Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts

keaweather 2012, KEA Blog, NEM12

The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 29thOctober 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.50N and longitude 84.00E, about 550 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 300 km east-northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka). The system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move westwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31stOctober, 2012 evening/night.

309 thoughts on “Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts”

  2. it looks that kea’s location is surrounded by clouds. eagerly waiting for the first drop of rain from this system

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  9. NOW IMD ALSO ACCEPTED AND UPDATED OUR SAME STATUS…

    DD will move to N.SL will last till today eveng..and start the movement of W-NW from today night and swipe the entire central TN coast tomorrow and will hit chennai by tomorrow night and moving to S.AP on wednesday..

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  14. @pradeep, do u have the url of univ of Wisconsin storm tracker site which we followed during laila,jal n thane? Seems i have lost it

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  16. This is unimaginable. This will cross MHB coast and travel northwards between arakkonam and chennai, then to AP.

    Rain till 01st Nov 2012. Imagine the quantum of rainfall. TS can be expected through out the night of 31st October.

    This was happened once. I remember the cyclone crossed coast near Cuddalore one evening and travelled north in between chennai and arcot.

    That night was horrible. It was a huge thunder storms lashing the whole night. Just that night we have received 15CM.

    I never experience that amount TS in my life. Whole chennai was afraid to come out. It was a black out.

    KEA do you remember that year???

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  19. yajuradhithya – the answer is no one really knows if it will move south or move north. All these are predictions. Some more accurate than others. Why dont we wait till today evening/tomorrow morning before further clarity is seen ?
    Its all the fault of the experts. They create so much expectation and hype that when it does not happen quickly enough the ordinary person is left frustrated.

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  26. What is absolutely ridiculous is the way the tv media is showing Sandy hurricane on TV without paying any attention to the one here. Shows the extent of their thinking.

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    • the news Channels in US concentrate on Sandy.. The thing is, the local channels here may not be much aware of the current situations here.. If the IMD or local RMC comes out with tracking page or continues updates, they’l focus on this storm..

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      • I wouldnt expect the US channels to concentrate on Nilam or even mention it in passing. How about NDTV or Times Now or Headlines Today even mention a single line about Nilam ?

      • Uh, tey are not local channels here… Ours is sun tv, jaya tv, pudhiya thalaimurai, etc.. these channels itself not concerned much abt it. so y those NDTV, etc shld follow nilam???

  30. Cuddalore was powerless for one month during Thane. What abt for Nilam in Chennai ? .If that happens, TN will get uninterrupted power supply for a month

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    • we the bloggers want 80KM/hr wind in chennai and the truth is we will not get electricity for the next few weeks. We can expect rains, not stromic winds / rains which will spoil the economy of the poor people and lives of few. Anyway nothing is in our hand, and lets not expect a cyclone to cross Chennai or any other area. if its crossing as a DD which will give enough rainfall with less wind speed

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  34. Selvan/Raja,

    I have updated in the morning itself that this system will cross near Mahabalipuram. I was the first to update.

    Please check my comments in the morning.

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  40. raja,dont worry if it is lp,it will rain for whole day and v will get around 10cm or 12cm… incase of cyclone or DD,if it POURS for 5 HOURS figures will be crossing 20cm in no time… ongole got 55cm from laila in 24 hrs i think,,,wrt to our system,if it moves slowly, v can make some huge figures

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  59. Forecast at 11.30AM.

    BOB 02/2012/05 Dated: 29.10. 2012 Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
    Sub: Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts
    The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 29thOctober 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.50N and longitude 83.50E, about 530 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 270 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka). The system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move westwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31stOctober, 2012 evening/night. Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the table below :

    DATE/TIME(IST) POSITION (LAT. 0N/ LONG. 0E) (KMPH)CATEGORY

    29-10-2012/0830 9.5/83.5 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
    29-10-2012/1130 9.5/83.3 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
    29-10-2012/1730 9.5/83.2 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
    29-10-2012/2330 9.5/82.9 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
    30-10-2012/0530 9.7/82.6 75-85 GUSTING TO 95 CYCLONIC STORM
    30-10-2012/1730 10.0/82.0 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
    31-10-2012/0530 10.7/81.5 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
    31-10-2012/1730 12.3/80.5 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
    01-11-2012/0530 14.0/79.5 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
    01-11-2012/1730 16.0/78.5 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 LOW

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  68. Yajuradithya,

    You are frustrated.

    Rain bands have not reached chennai as of now.

    As per WV insat pic it is still not with in the reach of chennai. Hope this will reach us by tonight.

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  69. All of you,

    Please stop confusing. This system is going to hit TN, that is for sure.

