151 thoughts on “Dry weather for rest of the month

  1. Going by the records and history, there is a high probability of a bay cyclone in March/April before onset of SWM..if there is a repeat of Laila, then Chennai can expect avg/above avg SWM.. on the other hand, if the system moves away to NE as it always do, then we can expect the worst summer in recent years!

    • this will happen when the easterlies r abt to die and westerlies start to enter thru Indian Ocean below SL..if the easterlies are strong for one last time, then movement vl be towards coast..else towards NE!

  2. Situation is out of control and now the Island is missing in the sat image..,..it is reported that the whole eastern part of lanka got very heavy rain of above 20 cm.,and still rain sweeping lanka. Now am,waiting for fresh report.

  3. At present, nagai and cuddalore coast is facing rough sea conditions….and i could see some clouds with gud water vapour content nearing central Tn coast.

  4. The radar will be back within 2 days. But at this point radar is not needed even for the next 2 months. So radar absence is not going to create any significance.

  5. There is nothing problem or blow to me…,apart from our radar,there are many other things ,,we can go for NE SECTOR WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IN OUR IMD WHERE WE CAN SEE OUR N.TAMIL NADU COAST CLEARLY WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE.

  6. Ooof..tpt at 14c today again!….yesterdays for some reason wasnt available..if it was it hsud have been a 13 or 12!

  7. !!! Quotes from the Tiger !!!

    “I do not know the reason for dropping me. If at all there’s one, then im sure its not for cricketing reasons”

    “If players of my age can play in IPL (Sachin, Dravid, Laxman), y can’t i?”

    “I wanted to play for Kolkata; not be a mentor like Kumble”

    “Please dont feel that SRK betrayed me”

    “Im ready to become the coach of Indian cricket team if approached”

    • he is 1 confused man.

      Doesn’t know what to do next.

      In 1 quote he says he will no longer play cricket and in the next he says if he gets a chance will play IPL.

      He has not yet announced his retirement. i dont know what he is waiting for. Maybe he thinks the IPL governing body will have a change of heart.

  8. The system in bay has organised under low shear for the past 6 hours..The only thing that is preventing it from becoming an organised system is its close proximity with srilankan land.If it could move bit far away it has a potential of better organisation but if it is going to be in same place then interaction with land will prevent its development…Overall the clouds have organised and they are forming near the center showing that the system has intensified in past 6 hours.

      • Seenu

        Why this doubt about Selcyclone.
        He is a 3rd year college student of Veltech Engineering college Avadi.
        Only after his arrival this blog is active. May be his English is poor but his enthusiasm for weather is good and is a nice energetic guy with his own style of hilarious blogging. He is the only one who has not left the blog during non-rainy days. Also always posts something whether weather related or non-weather based topics.

  9. The rains in srilanka are not going to stop for the next two weeks as per NCEP forecasts. The world cup matches scheduled there are now in trouble.

  10. Does my english matters??? Is there any american or english men in our blog??? we all are tamil people,no one born in san francisco, or london or elsewhere….I am just throwing my comments and opinion in a faster way without proper english bcos even I have to spend time in other entertainments ,frnz ,gals, kadalai,lottu losku and social networking websites…….i dnt want to change ,i will dance in my own style to my own beats and drums………. “Kadupaethranga my lord!!!!”

  11. Sel

    You took only the negative point. But didn’t see the good points I mentioned about you. Any way Just I thought of clearing Seenu’s doubt about whether you are he/she.

  12. The winter in chennai will last for about only 10 more days.

    The minimum temperature is set to rise from 20th onwards.

    Only a cyclone or low pressure can bring down the temperature in the coming months till November.

    The sun is now going to have a full blast from the beginning of next month.

    • what is your name mr .selcyclone ? but your are so +ve of feb first/second week rain.. but no rain.. …d u expect “summer cyclone “will hit chennai?

  13. yesterdays impressive system in bay has lost all its convection and it remains very weak..ssmi notes only a wind speed of 15 knots thats pretty dissapointing..

