The status of Cyclone Thane as on Indian Time – 05.00 PM
———————
Intensity – 3.5
Pressure – 993 mmb
Wind Speed – 55 kts (102 kmph)
Location – 12.61 N 86.15 E
Weakening – OFF
Rapid Weakening – OFF
Landfall – Around Chennai
Crossing Date – 30th December Morning
What a surprise
Kea bloggers are active only during the night and during holidays.
Even a category I storm towards chennai is not enough for attracting our bloggers. But things will change by tomorrow for sure.
why has Wunderground wikedly dropped its forecast to 11.9mm from Thane!Beats me..
Karl Kiefer’s ( see her column in the right side of the wunderground page) predictions are “Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Six will continue moving through the Bay of Bengal as a tropical storm. No landfall is expected in southern India on Wednesday, but residents in the area just north of Sri Lanka should prepare for its eventual landfall.”
Thane is expected to weaken………But not to the extent of Jal ………JTWC expects to have 70 knots before landfall which could significantly cause a lot of damage……………
What to expect from the E/NE horizon when Thane nears Chennai?
Since this system has already attained cyclone status, there wont be any huge anvils/nimbus clouds visible..the current cirrus will slowly envelope the entire sky and giv a very hazy atmosphere..slowly high clouds will creep in and gets thicker and darker with strengthening winds and mild drizzle in the air..this will be till tmrw evening..from late night low clouds will be moving fast from N/NW, drizzles will get heavy and steady, rain rate will pickup gradually by thursday morning with monsterous winds…and the rest will be history 😀
Today evening the chillness in wind wasn’t much when compared with yesterday or day before…. as said earlier, the rain should commence from tomorrow evening if this cyclone travels at 7 knts… If it increases it speed to 10 knts, then the system will approach chennai much before than IMD predicted…
IMD 7 pm report:Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
good one..but im asking about a song after achieving something!
then he will sing ” pothuvaaga en manasu thangam, oru potiyinu vanthuvita singam, unmaye solven, nallathey seiven, vetri mel vetri varum, aaduvom paaduvom kondaaduvom”
sel will sing ” megam karukkuthu, puyal adikuthu, tambaram vedikuthu, north tamil nadu thavikithu”… 🙂
whats the difference between this and the super cyclone that hit orissa 1999 -05B?
i remember a cyclone that crossed near pondy in 2000 0r 2001 that was only wind and no greater rains.chennai should have got 5cm i guess.will it be similar to one?
Thane will briefly get Severe cyclone status tomorrow around noon time. From then on weakening will start as its nears the coast. It is expected to lose the Severe cyclone status by midnight.
It is expected to make landfall as a DD, just like Jal
Radar is not OK. whatever red spots it shows in west is not real. may be next picture it will be alright.
now the latest satellite picture reveals, the system is taking a straight westward movement. now the clouds almost neared 82 east and between 11 and 15 latitude good cloud formation.
tomorrow morning we will get cloudy weather and drizzle to commence late in evening.
Thane has slowed down considerably in the past few hours and is now almost stationary with minor movement Hope it moves fast so as to escape the wind shear and the decreasing sst
Jon- the core looks to be a deadly 350-400mm..thats deadly..apparently it has sucked in all the moisture from SE Asia and BOB..no wonder we see a purple patch..now now thats some storm!
the outer layers are a cool 100mm and then the inner core of 300-350mm can blank a surface area of 100-200kms..does that mean that even if the eye crosses- lets say Mahabalipuram-the 300mm rains can be between pulicat and Pondy?
s it will dump some serious rain if it follows the same path.it looks exactly like baaz which gave us almost 18cm in 4-5hrs and 28cm in 24hrs
Warning to kea members,Tmrw morning the sat image wil be deadly.,.. The southern quadrant tat is heavy ,wil be near the coast by morning.
Some international model suggested that the storm would lose some of the sting on the last-mile stretch due to increasing values of vertical wind shear.
