Chennai forecasted to get rains from Monday with heavier spells in Tuesday and Wednesday
Depression to intensify into Cyclone Nilam in the next 24 hrs and IMD does not yet know where it will cross the coast inTamil Nadu
Chennai forecasted to get rains from Monday with heavier spells in Tuesday and Wednesday
KeaWeather Archives 
Hoping to see rains from tomorrow afternoon!!
It will be interesting to see which district receives highest rainfall from this system. Will we get any surprises apart from the familiar ones in the northern coast?
I am expecting Tirunelveli/Nilgiris could throw a surprise
May be Trichy / Namakkal..especially if the system crosses between Vedaranyam and adiramapattinam and moves northwest, they will get deluged.
Srilanka seems to be the biggest benificiery of this depression…
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Moved North and intensity is 30 kts
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012
It will be Kanyakumari district which will top the charts tomorrow
According to NRL Navy
its moved further north at.9.6N 84.4E with 30kts and mslp of 1000mb
Iadia’s supercomputer weather model.
We can the shift of the storm to north on nearing SL
http://rtws.cdac.in/precipitation_daily.html
Whx was it not named? Give me its recent location and predicted path? No rains in pondy as of now. When will it start? What about other coastal districts
It will get named only if it is declared a cyclone. IMD expects that to happen in 24 hours. It is near north SL and expected move west and cross SL and Vedaranyam per IMD. But I feel it will start tracking north in a few hours from now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2012/tdata/wpac/93W.html
The 0200 hrs IMD report has nothing new in it…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm
For the last 6 hours it hasn’t moved south and moved exactly west… Is it going to move north?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2012/tdata/wpac/93W.html
Why was it not named? Give me its recent location and predicted path? No rains in pondy as of now. When will it start? What about other coastal districts
Everyone is eagerly waiting for that. Pondy will definitely get rainfall from today but for us it has move a little north for the gain bands to reach us.
For it to make landfall close to Chennai,it has to start tracking north and do so consistently for about 500km.I’m starting to doubt the path of the system.Don’t you bail on us..
few showers ere in mount
It has started tracking north,I repeat.The NOAA link gives latest coordinates as 9.6 84.4
acc to bbc its movin towards ap via chennai
via chennai meaning it makes landfall?Then,that can be the best scenario for us from here,no?
lanfall is not clear but im a bit worried now since most models predicitng NNW movement so chances of making lf in AP cannot be ruled out
I was worried it wouldn’t start moving north.Now,sinnce that is predicte,our chances can only improve.btw,is it the system that can be seen in the radar?
not yet only outer bands visible
Could you please provide the NOAA link?
It is the RAMMB link I was referring to.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012
NOAA tracker disagrees but itsn’t updated,so don’t worry seeing it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2012/tdata/wpac/93W.html
Its too little a move. But yes it seems to have moved a little to the north
I’ll take that over its flat westerly movement any day.By noon it should reached the 11 or 11.5 latitude from what I know.11.5 84′ or 11 83′ would be an ideal setup for it to cross chennai.Let’s see.
No rain in nagapattinam now
That is not good. If the system is moving north then it should be pouring continuously there…
it should start soon
Yes I think it may start any moment
A few low,fast clouds zipping through T.Nagar.Not a drop,though.
Per businessline, the system will make landfall near south east Tamil Nadu and then track north due to westerlies..
m.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/tn-coast-faces-threat-from-building-storm-in-bay/article4041119.ece/?secid=11683
@Jon.. I don’t think we should be much worried if it moves north as we will start getting rainfall. Yes if it makes landfall in TN it would give more rains but it is better to get some rains than no rains.
Radar shows huge clouds nearing nagapattinam
Jon,What are the chances of intensification of the system from here?
From the current shear tendency it seems the shear is reducing to the north which will show stable intensification as the center has freedom to wander bit north or south and it wont be affected by high shear as entire area would be covered by low shear.The stable intensification would start after 6-12 hours.
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9312fix.txt
OMG Its moving south…
as mentioned earlier. 0.1 or 0.2 really does not matter. That should be a cause of concern is a 0.5 degree shift or more
It moving north ?
hi, what is the wind direction in nagai?
