The arabian sea system surprised forecasters and intensified into a cyclonic system and heading towards Somalia. Our system has entered BOB and it would be interesting to see whether it can intensify.
The arabian sea system surprised forecasters and intensified into a cyclonic system and heading towards Somalia. Our system has entered BOB and it would be interesting to see whether it can intensify.
KeaWeather Archives 
PWP has started giving updates for Somalia Cyclone
http://pakistanweatherportal.com/2012/10/24/double-tropical-activity-in-north-indian-ocean-special-coverage/
Satellite image of the cyclone
PDC’s Superb page with Population map
http://www.pdc.org/atlas/?id=5993
We can also map historical cyclone tracks
NASA’s TRMM satellite sees birth of Arabian Sea cyclone
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/nsfc-nts102412.php
Its rainning heavily in saidapet
heavy rain in guindy
raining
Kea showing no sign of rain
clouds haven’t reached ter
crossing 10mm
intensity not reducing
still heavy heavy rain
15mm
15mm in. Just this shower
yes
now down to heavy
now moderate
Super heavy rains in Mandaveli…
Raining in Anna Nagar
seems raining heavily in nunga
Now down to drizzles.
What a rain?
Rainfall so far from the TS
Marina – 14 mm
Meenambakkam 13 mm
Nunga Kea – 13 mm
Kolapakkam 8 mm
Taramani 5 mm
pouring now.we had a sharp shower at 3
ya jon.. Tis time it was lil earlier
Looks like it has started again in Nunga. Buy no rains in Mandaveli…
@ KEA… Could you please confirm whether it is raining heavily there AGAIN? Nothing is there in the radar…
its pouring heavily here
what a rain..for 20 mins..now stopped
Hi…I am back to chennai from native…
What a welcome given by chennai to me….
It was sultry climate in Krishnagiri…Very dry…
@Kea, I have heard that during SW monsoon time when Somalian jet is at its peak, the somlian coast would have gales reaching 100kmph daily in the morning hours… Also there would be dense fog only near the seashore (just like pirates of carribean movie) and day temperatures would be lesser than night temperature near the coast… Is all the above true ?
How it would be during NEM ???
I guess till we get the one in Andaman sea either as a cyclone, DD or LPA, we can get our averages going with the help of these early morning showers yielding 1 or 2 cms….
may not be on everyday !
Rainfall so far from the TS
Nunga Kea – 18 mm
Marina – 14 mm
Meenambakkam 13 mm
Taramani 13 mm
Madhavaram – 11 mm
Kolapakkam 8 mm
Poonamalle – 3 mm
guindy 14
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/?lt=wzireg&lc=asia&mt=accessg&mc=mslp&mso=0&mh=168&focus=mh
Next set of NEM showers nearing Chennai.
From morning 2.00 am this is the case….from no where they popup
NE is pitch black
Hmm the present low near Kanyakumari will become Nilam and also goes to Somalia as a significant cyclone
Can Southern district such as Kanyakumari and 3T’s ( Tuticorin, Theni, Tirunelveli districts) benefit from this low
Very dense clouds covering Kanyakumari
sure tey wil
CMC differs Cyclone Nilam target is Chennai
Nogaps also agrees with CMC – Nilam Target is Chennai
East is getting darker.. Another spell of raining is on its way….
**** rain
you vil be the 1st one to receive rain from tis TS
Guess it has fizzled out. Clouds moved over with a drop of rain… East looks brighter now.
is it? But its gettin darker here
Look at the SRI radar… It has got broken into multiple smaller ones.. May be isolated showers… But nothing for my area… Mandaveli..
No answers for my question
we’ve incoming from east
but it may not strengthen lik the current murjan
@pradeep but it may not strengthen like the current one
Light drizzles now…. But no clouds on top.. 🙂
clouds on top here but no rain
You will probably get light rains after the clouds move south west… The end of those clouds brought rains here.. Now almost stopped.
not even tat here. Rain near omr i guess
Waiting for rainbow. Little Sunny and raining….
@kea you haven’t added the option to view 5day data in mobile site
what rains here
Where?
thiruvanmiyur
Hi All,
Chennai October rainfall crossed 300MM.
yeah !! But may not reach ur target
BL: Opposite winds from western disturbances and lack of sufficient sea-surface temperatures (which fuels system intensity) are cited as unhelpful conditions for bob system….. lol.