Vertical wind shear is the sudden change in wind speeds with height, and has proved the nemesis of building storms thanks to the ‘shearing’ effect on top brought about by wayward winds, effectively destroying the storm tower.
it seems quite that many in the blog are eagerly awaiting the disaster want to be happened than worrying about its devastation caused. I am already frightened to the core on hearing that the probable rainfall in the range of 300-400mm. Chennai is not capable of even 80 mm rainfall as hitherto seen. God only saves Chennai from the disaster. As the rainfall is to last for only a few days, the flash floods will be a disaster than anything useful to our lakes or groundwater level. Hoping to get minimal damage from THANE for the sake of our Chennai. Tomorrow would be an important day for THANE and for Chennai as well. Be prepared for the worst but pray for the best.
Hypothetically if Chennai has to get 200-300mm of rains,the city is ill-prepared to manage such rains in 24hrs..in besant nagar,there are still halfdug drains…garbage all over..completely eroded roads..can imagine the scene after the deluge!
spin factor doesnt matter.if the storm comes from se towards nw then i would prefer a lf to the s but the scenario ere is diff, storm is expected to come from ene or e and make a move towards wsw so the impact will be more over s of the lf area.anyway epdiyo mazha vantha seri 🙂
1994 Cyclone (Crossed near Chennai) – Destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more
—————————————————-
This cyclone i witnessed first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds….The cyclone scared the shit out of me.
I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary
Don’t quite remember this 94 cyclone, but remember the infamous 96 cyclone in detail. IIRC, at that time this was the 3rd cyclone that was heading towards Bangladesh. Then the twist in the path and ended up crossing near Mahabs (?!). The cyclone made landfall around evening 6-7pm, wasn’t a drop of rain but was packed with heavy winds as it crossed into land.
In distant memories, 1984 was the only year our house got flooded and 1992 was the driest (1993 the year of ‘thanni’ lorry behind running :P).
BTW, thanks for the articles. Was nice to seee Madras on papers 🙂
Recall of 1994 Severe cyclone – As Chennai fears from a Severe Cyclone Thane
——————-
I made it much simpler…
Anyone has memory of 1994 Severe Cyclone that crossed Chennai) – It was the destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more.
This cyclone i witnessed it first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds…. The cyclone scared the shit out of me. I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary. Hope Cyclone Thane doesnot make any destruction like this.
according to jtwc 2 am report, system going to loose all its strength to vertical wind shear along its path before landfall. May be system would cross as a depression.
Imd bulletin at 5.30am TROPICAL STORM THANE ADVISORY NO. TEN ISSUED AT 0000 UTC OF 28 TH DECEMBER 2011 BASED ON 2100 UTC CHARTS OF 27 TH DECEMBER 2011.
THE CYCLONIC STORM THANE OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINEDPRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF THE 27 TH DECEMBER 2011 NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 0 N AND LONGITUDE 86.0 0 E, ABOUT 600 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279), 650 KM NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) AND 700 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN CUDDALORE (43329) AND NELLORE (43245) AROUND MORNING OF 30 TH DECEMBER 2011.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT) IS ABOUT -85 0 C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.0 0 N TO16.0 0 N AND LONGITUDE 81.0 0 E TO 88.0 0 E.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC)
Position (lat. 0 N/ long. 0 E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
27-12-2011/2100
12.5/86.0
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0000
12.7/85.5
85-95 gusting to 100
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0600
12.9/85.0
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1200
13.1/84.5
95-105 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1800
13.3/84.0
100-110 gusting to 125
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/0600
13.3/83.0
100-110 gusting to 125
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1800
13.3/81.5
95-105 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/0600
13.2/79.5
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/1800
13.0/78.5
45-55 gusting to 65
Deep Depression
REMARK:
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 27-28 DEG. C. OVER THE REGION. IT IS RELATIVELY LESS TOWARDS TAMIL NADU AND SRI LANKA COAST BECOMING 26-27 DEG. C.THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50 – 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM AND LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM SQUARE NEAR TAMILNADU AND NORTH SRILANKA COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE PHASE 5 IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION,AS PER OUR PAST STUDIES.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 15 DEG. N AND HENCE HELPS INWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY CHANGE DURING PAST SIX HOURS.THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS. CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER THEY SUGGEST SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH RESPECT TO TRACK, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOVEMEN, SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ALSO IN AGREEMENT.