  14. Summer cyclones are really unpredictable…BY going with the history it mostly tracks N-NE direction…but the real thing is that ,the track depends mainly on time weather factors …(situations at tat time during cyclone)

    • yes it depends on all the systems close by the cyclone at that time which influence the stearing winds responsible for the cyclone movement..
      The SST is going to be above normal this summer but it needs to be seen whether the shear is going to be favourable or not..
      The current system has encountered some good amount of shear caused by the movement of the upper level high pressure to the north and also by its close land interaction.
      So shear is very important factor ..High SST do not assure cyclone formation.it is high SST combined with the low shear produces cyclone..IF the shear is going to be favourable this summer combined by above normal SST then definitely a deadly cyclone is possible..That is always the case with LA nina..

  15. The low pressure to north of madagascar has intensified into a depression.
    The system in bay is suffering from moderate to high wind shear

    • It was 20+ minimum today morning…. then how it changed. Why is it that you want to tally with IMD. I think your site cannot be trusted for accuracy

      • Daniel

        Please understand that this is a private weather station. The sophisticated weather instruments IMD uses for weather observations and the trained and qualified technicians&scientists who work full time on weather in IMD, cannot be matched by a individual who is having a weather station out of his love for weather and running it single handedly.

        So it is very correct of KEA to update his records based on observations by IMD. The main objective is to get accurate recordings.
        Also the KEA weather station and IMD Chennai are hardly a km apart.
        So updating the records based on IMDCHENNAI is the most sensible thing to do so as to eliminate errors which are very common in weather recordings.

  16. Omg…tpt at 13c today!….vellore is running in a cold wave with 5 degress below normal at 14..as IMD report says Cold wave in rayalaseema(vellore)….bamgalore,hassan 16 and 15!…………n slowly coimbatore rising ..it is already at 34c….incredible warmer than vellore! ! …oof!

  17. Vathalagundu??…anyways, adilabad is a place in AP wer it is verry cold in winters n extreely hot in summers….in TN its different…while tirupattur records the coldest winter temps…thala veyyilloor endru peyar konda vellore records the hottest summer temps…note that the min temps will also be like 29c,30c….it seems its worse in areas like walahjapet and gudiyattam 😀

  18. KN and KR are just 2 amazing kids.
    I think no one in this blog possess as much knowledge about the weather in south India especially TN as these two.

    Both of you keep up your war on weathers. Very interesting to read the weather data presented in such a enjoyable manner.

    As Selcyclone has rightly said ‘rain or shine’ your batterings will never stop. But both of you post valuable data painstakingly collected which will be of use to others to know about the weather in our state and surroundings.

    Just carry on your good work.

  19. Signs of a heat wave nearing….today was very hot ere…in the next 3-4 days i think max temps mi8 shoot u to 37-38-39-40 in the regions of coimbatore,vellore,salem,tpt….entire rayalaseema n Ni ktaka….while the mysore plateau mi8 shoot up to 34-35-36-37 degress

  20. The system in south bay is moving slowly in a south-south east direction..The shear remains very high but there seems to be slightly favourable shear nearby ..its moving in an unusual direction and would continue to move close to equator..

  21. @super sai Vathalagundu is the foot hill town for kodaikanal lik mettupalayam (for ooty),pollachi(for valparai),kushal nagara(for coorg),Bodi(for munnar) and adivaaram(for wayanad)…

    all the foot hill towns of western ghats even if they are in the rain shadow side are known for their pleasant weather…

    I think you are confused with other minor foot hill towns that are not part of western ghats known for their highly disastrous and unfortunate climate.. u may think of tirupattur(for yelagiri),tirupati(for tirumala),salem(for yercaud) as some examples

  22. The system in bay is showing some dense convection and is slowly moving towards a slightly favourable condition nearby with low shear and conductive SST.

  23. Vino sir: i dont know why the system in bay is tracking south -s.east direction? ….its clearly indicating that it will move slowly in more south and moderate s.e direction..

  24. Heavy cloud activity in s.bay..its showing the sign of development .. Eventhough it wont posses any threat for Tn at this moment,its under close watch.