Sel: I am the sole winner in this competition predicting no cyclone 3-4 days back
BAY system is now disturbed by the dry winds 4m the ridge in n.east of the system.. jtwc stated the system is placed southeast of the another ridge .so indian hp is near andhra ,eastern coast http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/maps/2012-10-25_01_UpperWind600m.jpg
Sel, I told u, something is telling me no cyclone this time around.
Selvan,
You have mentioned lot of things in favour of BOB. Now what happened?
Sel: Kadal yea illayam; Is that true now or still waiting for it form?
Raja,
We cannot rule out the formation of a system in BOB.
Since the system is in Andaman Sea till it crosses andaman this system cannot strengthen.
Once it has crossed the islands and comes to bay then the wind and SST will favour this system.
As SST is already higher in Bay.
IMD still forecast that the system will intensify into LPA in 24 hours.
Kea: Please assign negative mark for bloggers predicted cyclone crossing even before it formed. They have predicted from comrin to burma .Super…
Raja,
FYI.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!Asia!168!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012102412!!/
Partha: It won’t attain cyclone status. Wait and See
october month rainfall contest :-
Me,skvsram, vijay,jon – out
Dash,joel,ganesh raja – current winners
october month rainfall contest :-
Me,skvsram, vijay,jon – out
Dash,joel,ganesh raja – current leaders
how abt me?? i said 370mm 😦
may be in few days you’l be the leader
Hr649,
I don’t bother whether it reaches my destination but it has to bring rain.
That is what i am expecting.
I think this one is going to weaken into a LPA when nearing the coast and it is going to continuously rain.
Lots of moisture around the system.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=wvir&zoom=&time=
Wind shear tendency is increasing in Bay.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=indian&sat=wm5&prod=sht&zoom=&time=
Raja,still i am sticking wit my cyclone… It wil explode once it crosses 90E.
Hr949, Selvan,
Did you notice my previous link. Wind shear tendency is very less for Murjan.
Is it going to dissipate?
Partha, bfore 3 days,it lukd highly favourable..but now Shear luks increasing for bay system… Worrying factor. V wil wait n c…
TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT- LIVED, TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO THE HORN OF AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE BEING DISSIPATED BY LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DUE TO THE SOLID STEERING
MECHANISM AND THE PERSISTENCE IN STORM MOTION
JTWC – Murjan to intensify before landfall
Good Morning All!
The Bay system moved 440Km SW in one day!. That is good news. It is not going to Odisha. Some models predict to intensify in to cyclone strength. MJO is favourable. Lot of time is there for strengthening.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc/fcst/archive/12102412/67.html
Little sunny here. My washing machine is working over time 🙂
Sea surface temp is high in Bay. As per 3.00AM sat it is 30.5C.
Look at the formation in Andaman Sea.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Partha,sst is not at all a worrying factor in nem…
But this temp has increased 0.5 to 1.0C in the past few days.
SST is most important. If SST drops from 29 to 28 or vice versa it will have a great impact on rains. SST in South west Bay is most important followed by SST in Arabian sea.
Westerly wind in bay is reduced gradually.
http://www.intellicast.com/Global/Satellite/Infrared.aspx?animate=true
Surface wind forecast for tomorrow. It is favourable.
http://www.weather.gov.sg/wip/c/portal/layout?p_l_id=PUB.1023.14
9.3am http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc12/WPAC/93W.INVEST/vis/geo/1km/20121025.0357.mtsat1r.x.vis1km.93WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-102N-953E.100pc.jpg
Multi-satellite sysnthesis:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/amsumerged/wp932012/fcst/archive/12102500/1.html
If the system gives rain as expected, then the winners for total monthly forecast may be Arjunlv/Pulicat Mani/Guna Sir…
Kea, Salemiyer’s prediction of Kanyakumari-Yangon shud not be considered..if u r goin with it, then u must take my first option also (South TN – North WB) 😀
This tells the whole story:
http://www.ncmrwf.gov.in/t574-model/t574-meteo-agro/wche1.htm
Murjan located 2050KM from Amini Devi.
