Now this cyc movement is slow because it present very near to SL Land area..if its movement to WNM started, then the intensity and movement will be fast…
Don’t underestimate this cyc…This is going to be a severe one..the same thing i told for THANE
I lost my hopes after closing watching the experts analysis in this blog. The system has been taking tumultuous turns heading from here to nowhere..so on and so forth.
I have been extremely pessimistic but I will be more glad to see Chennai getting drenched because of this system.
Maybe not.Guys alert,the wall which is now hitting karaikal is going to marginally affect mahabalipuram. Chennai might have to wait 10 hrs approx. the rainbelt was near vedaranyam this morning.
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at
0830 hours IST of today, the 29th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat. 9.5°N
and long. 83.5° E, about 530 Km southeast of Chennai ( Tamilnadu) and 270 Km northeast of
Tricomalee (Srilanka). The system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move
westwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamilnadu and
adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31st October,
2012 evening/night.
Ya where is Orathanadu,Thanjavur,Thiruvarur which all got 50cm plus in 2008….Btw Vandavasi 700mm seems to be out of place…There is no chance of it receiving such a heavy downpour from SWM tstorms…false reading for sure!
I derive my ancestry from the Northern Most districts of TN,South Interior Ktaka and Southernmosts districts of Rayalseema…..I would definitely have heard atleast of some bit of news if Vandavasi had received 700mm…Serious case of Faulty Rain gauge!
hope ur expectation comes true.. but tat will be flooding the whole city and the suburbs.. also we cannot control d nature.. but we could control d flooding, which tis gov. doesnt bother…
I guess it is not a square.. It is a circle so the coordinates coverage will change as you go round.. Moreover I have always seen it predicting correct within 300 to 350 kms radius only.
The radar beam is cone shapped and tilted upwards. It will not pickup low clouds at longer distance. If you tilt the cone downwards, you pick up all ground clutters. So PPI has limited use for long range.
H. REMARKS…AS WESTERN EDGE OF BANDING MAKES LANDFALL ON SRI LANKA
DT=2.5 BASED ON 5/10 BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 2.5. FT IS BASED ON
DT. CENTER WILL LIKELY BE OVERLAND FOR NEXT FIX.
The deep depression has intensified into marginal cyclone( not severe ) and was located about 100 km East of Mullaitivu at 1730 hours today (29). It is likely to move North-westward and enter the Sri Lankan coast near Mulattivu early morning hours (around 0200hrs) causing heavy showers and strong winds over most parts of the country and surrounding sea areas.
The sky condition would be generally cloudy. One or two spells of rain or thundershower would occur. Surface winds will be strong and gusty at times. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 30 and 26 degree Celsius respectively.
Iam from pondy . Here full moon is out and only light winds from NE.Yesterday we had some rain wind but today nothing. Puyalukku munnum pennum amadhi athu ethu thana illa mazhaiya varatha. From the sat image that the orange spot is in gulf of mannar. Whether it is raining anywhere in TN?
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westsouthwestwards
and lay
centred at 1130 hours IST of today, the 29th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near
lat. 9.0°N and long. 83.0° E, about 550 Km southsoutheast
of Chennai ( Tamilnadu) and 200
Km eastnortheast
of Tricomalee (Srilanka). The system would intensify further into a cyclonic
storm and move westsouthwestwards
for some more time and then move northwestwards and
cross north Tamilnadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and
Nellore by 31st October, 2012 evening/night.
2:30 pm observations. Moved NW 😀 not WSW. It was below 9 in the prev report?wasn’t it?
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE
BANDING HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ALONG THE NORTHERN FEEDER
BAND. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM
A 291234Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04
DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK AND MAKE
LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 24 IN THE VICINITY OF KAKINADA, INDIA.
