217 thoughts on “N-E monsoon may set in ‘any time’ after Oct 17

  1. Ehsan, its awesome

    More over the LPA in BoB near Burma looks like a depression to me from the Kea Metsite link of Cloud Top Temperature which was -70C which shows intense clouds

  2. I wil clear my stand…monsoon wil set in around or aftr 20 th but nt with a typical style of lp,wil be commenced with short easterly wave,.usually it wil kick start with a lp but nothing for tis season .tats the reason for below avg rain in tat map…

  3. Mid Day Weather Summary.

    A trough extending from West Bengal to North TN through Odisha.

    Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of SWM from Bihar, North Chattisgarh, UP, MP & Guj, North Arabian Sea and parts of Maharashtra during next 48 hours.

  4. hi partha…

    No one can predict the exact date of NATURE Style…..

    But acc to many models, NE winds sets over TN on OCT 16th..and NE rains from 18th.. it will be very heavy from 23rd..

    • Exactly Raj,

      Some websites are saying rain in chennai on 14th & 15th but some are saying no rain until NEM.

      Also in 2 previous LPA’s there was heavy rain predicted for 3 days but we have received only trace of it.

      The same thing may happen to NEM also. These projection may result in negative.

  5. thiruvarur dist rockzzzzzzzzzzzz………. Virudhunagar
    (Virudhunagar Dist)14,
    Muthupet (Tiruvarur
    Dist)11, Coimbatore south
    (Coimbatore Dist)7,
    Vedasandur (Dindigul Dist),
    Pattukottai (Thanjavur Dist),
    Chatrapatti (odanchatra
    (Dindigul Dist), Dindigul
    (Dindigul Dist), Coimbatore
    aws (Coimbatore Dist)6
    each, Peravurani
    (Thanjavur Dist), Trp town
    (Trichy Dist),
    Aranmanaipudur (Theni
    Dist), Manapparai (Trichy
    Dist), Devala (Nilgiris Dist),
    Kangeyam (Tiruppur Dist),
    Ap peelamedu (Coimbatore
    Dist), Mannargudi
    (Tiruvarur Dist), Annur
    (Coimbatore Dist)5 each,
    Karur (Karur Dist),
    Kamatchipuram (Dindigul
    Dist), Arantangi
    (Pudukkottai Dist),
    Manamadurai (Sivaganga
    Dist), Sendamangalam
    (Namakkal Dist), Mettupatti
    (Madurai Dist)4 each,
    Orthanad (Thanjavur Dist),
    Tiruppur (Tiruppur Dist),
    Sivaganga (Sivaganga Dist),
    Tirumangalam (Madurai
    Dist), Rameswaram
    (Ramanathapuram Dist),
    Periyanaickenpalayam
    (Coimbatore Dist),
    Chittampatti (Madurai Dist),
    Paramathivelur (Namakkal
    Dist), Aravakurichi (Karur
    Dist), Adirampatnam
    (Thanjavur Dist),
    Thogamalai (Karur Dist),
    Ketti (Nilgiris Dist),
    Uthagamandalam aws
    (Nilgiris Dist), Kodumudi
    (Erode Dist), Sulur
    (Coimbatore Dist), Pamban
    (Ramanathapuram Dist)3
    each, Kamudhi
    (Ramanathapuram Dist),
    Coonoor (Nilgiris Dist),
    Kadavur (Karur Dist),
    Tirupuvanam (Sivaganga
    Dist), Devakottai (Sivaganga
    Dist), Namakkal (Namakkal
    Dist), Kodaikanal (Dindigul
    Dist), Nilakottai (Dindigul
    Dist), K bridge (Nilgiris
    Dist), K.paramathi (Karur
    Dist), Paramakudi
    (Ramanathapuram Dist), G
    bazar (Nilgiris Dist),
    Periyakulam (Theni Dist)2
    each, Alangudi (Pudukkottai
    Dist), Perundurai (Erode
    Dist), Uthagamandalam
    (Nilgiris Dist), Pandavaiyar
    head (Tiruvarur Dist),
    Naduvattam (Nilgiris Dist),
    Mettupalayam (Coimbatore
    Dist), Tiruchengode
    (Namakkal Dist), Mulanur
    (Tiruppur Dist),
    Dharapuram (Tiruppur
    Dist), Panchapatti (Karur
    Dist), Kothagiri (Nilgiris
    Dist), Periyakulam aws
    (Theni Dist), R.s.mangalam
    (Ramanathapuram Dist),
    Marungapuri (Trichy Dist),
    Gobichettipalayam (Erode
    Dist), Yercaud (Salem Dist),
    Vadipatti (Madurai Dist),
    Tirumayam (Pudukkottai
    Dist), Tirupathur (Sivaganga
    Dist), Pullambadi (Trichy
    Dist)1 each.

