200 thoughts on “Will Thane end up being Jal part 2?

  1. well we can only pray and wish this storm comes to us. But then what is really gonna happen … the details will pan out in the next 2 days.

  2. we will hope to get some rains.Full credit to selvafun for predicting this as a major system.i have introduction to any1 here but my wishes to him and all in the blog.gud nit.

  3. System pressure plummets to 994 mb in the last 6 hrs ! So, it reaches the deep depression status ! Winds, currently at 40 knts are expected to strengthen soon, and cover the outer periphery too.Expected to become a cyclone on further deepening within 6-12 hrs.
    Now,at 7.30 pm, located at 11.7N and 87E, it seems the system continues to move North. Superb convection and build up has resulted in the highest cloud top temperatures reaching a phenomenal -78c !

    We can expect a ridge axis to quickly develop above the 12N line, which will make the system turn westwards.Vagaries expects the cyclone to cross the T.N. coast south of Chennai by 28th late night

    posted by Mr.Rajesh in his website

  4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST
    OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
    PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 1431Z SSMIS IMAGE
    AND THE LATEST POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ESTIMATES FROM
    PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
    SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED LOW
    LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    CYCLONE LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN
    AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. STRONG POLEWARD
    OUTFLOW, AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH, HAS PERSISTED
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE
    INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS EXTENDING
    WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE OF THE
    AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS, AIDED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE OCEAN
    CONTENT. THEREAFTER, PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
    HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE
    SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE
    INLAND BY TAU 96. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY
    FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND
    EXPECTATIONS OF A STRONG STEERING RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF TC
    06B OVER TIME. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
    OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
    HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 14 FEET.

  5. Enna Kodumai sir ithu…

    BBC predicting the cyclone will hit S.TN now…Its taking a deep curve from north to south..

    Now which prediction we have to believe JTWC or BBC ??????

    We have to wait till JTWC forecast …

  6. Basically Gfs is predicting a weaker system to hit Chennai. Imd and JTWC see things differently and expect it to intensify instead of weaken. It is still too early to say who will be correct.

  7. Dated: 27.12. 2011 Time of issue:0400 hours IST

    The cyclonic storm รขโ‚ฌหœTHANEรขโ‚ฌโ„ข over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0230 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 11.00N and longitude 87.5.0E, about 800 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 550 km west-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs. Then it is likely to move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.

  8. its 100% hitting TN only..but where and when… and how the intensity will be is the question ???

    Its taking too much time due to high wind shear…but if it remains more in the sea it will get weak also..if it reaches the our land latitude it may get intenstify..

    We have to wait for 1 more day….to get the correct picture..

  9. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN
    WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
    WHICH IS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE
    OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO
    SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
    AND MODERATE OCEAN CONTENT VIE WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR. THEREAFTER, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PERSISTENT
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO
    WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI JUST
    AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96.

    • on what basis are you saying this? It is still 420 NM (740 km) east of chennai. As youa re saying toomorrow night, that is around 40 hours from now. It has to travel 18.5 km/hr. It is currently travelling at 9 km/hr

      If you do the basic calculation. At the current speed it will take approx 82 hours to make landfall.

  10. BBC is adamant that it will dive steeply towards S/SW and cross near Nagai..because of something that will push it hard from N/NW..culprit should be the cold westerlies..it may come true ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

  11. “But why is the precp amt so low. is max 140 all expected from a cyclone like this ?”

    You are making Kea to laugh badly..he is expecting sunny, dry and cold weather from Thursday ๐Ÿ˜€

    • temp is raising now.not pessimistic but i still feel that we will miss or escape from the fury of this system.my family members seeing the news says mostly cyclone hits nagai or cuddalore.

    • when have you ever seen any Govt office in India function on time.. all the more reason we need the join the Jan Lokpal Bill.

  12. KEA.

    The latest satellite picture is deadly. very thick circular cloud mass for a radius of nearly 300 KMS. But it is little bit doubtful whether the system can withstand for another 48 hours in open sea. Considering the high pressure and ridge at 13.5 north, from now on, it has move west and probably hit pondicherry if it moves in a straight line towards west from present position.

    more than north tamil nadu south andhra coast nellore up to machilipatnam would get heavy rains and those rains are very userful for the coastal andhra. a very clear picture is likely in another 12 hours.

    ss.