These IMD ppl are taking us for a ride. Trust me these rains will never arrive. There is a reason for cola and foreca to keep reducing their estimates.
Imd says rain will arrive only tomorrow and on Friday only a DD at best
Jtwc – 272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 85.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271419Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A CONCENTRIC AND WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATETHE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IS SEPARATING FROM VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE, WHICH MAY LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE BEING COMPENSATED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. TC 06B IS UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 26 TO 27 DEGREES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MYANMAR IS DRIVING TC 06B WESTWARD. THERE IS A MILD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, AND GFS IS SHOWING AN EXAGGERATED POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO THAT WEAKNESS. OTHER GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALONG TRACK BRINGING ABOUT A WEAKEING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET.
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN WESTWARD
BY A DEEP STEERING RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER MYANMAR. AS TC 06B TRACKS WESTWARD, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER ANOTHER 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COUPLED
WITH THE LOSS OF ITS DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE, WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA
It isn’t .. It is moving at the rate of 9 knts… Yesterday it intesified from 5 knts to 7 knots and today from 7 knots to 9 knots… Which means the system should cross anytime between tomorrow noon – evening…
KeaWeather Archives 
IMD update out. No suprises
🙂
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?brand=wxmap&query=Chennai%2C+India&theprefset=00000143279WS&theprefvalue=ICHENNAI1
The status of Cyclone Thane as on Indian Time – 05.00 PM
———————
Intensity – 3.5
Pressure – 993 mmb
Wind Speed – 55 kts (102 kmph)
Location – 12.61 N 86.15 E
Weakening – OFF
Rapid Weakening – OFF
Landfall – Around Chennai
Crossing Date – 30th December Morning
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/12/cyclone-thane-update-chennai-is-still.html
Why blog has suddenly gone silent
Silence before a storm :-p
I think this is the silence before a storm. 😛
What a surprise
Kea bloggers are active only during the night and during holidays.
Even a category I storm towards chennai is not enough for attracting our bloggers. But things will change by tomorrow for sure.
lets hope that it makes a landfall and cause less destruction.i cant wait anymore.if it makes landfall until when we will be getting rainfall?
Tomoro will be the Big day with most number of threads if TC keeps its track. Day after tomo many of us may face power and network failures :-p
correct
Looks like “Thane” is visible in Chennai Doppler radar @ around 500 kms… 🙂
Similarities between Thane and Jal
Thane expected to become a Severe cyclone
Jal was a Severe cyclone before weakening
Thane expected to weaken before making landfall close to Chennai
Jal weakened into a DD before making landfall over Chennai
Rainfall from Thane – 0 mm
Rainfall from Jal – 70 mm
As Thane is expected to weaken before landfall, can we expect it to cross without any rainfall?
Yes..definitely..u can expect that for ur Nunga
🙂
Someone mentioned they have to secure their weather station today 🙂
That said, if Thane’s still making landfall near Madras, I doubt its going to be 0 mm still even for the cursed Nungambakkam weather station ;).
Its still 600 km away, too early to comment !!
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain
Ramanan on tv
why has Wunderground wikedly dropped its forecast to 11.9mm from Thane!Beats me..
Karl Kiefer’s ( see her column in the right side of the wunderground page) predictions are “Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Six will continue moving through the Bay of Bengal as a tropical storm. No landfall is expected in southern India on Wednesday, but residents in the area just north of Sri Lanka should prepare for its eventual landfall.”
