kea I think there shld be a picture of chennai, in rainy day.. then change that to foggy picture during winter and sunny during summer… – the picture right above the KEA WEATHER STATION in kea.metsite
Things r changing rapidly…..ridge giving the way for the system to use entire TN stretch for landfall … & upper level conditions r turning favourable for the system to develop….
Most models r showing the track direction as w-sw-w… ecmwf:Nagai-cuddalore. Nogaps:jaffna ,n.lankan tip. Canada model-nagai. they hav took yestrday data,so tday’s run would be interesting …
The change is very minimal. The change is from Northern tip of srilanka to Chennai Coast.
we’l have to wait until it intensifies.. these models keep changing with changing factors around it.. so once it is of full strength, we can predict it
Look at this one, landfall between Chennai and Nagai.
BBC PREDICT IT WILL CROSS PONDY OR CUDDALORE ITS AFFECT 40% FOR CHENNAI AT LEAST 10 TO 2O CM RAIN BUT PONDY AND CUDDALORE WILL AFFECT VERY MUCH SEVERE FLOODS LIKE VILLUPURAM DIST NAGAI DISTRICT TIRUVARUR DIST THANJAVORE DIST AFFECT MOSTLY. RAIN BELT AREA FROM PONDY TO KANYAKUMARI
ARB Sea is throwing a second cyclone….ARB is very busy this year..
.due to this cyc.. our bay system is intensifying and moving towards SW and this bay system will intensify more when it reaches the land due to the moisture present in ARB Sea…
There is no relationship between BOB and Arabian Sea System.
In fact the BOB LPA is currently setting the wind pattern in BOB and Arabian Sea.
WSW wind due to this BOB system. The same pull effect is happening in Arabian Sea also.
After some more intensification and landfall in BOB there is going to be lot wind shear between BOB and Arabian Sea. Both the systems cannot influence each other.
Arb sea ,tis developing low will hav more chance to develop into cyclone…. It is supported by low shear,,moreover its falling under monsoon trough .so it may develop easily ..bay system is fighting against lot of obstacles.. Lets c ,, bay or arb sea ah ne..
Rain/thundershowers at a few places over south peninsular India, Lakshadweep and
Andaman & Nicobar Islands with increase over Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh from 31st
October. 😎
BoB LPA will strenghten into a DD and will make landfall b/w Chennai and Cuddalore somewhere close to Marakkanam by wednesday atmost, as forecasted by the ever reliable BBC…..TN should brace itself for some Heavy continuous downpour starting Monday evening…..Intermittent showers might start as early as sunday night or early morning of monday….
This is absolutely dramatic situation. If IMD knows the situation they should be informing government now to take necessary steps to avoid loss of lives.
IMD is very relaxed and watching the develpment as of now.
In my area selaiyur, roads are already digged up for laying under ground sewage pipes.
Jtwc told that low is at 12’n80.4’e. Chennai is at 13.08’n90.4’e. If the low moves NW it will go to north coastal andhra. If it comes like thane and intensify whole TN coast will be battered. Iam from pondy
Parthi, pl check chennai wikipedia and jtwc. Chennai is at 13.08’n80.27’e preciously and low at 12.0’n80.4’e. It should be atleast 9 to 10’n for us to get rains because the northern band of either low or cyclone is having rain bearing cloud because the either low or cyclone spin clockwise in northern hemisphere
KeaWeather Archives 
looks like another cyclone in Arabian sea, ECMWF is showing one in Arabian sea…
Murjan Images
Murjan Landfall
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=79506
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Murjan_prt.htm
Murjan Etrap analyisis
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html
Another image of murjan
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/image_1kmsrrgb.asp?storm_identifier=IO012012&product_filename=2012IO01_1KMSRRGB_201210250715
Cyclone Nilam
CDAC super Computer shows some circulation developing on 27th
http://rtws.cdac.in/precipitation_daily.html
Cyclone Nilam – Target Chennai – ECMWF
Copy the entire link and paste it
@pradeep, gud morning !!!!! when do u sleep?????
i am problem with my sleeping due to heavy loads of work….1.00 to 6.00 am is my normal time
oops…i have problem with my sleeping
looks most people become nocturnal during NEM !!!!!
cat5hurricane yeah ! everyone will be active day and night..
Cyclone Bandu was the last storm in 2010 to impact Somalia with heavy rains
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2010/h2010_02a.html
@Raijin
Can you pls send the template to Kea78@outlook.com?
