same latitude of Nagapattinam now…. Longitude 2 degrees away from nagapattinam….

    Latitude/Longitude
    10.76 79.83 —> Nagapattinam
    10.76 81.66 —> Nilam’s eye
    11.75 79.75 —> Cuddalore
    11.93 79.83 —> Pondicherry
    12.20 79.95 —> Marakanam
    12.50 80.15 —> Kalpakam
    12.62 80.19 —> Mahabalipuram
    13.08 80.27 —> Chennai City
    14.14 79.84 —> Gudur

    • Check coordinates again.South movement.They only take into the displacement of the system not distance travelled.Hence.

    • The 2:30 update mentioned about the cyclone moving northwards. The 5:30 update again talked of the cyclone remaining stationery am also quite confused since people here are talking of the storm moving along the coast near Nagapattinam etc.

    • ha ha.. ! its very slow… v expected this heavy rain from last night.. but this system tested our patience… i think we have a rough day ahead.. lets c..

  11. Cyclone Ogni 2006 and Cyclone Nisha 2008 remains as best cyclones for Chennai in last 15 years
    ———————————-

    Cyclone Ogni 2006 – Around 500 mm in 6 days

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season#Cyclonic_Storm_Ogni

    Rainfall – http://www.kea.metsite.com/2006_10.txt

    Cyclone Nisha 2008 – Around 400 mm in 4 days

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Nisha_%282008%29

    Rainfall – http://www.kea.metsite.com/2008_11.txt

  12. Chennai should prepare for this Cyclone with this strategy in mind:
    Prepare for the worst,Hope for the best.
    Of course,for us weather bloggers,it is exactly opposite. πŸ˜€

  13. cloud mvmt still from NE.cloud mvnt will change to NNW(from NNW) once the system nears chennai.i wont be surprised it it makes landfall early morning tomo

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