“wickedly”
Thane is expected to weaken………But not to the extent of Jal ………JTWC expects to have 70 knots before landfall which could significantly cause a lot of damage……………
Shocking news. Latest GFS predict landfall in andhra
north coastal a.p or south coastal a.p?
Central AP
Whoever gave me 1 vote, can explain the reasoning behind this?
yest it predicted landefall over vizag
kea ,here it is
12.66 -86.05
13.43 -86.05
does this mean AP?
above are the last 2 readings
tats error.wait for the next one
yep ur right
there you go: 12.70 -85.94
Drizzles nearing Pondy in radar
Useful link for us now…
Latitude and Longitude Map of India……….
http://www.mapsofindia.com/lat_long/
type the system position (lat and long) on google satellite map..
Radar spots the first rain cloud from Thane
already it has rained or rain clouds were there west of Chengulput and off tirutani in wee hours of today!
i think it was an error,but the blue spots u see 400km east of chennai should be from Thane!!
1330z It is 12.70 -85.94
What to expect from the E/NE horizon when Thane nears Chennai?
Since this system has already attained cyclone status, there wont be any huge anvils/nimbus clouds visible..the current cirrus will slowly envelope the entire sky and giv a very hazy atmosphere..slowly high clouds will creep in and gets thicker and darker with strengthening winds and mild drizzle in the air..this will be till tmrw evening..from late night low clouds will be moving fast from N/NW, drizzles will get heavy and steady, rain rate will pickup gradually by thursday morning with monsterous winds…and the rest will be history 😀
Nice description. I think what you’ve mentioned is going to happen this time for sure.
thnx Guna Sir.. 🙂
Hope atleast this time they correctly declare holiday for schools and colleges..will be great if they declare holiday for all offices also 😀
ecmwf on gfs: nan theriyama thaan kekuraen,nee enna avlo periya appataker ah???
jtwc on gfs:- unakae avlo athupu naa,engallaku evlo irkum…
kea blog: dai ….mangoose mandaya thoo. odu apdi
🙂 perfect reply
Its moving north to take a curve…thats all nothing moving to AP
AP latitude starts frm 14 N….if the system moves to that lat also, it will revert back to 12.4 lat …
due to present UAC in NorthWest..
Kea @ shocking NEWS…
LAT CHANGES AGAIN TO 12.7…
Nambikkai veiyanga pa….THANE NAMUKU THAN…
NO DOUBT….100% CONFIRMED
Today evening the chillness in wind wasn’t much when compared with yesterday or day before…. as said earlier, the rain should commence from tomorrow evening if this cyclone travels at 7 knts… If it increases it speed to 10 knts, then the system will approach chennai much before than IMD predicted…
Kea, can we have revised rain fall predictions from our bloggers ?
inimey evanadhu thane ange podhu inge podhu nu sollathum…..
appara paar avane ??????
aanga ellam appave appadi ippo kekava venum
IMD 7 pm report:Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message
650km from Chennai :12.5-86.5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z — 12.9N 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z — 13.1N 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z — 13.2N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z — 13.1N 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
POSITION NEAR 12.5N 86.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 17 FEET
What will Sel sing if his month-long expectation and prediction comes true and Chennai gets historic rainfall from Thane???
Any guess???
Vetri nichayam Idhu Vedha Sathiyam 😀
good one..but im asking about a song after achieving something!
then he will sing ” pothuvaaga en manasu thangam, oru potiyinu vanthuvita singam, unmaye solven, nallathey seiven, vetri mel vetri varum, aaduvom paaduvom kondaaduvom”
sel will sing ” megam karukkuthu, puyal adikuthu, tambaram vedikuthu, north tamil nadu thavikithu”… 🙂
🙂
namma makkal thilagam mgr song thaan “enna thaan nadakkum nadakkatumae…irutinil neethi maraiyatuma (THAN(NAL)E) veli varum thayangathaey thalaivan irukiraan mayangathey….
ha ha..
wat about thunderkid?? I think he will be fasting now 🙂
look at tis and say …pic shot at 7.30pm.. 12.2,86.6…. movement westwards but sign of moving sw http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/small/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/ir/geo/1km_bw/20111227.1401.mtsat2.x.ir1km_bw.06BTHANE.60kts-978mb-122N-866E.100pc.jpg
do u mean it will follow earlier bbc prediction of going to nagai?
selva will this storm hit chennai
as per accuweather the change in wind direction will happen only from thursday night to ENE till then NW only
My choice..latest one..