I will see if its possible to implement it with the codings of the virtual weather station.
Low pressure still alive near port blair
btw looks like hr649 could sleep today
obviously ! 😀 🙂 jus now woke up
I guess we had early morning downpour for 4 days ..
BBC Predicting a DEP near chennai on Mon 29th night..
looking at the wind direction (South east), the LPA should be near SSW of Port blair
pls read as wind direction of port blair
cyclone threat for karachi
jon is tat the LP crossing east and west coast, gaining strength and another LP and hitting Pak ??
i think its a separate system
metcast still predicts massive rain for chennai from 29th
Hi All,
Good Morning,
Heavy foggy morning. Nice to wake up but hate to come to office.
not here parthasri
ECMWF model predicts with more instensity of BOB storm.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!120!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012102512!!/
It has become cloudy suddenly at Mandaveli…
No rain likely
Back to hot and humid….
yessss… a dry phase…..
BBC forecast is really pathetic. They say the storm cross coast on 29th itself.
Horrible.
but they are gud in monitoring LP
Storm intensity on 28th.
http://www2.tmd.go.th/program/nwp_pro/UMtoGrADS/wrf_nwp-tmd_research/images/domain2/asia_mslp.html
KEA,
What happened to CAM angle. What is there, is it a flower pot in front?
rofl… jus nw saw that !! I think somebody kept the pot ter….
yes, also they have changed the place of CAM.
oh… but I’m not sure abt tat..
kea I think there shld be a picture of chennai, in rainy day.. then change that to foggy picture during winter and sunny during summer… – the picture right above the KEA WEATHER STATION in kea.metsite
The latest forecast.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getglobe.cgi?lat=13&lon=81
Things r changing rapidly…..ridge giving the way for the system to use entire TN stretch for landfall … & upper level conditions r turning favourable for the system to develop….
lots of -50 and -40
Hr,
I do agree with you, the rain symbol for this season must be placed near the “KEA Weather Station Chennai”.
That picture should not be a cartoon, it can be a realistic one.
KEA,
If you could update the background accornding to the climate in chennai, then it would be more attractive.
Accuweather is doing it. You can check that site for ideas.
By seeing this cloud temp, i feel the LPA must be situated in south of -50 & -40 CTT.
Approx 12N & 93.0E. It has not emerged into Bay as of now.
Nilam intensifying. It is better initial models take the storm away from Chennai. Most of the forcasts of 72+ hrs flops.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP932012
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/12102518/47.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/12102518/42.html
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/nwp/96hgfs_mslp.htm
Vorticbob,
What i projected in my previous comment was correct.
Most models r showing the track direction as w-sw-w… ecmwf:Nagai-cuddalore. Nogaps:jaffna ,n.lankan tip. Canada model-nagai. they hav took yestrday data,so tday’s run would be interesting …
12.0 inches of rain predicted. Which is equal to 30CM.
http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=&stn=KHAT&model=nam&time=current&field=DEF
Arabian sea may steal Nilam too
ya looks like tat.. but we’ve to wait
so gloomy it is
yeah !! something is passing by
Slightly foggy and chilly morning here in bengaluru.. minimum drops to 17.7 at hal ap and 18.7 in city..
we’l enjoy tat weather in few days..
Storm shown as heading nw wen it is near to coast http://www2.tmd.go.th/mm5/images/rsm/1/pcp_0005.gif
Selvan,
Looks like it is crossing between Chennai and Pondi???
Wind shear is decreasing in Bay and increasing trend in Andaman.
LPA still in andaman sea. Shear is reducing in Bay will strengthen the system more.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Lower convergence in South East Bay and Andaman Sea.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
heaviest of rains for S TN acc to lat gfs
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pr06&HH=84&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
look at the arabian sea system.. !! amazing..
Yes Jon,
The landfall expected near Nagapattinam. The Puyal Nagaram.
http://www.incois.gov.in/Incois/indofos_wind_regional.jsp?selectbox1=bay_of_bengal&selectbox2=wind&selectbox3=01-11-2012–1130
forecast is vry confusing.changing all the time 😦
The change is very minimal. The change is from Northern tip of srilanka to Chennai Coast.
we’l have to wait until it intensifies.. these models keep changing with changing factors around it.. so once it is of full strength, we can predict it
Look at this one, landfall between Chennai and Nagai.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
acc to gfs system will move in wsw dir n push into GOM which wil have minimal impact on chennai
ECMWF shows system will move in WNW n cross somewhere btw nagai n chennai
but it may spiral totally towards NW also.. Murjan had WNW track,, but it may not be the same here..