DESPITE THE INCREASING VWS, TC 02B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL
RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. THE LIMITED
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE
SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS
AND IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 290330Z OCT 12
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 290330) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
Yeah,you’re right.IMD has knack of getting landfall places spot on.I hope they don’t mention a place which I have to search on the maps for proximity to Chennai. 😆
We are almost there… Await IMD prediction in the next 30 minutes.
u really think it will come at 8:30?
this was best exemplified spot on prediction of cyclone thane
Hi All,
I am home now.
IMD in mid day forecast said that system is located 530KM SSE of Chennai.
Now in evening bulletin they say that it is 550KM SSE of Chennai.
KeaWeather Archives 
KEA, why a new post now?
Previous one had crossed 300
We might need another one before end of the day
Okay.. What are these thunderstorms to the west of Chennai? Pull effect or something else?
They are not coming here. See the animation
Thanks kea.
In the meantime, the horrendous wait for rain continues in Chennai.
I purposely gave this title thinking of a few ppl in the blog
system is still 550km away but look at the wind speed outside 🙂 danger signs?? 😐
Jon,
Don’t you think Sandy is a little but overrated?
no it is the biggest storm on record over n atlantic ocean.likely to cause some major destruction over eastern seaboard n Canada
its huge than expected.. Already 50+ dead..
Thanks. I know why you are saying that… 😉
List of heaviest rainfall (more than 40 cms in 24 hrs) in Tamil Nadu
Ketty (Nilgiri Dist) 820.0 10th Nov, 2009
Vandavasi(Thiruvannamalai Dist) 709.0 05th Aug, 1965
Cuddalore 572.0 18th May, 1943
Mahabalipuram 539.6 20th Nov, 1970
Aanamalai (Coimbatore Dist) 515.6 20th Nov ,1959
Palaviduthi (Tiruchirapalli Dist) 500.0 31st Oct, 1981
Karaikal 480.9 15th Nov, 1991
Papanasam (Tanjavur Dist) 480.1 07th Nov, 1917
Kodanad 448.3 15th Nov, 1992
Chennai(City) Nungambakkam 448.0 25th Nov, 1976
Nagapattinam 432.6 05th Dec, 1963
Vedaranyam 418.4 27th Nov, 2008
(Source : Climatology Section, RMC, Chennai)
will this system make new entry to the above list?
wer did u get it RMC chennai…I dont find it!!…Pls gimme the link
hr649 – 90
sampathca – 84
Pradeep John – 76
selvanfun – 76
keaweather – 64
parthasri35 – 59
jon – 50
Its soo close. Anybody can lead by end of the day
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain
Chennai written all over it!!!
Danger! Danger! Alert! Alert! 😀
Partha Sir – The lone warrior; One man army; Hes gonna win this war single-handedly tmrw 🙂
I don’t know why some guys are telling its over …
Its a cyclone..not a LPA …..
Now this cyc movement is slow because it present very near to SL Land area..if its movement to WNM started, then the intensity and movement will be fast…
Don’t underestimate this cyc…This is going to be a severe one..the same thing i told for THANE
6 1/2 hours left and we have already beaten yesterdays record.
Imagine what will happen when the first drop arrives
winds started to pick up steadily now….
I feel it’s all over. Maybe one of those overhyped ones where it is all winds and no rains.
r u kidding?
@rajkmr…what’s your say on this pls?
just one thing..be patience…
I lost my hopes after closing watching the experts analysis in this blog. The system has been taking tumultuous turns heading from here to nowhere..so on and so forth.
I have been extremely pessimistic but I will be more glad to see Chennai getting drenched because of this system.
guruji…
Don’t lose ur hope…its will happen fastly very soon…
Maybe not.Guys alert,the wall which is now hitting karaikal is going to marginally affect mahabalipuram. Chennai might have to wait 10 hrs approx. the rainbelt was near vedaranyam this morning.
big protests in chennai over kudangalam plant, I guess tmorw also they can continue, clear skies
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at
0830 hours IST of today, the 29th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near lat. 9.5°N
and long. 83.5° E, about 530 Km southeast of Chennai ( Tamilnadu) and 270 Km northeast of
Tricomalee (Srilanka). The system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move
westwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamilnadu and
adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31st October,
2012 evening/night.