  6. While the wait for NEM still continues, what bothers most is the horrible day time temperature. Wondering if we will have any winter season during Dec-Jan this time. Chennai always scores the numero uno position when it comes to recording max day temperatures even during Oct till now.

    • winter? surely you mean relatively? 😉

      Its pretty warm in the afternoon in Hyd too – but the mornings and evenings are pleasant.

      Hope it cools down in Chennai before this weekend

  7. The new radar is so confusing. Is it really raining 50 kms south of Chennai. MAX and SRI says so but PPI gives a different picture altogether….

  8. extremely hot and humid in vijayawada(coastal AP)here.morning 8 am was like afternoon 1 pm and cannot explain the situation in afternoon.no air and it was like 40 degrees.what about situation in chennai?did u observe with drawal map in imd?they have drawn red line of normal withdrawn covering only some parts of telangana.they didnot give withdrawl of SW monsoon after october 15 for remaining part of andhra,entire TN and kerala.it means NORTH EAST MONSOON will set after october 15 for sure.

  9. Ind ocean is almost ready .waiting for the winds to get reversed…current system wil attract sw winds for couple of days n slowly n.westerly winds may cme to dominate….

  10. Thanks guys for your wishes i am back….5 days of viral fever…..Most people in chennai have this new fever

    (Severe cold with daily high fever and body-ache)

    I am fourth in my office to get affected.

    Meanwhile Its official Depression BOB 01 is the first storm of 2012 in NIO basin

    Sub: Depression over northeast Bay of Bengal.

    Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over northeast Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 10th October, 2012 near latitude 21.00N and longitude 91.0.0E, about 350 km southeast of Kolkata (West Bengal), 150 km southeast of Khepupara (Bangladesh) and 150 km south of Hatia (Bangladesh) The system is likely to intensify further, move northwards and cross Bangladesh coast near Hatia by tomorrow the 11th October, 2012 morning .

    Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura , Assam and Meghalaya during next 48 hours.

    The next bulletin will be issued at 0830 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 11th October, 2012

    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm

      • LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 10THTH OCTOBER, 2012 NEAR LATITUDE 21.00N AND LONGITUDE 91.0.0E, ABOUT 350 KM SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA (42809), 150 KM SOUTHEAST OF KHEPUPARA (41984) AND 150 KM SOUTH OF HATIA (41963)

        THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER, MOVE NORTHWARDS AND CROSS BANGLADESH COAST NEAR HATIA BY TOMORROW THE 11THTH OCTOBER, 2012 MORNING .

        ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 1.5. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -70C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL NORTH OF LAT 18.50N EAST OF LONG 90.5.00E

        SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1003 HPA.

  11. I guess the angle of the radar is screwed up.. IMD chennai needs to change the angle of the doppler to get proper images. The one’s in the US have 6 – 7 different angles that can be viewed. kind of like what wunderground has for the US.

    Also, wind direction in bangalore has changed to NNE,

  12. The depression over northeast Bay of Bengal moved northward and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 11th October, 2012 near latitude 22.50N and longitude 91.0.0E, close to Hatia (Bangladesh). The system is likely to move northwards and cross Bangladesh coast near Hatia within a few hours.

  13. Sub: Depression close to Bangladesh coast.

    The depression over northeast Bay of Bengal moved northward and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 11th October, 2012 near latitude 22.50N and longitude 91.0.0E, close to Hatia (Bangladesh). The system is likely to move northwards and cross Bangladesh coast near Hatia within a few hours .

    Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura , Assam and Meghalaya during next 48 hours.

    The next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 11th October, 2012

  14. Partha,continous rain along s.ap -n.tn coast during early hours(4am-7am),nimbus rain clouds 4m East-NE ,change in winds in upper level n lower level, Westerly jets etc…. Imd chennai wil declare the nem onset officially only if the above happens… Still 3 days more as per ur calculation.wil it happens?? not at all.Now can u say, nem wil be on 15th???

    • Dear Selvan,

      These are the possibilities that derived by IMD, but not compulsory.

      Wind direction can change in no time.

      But to get it strengthened will take some time.

      As you said the direction wind must be consistent for 2-3 days then the rain starts.

      I still believe the Easterlies may set in max by 16th if not on 15th.

  15. IP Camera is adjusted back to its old position.

    Thanks KEA.

    If you could turn it to NE direction, then it will be fine to see the clouds coming from sea during this monsoon season.

  16. hi partha…

    Thanks for all models predictions…

    wait for 4 days..15th is going to be the wind changing day..and from 16th we will be in NE winds… No doubt at all…100%

    The present clouds behind Srilanka will do the changing wind directions…along with the present trough from orrisa to TN….

  17. Selvan,

    1. North, Central and West India and North Arabian Sea are dry for the past 2 days.
    2. An LPA formed in SW Bay and Moved now to SE and crossed coast in Bangladesh has changed the wind pattern in North Bay already.
    2a. Also a trough extends from Gangetic West Bengal to North Tamil Nadu through Odisha.
    2b. This trough formed along east cost line which stops the wind movement from the west or south west which in result changes the wind pattern in N.Bay.
    3. Wind direction has already changed since yesterday in Maharashtra and North Peninsula.
    4. TS in East Coast Regularly.
    5. Rain or TS forecast already given for AP, South Interior Karnataka, TN & Kerala. Where as you said the first spell is recorded.

    I strongly believe that we are not far away from NEM onset.

    Nature has it’s own course.

  18. Its a must n compulsary..Just a wind change wont be considered to say the arrival ,rain along coastal areas during early hours wil be taken into account…simple criteria, imd following it for years for nem. Every1 in the blog knws it..

    • That is what i have said earlier Selvan.

      Please find the 12 links i have given. All have said the rain starts from 18th or 19th.

      MD waits for the rains in and around TN. That is not the final methodology.

      But NEM sets on 15th or 16th. It does not mean that the rain has to begin for an onset of any monsoon.

      Basic concept is the wind pattern that is what is observed by any meteorologists.

      That wind sets on 15th. That is when the NEM sets on.

  19. NE current r dry winds,they wnt bring rain all the way along with the winds like swm,they need to settle with a system or easterlies (lp) to do their task..tis process wil take hardly 2 days aftr the arrival n.east wind …. So am sticking with rain only aftr 36hrs set in of winds …

  20. NE current r dry winds,they wnt bring rain all the way along with the winds like swm,they need to settle with a system or easterlies (lp) to do their task..tis process wil take hardly 2 days aftr the arrival n.east wind …. So am sticking with rain only aftr 36hrs set in of winds ..

  21. jon, happened on oct 5th: 100.
    Only possiblities for the monsoon to strike early (i mean around 15 ),a Mjo rain wave shld develop in equ ind ocean or it shld propagate to equatorial ind ocean 4m w.pacific and also the sudden rise in sst over equatorialind ocean will trigger retreating winds as it descends down south4m north…. . But my view regarding the onset is around oct 19-21.. Lets c.
    By selvanfun on October 5, 2012 at 10:52 pm

  22. Biggest joke being, IMD still tracking SW monsoon over UP and it says it will withdraw in next 2-3 days in UP,MP and parts of Bihar, and while we are discussing NE monsoon onset on 15th onwards.

  23. I remember in 2004, when Ind-Aus Test match was scheduled in oct. Last day of the match was washed away by NEM onset and Chennai started getting showers from early morning of oct 18th.

    Rain is mandatory for declaration.(atleast in Chennai)

    India has to chase 250 odd runs on last day with Sehwag in crease .

  24. Yesterday’s Depression crossed coast near Hatia(Bangladesh) few hours back. This will weak into a LPA in next 24 hours. This will move North Easterly Direction. This is the last forecast for this system.

    Find the below link which shows the Bay’s Surface Temp Increases to 29.5 to 30 degrees celcius. Above 28degrees itself is conducive for more rains on land.

    http://www.incois.gov.in/Incois/indofos_sst.jsp?selectbox1=bay_of_bengal&selectbox2=sst&selectbox3=BB-sst-15-10-2012–0530

  25. Alert,

    In today’s Morning forecast IMD predicted further withdrawal in 2-3 days.

    Whereas now in Mid Day forecast.

    They have predicted the further withdrawal in 24 hours.

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