BBC PREDICT IT WILL CROSS PONDY OR CUDDALORE ITS AFFECT 40% FOR CHENNAI AT LEAST 10 TO 2O CM RAIN BUT PONDY AND CUDDALORE WILL AFFECT VERY MUCH SEVERE FLOODS LIKE VILLUPURAM DIST NAGAI DISTRICT TIRUVARUR DIST THANJAVORE DIST AFFECT MOSTLY. RAIN BELT AREA FROM PONDY TO KANYAKUMARI
Port Blair has recorded 19MM. More rain on the way.
expected one…
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=144&focus=mh
Cola’s update for the day. Seems not much rain.
Will have to wait for another 48 hours.
Foreca has constructed lots of sky scrappers from 29th. Still very less for a storm.
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
Forecast for Port Blair – IMD :- A few spells of rain or thundershower, a spell may be heavy. Maximum temperature will be around 30 deg. celsius.
They also have heavy rainfall forecast for 2mrw..
http://125.21.185.44/citywx/city_weather1.php?id=43333
Post SW monsoon rainfall in India :-
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/climate/oct-dec-rainfall.htm
Coastal TN and Kerala – more beneficent
kerala receiving from both monsoons..
coonoor – 23
Erode – 8
Kalavai – 6
Namakkal – 6
Mailam – 4
Vedasandur – 3
Ooty – 3
i think arabian sea system mite pull the bay system.tats why gfs predicting a sw mvmt of bay system
arab sys might move NW.. so the pull may vary.. also, the bay sys will pull colder winds from NE..
tats rite,pull mite vary
Also it looks lik bay sys, strengthening near north Andaman..
Steady westerly movement seen for the past 12 hrs..but the Movement is very slow,waiting for more favourable conditions to develop.
Nilam could form in Arabian sea and move towards Pak-Indo border, I hope it does because its been a while since we saw such storms..
ya models also predicting the possibility of nilam in Arabian sea…. but we’ve to wait..
LPA is exactly on the islands now.
Present intensity of LPA.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
CTT -20 there..
ARB Sea is throwing a second cyclone….ARB is very busy this year..
.due to this cyc.. our bay system is intensifying and moving towards SW and this bay system will intensify more when it reaches the land due to the moisture present in ARB Sea…
Heavy to heavy rains is on the way by monday…
exactly arabian sea syatem will cause pull effect over tn.so expect hvy rains
There is no relationship between BOB and Arabian Sea System.
In fact the BOB LPA is currently setting the wind pattern in BOB and Arabian Sea.
WSW wind due to this BOB system. The same pull effect is happening in Arabian Sea also.
After some more intensification and landfall in BOB there is going to be lot wind shear between BOB and Arabian Sea. Both the systems cannot influence each other.
These 2 systems may run parallelly.
its just my assumption.need not be rite
Jon,
This will give you the clear picture. This is the convergence.
Both BOB and ARB Sea are happening parallally.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=conv&zoom=&time=
One more example of both systems in Arb Sea and BOB are not related.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=
I assume that, due to arb sea system west coast is going get affected.
This system runs far away from the coast. The effect could be only at the time of landfall.
Warning by accuweather – Chennai – :- Rain, some heavy, and thunderstorms to affect the area from Monday morning into late Friday night
My God,
Another updation from them, till morning they were saying.
Rain from sunday night thru friday morning.
LPA stregthening.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=vor&zoom=&time=
Meanwhile, Coonoor – 24
Erode – 8
according to AWS, coonoor has recorded 0.6*c ???
Arb sea ,tis developing low will hav more chance to develop into cyclone…. It is supported by low shear,,moreover its falling under monsoon trough .so it may develop easily ..bay system is fighting against lot of obstacles.. Lets c ,, bay or arb sea ah ne..
Ncep /Noaa predicts 10 days of flooding rains for entire tn..aftr bay system,arb sea system pull effect wil play a role..
s… same scenario happend last year i guess
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/forecast/rain5.htm
shows chennai
ecwmf predicts landfall over vedaranyam
tindi 5cm
IMD mid-day report.
UAC lies over south andaman sea. Will intensify into LPA in next 24 hours.