    As of now the intesification process is going on. During any intensification the circumference of clouds will be minimum. Once the system near the lanka coast the rain bands will pick up and rain will start smashing.

    Please have patience till evening. Do not hurry. This forecast has been given by me for the past 4 days.

    No more queries on the rain and movement of this system.

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  76. Update from SL Met department (http://www.meteo.gov.lk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=61&Itemid=70&lang=en)

    BAD WEATHER ADVISORY

    Issued at 29th October 2012 at 1030hrs valid for next 24 hours

    (Issued by Early Warning Center of the Department of Meteorology)

    The depression has intensified into deep depression and was located about 200 km East of Mullaitivu at 0830 hours today (29). It is likely to move Westward causing heavy showers and strong winds over most parts of the country and surrounding sea areas. It is expected to intensify further in to a marginal cyclone ( not severe ) and move over northern part of Sri Lanka tonight.

    Shallow and deep sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Batticaloa via Trincomalee will experience very rough conditions, strong winds and intermittent rain. Therefore fishing and naval community is advised to refrain from maritime activities in these seas. Most parts of the island will experience rainy conditions. Strong winds and very heavy rain falls (more than 150 mm) will also occur in the Eastern, Northern, North- central and North -western provinces. Scattered heavy rain falls (more than 100 mm) are also expected elsewhere

    The situation is being continuously monitored, and the public is advised to be vigilant to the weather information released by the Department of Meteorology.

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    • Interestingly this forecast predicts a westward movement and also movement over North Lanka. That means the system will be in Palk strait and a best case scenario for heavy rain all over TN.

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  79. THERE IS DIVERGENCE IN NWP MODEL GUIDANCE THEREAFTER AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND ADJOINING SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST AND SOME OTHER MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUOUS WESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH SRI LANKA COAST.

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  81. Some rainfall figures from Nilam as on 29.10.2012

    in mm

    Sembanar Koil – 135
    Nannilam – 107
    Karaikal – 107
    Nagapattinam – 98
    Manimuthar – 68
    Cuddalore – 67
    Kulasekaram – 62
    Vedaranayam – 61
    Kilvelur – 59
    Kanai – 43
    Pamban – 42
    Tirutturaippoondi – 41
    Perunchani – 40

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    • Trangambadi (Nagapattinam Dist) 13, Karaikal (Karaikal Dist) 11, Nannilam (Tiruvarur Dist) and Nagapattinam (Nagapattinam Dist) 10 each, Manimutharu (Tirunelveli Dist), Cuddalore (Cuddalore Dist), Tiruvarur (Tiruvarur Dist) and Sirkali (Nagapattinam Dist) 7 each, Vedaranyam (Nagapattinam Dist) 6, Mylaudy and Kuzhithurai (both Kanyakumari Dist), Marakkanam (Villupuram Dist), Pandavaiyar head (Tiruvarur Dist) and Rameswaram (Ramanathapuram Dist) 5 each, Thiruthuraipoondi, Kodavasal and Mannargudi (all Tiruvarur Dist), Pamban (Ramanathapuram Dist), Kollidam (Nagapattinam Dist), Chidambaram AWS (Cuddalore Dist), Kanyakumari and Nagercoil (both Kanyakumari Dist) and Vanur (Villupuram Dist) 4 each, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam Dist), Needamangalam, Muthupet and Valangaiman (all Tiruvarur Dist), Mahabalipuram (Kancheepuram Dist), Pattukottai and Madukkur (both Thanjavur Dist), Sethiathope (Cuddalore Dist), Pechiparai (Kanyakumari Dist), Ambasamudram (Tirunelveli Dist) and Tindivanam (Villupuram Dist) 3 each,

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  92. I think rain bands are starting to affect chennai.

    Max temp is down, wind average is increasing from time to time.

    We can expect rain before 8 o clock tonight.

    What do you think selvan????

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    • Sat image won’t give you clear idea whether it will rain or not unless we have dedicated radar in Madurai for south TN. Look at WV image, you get fair idea .

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  94. As per Rajesh sir blog DD will hit sivaganga and ramand

    BB-10, depression, and getting deep, is now at 9.6N 83.7E, almost stationary since our last report ( Yesterday, below), as a depression at 1000 mb and getting deep. Just East off the Northern tip of Sri Lanka, it will move along the projected track and hit Central regions of Coastal TN, near, Sivaganga and Ramanathpuram, as a deep Depression.
    Coastal regions of TN will be gusty with 35-40 knts winds and Chennai as expected strong NE winds.
    Peak of the precipitation will be in central TN with some places getting upto 12-15 cms and maybe 18 cms in the odd place.

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  100. IMD Mid Day bulletin is also out.. Nothing much except that they expect wide spread rainfall in Tamil Nadu starting today for the next 3 days.

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