8:30 am,but read last sentence
foreca predicts not much rain next 12-hours
not 12 hours,but rain belt has extended.
@ karthikraghavan1994
List of heaviest rainfall (more than 40 cms in 24 hrs) in Tamil Nadu
Ketty (Nilgiri Dist) 820.0 10th Nov, 2009
Vandavasi(Thiruvannamalai Dist) 709.0 05th Aug, 1965
Cuddalore 572.0 18th May, 1943
Mahabalipuram 539.6 20th Nov, 1970
Aanamalai (Coimbatore Dist) 515.6 20th Nov ,1959
Palaviduthi (Tiruchirapalli Dist) 500.0 31st Oct, 1981
Karaikal 480.9 15th Nov, 1991
Papanasam (Tanjavur Dist) 480.1 07th Nov, 1917
Kodanad 448.3 15th Nov, 1992
Chennai(City) Nungambakkam 448.0 25th Nov, 1976
Nagapattinam 432.6 05th Dec, 1963
Vedaranyam 418.4 27th Nov, 2008
(Source : Climatology Section, RMC, Chennai)
Click to access 26313.pdf
move to the second page and u will get the list
orathanadu?
@ karthickragahavan
r u the Diamond Member of this blog.. if so why u were not active for long time?
s. It was not in the list.
Orathanadu(Tanjore District) 660 27 Nov, 2008
All of you,
Please stop your assumptions. I have said twice today about the scenario.
Wait and watch.
I still stand for North TN coast to be hit. Do not worry.
Lets start some other discussions.
All of you be cautious of this system.
i too stand with u…this going to be a severe one..
IMD predicting WS rainfall with strong winds for TN….. Also very severe warning
@5:29pm u said,
I feel it’s all over. Maybe one of those overhyped ones where it is all winds and no rains.
😆
mind changed soon seeing S.AP forecasts from models.. 😀
Clouds from SE nearing 100KM radius. Wait and watch.
Please disconnect your cable connections tonight. It is TS approaching.
i think those clouds are going down south
yes they are,but in 12 hours,clouds have come 150-200 km north
BBC predicting S.AP landfall,but yellow blob over chennai still maintains…..
Another forecast for landfall.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/India?over=arrows&symbols=none&type=cloud
Latest GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12102906/9.html
If you take average of UKM and GFS , then cyclone crosses close to Chennai.
Rain bands are aproaching Chennai very fast.I stand for my predictiction of 40cm before 0830am on Nov 1st.
That’s my boy… I stand by you.. We will get rains..
40cm ?? R u serious?? I feel a max. of 20 is possible..
My family has started making fun of me…. Dear cyclone, please reach them a lesson by pouring over Chennai…
same here, people joking abt our storm warnings. There is no iota of indication so far!
same with my colleagues too
lol same here !!!!! 🙂
Radar shows activity bay of bengal but not much approximately 150 kms to the east of chennai. Its all bits and pieces though.
Ok,
I am leaving office now, will join you by 7.30PM after i reach home.
Bye.
Ya where is Orathanadu,Thanjavur,Thiruvarur which all got 50cm plus in 2008….Btw Vandavasi 700mm seems to be out of place…There is no chance of it receiving such a heavy downpour from SWM tstorms…false reading for sure!
yes,700 mm in SWM,lol. Even cherrapunji gets that only 2-3 times a year. Direct SWM places in western ghats might get it once in 3 years.But this………..
s. It was not in the list.
Orathanadu(Tanjore District) 660 27 Nov, 2008
Rain bands east and west of Chennai. Rotation will bring that to Chennai by night.
the one near NE of Chennai is visible on radar..
