165 thoughts on “Withdrawal of SWM to start soon

  1. Kea, til its in neutral.by the end of the year probably by jan el nino may set in…In a latest forecast,positive IOD wil continue til end of october…any way ,post the url tat says weak el nino..

  2. It was very funny to see Rohit Sharma scamper for the second run off the last ball…nobody was interested in running him out and started picking the stumps, but Rohit was still running as if going to make a tie :mrgreen:

  3. All the heat hasn’t been used.
    Heat near Chennai region is yet to be used by storms,so we can expect one tonight or tomorrow

  4. Models suggest tat Mjo may return to equatorial ind ocean by oct 1st week.so by tat time swm winds shld be weak n mostly it mite be withdrawn partly…. Almost every year i used to think of these days 4m Oct 1-20 wer sw winds exit n NE winds set in… tat too central bay wil be really crucial ,very high possiblity of cyclone at tat part of time,….

  5. Heaviest Rains of the year parts of West Bengal

    Southwest monsoon been active over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal after nearly two months. Heavy to very heavy rainfall occurred at a few places with extremely heavy fall at isolated places over Jalpaiguri district of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and heavy falls at isolated places over the districts of Darjeeling & Coochbehar of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal. The following are the heavy rainfall ending 8.30 am on 12.09.2012

    Rainfall in mm

    Gazoldoba – 396
    Bagrakote – 310
    Nagrakata – 162
    Murti – 160
    Majhian – 118
    Gyalsing – 110
    Neora – 110
    Bagdogra – 106
    Dinhata – 100
    Mathabhanga – 100

  6. Actually,yesterday’s storm lasted for 2 1/2 hours,just like how a normal storm would do, but in September the SWM becomes weak and the storms keep changing direction.Last year too, one day winds were coming from WNW and a giant supercell formed WNW of Tambaram and kept moving towards Meenambakkam,but it suddenly moved towards NE and hit Nunga.

  7. We are yet to experience the foll in Sep..

    1) Early morning violent storm (not the one which starts at midnight and continues till morning)..it must form around 5am and move inland..

    2) A usual looking evening storm which starts giving rains but stops in midway without crossing into sea and retreats back to west bcoz of strong sea breeze..this may happen in few days…

  8. Rainfall in and around Chennai Region ending 8.30 on 13.09.2012

    The storm lost its strength as it neared Chennai City

    Kadambathur – 25
    R.K.Pet Agro – 11
    Pallipattu – 10
    Thiruvalangadu – 10
    Tiruvallur – 9
    Poondi Lake – 9
    Cholavaram – 8
    Uttiramerur – 7
    Chembarampakkam Lake – 7
    Poondi Agro – 5
    Redhills – 2

  9. Ehsanji,

    Hve u told the guinness records about your out of the box discovery…..the fact of the matter is the qualities of this heavy rainfall that can occur in september is known to all experts – Cloud expert(Sudharshan),Cyclone expert(Vinod),Astro expert(Mr.Dhinakar)..Vagaries of weather owner(mr.rajesh) ….as i have already said its totally irrelevant what 4-5 ppl in this blog say….

    • Don’t u know ….Since the IMD changed to the newer averages(atleast its not so old and far off,we can expect better chances of it being correct),Ehsan’s dialogue….It doesn’t matter even if september is wet for all other places in Tamil nadu,even for other places in chennai,it is a dry month for Nungambakkam,if not(atleast his street)…Cos he has “observed it” ..specially in the last 20 years,where sept is averaging between 150-160mm

  10. Rainfall today
    Thiruvallur – 19
    Puzhal – 10
    Meenambakkam – 9
    Ariyalur- 6
    Madhavaram – 5
    Nungambakkam – 4
    Taramani – 2
    Hindustan Unviersity – 1

    My rain gauge shows 7 mm

  11. WTF – LOL

    Pandit Kedar Sharma, a Jaipur-based astrologer whose predictions are trusted by politicians and corporate heads, says he knew it all. He says he had shared his monsoon prediction with Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar to reassure him that all would be well after the searing, dry patch in June. Sharma has predicted that the monsoon will gather steam in July and would wipe out the deficit.

    “I had told Sharad Pawar about the revival,” he said. This year, the monsoon has obediently tracked the Hindu lunar calendar, and the pundit had predicted a rainy September because this year the lunar calendar has an extra month of Bhadon. “This year, there are two months of Bhadon from August 3 to September 30, which is termed as ‘Adhik Maas’ in the Hindu calendar. This means that there will be a delayed withdrawal of monsoon, bringing rains in September especially the first fortnight,” Sharma said.

    This year, the monsoon hit the Kerala coast on June 5 that coincided with the beginning of the lunar Ashad month, which does not get much rain, but is followed by the rainy month of Sawan. The Ashad month ended with a rain deficit of about 30% in early July. The Sawan started on July 4, bringing showers to most parts of the country. The monsoon then progressed vigorously to cover the entire country ahead of the schedule. On August 3, when the first of the two Bhado months began, heavy showers started. The second month of Bhado coincides with September. Scientists have taken note of this though they point out that this correlation was not visible in some previous monsoons.

    http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-09-12/news/33789410_1_monsoon-prediction-seasonal-deficit-imd

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