249 thoughts on “Cyclone Thane still on track

    • I think this is the silence before a storm. πŸ˜›

      What a surprise
      Kea bloggers are active only during the night and during holidays.
      Even a category I storm towards chennai is not enough for attracting our bloggers. But things will change by tomorrow for sure.

      • lets hope that it makes a landfall and cause less destruction.i cant wait anymore.if it makes landfall until when we will be getting rainfall?

  1. Tomoro will be the Big day with most number of threads if TC keeps its track. Day after tomo many of us may face power and network failures :-p

  2. Similarities between Thane and Jal

    Thane expected to become a Severe cyclone
    Jal was a Severe cyclone before weakening

    Thane expected to weaken before making landfall close to Chennai
    Jal weakened into a DD before making landfall over Chennai

    Rainfall from Thane – 0 mm
    Rainfall from Jal – 70 mm

    As Thane is expected to weaken before landfall, can we expect it to cross without any rainfall?

  3. why has Wunderground wikedly dropped its forecast to 11.9mm from Thane!Beats me..

    Karl Kiefer’s ( see her column in the right side of the wunderground page) predictions are “Meanwhile, Tropical Cyclone Six will continue moving through the Bay of Bengal as a tropical storm. No landfall is expected in southern India on Wednesday, but residents in the area just north of Sri Lanka should prepare for its eventual landfall.”

  4. What to expect from the E/NE horizon when Thane nears Chennai?

    Since this system has already attained cyclone status, there wont be any huge anvils/nimbus clouds visible..the current cirrus will slowly envelope the entire sky and giv a very hazy atmosphere..slowly high clouds will creep in and gets thicker and darker with strengthening winds and mild drizzle in the air..this will be till tmrw evening..from late night low clouds will be moving fast from N/NW, drizzles will get heavy and steady, rain rate will pickup gradually by thursday morning with monsterous winds…and the rest will be history πŸ˜€

  5. ecmwf on gfs: nan theriyama thaan kekuraen,nee enna avlo periya appataker ah???
    jtwc on gfs:- unakae avlo athupu naa,engallaku evlo irkum…
    kea blog: dai ….mangoose mandaya thoo. odu apdi

  6. Its moving north to take a curve…thats all nothing moving to AP

    AP latitude starts frm 14 N….if the system moves to that lat also, it will revert back to 12.4 lat …

    due to present UAC in NorthWest..

  7. Today evening the chillness in wind wasn’t much when compared with yesterday or day before…. as said earlier, the rain should commence from tomorrow evening if this cyclone travels at 7 knts… If it increases it speed to 10 knts, then the system will approach chennai much before than IMD predicted…

  8. IMD 7 pm report:Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message

    650km from Chennai :12.5-86.5

  9. MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS – 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
    POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    271800Z — 12.9N 85.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    280600Z — 13.1N 84.4E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    281800Z — 13.2N 83.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    290600Z — 13.1N 82.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

    POSITION NEAR 12.5N 86.4E.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 17 FEET

    • whats the difference between this and the super cyclone that hit orissa 1999 -05B?

      i remember a cyclone that crossed near pondy in 2000 0r 2001 that was only wind and no greater rains.chennai should have got 5cm i guess.will it be similar to one?

  10. Thane will briefly get Severe cyclone status tomorrow around noon time. From then on weakening will start as its nears the coast. It is expected to lose the Severe cyclone status by midnight.

    It is expected to make landfall as a DD, just like Jal

  11. Radar is not OK. whatever red spots it shows in west is not real. may be next picture it will be alright.

    now the latest satellite picture reveals, the system is taking a straight westward movement. now the clouds almost neared 82 east and between 11 and 15 latitude good cloud formation.

    tomorrow morning we will get cloudy weather and drizzle to commence late in evening.

    ss.

  12. Thane has slowed down considerably in the past few hours and is now almost stationary with minor movement Hope it moves fast so as to escape the wind shear and the decreasing sst

    • Jon- the core looks to be a deadly 350-400mm..thats deadly..apparently it has sucked in all the moisture from SE Asia and BOB..no wonder we see a purple patch..now now thats some storm!