Did you see the similarity,
Murjan moves south west wards, the same is going happen to cyclone in bay.
Is there any connection?
Current temp is 30.7 but real feel is 47.4????
Humidity 100%
@selcyclone, still having hopes on bay cyclone?? 🙂
Rain Rate in Indian Ocean terittories.
The bay system has more darkblue color than Murjan! So expet it to be stronger than Murjan when it hits Chennai.
Yes, but the thing is that whenever a cyclone reaches TN, it gets weakened. I still have doubt that this may weaken when nears TN.
Even the track is projected to TN, rainfall is less projected by several sites.
No spots visible in bay. No rain for the day…
This time TN may record highly excess rainfall. Due to Negative MJO and Positive ENSO conditions.
Real Feel Temp is touching 49.0C.
Why is it so???
Real feel temp has crossed 50.0C.
Its really hot outside. My dresses dried in half an hour…
Alert All,
CPC confirms tropical cyclone formation in BAY.
And Above normal rainfall from 31st onvwards.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php
1. Week 1
The MJO and ER wave favor above median rainfall for the Indian Ocean, southern Bay of Bengal and southern India as well as elevated chances for tropical cyclogenesis for the southern Arabian Sea and southern Bay of Bengal. GFS model guidance also favors these precipitation and tropical genesis areas
2. Week 2
As we enter the Week-2 period, above-median rainfall remains favored for the Indian Ocean and is also forecast to extend to the western Maritime continent and is supported by MJO phase and the ER wave.
Great News to All Friends,
CPC confirms tropical cyclone formation in BAY in the coming week.
And above normal rainfall from 31st onwards.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php
till then, will there be any dry phase?
it rained in morning not its very hot outsite…sweating lot after a weeks break
El Nino becoming more positive. NINO 3.4
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#current
Path prediction of BOB system.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=ecmwf&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=168&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Alert Again,
More rain and tropical cyclone is predicted for Bay.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/index.php
Raijin,
We might have dry phase till sunday.
No GAPS report also confirms that Bay system crossed North TN coast.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=nogaps&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=0&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=
but it may pull upto machilli
NEM Rainfall for TN..
Since 01.10.2012 to 24.10.2012
Normal – 139.00MM
Actual – 223.60MM.
Departure +61%
Circulation of wind forming in Bay.
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/cmv.htm
Partha,u din c? i posted cpc post n v discussed their prediction yestrday..
Imd chennai ramanan, lp has formed in bay..so hvy rain for tn 4m 29th..
Ecmwf- nagai vedaranyam-jaffna
Some convective clouds seen consolidated around the system…. 4m now on it wil intensifty as the ridge over upper thailand has weakend..
http://www.espncricinfo.com/india/content/current/story/588090.html
😯
Sun rise in hyderabad??
Let us wait and c how they promote in TN against CSK ?
Already lot of Telugus in Chennai..how the atmosphere vl be during Chennai vs Hyd match at Chepauk? SUN group will be vigorously supporting Hyd in all thier tv and fm channels??!!??
Wat abt CSK?? 😀 😦
It is overcast and slight drizzle in Sriperumbudur and Oragadam.
Sun can promote but who will perform on the ground?
Partha Sir, they r capable of buying anyone in the world..even Tamil players mite b auctioned..or taken away from CSK..they may also play hard to get Dhoni for a huge amount 😦 very embarassing moments waiting for CSK and India Cements !!!
i agree with you…they are big gun and have huge ans strong network
The low pressure in the Bay is now situated at 10N and 96.5 E. Core pressure at 1007 mb, it has entered the Bay area, and the sytem is now deepening with favourable conditions and SST at 30c.
The WD factor seems to be out of question as far as the timing of this system is concerned.
There is no WD coming.In fact, what is favourable for TN is the possibility of a High pressure developing around the Bangladesh region.
With this, we could very well see this system tracking due West…and hope for good rains along TN and AP areas when it reaches land, as system can strengthen upto depression at least.
An UAC/Low can also form just on the Southern tip of India, west of Sri Lanka in the next 36 hrs.
sun scorchers will eat away csk.
Here after, Sun rises in Hyd and sets in Chn
En Vazhi Hyd Vazhi