  25. A fresh easterly wave with its foot print affecting the whole of east india i.e. from northeast to kanyakumari is going to impact from 20th feb. So the chances of rain are still there. This wave will interact with a concurrent western disturbance over central and NE india. So the entire eastern India is going to get some wet weather.

    source. Business line

  26. You are right frnd…i too gone through some weather forecast,even they are coinciding with us…wats ur profession? Wat is ur name? Why you are blogging as – ??? I fun

  27. Sel,

    The one who posted about the new easterly wave is not me..its a different ‘dash’.. my posts are the twitter(first one) and the reply to u at 12:31 pm (no need to watch..1%)

  28. S.bay and s.central bay is the favourite spot for cyclone in april..There is Good Chance for deadly cyclone in april but last week of march cant be ruled out…..everyone know ,may and november are the favourable months for the cyclonic activity in bay.

  29. The imd is only telling about the weak easterly wave which is going to impact south tn.
    It still has not given any details about the 20 Feb easterly wave which is forecasted both by Eurepean weather agency and NCEP. Any way the amplitude and coverage is going to be large for this 20th feb wave.

  30. Undoubtedly coimbatore and tirupattur are the most pleasant in TN plains for weather….but tpt makes the cut with that 100cm rain average! …

  31. “of western ghats known for their highly disastrous and unfortunate climate.. u may think of tirupattur(for yelagiri)”

    If a native tptian hears this he wud be rofling….especially if he hears the one who sed is a vellorian/ranipetian 😛 …….one thing ppl in tpt love is the super weather it has…n i think u know dat!!

    • KN, where r u? post a reply/counter-attack..let the war btw the two amazing kids (as said by guna) begin!!!

      KN says- “other minor foot hill towns that are not part of western ghats known for their highly disastrous and unfortunate climate.. u may think of tirupattur(for yelagiri),tirupati(for tirumala),salem(for yercaud) as some examples”

      KR says- “Tirupattur has super weather”

  32. Today was infact verry cold ere only!……though the temp says 19….my home not surrounded by much buildings and open grounds around ti went 2-3 degress lesser!

  33. I think KEA has to open a new topic now.

    He would’ve never imagined the current topic will receive such a huge number of posts . This only shows the increasing popularity of our blog and the interest shown by our regular bloggers even in non-rainy days.

  34. @ -,

    i have the complete averages of all these towns ….it is for u to decide how u describe it!

    Tirupattur
    ————

    Tpt – Max-min(average)-

    Jan – 29.5/17.3
    Feb – 32.5/17.5
    March – 35.4/19.6
    April – 36.5/23.1
    May – 36.5 /24.1
    June – 34.9/23.7
    July – 32.9/23.0
    August – 33.4/22.9
    September – 32.9/22.3
    October – 30.6/21.5
    November – 28.9/19.4
    December – 28.4/17.6

    Max Avg – 32.7
    Min Avg – 21
    Avg – 26.85

  35. Coimbatore
    —–———–

    Jan – 30.0/19.0
    Feb – 32.2/20.1
    Mar – 34.9/22.2
    Apr – 35.4/23.6
    May – 33.4/23.4
    June – 30.9/22.4
    Jul – 29.6/21.8
    Aug – 30.3/22.0
    Sep – 31.2/22.0
    Oct – 30.8/22.0
    Nov – 29.7/21.0
    Dec – 28.9/19.7

    Max avg – 31.5
    Min avg – 21.6
    Average – 26.55

  36. Salem
    ——-

    Jan – 31.8/19.5
    Feb – 34.4/21.0
    Mar – 36.9/23.2
    Apr – 37.9/25.6
    May – 37.5/25.3
    Jun – 35.3/24.5
    Jul – 34.2/23.9
    Aug – 33.7/23.5
    Sep – 33.7/23.3
    Oct – 32.5/22.9
    Nov – 31.3/21.7
    Dec – 30.6/20.1

    Max avg – 34.15
    Min Avg – 22.88
    Avg – 28.51

  37. just read this

    UNITED NATIONS: Over a quarter of a million people were killed by disasters worldwide last year, making 2010 one of the deadliest years in more than a generation, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has said.

    Addressing an informal thematic debate in the UN General Assembly on disaster risk reduction, Ban warned that natural disasters could make 2011 as costly as 2010, saying “we have already seen grievous disasters in Australia and Brazil”.

    With earthquakes, heat waves, floods and snowstorms affecting 208 million people, killing more than 250,000, and costing $110 billion in losses last year alone, the 192-member General Assembly Wednesday debated on mitigation steps such as building safer schools, hospitals and cities to reduce the terrible toll, Xinhua reported.

