303 thoughts on “Depression to intensify into Cyclone Nilam in the next 24 hrs and IMD does not yet know where it will cross the coast inTamil Nadu

  1. It will be interesting to see which district receives highest rainfall from this system. Will we get any surprises apart from the familiar ones in the northern coast?

    • Everyone is eagerly waiting for that. Pondy will definitely get rainfall from today but for us it has move a little north for the gain bands to reach us.

  2. For it to make landfall close to Chennai,it has to start tracking north and do so consistently for about 500km.I’m starting to doubt the path of the system.Don’t you bail on us..

  3. Per businessline, the system will make landfall near south east Tamil Nadu and then track north due to westerlies..


  4. @Jon.. I don’t think we should be much worried if it moves north as we will start getting rainfall. Yes if it makes landfall in TN it would give more rains but it is better to get some rains than no rains.

    • From the current shear tendency it seems the shear is reducing to the north which will show stable intensification as the center has freedom to wander bit north or south and it wont be affected by high shear as entire area would be covered by low shear.The stable intensification would start after 6-12 hours.

  5. BBC predicting that the DD will go near to N-E Srilanka by today noon and then move N-W by today night & move along central TN coast ..hitting chennai by tomorrow noon and moving to AP …


    (Issued at 12.00 noon. on 28th October 2012)

    The depression in the Bay of Bengal is likely to deepen in to a deep depression and move slowly to the west-northwestward. It is likely to be Centered about 400 km east of Trincomalee by tomorrow, 29th morning.

    Fishermen’s are requested to be vigilant about the strong winds, showery weather and rough seas in the sea areas off the coast from Jaffna to Batticaloa via Trincomalee.

    Generally cloudy conditions will prevail over the island and there will be showers or thundershowers accompanied by fairly strong winds at times especially in the Eastern, Northern and North central provinces(with scattered heavy falls).

  7. Finally the shear tendency is decreasing to the north of the system .Its a good sign and it shows much stable intensifcation is nearing as predicted by the models .Though the center the of the system not so good better band clouds are trying wrapping the system which is a good sign.The intensification would be much more stable after 6-12 hours as shear is slowly reducing over the north for the first time.

  8. Pradeep,The system would produce more than 20 cm if its going to move bit west-northwest.I also expect the same rain amount..If the system starts moving northwestward even this amount is less since the movement of system is pretty slow.

  9. Storm currently taking ECMWF’s path. ECMWF says it’ll go near lanka and curve towards N and hit chennai. I don’t think that would happen unless it reaches a tropical storm

  10. Guys , IMD tells different story. It says storm moved 0.1 S and 0.1 E till 2330 hrs. Looks like reorganization of LLCC. But you have to go with IMD as they are incharge of this storm and not nrlmry or noaa. Now according to IMD, 9.5 N and 84.5 E

  11. Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Coasts

    BOB 02/2012/02 Dated: 28.10. 2012
    Time of issue: 2030 hours IST
    Sub: Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal:
    Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts
    The depression over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 28thth October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.50N and longitude 85.00E, about 650 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 400 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka). The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently into a marginal cyclonic storm. The system would move westwards towards north Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coast.
    Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from tomorrow onwards.
    Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph would commence along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from 29thth October afternoon onwards. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from that period. Fishermen along north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts, who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast.
    The system is under constant surveillance.
    The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of 29th October, 2012

    • IMD is the best govt. weather organization in the world. See US,UK. They have different companies for different products. Namma IMD has everything in one website,simple and useful

  12. Most models now say by 1st Nov when thr storm closes in near chennai, the pressure will be at 990 MB.. is that enough pressure for a powerful cyclone ??

    Also considering that the system will move north west from North east SL and head into open waters towards the Chennai coast, that is a lot of movement over deep water enough to fuel storm intensification..

  13. Ada pavingala, neathiku naan oru thaan, Chennai 200 mm rain solitu irunthaan

    today everyone is saying in this blog Chennai Target.

    Dei thambi sudarsha, remember ur target 70 mm

    Meanwhile, GFS superb copy of ECMWF and all models ECMWF, BBC, NCMWRF, Tailwan, UKMO, Nogaps, CMC etc etc

    ALL SHOW Chennai Landfall


  14. I hope it doesnt get pushed beyond 1st November.. Illaena en flight chennai vittu kelambadhu… who knows may be it is a blessing in disguise…

    On another note i have a very villanous thought.. This storm might move past chennai and head into souuth or central AP… ???
    Does anyone feel that way ….

  15. Top Commenters in last Comments

    Pradeep John 118
    hr649 111
    Sudharshan Madhavan 111
    sampathca 97
    selvanfun 68
    jon 67
    vinodh1986 62

    After long time sudaharshan is pushed down…he topped the charts continuously for over a month

  16. Cyclone going to cross S. Andhra according to BBC. If this happens, Chennai will get atleast minimum 350 mm. Only problem is duration is too less. Cyclone will cross Wednesday morning. Rains have not started yet. In less than 48 hours rains will be over. How much Chennai can get in approx 36 hours?

  17. Pradeep, currently WordPress page splits every 75 comments from 150 comments earlier. Is this too less? I changed it yesterday as someone said it takes too long to load.

    • its less, we loose important comments and continuity….its hardly one or two who access through mobiles who face this problem.

      Today we may reach 1000 comments which means 15 pages..i dont think it looks good.

      After 75 comment we suddenly see a new page, its like starting new and noone checks the previous page..So its of no use.

      I access through my mobile yesterday, i did not face any problems in Opera Mini,

      Tell them to use Opera, its faster

  18. Look at the latest satellite picture… The system looks awesome… It just have to start moving north west to keep us entertained. We have spent a lot of time and money tracking it. It better provide some entertainment.

  19. KEA is very active today. Something is gonna happen….. Or may be he wants to storm back to the top bloggers list. Lol.

      • But Arabian sea is the king during the south west Monsoon.. 🙂
        With no real cyclones or depressions it brings in loads and loads of moisture laden winds to the entire west coast…It is a silent yet powerful queen

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