No. The coordinates suggest that it is moving further south.
doesnt look like that? for sure it will move west or NW
Nope. The coordinates suggest that it is a west south west movement unless the numbers provided are wrong.
Hi Yajur,
pls let us know the wind direction in Nagai
useless Department of Meteorology website of Sri Lanka does not even work
Yes. I did try that many times in the past.. There will be a lot of cloud cover over SL but they will still show less than a mm.
the page does not even load
Lol
http://www.meteo.gov.lk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=61&Itemid=70&lang=en
Bad Weather Warnings
No Bad Weather Warnings
They are still in July waiting for more SWM rains.. Site not updated for long I guess.
BBC predicting that the DD will go near to N-E Srilanka by today noon and then move N-W by today night & move along central TN coast ..hitting chennai by tomorrow noon and moving to AP …
Humidity finally changed. Its down to 99% now. Hopefully the wind will dry my hygrometer completely before it becomes wet again
WEATHER FORECAST FOR 29th OCTOBER 2012
(Issued at 12.00 noon. on 28th October 2012)
The depression in the Bay of Bengal is likely to deepen in to a deep depression and move slowly to the west-northwestward. It is likely to be Centered about 400 km east of Trincomalee by tomorrow, 29th morning.
Fishermen’s are requested to be vigilant about the strong winds, showery weather and rough seas in the sea areas off the coast from Jaffna to Batticaloa via Trincomalee.
Generally cloudy conditions will prevail over the island and there will be showers or thundershowers accompanied by fairly strong winds at times especially in the Eastern, Northern and North central provinces(with scattered heavy falls).
Is it from SL met?
yes
Finally the shear tendency is decreasing to the north of the system .Its a good sign and it shows much stable intensifcation is nearing as predicted by the models .Though the center the of the system not so good better band clouds are trying wrapping the system which is a good sign.The intensification would be much more stable after 6-12 hours as shear is slowly reducing over the north for the first time.
when will it start moving N-W?
it is a billion dollar question as of now!!
I have dont have clear answers for it.From the current movement there seems to be a decrease in forward speed and it signifies some development in the south TN coast which would be preventing the movement.The direction would change more west-northwesterly soon.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!0!Asia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012102812!!/
Ecmwf shows high over south TN which is currently decreasing the westward movement of the system
but that doesn’t decrease northerly movement.
Moreover the ridge is also set to weaken.
2day u r more active in blogging. u r back with bang as the system is approaching 2wards coastal tamilnadu
Surprisingly hr649 is missing since morning.
@Jon, I think it is all over for Chennai?
@kea
which model of weather station do you own? LaCrosse or Davis or anyother?.
davis vp2
wired or wireless?model no please if u know?
Pradeep,The system would produce more than 20 cm if its going to move bit west-northwest.I also expect the same rain amount..If the system starts moving northwestward even this amount is less since the movement of system is pretty slow.
Do you still believe that Chennai will receive rains?
Yes, the system is far away from chennai and more over it has shown generally flat intensification trend for past 24 hours once it starts intensification the storm size will increase wnd we would be getting rains.
sorry.increase in size.
Thanks Vinodh.
Kea,how much do you expect from this system in terms of rain?
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012
Storm has moved 0.1 N and 0.1 E. Is this good news?
@ Sudharshan.. That was issues 1800 Z.. See the 2330 Z JTWC report, it says 9.3 N which means it has tracked .3 south…
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9312fix.txt
yes,not good news
Clouds are moving from north to south… Not sure what to infer.
That is because of the circulation,don’t worry about that.The storm has moved a bit NW as a whole
sampathca,the system movement is dependent on the wind direction in 500mb .
Or is it just a temporary movement towards N?
i guess its more of LLC relocation rather than movement.
The westward movement is slowing down thats sign of north west movement.
The NW band of propspective NILAM looks great……it will hit Tn coast by noon……soke lighr rain in tbm btw an hour back…
yup…
Kar,these days you are not so active in the blog..
So many thoughts shared, but nothing is for sure…..testing times for Chennai.