    In his speech at the open debate, Ban recited the litany of natural disasters of the past year — earthquakes in Haiti, Chile and China, floods in Pakistan and Europe, wildfires in Russia and the US, and cyclones and tropical storms in Asia.

    “Barely a day went by without lives devastated, homes demolished, people displaced, and carefully cultivated hopes destroyed,” he said. “It was one of the deadliest years in more than a generation.”

    “Children are among the most vulnerable,” he said.

    “Thousands died last year as earthquake, flood or hurricane reduced their schools to rubble. These deaths could have been prevented.

    “Lives can be saved by advance planning — and by building schools, homes, hospitals, communities and cities to withstand hazards. Such measures to reduce risk will grow ever more important as our climate changes and extreme events become more frequent and intense.”

  38. Veyyillor 😛
    ————–

    Jan – 29.5/18.9
    Feb – 31.8/20
    Mar – 34.5/21.9
    Apr – 36.8/25.1
    May – 38.2/26.2
    Jun – 36.9/25.9
    Jul – 35.3/25.1
    Aug – 34.6/24.5
    Sep – 34.1/24.1
    Oct- 32.1/23.1
    Nov – 29.9/21.6
    Dec – 28.6/19.9

    Max avg – 33.53
    Min avg – 23.03
    Avg – 28.28

  39. Tiruapttur’s worst month in min temp deparment is may with 24.1c …..chennai’s october min is 24.3c … How wud ppl in chennai describe their oct nights?

  40. Btw kochi 8cm…chmrajnagar ..one hell of a palce at 7c! …new delhi is at 9c!…bangalore 14,hassan 16!…a bit warmer then NW-TN

  41. @ -,

    I think u come to know from the averages that tirupattur has a cbt like weather…..KN will continue tarnishing Tpt’s image as he is from ranipet…he cant digest abt its weather ..especially on the minimum side……he will continue giving wrong infos…wen i first told him that tpt will be too cold n winters…he sed it it will never fall below 20c(Now u see its at 12 😀 ) …..wen i sed it gets good rainfall close to 100cm …he sed it is the driest region in TN with 50cm avg(jus now he is realising ranipet mi8 take that position :P) …n wen i sed april,may ni8 will be quite pleasant der in tpt…he sed it is similar to *Vellore* 😮 …. tpt wiht 23 n 24 with 15cm rainfall in summers….wat more u can ask for a place in TN plains???!!

  42. I am giving the clue myself Seenu.

    Selcyclone is absent for a while now. So you can now guess one of the ‘-‘.

    Also our regular bloggers like Bhaskaran sir ,kea, ss,guna and KN are most likely to be the other ‘-‘.

    I am ending my posts in ‘-‘ name so one will reduce from now on.

  43. Todays rainfall data
    Kochi airport records a heavy rainfall of 8 Centimetres.
    Alapuzha and Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt) 4 each, Piravom (Ernakulam dt) 3 and Vaikom (Kottayam dt) 2.

    Today is a day of dashes. By the way one of the dashes was my student.

    Vinodh,Selcyclone and other experts please give me your views on the potential for rainfall from the E.wave which many forecasters say will affect our eastern coast from 20th.

  44. By looking at the present sat images ,i could remember that golden days ..when i was studying 9th standard,this(4 cyclones ) had happened,and at tat time i came to conclusion that ocean is full of cyclones and sharks. So funny to realize those misunderstandings.unfortunately , now the Tc bingiza is more or less in same position and the disturbance Nw of aus also in tat position,too intensifying i thnk things happening as tat of image…. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/imagerecords/3000/3206/FourCyclones.A2003042.jpg

    • Dear Sel

      good improvement. But if you continue like this(unending research on weather) I think you will be back to the days of your 9th std. Just relax a while and have a look on other things. you’re now addicted to weather and need a good de-addiction therapy.

      B.S. Sel will dismiss this in his own style.

      • i still remember this 4 cyclones..In CNN weather they had a special coverage about these 4 cyclones and there was another one near the micronesia islands at the same time..There are 5 storms at the same time..4 in indian and 1 in south pacific..i forgot the names of these storms.

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