“Naan sonnadhum mazha vandhuchaa
Naan sonnadhum puyal vandhucha
Adi rendume idham thanducha
muthu muthu pechi..
….
….”
😀
ha..ha..enna ya nadakuthu??
13.2/80.6
New landfall area from IMD
thatz again South Chennai
chennai is 13.05N 80.15E
its north Chennai.just to s of ennore which is at 13.24
check the animation.. its moving west..so no change in landfall http://www.weathergaines.blogspot.com
surely tis storm will hit chennai…likely in between pulicat-thiruvanmiyur
whats the difference between this and the super cyclone that hit orissa 1999 -05B?
i remember a cyclone that crossed near pondy in 2000 0r 2001 that was only wind and no greater rains.chennai should have got 5cm i guess.will it be similar to one?
Thane will briefly get Severe cyclone status tomorrow around noon time. From then on weakening will start as its nears the coast. It is expected to lose the Severe cyclone status by midnight.
It is expected to make landfall as a DD, just like Jal
But still, there will be disaster ….
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/COLOR/SOUTHERNASIA/index.htm
13.2/80.6 is ENNORE PORT
Jon,
Got info from reliable source that thunderkid is busy buying candles and betromax lights for thursday and friday nights..!
Enna oru puthisaalithanam!! rofl 😀
13.2/80.6 is ENNORE PORT
Once THANE does landfall, it will sing to all ” Kalasala Kalasala, kalasala kalasala kalsala kalasala”
I am unable to identify the eye of the cyclone. How can find it?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?SIZE=Full&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=io&ATCF_YR=2011&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2011/io062011.11122706.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2011/io062011.11122706.gif&CURRENT=20111227.1430.meteo7.x.ir1km_bw.06BTHANE.60kts-978mb-122N-866E.100pc.jpg&AGE=Latest&CURRENT_ATCF=io062011.11122706.gif&ATCF_NAME=io062011&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2011&ACTIVES=11-SHEM-03S.GRANT,11-IO-06B.THANE,11-SHEM-96S.INVEST&MO=DEC&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2011&YR=11&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=06B.THANE&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/tpw/microvap&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/ir/geo/1km_bw&TYPE=ir&PRODUCT=ir&SUB_PROD=geo&SUB_SUB_PROD=1km_bw&PROD=ir
this is night time, hence it will be sleeping ….Pour water on that.. it will open its eye.. Then you can see its eye …. 😀
No, it is not sleeping. It is awake with big eye.
Thanks Kea.
jtwc report out 12.28 n 86.35 again changed
it is at 12.4 n 86.7 e
12.28 86.35 is the lat
clearly showing a wsw mvt
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=igms&CONT=asie&BIG=1&LOOP=12&ZEIT=201112271500
@kea, remove tat jtwc img.its too big
Kea,
There is something wrong with this cyclone. Are you able to figure out?
wat?