      • the outer layers are a cool 100mm and then the inner core of 300-350mm can blank a surface area of 100-200kms..does that mean that even if the eye crosses- lets say Mahabalipuram-the 300mm rains can be between pulicat and Pondy?

      • s it will dump some serious rain if it follows the same path.it looks exactly like baaz which gave us almost 18cm in 4-5hrs and 28cm in 24hrs

    • lf just to n of us would be ideal since it is projected to move in wsw from e.so impact will be more over chennai than places to n of lf area

  13. Some international model suggested that the storm would lose some of the sting on the last-mile stretch due to increasing values of vertical wind shear.

    Vertical wind shear is the sudden change in wind speeds with height, and has proved the nemesis of building storms thanks to the β€˜shearing’ effect on top brought about by wayward winds, effectively destroying the storm tower.

    http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article2751756.ece?ref=wl_industry-and-economy

  14. it seems quite that many in the blog are eagerly awaiting the disaster want to be happened than worrying about its devastation caused. I am already frightened to the core on hearing that the probable rainfall in the range of 300-400mm. Chennai is not capable of even 80 mm rainfall as hitherto seen. God only saves Chennai from the disaster. As the rainfall is to last for only a few days, the flash floods will be a disaster than anything useful to our lakes or groundwater level. Hoping to get minimal damage from THANE for the sake of our Chennai. Tomorrow would be an important day for THANE and for Chennai as well. Be prepared for the worst but pray for the best.

  15. Hypothetically if Chennai has to get 200-300mm of rains,the city is ill-prepared to manage such rains in 24hrs..in besant nagar,there are still halfdug drains…garbage all over..completely eroded roads..can imagine the scene after the deluge!

    • spin factor doesnt matter.if the storm comes from se towards nw then i would prefer a lf to the s but the scenario ere is diff, storm is expected to come from ene or e and make a move towards wsw so the impact will be more over s of the lf area.anyway epdiyo mazha vantha seri πŸ™‚

  16. Anyone has memory of this cyclone

    1994 Cyclone (Crossed near Chennai) – Destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more
    —————————————————-
    This cyclone i witnessed first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds….The cyclone scared the shit out of me.

    I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary

    http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=CpJlAAAAIBAJ&sjid=yJ4NAAAAIBAJ&pg=1694,2980541&dq=madras+cyclone&hl=en

    Page no 3 and 5

    http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=P9oYG7HA76QC&dat=19941102&printsec=frontpage&hl=en

    See page no.3

    • Don’t quite remember this 94 cyclone, but remember the infamous 96 cyclone in detail. IIRC, at that time this was the 3rd cyclone that was heading towards Bangladesh. Then the twist in the path and ended up crossing near Mahabs (?!). The cyclone made landfall around evening 6-7pm, wasn’t a drop of rain but was packed with heavy winds as it crossed into land.

      In distant memories, 1984 was the only year our house got flooded and 1992 was the driest (1993 the year of ‘thanni’ lorry behind running :P).

      BTW, thanks for the articles. Was nice to seee Madras on papers πŸ™‚

  17. Recall of 1994 Severe cyclone – As Chennai fears from a Severe Cyclone Thane
    ——————-

    I made it much simpler…

    Anyone has memory of 1994 Severe Cyclone that crossed Chennai) – It was the destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more.

    This cyclone i witnessed it first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds…. The cyclone scared the shit out of me. I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary. Hope Cyclone Thane doesnot make any destruction like this.

    http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/12/recall-of-1994-cyclone-as-chennai-fears.html

  18. Imd bulletin at 5.30am TROPICAL STORM THANE ADVISORY NO. TEN ISSUED AT 0000 UTC OF 28 TH DECEMBER 2011 BASED ON 2100 UTC CHARTS OF 27 TH DECEMBER 2011.

    THE CYCLONIC STORM THANE OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL REMAINEDPRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 2100 UTC OF THE 27 TH DECEMBER 2011 NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 0 N AND LONGITUDE 86.0 0 E, ABOUT 600 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43279), 650 KM NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (43418) AND 700 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR (43333). THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS, INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 24 HRS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COASTS BETWEEN CUDDALORE (43329) AND NELLORE (43245) AROUND MORNING OF 30 TH DECEMBER 2011.

    ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T3.0.THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE(CTT) IS ABOUT -85 0 C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SEEN OVER BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 8.0 0 N TO16.0 0 N AND LONGITUDE 81.0 0 E TO 88.0 0 E.

    SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 45 KNOTS AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 992 HPA.

    BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

    Date/Time(UTC)

    Position (lat. 0 N/ long. 0 E)

    Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

    Intensity

    27-12-2011/2100

    12.5/86.0

    80-90 gusting to 100

    Cyclonic Storm

    28-12-2011/0000

    12.7/85.5

    85-95 gusting to 100

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    28-12-2011/0600

    12.9/85.0

    90-100 gusting to 110

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    28-12-2011/1200

    13.1/84.5

    95-105 gusting to 120

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    28-12-2011/1800

    13.3/84.0

    100-110 gusting to 125

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    29-12-2011/0600

    13.3/83.0

    100-110 gusting to 125

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    29-12-2011/1800

    13.3/81.5

    95-105 gusting to 120

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    30-12-2011/0600

    13.2/79.5

    80-90 gusting to 100

    Cyclonic Storm

    30-12-2011/1800

    13.0/78.5

    45-55 gusting to 65

    Deep Depression

    REMARK:

    CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 27-28 DEG. C. OVER THE REGION. IT IS RELATIVELY LESS TOWARDS TAMIL NADU AND SRI LANKA COAST BECOMING 26-27 DEG. C.THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50 – 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM AND LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM SQUARE NEAR TAMILNADU AND NORTH SRILANKA COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE PHASE 5 IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION,AS PER OUR PAST STUDIES.

    THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 15 DEG. N AND HENCE HELPS INWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY CHANGE DURING PAST SIX HOURS.THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW (5-10 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS. CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER THEY SUGGEST SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH RESPECT TO TRACK, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOVEMEN, SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ALSO IN AGREEMENT.

  19. These IMD ppl are taking us for a ride. Trust me these rains will never arrive. There is a reason for cola and foreca to keep reducing their estimates.

    Imd says rain will arrive only tomorrow and on Friday only a DD at best

  20. Jtwc – 272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 85.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271419Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A CONCENTRIC AND WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATETHE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH

    THE SYSTEM IS SEPARATING FROM VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE, WHICH MAY LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE BEING COMPENSATED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. TC 06B IS UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 26 TO 27 DEGREES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MYANMAR IS DRIVING TC 06B WESTWARD. THERE IS A MILD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, AND GFS IS SHOWING AN EXAGGERATED POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO THAT WEAKNESS. OTHER GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALONG TRACK BRINGING ABOUT A WEAKEING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET.

  21. I am getting a bit impatient here. When wil it start? predictions & forecsts are hard to believe until they come true.. Especially for chennai..

  22. THE SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN WESTWARD
    BY A DEEP STEERING RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
    WHICH IS ANCHORED OVER MYANMAR. AS TC 06B TRACKS WESTWARD, IT WILL
    ENCOUNTER ANOTHER 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND COUPLED
    WITH THE LOSS OF ITS DEEP MOISTURE SOURCE, WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
    BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, INDIA

  23. JTWC REPORT HIGHLIGHTS:

    1., TC 06B WILL LIKELY REACH PEAK INTENSITY
    DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS

    2. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    280000Z IS 20 FEET. ( its very severe)

    3. Maintaining its same track..so no change..

      • It isn’t .. It is moving at the rate of 9 knts… Yesterday it intesified from 5 knts to 7 knots and today from 7 knots to 9 knots… Which means the system should cross anytime between tomorrow noon – evening…

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