I derive my ancestry from the Northern Most districts of TN,South Interior Ktaka and Southernmosts districts of Rayalseema…..I would definitely have heard atleast of some bit of news if Vandavasi had received 700mm…Serious case of Faulty Rain gauge!
like neyyoor aws 😀
lol.. Neyyoor tops d list daily
yes, the world’s wettest place 😛
@KEA… When you take the count, is it possible to take only the useful comments? 🙂 And ignoring useless comments? 😉
K..Gotta leave now…Let’s see if there is Any interesting improvemnts by 9pm
!
rain belt moving slowly north.
@KEA,why have u disabled displaying profile picture in wordpress?
too slow for mobiles especially in peak time.
rain clouds now in 50-100km range…
For the first time, we are having radar show something within 100 kms radius from this system… So there is improvement.. 🙂
yes,rain belt moving north.
the northern wing of nilam is moving from NE towards Chennai.. if the whole sys starts moving from towards NW, we’l receive rain from SE clouds..
Looks like its southern journey has stopped (thats good news) and it has tracked only west (OK news)… at 5 PM IST it was at
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9312fix.txt
TPIO10 PGTW 291204
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 29/1130Z
C. 8.8N
D. 82.2E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
We have to go by IMD since this in their area of surveillance. They would know / have better tools to find the LLCC. Let’s wait for IMD.
Agreed.
Look at this page : –
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/cyclone.htm
It is NIL because there is no cyclone at this moment…
Cyclone Warning has been issued on mrg itself !! at least tey shld’ve copy pasted tat… Even IMD is issuing its bulletin periodically..
*facepalm* how stupid/lazy can they be?Already heard of some deaths in delta districts.
Is it raining in the delta now? Any bloggers from there?
gtaman is from thiruvarur, but big yellow/orange spot was there for 1 hour.
there is nothing other than rain here
DATE/TIME(UTC) POSITION (LAT.
0
N/
LONG.
0
E)
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND
SPEED (KMPH)
CATEGORY
29-10-2012/0600 9.0/83.0 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
29-10-2012/1200 8.8/82.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
29-10-2012/1800 8.5/82.3 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
30-10-2012/0000 9.0/82.0 75-85 GUSTING TO 95 CYCLONIC STORM
30-10-2012/0600 9.5/81.7 75-85 GUSTING TO 95 CYCLONIC STORM
30-10-2012/1800 10.5/81.2 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
31-10-2012/0600 12.0/80.5 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
31-10-2012/1800 13.5/79.5 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
01-11-2012/0600 15.0/78.5 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 LOW
Omg!!! IMD predicting it to move south and then north,exactly what everyone thinks is going to happen! Every model now says the same.
But this is few hours old data.
forecast might change by night,but anyways a thrill is not bad 😀
SRI radar started getting clouds from south east…. Fun time begins folks.. Congrats…
Non-stop band development 😀
can ur weather station withstand heavy winds and rains ?
yes,mounted on 8 kg tripod with some special alloy stronger than steel at bottm.
mine wil be ok i guess.
in nagapattinam is raining from 1 itself
you got there just in time…
@hr649, 40cm rain in 3 full nights(29,30 &31) and full two days (30 and 31) during a cyclone is moderate expectatation!
hope ur expectation comes true.. but tat will be flooding the whole city and the suburbs.. also we cannot control d nature.. but we could control d flooding, which tis gov. doesnt bother…
Thanks. How strong is the rain? Is it continuos or intermittent?
This questions was for @yajuradhithya.. For some reason when I post from mobile, it comes as a separate post.
u must be using opera browser..
You are on the money.
yess coz I also face the same probs !! have to check everytime wen i reply to a comment..
if u useing android use chrome browser
Will download now.. How about the rains there?
Why doesnt the PPI radar show the cyclone? If I am correct the range starts from 8.5N 84.5E
The system is supposed to be at 8.8 N 82.5 E. Why doesnt it show?
I guess its range is 300kms ly..
yes,it shows 50 dbz spots as 30 dbz from 300 and doesn’t receive signals beyond that.
it says range is 500 km
reflectivity rays go till 500 km,but signals fail to return due to distance/height as it travels straight high
i think it can pick rain clouds only from the 3rd circle
I guess it is not a square.. It is a circle so the coordinates coverage will change as you go round.. Moreover I have always seen it predicting correct within 300 to 350 kms radius only.
