408 thoughts on “NEM to begin by 22nd Oct

  1. Back to Chennai and the difference is striking – 9.30 AM and its already up to 32 degrees and there is hardly any breeze – our city really is a cursed oven with no semblance whatsoever of seasons. I hope the rains start soon to give us some temporary relief from the misery.

    • This weather is a sign of transition. High temps and no breeze indicates that ITCZ is very close. Once it passes over to the south, anticlockwise circulation will allow NE Monsoon to sweep in

  2. According to gfs,the convectional cloud mass near lanka wil move twrds Gulf of mannar and wil act as a lp on 12th..widespread rainfall to coastal s.tamil nadu predicted


    A rain wave is shown as entering the Tamil Nadu coast from across the Bay of Bengal, travel to the west and continue to precipitate as it enters the Arabian Sea.

    The lone global cyclone tracking model that sees a system brewing in the Arabian Sea later during the month continues to maintain the forecast.

    Meanwhile, the strength of the evolving repeat La Nina is being tracked to assess implications for the impending northeast monsoon (monsoon in reverse).

    • from what I understand from the above forecast, this would prove disastorous for NEM. I think what its saying is the system will cross TN and enter Arabian sea and form into a cyclone .

  4. Palayankottai records almost 40 Deg C yesterday..
    We will continue to see such high temperatures before the onset of NEM.
    I guess these temp are nothign new to chennai and TN. History will tell us all

  5. Kea,Cola model also predicting system in arabian sea, west-sw of karnataka coast.i alrdy had a eye over tat strange zone ,sst exceeding 30*,.,i think tis convectional area wil cross TN has Lp and bla..bla..in arb sea…

  6. both the fnalists cheated with the rules.

    RCB – how did Gayle get into the team? He replaced Nannes (injured) in IPL 4. How come both played in the same team then in CL?

    MI – Played 5 non Indian players in the team, this violating the IPL team rules.

  7. Several models now hinting at a circulation off Kerala cost around 18th Oct. This is to be watched closely.

  8. Kea, mumbai team permitted to play with 5 non-ind players cos of injuries to ind players and Rcb playd with 4 foreign playrs only(dilshan,gayle,vettori,nannes).so no violations of rules.

    • no violation of rules by RCB?

      Gayle was never a RCB player, he only replaced Nannes who was injured in IPL 4. So when Nannes returned, Gayle should have left.

      Remember he was not picked in the auction.

      • * when did on set of north east monsoon will come to chennai
        * record temperature in chennai 34.1 its summer bact to chennai
        * please tell the clear picture
        * please say clear please update kea weather answer for onset of northeast monsoon
        * imd always gives important to south east monsoon

        Sel, im back..wat do u expect from me now?

        Ippa naa enna seyya? Ippa naa enna seyya? ๐Ÿ˜€

      • it will cross us first and give us max 100-150 mm. And then what? All the moisture is gone and dry weather back until that system disintegrates quickly.

  9. Models saying LP wil cross lanka or south Tn ,and the System may intensify aftr crossing our coast so alrdy v wil get somethng…. It wont be good if system forms in arb sea at tis moment..,In case if it forms,our bay wil surely supports with gud moisture, crossing our coast…so ther would be heavy fall of rain in 1 or 2 places.,…i wish,it shldnt form.

  10. Always,V comes to knw the possiblity of cyclone only 4m foreign models….y v r lik tis? Wher v lag??..v wil get sum warning 4m gud models,weather organisation ,and then Imd wil proudly issue the same warning ,as if they wer the 1st to spot it……

  11. I agree with dash, system near N.kerala/s.karnataka is far better so tat v wil c sum massive rain clouds moving 4m bay ,and crossing us, joins there making a contribution to the part of cyclone..,.and another case.v wont c any clouds if system forms in central bay…

  12. An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal extending upto3.1 km above
    mean sea level. The trough from this system extends to Lakshadweep with an embedded upper air cyclonic circulation in lower
    levels over Tamilnadu.
    An eastยญwest shear zone lies roughly along lattitude 12ยฐN at 700 hPa. โ™ฆ

  13. By and large I think that this is one of the worst October we have witnessed. Very sultry right from morning till evening.
    When will Chennai get the much deserved NEM rains?

    • I have to disagree with you.

      Comparing October data between 2005 and 2011, we can see maximum temp in 2011 is 1 C hotter. 2005 started its historic rainfall only from the 10th.

      Rainfall till 9th.
      2011 – 1.6
      2005 – 0 mm

  14. Omg, convectional cloud mass in s.bay has entered into very warm waters .gud chance of clouds building up over tat area..but still its not supportd wit any circulation.anyway it has to be watchd closely.


    Clouds started to come from North East ( our Usual NEM direction), and Cool winds started to come from Northeast side…..

    I hope we can expect temp to come down and Morning TS from tomorrow onwards…..

  16. Isolated morning dumping (pre-monsoon showers) by easterly clouds can be expected from Wednesday..

    Sel, Jon…

    Get up early tmrw to witness the exhausted nimbus over east with Sunrise in the background..a spectacular sight indeed! ๐Ÿ™‚

  17. It was a very heavy spell of rain fall in bangalore that lasted for about 45 mins to an hour, But was very isolated. areas towards the north of bangalore and parts of west bangalore got the heaviest.. whereas bang city only 4mm and AP 0.1mm.. ๐Ÿ™‚ .. cloud miovement was from N – S during this spell of rain and a lot of really loud thunder as well

  18. no change in withdrawal line since 30th sep.. 11 days on i think IMD is just waiting to declare the complete withdrawal from the country in 4 – 5 days time

  19. not too good way up north at international AP as well.. visibility at 500m currently.. there will be some delayed flights today.. clear signs of SW monsoon having exited the country.. drier, colder Northerlies currently prevailing. dew point and temp at 19 degrees

  20. Yesterday was the usual terrible hot and humid Chennai weather which we are famous for – if the humid morning is an indicator, we will have worse weather today. Strangely and ominously, the little breeze which is there seems to be coming from the West.

  21. except for the mornings which are cool and late evenings which give a little rain.. the day from 10 – 3 is really hot in bangalore as well.. temps reaching 30 – 31 C everyday

  22. Definitely wind pattern has changed. North east at this time of the day is definitely a good news. and lots of rain clouds approaching from bay to chennai! ๐Ÿ™‚ ๐Ÿ™‚

  23. Sudharsan,

    The time has come for u to rush to ur terrace along with ur bro to witness the first NEM anvil ๐Ÿ™‚

    Sel, luks like u have missed the first sight of nimbus ๐Ÿ˜ฆ

    • Unfortunately, I won’t be around to witness this spectacular event ๐Ÿ˜ฆ Guess I have to settle for unimpressive Boston snowstorms…..

  24. As i told yesterday, GOOD SIGN FOR NEM….

    Radar animations also confirms it. Clouds Direction changed from east

    Pondi and nagai is going to get the first easterlies rain today. we will get by today evening.

  25. Typical pre-monsoon showers. SWM is still around as upper level shear is continues to be towards the west (look at the direction of anvils).. But, ITCZ is right over Chennai. So, NEM is not far away.

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