327 thoughts on “Murjan is an Arabian Sea cyclone

  1. Hi…I am back to chennai from native…
    What a welcome given by chennai to me….
    It was sultry climate in Krishnagiri…Very dry…

  2. @Kea, I have heard that during SW monsoon time when Somalian jet is at its peak, the somlian coast would have gales reaching 100kmph daily in the morning hours… Also there would be dense fog only near the seashore (just like pirates of carribean movie) and day temperatures would be lesser than night temperature near the coast… Is all the above true ?

    How it would be during NEM ???

  3. I guess till we get the one in Andaman sea either as a cyclone, DD or LPA, we can get our averages going with the help of these early morning showers yielding 1 or 2 cms….

  4. Hmm the present low near Kanyakumari will become Nilam and also goes to Somalia as a significant cyclone

    Can Southern district such as Kanyakumari and 3T’s ( Tuticorin, Theni, Tirunelveli districts) benefit from this low

  5. BL: Opposite winds from western disturbances and lack of sufficient sea-surface temperatures (which fuels system intensity) are cited as unhelpful conditions for bob system….. lol.

  6. Raja,

    We cannot rule out the formation of a system in BOB.

    Since the system is in Andaman Sea till it crosses andaman this system cannot strengthen.

    Once it has crossed the islands and comes to bay then the wind and SST will favour this system.

    As SST is already higher in Bay.

  7. Kea: Please assign negative mark for bloggers predicted cyclone crossing even before it formed. They have predicted from comrin to burma .Super…

  8. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT- LIVED, TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO THE HORN OF AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED BEFORE BEING DISSIPATED BY LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DUE TO THE SOLID STEERING
    MECHANISM AND THE PERSISTENCE IN STORM MOTION

    JTWC – Murjan to intensify before landfall

  9. If the system gives rain as expected, then the winners for total monthly forecast may be Arjunlv/Pulicat Mani/Guna Sir…

    Kea, Salemiyer’s prediction of Kanyakumari-Yangon shud not be considered..if u r goin with it, then u must take my first option also (South TN – North WB) πŸ˜€

  10. 1. Week 1
    The MJO and ER wave favor above median rainfall for the Indian Ocean, southern Bay of Bengal and southern India as well as elevated chances for tropical cyclogenesis for the southern Arabian Sea and southern Bay of Bengal. GFS model guidance also favors these precipitation and tropical genesis areas

    2. Week 2
    As we enter the Week-2 period, above-median rainfall remains favored for the Indian Ocean and is also forecast to extend to the western Maritime continent and is supported by MJO phase and the ER wave.

    • Partha Sir, they r capable of buying anyone in the world..even Tamil players mite b auctioned..or taken away from CSK..they may also play hard to get Dhoni for a huge amount 😦 very embarassing moments waiting for CSK and India Cements !!!

  11. The low pressure in the Bay is now situated at 10N and 96.5 E. Core pressure at 1007 mb, it has entered the Bay area, and the sytem is now deepening with favourable conditions and SST at 30c.

    • The WD factor seems to be out of question as far as the timing of this system is concerned.
      There is no WD coming.In fact, what is favourable for TN is the possibility of a High pressure developing around the Bangladesh region.

      With this, we could very well see this system tracking due West…and hope for good rains along TN and AP areas when it reaches land, as system can strengthen upto depression at least.

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