275 thoughts on “SWM withdrawal in full swing

  1. Severe TS approaching central TN coast from west..SW of Chenga..

    Talking about early withdrawal of SWM over south is itself very early
    :-D….there will be one more round of weak westerlies this week to giv some rains..this is evident from today’s cloud development during day time and also from TS that is forming now….

  2. @dash ,From the OLR map,v can c the arb sea..they r almost dry without the moisture..so No chance of any more westerlies…but dry west-N.westrly winds may dominate for 4-5 days in peninsular india… . TS chance is high for chennai,Nw and central Tn,banglore,etc….and few evening showers possible for mumbai -goa,konkan coast..

  3. rains in the south near thanjavur and nagapattinam districts currently.. good news for us as this means that we could start having TS soon as well within the next 2 – 3 days..

  4. has anyone noticed the lat and lon displayed in COLA.. for the forecast meteograms.. For Chennai it shows 80.5 E, 13 N.. which is about 100 kms E of besant nagar. For bangalore it is 77.5 E, 13 N.. somewhere completely west of the city – near magadi.. So I wonder how accurate COLA is – especially for chennai as the forecasts it shows is for the sea and no wonder it forecasts rain everyday

    • Monsoon surplus rides on heavy session in east.

      Thiruvananthapuram, Sept. 25:

      The monsoon withdrawal process seems to have slowed after running into a heavy to very heavy rain belt active in the east of the country.

      An India Meteorological Department (IMD) up date on Sunday evening said that the withdrawal line is stuck along Amritsar, Hissar, Ajmer, Deesa, and Porbandar.

      SURPLUS MAINTAINED
      A remnant well-marked low-pressure from an earlier depression located over east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Bihar was masterminding the heavy monsoon, which has maintained the four percent surplus on Sunday.

      The latent monsoon activity has cut down the deficit in east and northeast India to 14 per cent (falling within โ€˜normal’ as per IMD definition).

      Individual deficits in the region are 31 per cent in Assam and Meghalaya, 26 per cent in Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura and 24 per cent in Arunachal Pradesh.

      Towards the south, however, the surplus in peninsular India has been reduced to four per cent mainly from lack of any significant rain activity over the past week or so.

      DRY IN SOUTH
      This is apparently because the โ€˜pulse’ expected to reach the Bay from upstream northwest Pacific/south China Sea itself got delayed after the storminess did not get initiated there in time.

      But, as of now, there are two raging storms, Naset and Haitang, in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea.

      Of this, Nesat, is already a Category-2 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson scale storm intensity, and is expected to hit northeast Philippines as a dangerous Category-4 storm.

      PACIFIC STORMS
      From here, it is shown as entering the South China Sea and headed for a landfall over Taiwan by Friday.

      Before this could happen, the prevailing South China Sea storm, Haitang, would have made a landfall over the Vietnamese coast as a depression.

      These tropical storms are expected to influence the weather in the Bay of Bengal lying next the west and bring rains into the southern peninsula during the first week of October.

      Weathermen are also watching if the storms could drag in the northeast monsoon (or the monsoon in reverse) in case if the southwest monsoon manages to exit the landmass early enough.

      Keywords: weather forecast, monsoon surplus, heavy rains in east

      ๐Ÿ˜€

    • The southwest Monsoon has further withdrawn from entire Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh; remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana and of Delhi and most parts of west Uttar Pradesh and of Rajasthan. The withdrawal line passes through Lat. 29ยฐN / Long. 80ยฐE, Bareilly, Agra, Sawai Madhopur, Udaipur, Deesa, Porbandar, Lat. 21ยฐN / Long. 65ยฐE, and Lat. 21ยฐN / 60ยฐE.
      ๐Ÿ™‚

  5. I think ,v are the only persons (kea blog) to discuss the onset of NEM & withdrawal of swm at full pace…even Imd members wont get involved as v do…..v are the few among 1210193422 pple in india.,be proud to be in kea blog.