Why is it not moving quickly?
accu warning
Rain, heavy at times; winds gusting past 50 mph; watch for flash flooding
Is something wrong with the radar? I see some clouds north and south west of Chennai…
Radar is not OK. whatever red spots it shows in west is not real. may be next picture it will be alright.
now the latest satellite picture reveals, the system is taking a straight westward movement. now the clouds almost neared 82 east and between 11 and 15 latitude good cloud formation.
tomorrow morning we will get cloudy weather and drizzle to commence late in evening.
ss.
thane lies in the same monsoon trough which caused severe devastation in phillipines
slight NW mvmt moved 0.2 north and 0.5 east -west
Thane has slowed down considerably in the past few hours and is now almost stationary with minor movement Hope it moves fast so as to escape the wind shear and the decreasing sst
It will gain its intensity by tomorrow morning..
system to be steered westward http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/io0611web.txt
realtime precipitation amount of thane http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/asia/asia_accumulation_zoom.gif
Jon- the core looks to be a deadly 350-400mm..thats deadly..apparently it has sucked in all the moisture from SE Asia and BOB..no wonder we see a purple patch..now now thats some storm!
the outer layers are a cool 100mm and then the inner core of 300-350mm can blank a surface area of 100-200kms..does that mean that even if the eye crosses- lets say Mahabalipuram-the 300mm rains can be between pulicat and Pondy?
s it will dump some serious rain if it follows the same path.it looks exactly like baaz which gave us almost 18cm in 4-5hrs and 28cm in 24hrs
Warning to kea members,Tmrw morning the sat image wil be deadly.,.. The southern quadrant tat is heavy ,wil be near the coast by morning.
mina min today 17.8
Gopal, yes. Tats y v Always prefer landfal to little south… Landfall near kalpakam/mahabalipuram wil be most effective wrt to rain.
lf just to n of us would be ideal since it is projected to move in wsw from e.so impact will be more over chennai than places to n of lf area
Some international model suggested that the storm would lose some of the sting on the last-mile stretch due to increasing values of vertical wind shear.
Vertical wind shear is the sudden change in wind speeds with height, and has proved the nemesis of building storms thanks to the ‘shearing’ effect on top brought about by wayward winds, effectively destroying the storm tower.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article2751756.ece?ref=wl_industry-and-economy
it seems quite that many in the blog are eagerly awaiting the disaster want to be happened than worrying about its devastation caused. I am already frightened to the core on hearing that the probable rainfall in the range of 300-400mm. Chennai is not capable of even 80 mm rainfall as hitherto seen. God only saves Chennai from the disaster. As the rainfall is to last for only a few days, the flash floods will be a disaster than anything useful to our lakes or groundwater level. Hoping to get minimal damage from THANE for the sake of our Chennai. Tomorrow would be an important day for THANE and for Chennai as well. Be prepared for the worst but pray for the best.
.lets hope that it makes a landfall and cause less destruction.
you are right. i am looking for rains around 50 mm . not more than that i am expecting
Hypothetically if Chennai has to get 200-300mm of rains,the city is ill-prepared to manage such rains in 24hrs..in besant nagar,there are still halfdug drains…garbage all over..completely eroded roads..can imagine the scene after the deluge!
Yes – its going to be a mess
jon i thnk,By considering the anticlockwise spin, it would be better if it makes little south of us.
spin factor doesnt matter.if the storm comes from se towards nw then i would prefer a lf to the s but the scenario ere is diff, storm is expected to come from ene or e and make a move towards wsw so the impact will be more over s of the lf area.anyway epdiyo mazha vantha seri 🙂
Crossing north Chennai
Moved NW
2011DEC27 163000
12.35 -86.16 OFF
0.2 degs to n and 0.5 deg to w.so move wnw
Is it the eye – to be clearly formed in 24
24 hrs forecast
300-400 mm rainfall in open sea….
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=THANE#
Gud nyt,dash,jon,vithansen,gopal ,vjay n kea… Am eager to c tmrw 5am sat pic with scs status..
good nyt sel go and sleep u ll be happy 200% in the morning
Is IMD site down?
storm slightly strengthening and moved slightly NW
snooze time now..ciao guys tmrw –hope Thane’s Thandav starts tmrw!
omg cola not at all interested in thane
its based on GFS so it will be like that only
@sel
zzzzz……
Anyone has memory of this cyclone
1994 Cyclone (Crossed near Chennai) – Destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more
—————————————————-
This cyclone i witnessed first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds….The cyclone scared the shit out of me.