The radar beam is cone shapped and tilted upwards. It will not pickup low clouds at longer distance. If you tilt the cone downwards, you pick up all ground clutters. So PPI has limited use for long range.
Southern quadrent of TS consolidated. Though minor loss of strength, now it will act as a cyclone and moveup and strengthen.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_mpsatwnd.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012&product_filename=2012WP93_MPSATWND_201210291200
new storms building up in northern half.
can anone tell where the cyclone is located nw ?
you can track it yourself with these links.
Click to access allindianew.pdf
Click to access cwind.pdf
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone.htm
now it’s around 9 N and 82.9 E
chennai is 13.08389°N 80.27°E so cyclone have to move forward north to reach chennai
http://mt1.googleapis.com/vt/lyrs=m@195000000&hl=en&src=api&x=23&y=14&z=5&s=Gal
use tis http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/storms/93W.html
@8.8N and 81.8E at 0830UTC. Moving WEST.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Waiting for 12 UTC (0530PM) position.
if cyclone is moving west then it may miss chennai ah ?
It will track west for some time and then start tracking NNW.. We will get rains from this system for sure.. It is just a matter of time.
oh ok thanks 4 ur info akka
bbc weather forecast says 350mm possible for chennai
bbc predicting tis much !! so we’l get at least 250
It has to start soon to reach that 350 mm. 350 in 24 hours is impossible
just check the video link in bbc site
im not getting it,can u give link?
click on middle east forecast
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/6301127
Per this link, the Arabian sea storm is pulled in by our system near North Kerala… Thats good for our Mettur dam 🙂
karaikal 42mm till 17:30
already 2 centuries in past 2 dys.. . nd now nearing half century…
double century on cards
New estimates
WU – 145 mm
Accu – 135 mm
Foreca – 150 mm
Cola – 180 mm
For first time all the 4 are in close range
WU increased by ~70 mm
I still stick to my 175 to 225
everyone is answering my questions very soon 🙂 thanks to all kea users 🙂 i feel very happy to be a member of this blog
started movin NW
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=iiir&CONT=asie&BIG=1&LOOP=12
I’m sticking to 125
kottu vanguva thambi.75mm is ur prediction 😐
ok.
I haven’t given mine still !! I’l go with 175-225
I guess it is past the deadline..
we haven’t received single drop of rain..
Interacting over land(SL). May weaken little bit
What I dreaded most!
TXIO24 KNES 290931
TCSNIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)
B. 29/0830Z
C. 8.8N
D. 81.8E
E. THREE/MET-7
F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS…AS WESTERN EDGE OF BANDING MAKES LANDFALL ON SRI LANKA
DT=2.5 BASED ON 5/10 BANDING. MET AND PAT ALSO 2.5. FT IS BASED ON
DT. CENTER WILL LIKELY BE OVERLAND FOR NEXT FIX.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
its still the old one.
What is that?
TPIO10 PGTW 291204
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (E OF SRI LANKA)
B. 29/1130Z
C. 8.8N
D. 82.2E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .40 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
If you are referring to the landfall over Sri Lanka, I guess once it moves north, it will pick up again.
It should move north to survive:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Yes.. And we are all praying for it.. Right?
Meanwhile, have a view of Sandy..
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt18L.html
It attained CI 6.5 maximum..
@KEA,Put warning scroll on the main site!
warning for what? Let JTWC first come up with the warning and track
this will give less than 10 cm
Thats fine for now for our water needs.. Delta will get more than what it needs though.
Appears quite accurate 🙂
no 😀 current position is wrong and I can just see why you are happy ;D bengloor…
hahhaha 🙂
news has predicted btw nagapattinam and nellore but u had predicted bglore ?????/
which model?
what forecast is this?
current location itself wrong in tat map
Wonderful catch… There you go.
wat abt chennai ? ll it miss chennai ?