    • just now i have seen ur post i m one of the eager person when the nem will set in but its too hot in chennai hope so this will bring some rain as ive seen some cloud coverage in the imd images

  6. Usually the interior areas of TN get heavy rianfall from SWM,but this time it has changed…one can ascertain it from the IMD Table…all interior places except tiruchi running on deficient SWM,speciallly due to a very bad september,for interiors!!

  7. As i mentioned already,

    The 7cm for pondicherry in early sept,was followed up by 22cm for chennai,

    Pondi got 7cm today..remains to see if chennnai can repeat that(with the rain forecast) ….the rain in late sept is normal,this happens year after year…but the interiors should get more rainfall…but this year,the tables have turned!….

    The Aug+Sep rainfall for 2011 for chennai cud even beat(has already beat some) the Oct+Nov for chennai in many NEM years!! ๐Ÿ˜ฎ

  8. Pondi just 70mm away from an beating an all time record of 310mm …chances are dat it might beat this toni8!!….chennai’s All time record of 31cm in sept also in danger,if the last weeks happenings repeats itself!! ….a recordy 2011 ๐Ÿ˜€

      • If a cyclone becomes a category 3 or more,it uses almost all the the favourable conditions which our lows and depressions use.They use less energy and cause no harm.If the cyclone becomes too strong,it absorbs anything around it and sometimes other lows dissipate after interacting.
        Example :Sidr spoilt 2007 NEM.After cyclone Giri,Burma hardly got a low pressure.It got one but that failed to develop and dissipated.After Phet,Oman didn’t get a low.A low formed to the east of Mumbai which was forecast to develop into cyclone Keila,but it dissipated near Oman

      • now, swm ceasing out in full pace. Tat could be favourable for NEM…so at tis point of time, system in e.bay (MOSTLY MOVE in N DIRECTION) will not be gud for us,as it changes the wind pattern,and other factors…..TC giri did the same..so the low near s.east bay or andaman sea wil be well and good, trust worthy ..but at the same time, expecting a low to hit us is too early ..

  9. s.china sea bulletin: Winds over the south China coastal areas will strengthen significantly with squally showers. A northeast monsoon will reach the south China coast over the weekend. Tropical cyclone Haitang will cross central Vietnam and weaken gradually.

  10. Changes outside: hot day,hazy sky,low visiblity, high clouds 4m northwest heading s-s.east.. Changes in bay: mslp reducing in s.east ,s.bay, rain clouds from disorganised system enters bay… Change in blog: kar returns .

  11. Slight change to the weather – hazy-ish morning with a few light clouds. We can hope for a comparatively “pleasant as it gets” 35 today. As usual, I’d love to be proven wrong, but there will be no rain – leave alone morning thundershowers.

    • this indicates the very last stage of SWM..moderate clouds approacing from east in bay..at the same time mini storms descending dowm from N/NW…which will win???

      BBC predicted this..as of now the easterlies will be stopped and will be pushed down..

  12. @jon Oh terrible hot outsite feelz like 40deg cel….

    players of new southwales nd trinidad gng to suffer in sultry nd terrible chennai weather….lol:-D

  13. selvan.. the L of more importance to us is the one currently over thailand and typhoon nesat’s remnants which should mark the start of our NEM

  14. the strength of nesat at 970 hpa currently should be enough to enter the bay at around 996 – 1000 hpa and pull with it the NEM currents… there’s also nalgae coming close after.. it is currently at 994hpa..

  15. should have some showers today evening as the first easterly wave reaches the coast this morning.. moisture build up should be good for some TS over bangalore and chennai.

  16. What a shock to see clouds after ages this morning! Temp has not reduced even a little – if anything its more humid than usual. But atleast where there are clouds, there is some hope for a little respite from the horrible weather Chennai has been having. Maybe we will get a drizzle some time today.

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