Expecting intermittent spells of rain from today

Conditions are favourable for the Depression to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone. Currently positioned at 9.5N, 84.2E with intensity 35kts, 997hpa and expected to move further Westwards, resulting in widespread rain along the TN coast. Also, JTWC has upgraded its report on 93W’s Tropical Cyclone formation as ‘HIGH’ and issued its offical warning at 0900IST.

825 thoughts on “Expecting intermittent spells of rain from today

  1. Looks like Nagapattinam to vedaranyam started getting rains! would be nice if it extends to till North TN coast by tomorrow morning!

  2. Looks like it has moved south west and looking good to cross GOM unless it moves north when it nears the coast..

    rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012

  3. Colostate.edu has started tracking the Arabian sea system as well…

    rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=IO962012

      • Remember thane, just watch the hourly images, its evident we will get rains only from outer bands. The rains wont be very heavy initially.

        After crossing the coast, the storm actually moves north, thats when we get the heaviest of the rains from 30th evening or night our heaviest rains starts. Dont be surprised, we can easily get 200 to 250 mm in the 3-4 days from 29 to 1st

  4. Hello,

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  5. A drip down to 9.8N, 85.8E with intensity 20 😦

    dist from chennai 701km
    dist to nearest land – Batticaloa – SL – 575km

  6. I hope the system moves a more North westerly direction and then start moving west.. Otherwise chennai doesnt stand to get that much rains

  7. Finally the Depression has come underneath the anticyclone which willl shield the system from high shear and would produce great outflow.The shear is starting to reduce near the TN coast which will favour rapid intensification once it comes near the coast.According to ECMWF and GFS landfall should be close to south of cuddalore.

  8. Taiwan Model
    ———————-
    29th midnight – Storm crosses Central TN

    but on 30th – Super heavy to Chennai, just like BBC

    Till 31st the yellow spot stays in north TN

      • He feels TN and Karnataka are turning into deserts. and Gujarat and rajasthan into fertile lands

        MAy be banglore failed miserably just 68 mm in their wettest month which is september when they get around 250 mm and Bangalore AP got even worse 27.

        If we get just 50 mm in our wettest month November. Many people in this blog will comment like him.

        He did not get one point even gujarat and West Rajasthan situation was so grim till september many places was without rain for 10 months

        Just like you posted….its one off year… last year they got around which was 30 % above their average.

        The law of averages will always catch-up

    • It depends on the intensity and position of arabian system.If the depression in bay intensifies rapidly then Arabian system would not show major intensification until bay system fizzles out.

  9. it will be good if the Storm takes a north westerly movement and brushes along the coast and moves up tp South Coastal AP andf then moves inland.This way both TN and S.AP will benefit.The last few years the North East Monsoon ha snot been beneficial; to Rayalaseema and S.AP.. They also dont get much during the south west monsoon ..

  10. rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012

    It has intensified but moved further down 😦 hope if moves a but north before landfall… But I do remember models predicting it to dip south and then bounce back north.

  11. Now instead of moving south by 1 degree,it moved by 0.1. This might indicate the start of its westerly movement. The grey outer bands will be filled with thunderstorms during landfall as NEM clouds develop when they hit the land and also wet MJO phase has arrived.

  12. My family doesn’t believe when I tell them we might get light rains later today as it is sunny out here at Mandaveli.

    • This was what I was asking yesterday whether it will become like the other cyclone… Hope if moves north before landfall.

  13. Intense convection seen in and around the system.,shear 5-10knts..so its getting relaxed as much it can,so it wil reach TS status by noon i guess.. tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

  14. System should get into TS status if it wants to move W-Nw… It has the potential to move the ridge bit north… Today ther was no dew,no cold winds so the ridge has moved 4m us.so the storm may hav a turn to central tn coast .

  15. nagapattinam fully drenched in rain and still going and today i will reach home at 8pm i will update u now and then

  16. For us to get rain,the depression needs to move west.Currently all thunderstorms in the outer bands are circulating and hitting mahabalipuram. We’ll need to wait a few more hours before real rains from the system.

  17. @jon i ll update every 1hour about delta status…between rainrate increases every hour..itz gloomy out here…my hall temp 24deg…outsside may be around 22…we r shelving goat fr sacrifice day…but rain could nt allow..we need a break rainnnnn

  18. Even though the storm moves in WSW direction the convection is covering upto south AP.

    The heavy rain will affect TN, Kerala and South AP for next 3 days.

    25CM for chennai cannot be ruled out.

    • There is less wind shear in bay as of now. Also the HPA is limited to north TN and Central Bay, hence the initial movement is WSW.

      After nearing north tip of srilanka the wind shear is strong in comorin and arabian sea area hence the movement of this storm is pushed wnw and make it to landfall between chennai and nagai.

      This is the reason for storm to move wnw after nearing lanka.

      • Thank you.I didn’t think of the arabian sea shear factor.After which latitude can we expect it to start moving w-nw?The latest readings indicate the the w-sw movement has started decreasing..

  19. The new text out from JTWC and it reduced the chances for TS

    BIO10 PGTW 280400
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
    /REISSUED/280400Z-281800ZOCT2012//
    RMKS/
    1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
    86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
    NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A
    CLOUD-COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280007Z SSMIS
    IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST
    CONVECTION TO THE EAST. EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALED 25-30
    KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH WEAKER (10-15 KNOT)
    WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
    JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
    THIS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36
    HOURS AS THE STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASING
    ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS HIGH.
    (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
    2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
    3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
    HIGH.//
    NNNN

  20. lat gfs(00 gmt precipitation 6hr) shows the system crossing just to N of nagai n pushing its way towards Chennai.so landfall area now a bit N

  21. What is the pressure of the system currently and it’s wind speed?Would also be helpful if anyone can provide a link.

  22. some guys in our blog are confusing with JTWC alert.JTWC has replaced
    the word good= high
    fair= Medium
    poor= low.
    They stopped using the word good,fair and poor last year itself

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