@ashvqc, we need to wait for IMD bulletin at 8:30 and see the track. Hopefully by then IMD will name this thing Nilam
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone_fdp/CycloneFDP.htm
click on QLM
Why does IMD kill us… SRI radar not updating again.. Why they do it always during an approaching storm… Better they fix it soon.
its working fine
http://www.kea.metsite.com/radarSRI.htm
Look at the other two radars… It is around 12:50.. This is struck at 12:33..
its 12:53 now
Thanks.. It looks like they are updating it late…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/obtrack.htm
IMD predicts this. Chennai landfall
Cone of uncertainity-Lol.Basically TN and A.P.
Very Accurate forecast.
This is surely a WordPress record.
1605 comments in less than 42 hours and not a drop of rain
it rained yesterday morning at chetpet.
I like the second part of your statement.
The deep depression has intensified into marginal cyclone( not severe ) and was located about 100 km East of Mullaitivu at 1730 hours today (29). It is likely to move North-westward and enter the Sri Lankan coast near Mulattivu early morning hours (around 0200hrs) causing heavy showers and strong winds over most parts of the country and surrounding sea areas.
this is from SL met dep right?
yes…
Now even SLMD predicting NW movement and tropical storm status 😀
Angry looking clouds east of Lanka – BBC
Forecast for tomorrow
The sky condition would be generally cloudy. One or two spells of rain or thundershower would occur. Surface winds will be strong and gusty at times. Maximum and minimum temperature would be around 30 and 26 degree Celsius respectively.
KEA met dept forecast?
idha engayo ketu iruken.. !!
torrential drizzles?
@sampathca
ashvqc called you akka. 😆 no offense
I didn’t notice it. Thanks. May be he is a foreigner and doesn’t know Indian names.. No issues.
no problem for that,only by mistake though
sry sampath am not foreigner i had mistaken the word 😦 i thought sampathica 😛
IMD can just say landfall in southern asia 😀
tis is the correct forecast
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cycwindfc.htm
lol
No one’s going to blame it,such is the accuracy of the prediction. Wow. cyclone position- umm. NO CYCLONE 😆
seriously some university shld do all these tracking work.. at least the students nd the professors gets some official opportunity..
tis one also.. http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/cyclone.htm
Where is “_” ? Pipe living is dangerous
Iam from pondy . Here full moon is out and only light winds from NE.Yesterday we had some rain wind but today nothing. Puyalukku munnum pennum amadhi athu ethu thana illa mazhaiya varatha. From the sat image that the orange spot is in gulf of mannar. Whether it is raining anywhere in TN?
Heavy rain approaching pondy and cuddalore according to radar
Rain won’t be widespread before system crossing coast(unlike low pressure).It will rain only in 20-50 km radius .Hence no rain till now in Chennai .
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westsouthwestwards
and lay
centred at 1130 hours IST of today, the 29th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near
lat. 9.0°N and long. 83.0° E, about 550 Km southsoutheast
of Chennai ( Tamilnadu) and 200
Km eastnortheast
of Tricomalee (Srilanka). The system would intensify further into a cyclonic
storm and move westsouthwestwards
for some more time and then move northwestwards and
cross north Tamilnadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and
Nellore by 31st October, 2012 evening/night.
2:30 pm observations. Moved NW 😀 not WSW. It was below 9 in the prev report?wasn’t it?
Oh,actually now it’s moving NW.Since IMD observation’s are at 2:30 pm,it’s stated as WSW.
I feel chennai may not get much rains from this system.
me too.I don’t think >10-12 cm is possible
every 1hr u r giving the same update
Yes with so much expections past 24 hours not even a drop
U want me to say it will pour torrentially, I want it to happen, but!
dashman’s is probably the only person’s name we don’t know in the blog
New position :- 8.8N, 82E with Intensity 35
Its nearing Lankan Coast.. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2012WP93/MPSATWND/2012WP93_MPSATWND_201210291200_SWHR.GIF
8.5 n?
sorry for the prev post,btw this is the link
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO022012
now tropical storm
Welcome to Earth – Nilam…(KEA would still insist that only IMD can name its child).