  13. IMD: 8.30 report :The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 11.50N and longitude 87.0.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu)

  14. BBC predict nagapattinam,other model is mahabalipuram, other model predict visahapattinam some models its loose its strength in sea normal low give good rains but cyclone like this go any where its wind pattern is important any latest news please update

  15. Machlipatnam radar just now detects drizzling at about 200 KMS east of nellore, which signifies the system gettting closer to coast. probably by evening chennai radar might throw similar signals. interesting to keep track. chances of moving north are remote, as already above 14 north ridge is placed and morover sea surface temperatures could be less for the system to travel. going by the present indications, it has to follow the west route to touch the land probably pondy-mahabalipuram belt or pulicat-nellore belt.

    ss.

  16. JTWC track:

    Thane still expected to cross over South Chennai..between Adambakkam and Medavakkam..areas affected will include Velachery, Madipakkam, Keelkattalai, interior areas of Pallvaram and Chromepet and East Tambaram

    ๐Ÿ˜€

  17. IMD 10 30 REPORT OUT…….

    Date/Time(IST)

    Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

    Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

    Intensity

    27-12-2011/0830

    12.0/87.0

    75-85 gusting to 95

    Cyclonic Storm

    27-12-2011/1130

    12.2/86.8

    85-90 gusting to 100

    Cyclonic Storm

    27-12-2011/1730

    12.3/86.5

    85-90 gusting to 100

    Cyclonic Storm

    27-12-2011/2330

    12.5/86.0

    85-90 gusting to 100

    Cyclonic Storm

    28-12-2011/0530

    12.5/85.5

    100-110 gusting to 120

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    28-12-2011/1730

    12.8/84.0

    100-110 gusting to 120

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    29-12-2011/0530

    13.0/82.5

    90-100 gusting to 110

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    29-12-2011/1730

    13.0/81.5

    90-100 gusting to 110

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

    30-12-2011/0530

    13.0/80.5

    90-100 gusting to 110

    Severe Cyclonic Storm

  18. i remember APJ Kalamji asking met officials to predict the accurate amount of rainfall for a place rather than saying the assumption value.

    is that really possible to calculate from the system severity?

  19. Mr. Selvanfun.

    There are nearly 3 different satellities which sends pictures at regular intervals. The latitude 13.39 as north taken from water vapor, which always shows 0.5 to 1 degree difference. That is why it is shown as 13.39 north, whereas it is only 12.39 north. so for tracking purpose, this satellite records can be ignored. better you view it in infra red always which get you an accurate latitude, longtitude. still IMD satellite shows 0.5 degree difference from JTWC. Both IMD, & JTWC are reliable. now the system slowly taking westerly route. once it reached 85 east, we can get cloudy weather and showers.

  20. navy nrl also predicts it to move sw in direction but coming little closer to chennai on its extended outlook but thanni kaatifying and making landfall in kovalam in between lotus sea farms and ideal beach resort
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    290000Z — 13.0N 82.6E
    72 HRS, VALID AT:
    300000Z — 12.7N 80.3E

  21. no change in imd latest bulletin

    Dated: 27.12. 2011 Time of issue:1330 hours IST

    Sub : Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast.

    The cyclonic storm รขโ‚ฌหœTHANEรขโ‚ฌโ„ข over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 27th December 2011 near latitude 12.00N and longitude 87.0.0E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30th December 2011.

    Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
    Date/Time(IST)
    Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
    Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
    Intensity
    27-12-2011/1130
    12.0/87.0
    75-85 gusting to 95
    Cyclonic Storm
    27-12-2011/1730
    12.3/86.5
    80-90 gusting to 100
    Cyclonic Storm
    27-12-2011/2330
    12.5/86.0
    85-95 gusting to 105
    Cyclonic Storm
    28-12-2011/0530
    12.6/85.5
    95-105 gusting to 115
    Severe Cyclonic Storm
    28-12-2011/1130
    12.7/85.0
    100-110 gusting to 120
    Severe Cyclonic Storm
    28-12-2011/2330
    12.8/83.8
    100-110 gusting to 120
    Severe Cyclonic Storm
    29-12-2011/1130
    13.0/82.5
    90-100 gusting to 110
    Severe Cyclonic Storm
    29-12-2011/2330
    13.0/81.2
    90-100 gusting to 110
    Severe Cyclonic Storm
    30-12-2011/1130
    13.0/80.0
    90-100 gusting to 110
    Severe Cyclonic Storm

  22. THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (A 270717Z AMSU IMAGE HINTS AT POSSIBLE TILT IN THE SYSTEM

    what does the tilt mean

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