I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary
http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=CpJlAAAAIBAJ&sjid=yJ4NAAAAIBAJ&pg=1694,2980541&dq=madras+cyclone&hl=en
Page no 3 and 5
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=P9oYG7HA76QC&dat=19941102&printsec=frontpage&hl=en
See page no.3
Don’t quite remember this 94 cyclone, but remember the infamous 96 cyclone in detail. IIRC, at that time this was the 3rd cyclone that was heading towards Bangladesh. Then the twist in the path and ended up crossing near Mahabs (?!). The cyclone made landfall around evening 6-7pm, wasn’t a drop of rain but was packed with heavy winds as it crossed into land.
In distant memories, 1984 was the only year our house got flooded and 1992 was the driest (1993 the year of ‘thanni’ lorry behind running :P).
BTW, thanks for the articles. Was nice to seee Madras on papers 🙂
1996 ended as a dud.
Recall of 1994 Severe cyclone – As Chennai fears from a Severe Cyclone Thane
——————-
I made it much simpler…
Anyone has memory of 1994 Severe Cyclone that crossed Chennai) – It was the destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more.
This cyclone i witnessed it first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds…. The cyclone scared the shit out of me. I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary. Hope Cyclone Thane doesnot make any destruction like this.
http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/12/recall-of-1994-cyclone-as-chennai-fears.html
according to jtwc 2 am report, system going to loose all its strength to vertical wind shear along its path before landfall. May be system would cross as a depression.
Sat pic shows its still chennai bound, and movement is still slow. The delay may help it reorganize a bit more – looks sightly out of shape now
centre is losing its circulation.hope it reaches us atleast as a deep dep
Looks like it’s losing shape fast… Hope it doesn’t dissipate
storm surge enters inland in manY parts of chennai
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5shtZ.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5shrZ.GIF y storm is losing its intensity??now reduced to 45kts eventhough shear luks fav,..sst is slightly >27 …by cnsdring these 2 factors,thane shld reintensify.
no sel its strengthening at 57 knots
intensity @57 now acc to adt values
Imd bulletin at 5.30am TROPICAL STORM THANE ADVISORY NO. TEN ISSUED AT 0000 UTC OF 28 TH DECEMBER 2011 BASED ON 2100 UTC CHARTS OF 27 TH DECEMBER 2011.
THE CYCLONIC STORM THANE OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINEDPRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF THE 27 TH DECEMBER 2011 NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 0 N AND LONGITUDE 86.0 0 E, ABOUT 600 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279), 650 KM NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) AND 700 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN CUDDALORE (43329) AND NELLORE (43245) AROUND MORNING OF 30 TH DECEMBER 2011.
ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT) IS ABOUT -85 0 C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.0 0 N TO16.0 0 N AND LONGITUDE 81.0 0 E TO 88.0 0 E.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA.
BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
Date/Time(UTC)
Position (lat. 0 N/ long. 0 E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
27-12-2011/2100
12.5/86.0
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0000
12.7/85.5
85-95 gusting to 100
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0600
12.9/85.0
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1200
13.1/84.5
95-105 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1800
13.3/84.0
100-110 gusting to 125
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/0600
13.3/83.0
100-110 gusting to 125
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1800
13.3/81.5
95-105 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/0600
13.2/79.5
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/1800
13.0/78.5
45-55 gusting to 65
Deep Depression
REMARK:
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 27-28 DEG. C. OVER THE REGION. IT IS RELATIVELY LESS TOWARDS TAMIL NADU AND SRI LANKA COAST BECOMING 26-27 DEG. C.THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50 – 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM AND LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM SQUARE NEAR TAMILNADU AND NORTH SRILANKA COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE PHASE 5 IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION,AS PER OUR PAST STUDIES.
THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 15 DEG. N AND HENCE HELPS INWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY CHANGE DURING PAST SIX HOURS.THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS. CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER THEY SUGGEST SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH RESPECT TO TRACK, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOVEMEN, SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ALSO IN AGREEMENT.
