Withdrawal to speed up next week

The stalled withdrawal process will speed up this week and hopefully by end of next week SWM would have withdrawn completely. Some forecasts say NEM could set in this week, but no rain is expected for Chennai until month end

198 thoughts on “Withdrawal to speed up next week

  1. @praveen
    I have a weather station and a bottle gauge.The bottle is between the wall and a wire,just above a tube.Mine hasn’t fallen down yet.You can also keep it in the middle of the terrace,but it would fly away.Anything for support like a rope would be good

    • I cant keep it in middle.. it would be obstructed by the water tank etc.. only option is to place it in a corner.. planning to tie it with some kind of rope/wire hopefully with some support at bottom also.. got a cyclindrical bottle today morning.. will try to to place it today afternoon.. how does ur weather station and bottle gauge correlate in accuracy?

  2. My WS is quite accurate.Sometimes 1 or 2 mm less when there is wind.
    Bottle is accurate if there is no wind.If there is wind,you can add 2/3 mm to it depending on the windspeed.Also, make sure that the bottle can hold more than 15 cm so that if there is very heavy rain, the waterwon’t splash out.Just add 2-3 mm if there is heavy wind and maybe 1 mm for light wind.That’s it.

    This September 26th,there was 74 kmph wind with rain in Nungambakkam.In my house (3 km from IMD Nungambakkam),there was 60 kmph wind with light rain and heavy rain with 5-10 kmph wind.The bottle showed 22~ mm and WS 23.2 mm.

    • If there are constant winds of more than 25 kmph,the bottle can be upto 10 mm less,but those storms produce more than 3 cm and maybe 5-10 mm can be added.But for more than 50 kmph wind,bottle won’t be very accurate if the rain is not heavy

  3. IMD Nungambakkam 0.4 mm

    Bottles are better than WS or ARGs for getting light rain as it is wider

  4. Nd I feel tat the radar image on the page should be available varying with the season. In dry conditions it’l be useless. So tat section shld be changed with every season.

  5. V hav to wait for some more days to c the typical LPA… 1 thing for sure, S.ind ocean (below equator) activity luks strange… But tis is favour 4 us.. ITCZ is nearing close to the range wher it wil be placed usually during NEM…

  6. Expert view from a renowned personality: it is now just a remnant low crossing over southeast Asia, Gaemi may not be done quite yet. The GFS is indicating what’s left of Gaemi emerging over the Bay of Bengal in about 2 days. Some runs have shown the remnants attempting to redevelop, and today’s 18z run actually showed the most significant redevelopment yet. Because Gaemi is such a weak circulation, however, I am not ready to buy this yet, as I think it is more likely the remnant low will dissipate over land or become too disorganized to redevelop when it emerges over water..
    93B Unlikely to Develop:
    Sticking with the Bay of Bengal theme, the first invest in quite a while has formed in the Bay, invest 93B. 93B is currently weak and disorganized, and it does not have much time over water to develop, and none of the major global models show development of the disturbance. The JTWC has not mentioned 93B on its Indian Ocean tropical weather outlook.

  7. Rainfall in S.TN till 7:30 pm in mm

    Sivakasi : 68
    Pechiparai : 44
    Dindigul : 34
    Andipatti : 29
    Thirunelveli :21

  8. Sivakasi – 68mm
    Vedasandur ( dindugal dist.) – 46mm
    Pechiparai ( near Nagarcoil) – 44mm
    Andipatti – 33mm
    Dindigul -34mm
    Natham ( dindigul dist.) – 14mm
    Tirunelveli – 21mm
    Rajapalayam – 5mm

  9. Rainfall stats – 7am

    Sivakasi – 68mm
    Vedasandur – 67mm
    Dindigul – 66mm
    Andipatti – 38mm
    Coimbatore – 21mm
    Periakulam -14mm

  10. And as I said, the remains of Gaemi may reach us in few dys time. It could produce considerable rain and may also trigger a Low Pressure near Andaman.

  11. No signs of any rain for us in the near future. Business line surprisingly saying onset of NEM expected anytime now.

    I still think we need to wait till 26-27 for the real monsoon

    • i dnt agree with ur statement.im expecting it around 16-19

      but im not completely against tis statement though “we need to wait till 26-27 for the real monsoon”

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  13. Typhoon Gaemi slows speed to 25 kph when it arrives in Cambodia: PM
    English.news.cn 2012-10-07 18:32:55 [RSS] [Feedback] [Print] [Copy URL] [More]

    PHNOM PENH, Oct. 7 (Xinhua) — Cambodia has reduced its concern over the direct impact of a tropical storm Gaemi after the storm has slowed its speed to 25 kilometers per hour (kph) when it arrived in Cambodia’s northwestern Stung Treng province on Sunday morning, Prime Minister Hun Sen said.

    “A few days ago, we were concerned over the storm, and our concern has now reduced because the storm arrived in the western part of Stung Treng province on Sunday morning at 7:00 a.m. (local time) with the speed of only 25 kph after it hit the coast of Vietnam at the speed of 55 kph,” the premier said Sunday during a ceremony to deliver land titles to residents in northwestern Banteay Meanchey province bordering Thailand.

    “With this speed, the winds will travel to Siem Reap province at 7:00 p.m. tonight (Sunday),” he said.

    Siem Reap is the country’s largest tourism destination, located some 315 kilometers northwest of Phnom Penh. The province houses Angkor Wat Temple, one of the world heritage sites.

  14. Official Announcement.

    SWM has further withdrawn from most parts of UP, MP & GUJ and Bihar.

    The withdrawal line passes through Raxaul, Varanasi, Jabalpur, Hoshangabad, Vadodara, Porbandar.

    Further withdrawal expected in 48 hours.

  15. Rainfall in CM in past 24 hours.

    Virudhunagar 10
    Tirupuvanam 9
    Kamatchipuram 8
    Sivakasi 7
    Dindigul and  Madurai Airport 6
    Vedasandur and  Sivaganga 5
    Chittampatti, Melur, Andipatti and Natham 4
    Tirumangalam,Bhavanisagar,Sathyamangalam and Gobichettipalayam, Vaniaymbadi,Pechiparai,Marungapuri, Karur Paramathi and Manamadurai 3

  16. YAY! Now Chennai radar is going to become like vizag and machilipatnam radar with realistic maps instead of grey background

    • IMD declares withdrawal based on the water vapour channel and the dryness in those regions.

      Now north india does not have water vapour as per the insat picture and it is dry.

      My question is – In south peninsula the water vapour does not dry till NEM withdraws. Now how come IMD or any other Global Forecast System arrive at a conclusion that SWM has withdrawn completely from entire country.

      The only possibility is the wind direction.

  17. Lot of rain ovet interior Tn….day b4 sterday as i mentioned there was heavy rain in the vaniyambadi,tirupattur n dharmapuri regiob…. Chengam 70mm,tirupattur 65mm,Dharmapuri 50mm,vaniybadi 40mm….they also recordef the coldest temp in south indian plains at 18 degrees

  18. dry weather continues for the 9th day straight in October, SW monsoon not fully withdrawn, so NE monsoon commencement cannot be predicted for now, should be only after 20th at the earliest.

    • It is not like SWM has to withdraw completely. If withdrawal line touches north peninsula then that itself is conducive for the onset of NEM over TN.

      The withdrawal will touch north peninsula by 13th Oct 2012.

  19. The upper air cyclonic circulation was lying in the cost of Maharashtra now lies over east central arabian sea.

    This moving westwards due easterly wind flowing in Maharashtra. Due to this the cyclonic circulation is pushed westwards.

    This is the indication of the easterlies setting in over peninsula.

  20. After a brief spell of rain in the morning.now having thick high cloud cover day with cool north easterly winds in bangalore……

  21. BL

    The IMD expects the rains over peninsular India to last for a couple of more days.

    Subsequently, the withdrawal is expected to take place at a rapid pace.

    In fact, by October 15, the winds are shown to change direction from southwesterly to easterly to northeasterlies over land and the Arabian Sea.

    This would mean the South-West monsoon would have exited the entire land mass and Arabian Sea ahead of the onset of North-East (reverse) monsoon.

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