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012
is it a storm now?
can any one in this blog give the exact status as of now from morning till this time i was expecting rain but nothing happened!
Thats the specialty of nature.. Keeps everyone guessing..
Expect TS status in IMD’s night report.
Winds gusting up to 50 mph here in Boston !
Stay safe.
engha kathu kudha ninidich..
Light rain will start in Chennai during early morning of 30th october and will gain strength thereaft
what makes u say so? anyway hoping for at least 3-4 cm
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=02A&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
Now TS according to CIMSS 😀 We can track it!
Data will be available soon
DD REACHED THE STORM STATUS….
TS STATUS :
Status at 1200 UTC ( 5.30 PM IST):
Presure : 996 mb
Windspeed : 35 kts
ANALYST : TS
LAT : 8.8 N
LON : 82.0E
CAT : TS
Again it reached to 35kts…its intensifying slowly..
Now its officially Tropical Cyclone
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0212web.txt
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTHEAST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE
BANDING HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ALONG THE NORTHERN FEEDER
BAND. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM
A 291234Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04
DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK AND MAKE
LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 24 IN THE VICINITY OF KAKINADA, INDIA.
DESPITE THE INCREASING VWS, TC 02B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL
RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. THE LIMITED
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE
SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS
AND IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 290330Z OCT 12
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 290330) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
karaikal or kakinada? 😀
Kakinada.. 😦
CHEERS FRNDS…
NILAM FORMED…..
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/main.html
it is to be offically declared by IMD
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0212web.txt
TC warning text
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0212web.txt
it crossing near nagapattinam i think
Oh no.. It says Kakinada..
on
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 10.9N 79.7E
it say this but landfall in kakinada ? how ?
I guess they made a mistake with name.. It is Karaikkal…
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201202B.html
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
WOW
Looking at the forecasts,this might be cyclone ogni
*track might be like
or nisha?
landfall in KAKINADA
@kea remove tat jtwc image post.something gone wrong its vry big
Why does the text says Kakinada and image shows Karaikkal? Did they get confused.
s they mite change it
its karaikal
@jon
Looks like JTWC messed up karaikal with kakinada
kakinada?
Outside Chennai scope again?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/02A-list.txt
8.90 -81.85
As per the latest track..
10.9 N falls between Nagai and karaikal..
is there any chance of rain, if it follows JTWC track
doesn’t look good
surely there will be a twist somewhere. Cyclones are not so easy to predict
track will change again,it mite cross btw cdl n chennai.current track too looks gud for chennai
on
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z — 10.9N 79.7E it nagapattinam latitude
it say this but landfall in kakinada ? how ?
its karaikal not kakinada
yes 🙂
messed up between karaikal and kakinada
The forecasted track barely stretches upto chennai.Let’s hope the cone of uncertainity saves us.
I am sure it will give us some rain.
Hopefully.
Cyclone set to cross 250 km away from Chennai. Very little impact. Rain possible Chennai only after crossing?
Chennai may get early crossing showers and pull effect showers if it follows JTWC track
Once again we are left to hope that the JTWC forecast will be wrong.Do we have a jinx or something? 😐
IMD usually gives accurate tracks for cyclones. Hope thye dont let us down this time
Yeah,you’re right.IMD has knack of getting landfall places spot on.I hope they don’t mention a place which I have to search on the maps for proximity to Chennai. 😆
We are almost there… Await IMD prediction in the next 30 minutes.
u really think it will come at 8:30?
this was best exemplified spot on prediction of cyclone thane
Hi All,
I am home now.
IMD in mid day forecast said that system is located 530KM SSE of Chennai.
Now in evening bulletin they say that it is 550KM SSE of Chennai.