These IMD ppl are taking us for a ride. Trust me these rains will never arrive. There is a reason for cola and foreca to keep reducing their estimates.
Imd says rain will arrive only tomorrow and on Friday only a DD at best
no its comin towards us.rains wil arrive by 12 tonite acc to foreca
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&STRUCTUR=_&CREG=igms&CONT=asie&BIG=1&LOOP=12&ZEIT=201112280100
Kea i differ
IMD says DD after crossing the coast.that is near vellore.
Check the coordinates here
http://itouchmap.com/latlong.html
Jtwc – 272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 85.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271419Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A CONCENTRIC AND WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATETHE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM IS SEPARATING FROM VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE, WHICH MAY LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE BEING COMPENSATED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. TC 06B IS UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 26 TO 27 DEGREES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MYANMAR IS DRIVING TC 06B WESTWARD. THERE IS A MILD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, AND GFS IS SHOWING AN EXAGGERATED POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO THAT WEAKNESS. OTHER GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALONG TRACK BRINGING ABOUT A WEAKEING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET.
looks like the system is carrying lots of moisture.even a landfall 100km away on either side can cause vry hvy rainfall
Jon,
moniotor this site
it gives probability of rainfall….
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html?storm=THANE
do u have the link of nasa website wich provides prec accum chart??
foreca predicts pondi landfall not chennai and also increased predictions for pondi
it will not happen, they are not good trackers of cyclones
http://www.foreca.com/India/Union_Territory_of_Puducherry/Puducherry
look at this
Kea i differ
IMD says DD after crossing the coast.that is near vellore.
Check the coordinates here
http://itouchmap.com/latlong.html
it will cross the coast as severe cyclone acc to imd
ecmwf landfall just to s of chn as a severe cyclone
moved north
13.65 -85.46
error
gud mng jon, returned from a five day get away trip to quiet yercaud. What are the chances of rain in chennai? Has it moved towards AP?
no it hasnt moved towards ap.it will make Lf only near chn but the intensity is the only concern as of now
even gfs shows Lf just to n of us
I am getting a bit impatient here. When wil it start? predictions & forecsts are hard to believe until they come true.. Especially for chennai..
but do IMD bring out their bulletins 1 hour early sometimes. Isn’t it better to wait for another hour and get a better updated report?
what is the forecast for the next 2-days, any chances of heavy rain?
yes…cyclone to screw chennai..
12.57 -85.58
12.61 -85.35
moved w considerably
THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN WESTWARD
BY A DEEP STEERING RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER MYANMAR. AS TC 06B TRACKS WESTWARD, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER ANOTHER 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COUPLED
WITH THE LOSS OF ITS DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE, WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA
Cola predicting 2 mm from this system
he he but gfs has chnged its track slightly so some improvement expected 😀
at 8am.
big difference between 2 sites in marking the position..
lat jtwc track
still i couldnt believe the sytem track…its recurving twrds chennai..usually it will recurve away 4m chennai…
This system is still keeping everyone on the edge of their seats.
The landfall keeps extending by 1 day..
storm track is sharp westerly in direction…
JTWC REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:
1., TC 06B WILL LIKELY REACH PEAK INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 20 FEET. ( its very severe)
3. Maintaining its same track..so no change..
Around noon today. Thane is going to reach as CAT 1 STORM…
AT 8AM :
LAT : 12.18
Wind : 57 Kts
Pressure : 991.8 MB
as the system is moving at the rate of 4 Kts /Hr… will it not take 81 hrs to cover the 600 kms.. 1kt = 1.85 kms
It isn’t .. It is moving at the rate of 9 knts… Yesterday it intesified from 5 knts to 7 knots and today from 7 knots to 9 knots… Which means the system should cross anytime between tomorrow noon – evening…
Rains to commence from today midnight
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain