we will hope to get some rains.Full credit to selvafun for predicting this as a major system.i have introduction to any1 here but my wishes to him and all in the blog.gud nit.
I was about to post the same, what does it mean ? It doesnt look like the intensity or pressure has gone down. But the weakening/rapid dissipation flags are both on..
System pressure plummets to 994 mb in the last 6 hrs ! So, it reaches the deep depression status ! Winds, currently at 40 knts are expected to strengthen soon, and cover the outer periphery too.Expected to become a cyclone on further deepening within 6-12 hrs.
Now,at 7.30 pm, located at 11.7N and 87E, it seems the system continues to move North. Superb convection and build up has resulted in the highest cloud top temperatures reaching a phenomenal -78c !
We can expect a ridge axis to quickly develop above the 12N line, which will make the system turn westwards.Vagaries expects the cyclone to cross the T.N. coast south of Chennai by 28th late night
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 1431Z SSMIS IMAGE
AND THE LATEST POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AIDED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE OCEAN
CONTENT. THEREAFTER, PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE
INLAND BY TAU 96. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A STRONG STEERING RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF TC
06B OVER TIME. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 14 FEET.
Since its technically still NEM season, even if it moves northwards, it should eventually meet resistance which makes it drift westwards towards us no? Lets see 😀
Basically Gfs is predicting a weaker system to hit Chennai. Imd and JTWC see things differently and expect it to intensify instead of weaken. It is still too early to say who will be correct.
Thats good news I guess. Rather have a weak one hitting chennai than see a strong one drift away northwards.
Dated: 27.12. 2011 Time of issue:0400 hours IST
The cyclonic storm ‘THANE’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0230 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 11.00N and longitude 87.5.0E, about 800 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 550 km west-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. Then it is likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.
its 100% hitting TN only..but where and when… and how the intensity will be is the question ???
Its taking too much time due to high wind shear…but if it remains more in the sea it will get weak also..if it reaches the our land latitude it may get intenstify..
We have to wait for 1 more day….to get the correct picture..
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE OCEAN CONTENT VIE WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THEREAFTER, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO
WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI JUST
AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96.
on what basis are you saying this? It is still 420 NM (740 km) east of chennai. As youa re saying toomorrow night, that is around 40 hours from now. It has to travel 18.5 km/hr. It is currently travelling at 9 km/hr
If you do the basic calculation. At the current speed it will take approx 82 hours to make landfall.
BBC is adamant that it will dive steeply towards S/SW and cross near Nagai..because of something that will push it hard from N/NW..culprit should be the cold westerlies..it may come true 😦
Now new twist in the story…bbc forecast is also to b considered bcos if u c the following pic,.v can c the ridge (hp )tat is north of the system is xtending down w-sw twrds chennai..so w-sw track cant be ruled out ,but chance of hitting chennai is high.. http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/maps/2011-12-27_TopChart_07.jpg
temp is raising now.not pessimistic but i still feel that we will miss or escape from the fury of this system.my family members seeing the news says mostly cyclone hits nagai or cuddalore.
The latest satellite picture is deadly. very thick circular cloud mass for a radius of nearly 300 KMS. But it is little bit doubtful whether the system can withstand for another 48 hours in open sea. Considering the high pressure and ridge at 13.5 north, from now on, it has move west and probably hit pondicherry if it moves in a straight line towards west from present position.
more than north tamil nadu south andhra coast nellore up to machilipatnam would get heavy rains and those rains are very userful for the coastal andhra. a very clear picture is likely in another 12 hours.
IMD: 8.30 report :The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 11.50N and longitude 87.0.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu)
It needed to cross 13 for us to have a better chance. The best we can do now is watch the cyclone hitting Pondy in the news
Eye of the storm is clear…. Hope it should cross chennai by 28th night or by 29th morning.. However, IMD says as 30th… All depends on the movement of the storm..
BBC predict nagapattinam,other model is mahabalipuram, other model predict visahapattinam some models its loose its strength in sea normal low give good rains but cyclone like this go any where its wind pattern is important any latest news please update
Machlipatnam radar just now detects drizzling at about 200 KMS east of nellore, which signifies the system gettting closer to coast. probably by evening chennai radar might throw similar signals. interesting to keep track. chances of moving north are remote, as already above 14 north ridge is placed and morover sea surface temperatures could be less for the system to travel. going by the present indications, it has to follow the west route to touch the land probably pondy-mahabalipuram belt or pulicat-nellore belt.
Thane still expected to cross over South Chennai..between Adambakkam and Medavakkam..areas affected will include Velachery, Madipakkam, Keelkattalai, interior areas of Pallvaram and Chromepet and East Tambaram
There are nearly 3 different satellities which sends pictures at regular intervals. The latitude 13.39 as north taken from water vapor, which always shows 0.5 to 1 degree difference. That is why it is shown as 13.39 north, whereas it is only 12.39 north. so for tracking purpose, this satellite records can be ignored. better you view it in infra red always which get you an accurate latitude, longtitude. still IMD satellite shows 0.5 degree difference from JTWC. Both IMD, & JTWC are reliable. now the system slowly taking westerly route. once it reached 85 east, we can get cloudy weather and showers.
navy nrl also predicts it to move sw in direction but coming little closer to chennai on its extended outlook but thanni kaatifying and making landfall in kovalam in between lotus sea farms and ideal beach resort
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 13.0N 82.6E
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 12.7N 80.3E
Sub : Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast.
The cyclonic storm ‘THANE’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 87.0.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
27-12-2011/1130
12.0/87.0
75-85 gusting to 95
Cyclonic Storm
27-12-2011/1730
12.3/86.5
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
27-12-2011/2330
12.5/86.0
85-95 gusting to 105
Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0530
12.6/85.5
95-105 gusting to 115
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1130
12.7/85.0
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/2330
12.8/83.8
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1130
13.0/82.5
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/2330
13.0/81.2
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/1130
13.0/80.0
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (A 270717Z AMSU IMAGE HINTS AT POSSIBLE TILT IN THE SYSTEM
KeaWeather Archives 
well we can only pray and wish this storm comes to us. But then what is really gonna happen … the details will pan out in the next 2 days.
On WEDNESDAY EVENING OR BY THURSDAY MORNGN WE WILL KNOW IF WE HAVE SMILES ON OUR FACE OR DISSAPOINTMENT..
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/article2749940.ece?homepage=true
hopefully it intensifies wen i woke up good night
Wish the same here.. fingers crossed.. Good Nite
we will hope to get some rains.Full credit to selvafun for predicting this as a major system.i have introduction to any1 here but my wishes to him and all in the blog.gud nit.
@Grully,Tanks man..
@ happy that u replied sel.i am zero in weather forecasting and other things but all ur info is informative.
Not tday,but am sure tmrw the blog wil be active 24 hrs even in midnight too…
rapid weakening flag on
I was about to post the same, what does it mean ? It doesnt look like the intensity or pressure has gone down. But the weakening/rapid dissipation flags are both on..
If it try to cross very close to chennai it is jal2.
Still the cold winds in chennai?? i dnt knw y still ther is a twist in the story..
But i think it will cross near mahabalipuram. So we will get heavy rain.
Selva good night.
Let us see.
it is almost parallel to us now past 12 n no westward movt yet i think gfs gonna win
System pressure plummets to 994 mb in the last 6 hrs ! So, it reaches the deep depression status ! Winds, currently at 40 knts are expected to strengthen soon, and cover the outer periphery too.Expected to become a cyclone on further deepening within 6-12 hrs.
Now,at 7.30 pm, located at 11.7N and 87E, it seems the system continues to move North. Superb convection and build up has resulted in the highest cloud top temperatures reaching a phenomenal -78c !
We can expect a ridge axis to quickly develop above the 12N line, which will make the system turn westwards.Vagaries expects the cyclone to cross the T.N. coast south of Chennai by 28th late night
posted by Mr.Rajesh in his website
This is most likely going to fizzle out 😦
Jim Andrews at last has spoken
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/tropical-cyclone-a-threat-to-i/59506?partner=accuweather
Its going to fizzle out
Wake Up Frnds..
Flash News : Thane Cyclone formed…
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm
THANE TRACKS:
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/obtrack.htm
Still very very cold n foggy.
at 5.30am., wil it recurve.? http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/indian/winds/wm5vorZ.GIF
gfs says it ll go north and reach us as depression
its very slow and i think due to sst and shear struggling there
sel
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt
in this, time is showing 12 am on 27 dec its 6 hours late or its present time
its present time. its GMT add 5.30hrs to it
Add 5.30 hrs to tat ,so it was at 5.30 am…btw sun news flashing it.
weakening flag off now
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 1431Z SSMIS IMAGE
AND THE LATEST POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, HAS PERSISTED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS EXTENDING
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, AIDED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE OCEAN
CONTENT. THEREAFTER, PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE
INLAND BY TAU 96. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY
FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A STRONG STEERING RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF TC
06B OVER TIME. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 14 FEET.
There it is…visible shot of cyclone eye ,c how the cloud tops are…amazing.
Some westward movement, but very little….suspicion that it will head north still remains 😦
System turning west ,so the rain band may reach us in few hours.
funny, u still have hope of rain from this system?
Since its technically still NEM season, even if it moves northwards, it should eventually meet resistance which makes it drift westwards towards us no? Lets see 😀
another forum which believes westwards movement of “Thane” from now on..
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72049-tropical-cyclone-thane/page__pid__2197701#entry2197701
Can the xperts decipher this list..it suddenly shows 12.86N..does it mean that it has moved northwards away from us?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt
As i told earlier It will travel till 13.1 N latitude & revert back to 12.5 by today evening due to present UAC in NorthWest..
Enna Kodumai sir ithu…
BBC predicting the cyclone will hit S.TN now…Its taking a deep curve from north to south..
Now which prediction we have to believe JTWC or BBC ??????
We have to wait till JTWC forecast …
Basically Gfs is predicting a weaker system to hit Chennai. Imd and JTWC see things differently and expect it to intensify instead of weaken. It is still too early to say who will be correct.
BBC predicting a weaker system to hit S.TN
CHANCES OF IT GOING ABOVE CHENNAI ARE ABSOLUTELY ZERO
Thats good news I guess. Rather have a weak one hitting chennai than see a strong one drift away northwards.
Dated: 27.12. 2011 Time of issue:0400 hours IST
The cyclonic storm ‘THANE’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0230 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 11.00N and longitude 87.5.0E, about 800 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 550 km west-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. Then it is likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.
Romba late news. Cyclone approaching tamilnadu.
its 100% hitting TN only..but where and when… and how the intensity will be is the question ???
Its taking too much time due to high wind shear…but if it remains more in the sea it will get weak also..if it reaches the our land latitude it may get intenstify..
We have to wait for 1 more day….to get the correct picture..
JTWC Maintains the same forecast…
jtwc update out.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH IS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND MODERATE OCEAN CONTENT VIE WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THEREAFTER, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PERSISTENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO
WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI JUST
AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96.
Cyclone THANE will cross near MAHBALIPURAM at least as depression tomorrow night.
on what basis are you saying this? It is still 420 NM (740 km) east of chennai. As youa re saying toomorrow night, that is around 40 hours from now. It has to travel 18.5 km/hr. It is currently travelling at 9 km/hr
If you do the basic calculation. At the current speed it will take approx 82 hours to make landfall.
Sill looking gud 🙂
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai
Its looking better. Foreca has increased the precipitation to 140 mm for Chennai.
Its the highest it has predicted so far.
But why is the precp amt so low. is max 140 all expected from a cyclone like this ?
Chandru,
Foreca is known for its precipitation prediction and not the volume. 140 mm for me is good from a year end cyclone.
Lets see what an updated cola predicts around 12.00 noon
Now landfall on Friday. Will the cyclone survive another day at sea?
BBC is adamant that it will dive steeply towards S/SW and cross near Nagai..because of something that will push it hard from N/NW..culprit should be the cold westerlies..it may come true 😦
Everybody blame it on ashwinds12 (BN beach boy)..he was the one who always wanted cold fresh air from the west to enjoy margazhi 😀
Gopal due to shifting of Eye, sometimes we can see the location drastically north and South and vice versa.
“But why is the precp amt so low. is max 140 all expected from a cyclone like this ?”
You are making Kea to laugh badly..he is expecting sunny, dry and cold weather from Thursday 😀
🙂
Its over. No need to waste time on Thane – the return of Jal
Something or the other will happen and Chennai will be left dry. Only thing to look forward to now is a hot and dry summer
@kea
What is the reason behind your words
Sorry it seems a mistake in calculation.
Kea, i think you have change the heading, this cyclone cant be JAL
Now new twist in the story…bbc forecast is also to b considered bcos if u c the following pic,.v can c the ridge (hp )tat is north of the system is xtending down w-sw twrds chennai..so w-sw track cant be ruled out ,but chance of hitting chennai is high.. http://www.tmd.go.th/programs/uploads/maps/2011-12-27_TopChart_07.jpg
Storm surge in ennore…warning has been issued n roads hav been blocked.
sea waves enters 500mts inland in cuddalore
temp is raising now.not pessimistic but i still feel that we will miss or escape from the fury of this system.my family members seeing the news says mostly cyclone hits nagai or cuddalore.
Can somebody wake IMD? It’s 9:30 and their 8:30 update is still pending
when have you ever seen any Govt office in India function on time.. all the more reason we need the join the Jan Lokpal Bill.
KEA.
The latest satellite picture is deadly. very thick circular cloud mass for a radius of nearly 300 KMS. But it is little bit doubtful whether the system can withstand for another 48 hours in open sea. Considering the high pressure and ridge at 13.5 north, from now on, it has move west and probably hit pondicherry if it moves in a straight line towards west from present position.
more than north tamil nadu south andhra coast nellore up to machilipatnam would get heavy rains and those rains are very userful for the coastal andhra. a very clear picture is likely in another 12 hours.
ss.
IMD report out, Its crossing between Chennai and Puducherry, probably close to Mahabalipuram
IMD: 8.30 report :The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 11.50N and longitude 87.0.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu)
its now parallel to tambaram
it has started movin west
W-S-W.
It needed to cross 13 for us to have a better chance. The best we can do now is watch the cyclone hitting Pondy in the news
Eye of the storm is clear…. Hope it should cross chennai by 28th night or by 29th morning.. However, IMD says as 30th… All depends on the movement of the storm..
This image is clear….
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc11/IO/06B.THANE/vis/geo/1km_zoom/full/20111227.0330.meteo7.x.vis1km_high.06BTHANE.45kts-989mb-119N-873E.100pc.html
One More Forecast Image…
It is already at 12.41N. Unless it comes more north, this thing will move away from Chennai
BBC predict nagapattinam,other model is mahabalipuram, other model predict visahapattinam some models its loose its strength in sea normal low give good rains but cyclone like this go any where its wind pattern is important any latest news please update
What else update do u need? Everything is pouring..even if u don ask, everybody will post whatever possible..
Please remove the “please update” from your question template 😀
Machlipatnam radar just now detects drizzling at about 200 KMS east of nellore, which signifies the system gettting closer to coast. probably by evening chennai radar might throw similar signals. interesting to keep track. chances of moving north are remote, as already above 14 north ridge is placed and morover sea surface temperatures could be less for the system to travel. going by the present indications, it has to follow the west route to touch the land probably pondy-mahabalipuram belt or pulicat-nellore belt.
ss.
maisuh, its very difficult to believe..bcoz even yesterday there were spots near AP coast
Sel and Dash
http://www.imdchennai.gov.in/ 😆 😆 😆
what would be the impact on chennai if it crosses between pondy and mahabalipuram?
Minimal/Average impact on South Chennai and absolutely no impact (winds and rain) for Nunga..
I am confused.
See this now, http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/obtrack.htm
don worryyyyy…beee happyyyyyy…… 🙂
We don have any confusion at all..u r only confusing everyone with ur contradictory comments
OMG!!!
Maya Bunder (Andaman) 185 mm 😮
JTWC track:
Thane still expected to cross over South Chennai..between Adambakkam and Medavakkam..areas affected will include Velachery, Madipakkam, Keelkattalai, interior areas of Pallvaram and Chromepet and East Tambaram
😀
At 5.22 GMT…THANE STATUS..
LAT : 11.9 N
LON : 87.3 E
WIND : 45 kts
source?
Thane will travel till 13.0 N lattitude to next 36 hrs with 50kts and land near 12.7 N * 80.3 E with 45 kts on 30th dec…
2011DEC27 043000
53 kts 12.63 -87.12 Wkng Flg-ON
India 158/2
Sachin – 44
Thane – less than 750 km away
Wealening flag OFF!!!! Decisively turned west
12.26N 86.97E
Status of Thane Updating in this site…
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/main.html
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/201106B.html
Kea…
This is the source
IMD 10 30 REPORT OUT…….
Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
27-12-2011/0830
12.0/87.0
75-85 gusting to 95
Cyclonic Storm
27-12-2011/1130
12.2/86.8
85-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
27-12-2011/1730
12.3/86.5
85-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
27-12-2011/2330
12.5/86.0
85-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0530
12.5/85.5
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1730
12.8/84.0
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/0530
13.0/82.5
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1730
13.0/81.5
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/0530
13.0/80.5
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
Cyclone eye well exposed in recent imd sat image
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
THANE IMAGE & PREDICTION
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=06B&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=11.9&lon=87.3&zoom=6&type=hyb&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=1&hur.wr=0&hur.cod=1&hur.fx=1&hur.obs=1&fire=0&ft=0&sl=0
strange strange strange
even with this WU not predicting anything for chennaui
chennai in trouble.its moving w 😉
haha – welcome trouble
hmmm welcome trouble for now.but things could change rapidly 🙂
something or the other will come in its way and chennai will be dissaponted again
dissapointment again?? chennai has benefited from many cyclones since 2004 so hopes r high.im expecting something like JAL again 😀
system likely to intensify into severe cyclonic storm in few hours as the shear makes the sytem to relax…
visible shot at 12.30 IST
i hope you all remember your predictions from this Cyclone
25mm 😦 😀
yes yes kea its 130mm from my side.i would be happy to lose i.e if we get more than 130mm.
thane reminds me of cyclone baaz
baaz sat img
sachin out for 73????? 😀 😀 😛
😦
i remember APJ Kalamji asking met officials to predict the accurate amount of rainfall for a place rather than saying the assumption value.
is that really possible to calculate from the system severity?
is there any report of sea surge in chennai?
all news channels show sea surge taking place in seacity,pamban and pondy.
ya…,,cuddalore – chennai stretch facing it..
Cirrus clouds getting thicker and darker..
2011DEC27 070000
12.95 -86.90 OFF
dash.give tat site link…
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt
BBC tells Chennaiitees…
“Do not expect more than a couple of heavy passing showers..total less than 5 cm”
😦
BBC Track – Nagai, Nagercoil, Kanyakumari
Include Pudukotai, Madurai and Thirunelveli also 😦
is it moving north ? latest coordinates – 12.95 86.90 – http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt
i think bbc track is crap.the only way the system can reach nagai is if it moves ssw,which is impossible
latest coordinates 13.39 86.91 -> http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt – Guys is this moving North ?
omg!! passed chennai lat 13.39 86.91 😦
wat a difference…..
at 1.30pm IST .update from nrlmry.navy.mil site shows the system position at 12.4N,86.7E..system core at 982mb with 55 knts
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu, site update at 1pm IST shows as
POSITION-13.39N 86.91E intensity of 53 knts
jon,r u checking the system position (lat and long) with google maps??? if not try it…
check the animation
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/COLOR/SOUTHERNASIA/index.htm
its Goooood …… latest coordinates 12.46 86.50 -> http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/06B-list.txt
JTWC forecast is out. Thane target is Chennai again
JTWC showing more Strengthening
80 knots gusts on 28th…..
Started moving SW as per BBC track???
2011DEC27 080000
12.46 -86.50 ON
Mr. Selvanfun.
There are nearly 3 different satellities which sends pictures at regular intervals. The latitude 13.39 as north taken from water vapor, which always shows 0.5 to 1 degree difference. That is why it is shown as 13.39 north, whereas it is only 12.39 north. so for tracking purpose, this satellite records can be ignored. better you view it in infra red always which get you an accurate latitude, longtitude. still IMD satellite shows 0.5 degree difference from JTWC. Both IMD, & JTWC are reliable. now the system slowly taking westerly route. once it reached 85 east, we can get cloudy weather and showers.
navy nrl also predicts it to move sw in direction but coming little closer to chennai on its extended outlook but thanni kaatifying and making landfall in kovalam in between lotus sea farms and ideal beach resort
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z — 13.0N 82.6E
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z — 12.7N 80.3E
When will we get our first rain? Thursday early morning!
http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?map=rain
Mid June, or if we are lucky some lite showers in april
hahahaha – very optimistic 😉
At 8.53 GMT ( 2.20PM IST)…THANE STATUS..
LAT : 12.4 N
LON : 86.7 E
WIND : 55 KTS
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/main.html
At 10.30 AM..
WIND was: 45 kts ..now its 55 kts
no change in imd latest bulletin
Dated: 27.12. 2011 Time of issue:1330 hours IST
Sub : Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast.
The cyclonic storm ‘THANE’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 87.0.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
Intensity
27-12-2011/1130
12.0/87.0
75-85 gusting to 95
Cyclonic Storm
27-12-2011/1730
12.3/86.5
80-90 gusting to 100
Cyclonic Storm
27-12-2011/2330
12.5/86.0
85-95 gusting to 105
Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/0530
12.6/85.5
95-105 gusting to 115
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/1130
12.7/85.0
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
28-12-2011/2330
12.8/83.8
100-110 gusting to 120
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/1130
13.0/82.5
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
29-12-2011/2330
13.0/81.2
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
30-12-2011/1130
13.0/80.0
90-100 gusting to 110
Severe Cyclonic Storm
ss,oh..i got it…but tat makes a big difference knw?? anyway nice info..keep updating.
THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (A 270717Z AMSU IMAGE HINTS AT POSSIBLE TILT IN THE SYSTEM
what does the tilt mean
“Mid June, or if we are lucky some lite showers in april
-Kea
”
Sel,Jon – any comments??? 😀
apdi sollum pothu namma ethum pesa kudathu,udanae keep ur hand on ur forehead…. aaaan ipadi thaan
nan apdiyae shock aiytaen wen i heard tat it was moving north….but latest position shows tat it is moving west…