Thats always the case when it comes to weather forecast its very unreliable.
Yup, sometimes, the harsh reality needs to be accepted. Anyway lets hope for the best from this system.
vadaa pooche
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=60&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
GFS predicting nagai landfall. But I feel it’ll hit lanka
The center of circulation looks closer to cuddalore than nagai.
well,yeah but the main thunderstorms go to nagai and karaikal
hmm
9.3 N 83.5 E Look’s like it’s moving only south-west
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=78&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
look at this,GFS saying chennai would get caught in a purple spot. As of now,all forecasts failed predicting rain on monday.
They were basing the forecast on the current intensity.Most of models failed because the system intensity was unstable during 24 hours.
wow.. check out BBC forecast for Tuesday evening for Chennai…
The yellow core right over chennai..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/1264527
yes,like nisha. Even ECMWF predicting core over chennai.
Storm currently taking ECMWF’s path. ECMWF says it’ll go near lanka and curve towards N and hit chennai. I don’t think that would happen unless it reaches a tropical storm
ECMWF is the best performing weather model in the world so its forecast are lot reliable than others.
bbc and ecmwf predicting the same. ECMWF predicting path,bbc rainfall. Big yellow blob over chennai
BBC has not updated the pressure chart.It also expecting the storm to follow ECMWF path.
Guys , IMD tells different story. It says storm moved 0.1 S and 0.1 E till 2330 hrs. Looks like reorganization of LLCC. But you have to go with IMD as they are incharge of this storm and not nrlmry or noaa. Now according to IMD, 9.5 N and 84.5 E
yes
It is difficult to satellite fix the position of TS. Errors will be + or – 60 knots.
yes,JTWC falterred in locating the center of nisha.IMD has better chance since the storm is in its area of resposibility and they would have more data especially from buoys.
when is the next JTWC update ??
will be in 1 hour.
It is a TS:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
The models are encouraging:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/12102812/24.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/12102818/3.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12102818/12.html
All are agreeing that it will be a full fledged Cyclone. Not a Marginal one!
Intense convection around the center…
Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Coasts
BOB 02/2012/02 Dated: 28.10. 2012
Time of issue: 2030 hours IST
Sub: Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal:
Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts
The depression over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 28thth October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.50N and longitude 85.00E, about 650 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 400 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka). The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently into a marginal cyclonic storm. The system would move westwards towards north Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coast.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from tomorrow onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph would commence along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from 29thth October afternoon onwards. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from that period. Fishermen along north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts, who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
The system is under constant surveillance.
The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 29th October, 2012
bhaskaran even the 3rd report is out ……refresh ur browser
Old news..
Clean sweep by nagai… 20cm assured for tday http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indian/southern/vapor/LATEST.jpg
Jtwc update wil b out at 8.30, imd may comeout with a warning at the same time..
I like this:
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/F_574_CH-15.htm
NCMRWF is the worst model…of all numerical models
ya ..i think its a oudated model..am i right?
yes
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=cmc&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=72&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
95% of the models predicting close to chennai
Sri Lanka Meteorology page not updated after 26th…namma IMD oda romba mosama irukanga
On 26th
Galle – 139 mm
http://www.meteo.gov.lk/index.php?option=com_last24&Itemid=125&lang=en
IMD is the best govt. weather organization in the world. See US,UK. They have different companies for different products. Namma IMD has everything in one website,simple and useful
More models are coming with consistent NW movement.There is a chance the storm would land in south AP.
Most models now say by 1st Nov when thr storm closes in near chennai, the pressure will be at 990 MB.. is that enough pressure for a powerful cyclone ??
Also considering that the system will move north west from North east SL and head into open waters towards the Chennai coast, that is a lot of movement over deep water enough to fuel storm intensification..
990 mb is surely a cat 1 or tropical storm. D/DD can’t have such low pressure.
The pressure could belesser than 990mb .its a moderate cyclone.
CAT 1 would have 978 mb pressure.A marginal cat 1 cannot be ruled out here as the storm will have more time if it follows NW movement.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-vis.htm
Has it moved/organized itself to the north?
not sure about the location from satellite image but it is intensifying at a better rate visible from hook like shape.It has gained cyclone intensity.
Vinodh na,am wondering how tis system going to push tis ridge,.. Models r showing twrds pondi-chennai… http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/dprog/F000/mslp/asia/mslp_asia_31.gif
If it gains intensity then it will push depends on weakness in the ridge.
it will have more strength to push the ridge after gaining intensity 🙂
it does not look like a strong ridge to me…it will be pushed up
Ada pavingala, neathiku naan oru thaan, Chennai 200 mm rain solitu irunthaan
today everyone is saying in this blog Chennai Target.
Dei thambi sudarsha, remember ur target 70 mm
Meanwhile, GFS superb copy of ECMWF and all models ECMWF, BBC, NCMWRF, Tailwan, UKMO, Nogaps, CMC etc etc
ALL SHOW Chennai Landfall
GFS
My prediction was and is 40cm!
i changed to 125 mm
sudarsha stick to 70 mm ur not allowed to change
i changed 2 days ago.
I hope it doesnt get pushed beyond 1st November.. Illaena en flight chennai vittu kelambadhu… who knows may be it is a blessing in disguise…
On another note i have a very villanous thought.. This storm might move past chennai and head into souuth or central AP… ???
Does anyone feel that way ….
possibility cannot be ruled out.
It will be in central AP on 2nd NOV
I really wish and pary that this one doesnt become a ‘JAL’ again…
common how can it become JAL
Analysis this the wind shear, its reducing, which means strong system
it has become a cyclonic storm.
how do u say that ??
Most of the time the hook like shape coincides with minimal cyclone intensity
rightly agreed,
Pressure dropped below 1000 and kts nearing 40 in the latest forecast
RMMB CIRA Position as on 5.30 IST is out
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012
9.6 83.7 and 30 kts
It has moved west… Hope it also moves north from here…
yes
It looks more like a minimal cyclone rather than DD.It would be upgraded very soon.
If it goes to south AP,it is good for us only.We’ll get the towers before it goes there.
Pj,even i said chennai would get min 20cm.
System now moves west instead of wsw. Might change to WNW and NW initially
Where is this?
its a documentary http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2I8ssDXOwM
Outer bands of Cyclone can be seen in MAX Z now….Chennai will be covered now
Rains will reach us by evening
96N-83.7E Moved w-nw.
It has been 9.6 N for the past 12 hours.
Looking at the satellite image, we should get to see this system’s cloudy shortly…
E-s.east quadrant along with tat tail part wil 1st hit chennai around evening… Super convection taking place http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/indian/southern/vis/LATEST.jpg
Sampath, u r ryte..alrdy its turning gloomy and winds picking up…
What about sandy this is going to history in nature I think
is it? Vil monitor tat from now on
@Raijin, it is Davis VP2 wireless basic model
http://www.davisnet.com/weather/products/weather_product.asp?pnum=06152
@Vinod, interesting question. I hope I am wrong. But Chennai would struggle to cross 100 mm.
thnks kea
Top Commenters in last Comments
Pradeep John 118
hr649 111
Sudharshan Madhavan 111
sampathca 97
selvanfun 68
jon 67
vinodh1986 62
After long time sudaharshan is pushed down…he topped the charts continuously for over a month
last 1000 Comments
where am I?
Where is KAR ?
probably the last 7 commentators list
its only based on recent 1000 comments
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain
Is the eye of the storm neat nagapattinam coast on Tuesday eve ??
does anyone see the eye in the satellite image.. it is clearly visible
look at this radar the outer curve of the storm
Its coming like a big wall
two days talk abt rains in chennai, but not a drop yet! come on guys will it ever come
be patient, wen it rains from today evening it will be plenty
yes we need aplenty for sure, lakes storage not good enough,
Cyclone going to cross S. Andhra according to BBC. If this happens, Chennai will get atleast minimum 350 mm. Only problem is duration is too less. Cyclone will cross Wednesday morning. Rains have not started yet. In less than 48 hours rains will be over. How much Chennai can get in approx 36 hours?
weather and a woman, never know where they are heading!
Thats a very cahuvinistic statement lol 🙂
If this happens, then it would be one of the systems in recent past to give rains from Central AP to soutern tip of TN
What is ur prediction for chennai from this system
I already mentioned a few minutes back to Vinodh. Chennai would struggle to cross 100 mm
Clear pic of Tc Tilting twrds nw ,n.tamilnadu coast.. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc12/WPAC/93W.INVEST/vis/geo/1km/20121029.0157.mtsat1r.x.vis1km.93WINVEST.30kts-1000mb-96N-837E.100pc.jpg
Srilanka is getting battered for the past two days…Any big figures from there ???
not updated…we will get it today
Sel for Villivakkam
Accu is predicting 150 mm for next 3 days
http://www.accuweather.com/en/in/villivakkam/201009/daily-weather-forecast/201009
Pradeep, currently WordPress page splits every 75 comments from 150 comments earlier. Is this too less? I changed it yesterday as someone said it takes too long to load.
its less, we loose important comments and continuity….its hardly one or two who access through mobiles who face this problem.
Today we may reach 1000 comments which means 15 pages..i dont think it looks good.
After 75 comment we suddenly see a new page, its like starting new and noone checks the previous page..So its of no use.
I access through my mobile yesterday, i did not face any problems in Opera Mini,
Tell them to use Opera, its faster
I agree….
if more comments are shown in a single page, thn it may take time to load..
Going to office after 10 days gap..Hate office….
But would be “Nilam” will keep me busy and obsessed…
It is shown as shear is going to reduce in tn,andhra…so its clear tat the storm is pushing the ridge out of chennai… Hint for landfall place cuddalore-pulicat.. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5sht.GIF
Look at the latest satellite picture… The system looks awesome… It just have to start moving north west to keep us entertained. We have spent a lot of time and money tracking it. It better provide some entertainment.
time yes, but money?
Time is money.. and the usage of internet connection is money 🙂
You got it perfect. Plus electricity, opportunity cost, etc.
Sampath are you a PMP Certified Project Manager by any chance 🙂
@ Chandru.. I am not a PMP but work with a lot of them on process migration…
It is going to skirt along the entire TN coast
its is already 8:30 ands JTWC has not updated anything on this system ??
be patient, 2 more minutes for 8:30
THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290330Z
Isnt 03:30 = 9 am?
see the final warning for son tinh, it is at 29 0300
3:00 = 8:30
GMT is 5:30 hour behind us
Still 48 hrs there for landfall…shear of 10knts, conditions r highly favourable so cat 1 cant be ruled out.
sel any changes in nilam movement still no rain in chennai what does it mean?
KEA is very active today. Something is gonna happen….. Or may be he wants to storm back to the top bloggers list. Lol.
Stalin,wait for few more hours.,on the way.
Ehsan, Did you check the ovi mail sent by me.Shall i provide ur mail and mobile number to her
give her my e-mail id
ok
What will come first?
IMD update (8:30 am)
JTWC update (9:00 am)
Ehsan,
If images and videos are restricted, it will load much faster in mobiles.
Yesterday’s post had lot of images.
Cyclones are the most unpredictible thing in the world. Its path will change in every update. Its better to keep our hopes low and not to be dissapointed later/
Thanks for your demotivational statement. Lol.
but lookin outside, it may be calm now.. But something is waiting for us..
Chandru i am a certified Project Management Professional, i did it through my office sponsoring me through MSME, Guindy
Great.. even am a PMI Certified PMP.. But of course i really dont get to use my PMP skills at work 😦
me never once because i work at a financial firm and not a project firm….lol
epic battle started two days back btween arb sea n bay… Bay kicked out arb sea.. King of ind ocean.
I completely forgot about Arabian sea system… What happened to that?
But Arabian sea is the king during the south west Monsoon.. 🙂
With no real cyclones or depressions it brings in loads and loads of moisture laden winds to the entire west coast…It is a silent yet powerful queen
Here on Nagapattinam it raining
Good morning all,
IMD forecast the rain may start from today afternoon. Severe Warning has been issues and wide spread rainfall forecast given.
Its cloudy and rather overcast right from purasawalkam to til the airport now..