Not Yet?
s lp has not formed yet
Rain/thundershowers at a few places over south peninsular India, Lakshadweep and
Andaman & Nicobar Islands with increase over Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh from 31st
October. 😎
@kea
i have sent u the new design with existing structure to ur outlook id.
check if it can integrated with live feed data
bbc too has changed it forecast.now dep/ts mite cross cdl/pdy
so almost all the models are predicting the same……..
so if the arab sys moves north, this one can be pulled to chennai…
it wont move N atleast till 31st
After Nisha, i am seeing the yellow spot in BBC
UAC in BOB pulling the winds from NE direction. More Thunder Clouds formation in Andaman. CTT may touch -50C.
NCMWRF Model Chennai Rainfall on 30th
120 mm
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/t574-meteo-agro/wche1.htm
@kea
Happy Bakrid
@jon
aiiiyoooo!!!!! 😦 😆 😮
oh yea, tats y hes not here…. Anyways wishes to kea !!
BoB LPA will strenghten into a DD and will make landfall b/w Chennai and Cuddalore somewhere close to Marakkanam by wednesday atmost, as forecasted by the ever reliable BBC…..TN should brace itself for some Heavy continuous downpour starting Monday evening…..Intermittent showers might start as early as sunday night or early morning of monday….
Rain in TN in Oct 2012.
Normal – 151.3MM
Actual – 226.8MM
Departure – +50%
its gng to +60 by the end of the month..
landfall might be near nagapattinam..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/12102600/35.html
will this guy we cyclone ?
Coastal TN, jamnagar to karachi – expecting rainfall
http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
heavy* rainfall
TN going to be under water during month end.
This is absolutely dramatic situation. If IMD knows the situation they should be informing government now to take necessary steps to avoid loss of lives.
IMD is very relaxed and watching the develpment as of now.
In my area selaiyur, roads are already digged up for laying under ground sewage pipes.
everywhere is the same situation.. In my area tey started works for renovating the roads but d move was put down
If d gov. Really cares, it would’ve sort IMD’s help not for only announcing holidays wen it rains..
foreca predicting monstrous rainfall for karaikal staring from 29th
http://foreca.com/India/Union_Territory_of_Puducherry/karaikal
not bad for chennai too 🙂
Foreca is predicting in mm that too 30, 40 during this time???
Is it reliable??
jon also look at the wind speed forecast in foreca!!!!
35m/hr wind @ karaikal.nothing for chennai though
might be closer to landfall..
Latest satellite imagery.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatglobe-ir.htm
gud circulation visible
Yes jon,
Do you think that do we still need to wait for 24 hours to form a LPA??
may be not.its already formed 🙂
looks lik its intensifying..
another low ?
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=240&focus=mh
Jtwc told that low is at 12’n80.4’e. Chennai is at 13.08’n90.4’e. If the low moves NW it will go to north coastal andhra. If it comes like thane and intensify whole TN coast will be battered. Iam from pondy
Another which is forming on 05th November must be moving to north.
Dinagar,
I think you have interchanged. Chennai is at 12.0N & 80.4E & LPA at 13.08′n90.4′e.
This is the good news.
LPA is in 1500KM East of Chennai.
in Sun news tey said its 950kms
lat gfs not looking gud for chnnai
at least other places wil be blessed..
lets c it keeps changing
Jon,
I think it is not possible for DD to travel through gulf of mannar with same intensity.
There have been past records that once a storm is reached gulf then it weakens into LPA.
As per this GFS system they have shown the same intensity maintained.
I think we have to wait for some more time. GFS models are inaccurate for more than 4 days time.
tats right regarding mannar, but the other models showin d landfall between chennai and nagapatinam
but its sure if its chennai or east coast, it’ll intensify in arabian sea
Parthi, pl check chennai wikipedia and jtwc. Chennai is at 13.08’n80.27’e preciously and low at 12.0’n80.4’e. It should be atleast 9 to 10’n for us to get rains because the northern band of either low or cyclone is having rain bearing cloud because the either low or cyclone spin clockwise in northern hemisphere
Chennai is at 80.27 fine, but now you are saying low is at 80.4E??
Which is closer to chennai???
rain bands should provide hvy rain for chennai since the system spins anti clockwise.nisha was the best eg
Port Blair under batter
port blair 44mm till 14:30
it may have 60 to 70mm rain
Since it revolves anti clock wise, it moves in SW direction.
Sorry it is counter clockwise or anticlockwise in northern hemisphere