192 thoughts on “A few showers possible this week

  1. KEA.

    Imd chennai has very clearly mentioned about heavy rainfall from tomorrow. this has been supported by many models as well as satellite picture. Moreover today is very hot and sunny also favours heavy rainfall to commence.

    what would be your forecast. In fact yeserday places beyond poonamalle up to kanchi received very heavy rains ranging from 2 centimeters to 6 centimeters.

    ss.

  2. We are near to rain…..Coastal Tn going to get lashed by very heavy rain for next 3 to 4 days…main focus will be on central coast…if it advances to system , N.TN will get lashed….i think it will be just an easterlies ..but we have to wait till 8.pm,to say whether it wil be a system or just an easterlies..

  3. , it will consolidate or scatter within some hours tats why i flashed tat deadline…i wil go with this chance ratio 60:40 respectively.

  4. It wil track in Nw direction,from now on….the place which is going to get maximum rain wil fall in central TN region…at the same time, chennai cant be ruled out.

  5. Ra?…wats ur name? I cant get you…..any way,tat not raining clouds,they are outside fringes of the system..tat was even visible for us..

  6. Western pacific is active again…..one system is approaching s.china sea, it is far from us but it wil impact us by its remnants.

  7. Western pacific is active again…..one system is approaching s.china sea, it is far from us but it wil impact us by its remnants by next week

  8. KEA.

    For more than 12 hours the cloud mass is still perisist over south central bay with in 85 longtitude and of course slightly on a lower latitude around 9 to 11 north. but still hopes are high for its development.

    in fact IMD Delhi had included coastal tamil nadu in heavy rains bracket from tomorrow.

    SS.

  9. radar is picking up blue, yellow and redlines 50 kms east and north east of chennai.

    so may be within 3 hours this would also cover chennai. around 11 PM there may be change of weather.

    ss.

  10. Kea weather will realise our prediction when it rain in chennai…surely tis rain will make chennai up’s and down..

  11. selcyclone,i am saying that condition are not very favourable for it to develop..There are some circulation but that is not well marked one..The system mild circulation is in low latitude below 7N.The clouds that are close to north TN is actually a trough associated with the system..The actual circulation is southwards around 7N latitude.It seems like that it will interact with srilanka but TN will be getting some very heavy downpours from it..The chance of an organised system is less..

  12. selcyclone,yes the clouds that gave us rain yesterday is cumulonimbus..There is no need to even see the clouds whenever the droplets are huge it is only cumulonimbus..100 percent..no clouds other than this can produce such big droplets..

  13. selcyclone,not to mention the top of cloud ..cumulus congestus would be dark too..one good way to distinguish cumulonimbus and cumulus congestus ie cumulus congestus would have cauliflower shaped top but cumulonimbus would have pretty shapeless top..

  14. movement of cloud in satellite dont always signify the movement of system..sometimes the clouds would have moved northward due to increased divergence..

  15. You mentioned the word “optimistic” ,so i took for granted,tat conditions are favourable …i still have a hope.,,i want it to be anything ,let it be Lp or just a rain clouds from easterlies but i need a heavy rain.

  16. Ya..Those clouds will give rain in late evening during summer ,when temperature exceeds…big droplets of rain wil be caused due to”veppa salanam”..the very same clouds will do the role there too

  17. yup only when the temp increases you would see cumulonimbus even cumulus clouds too..The increase in temperature causes air to rise to greater heights which causes these hot towers since the air rises to greater heights the more time for the water droplets to come down to earth which will increase the size of droplets..Apart from tha time it takes lot of pressure to push the water droplets down on an warm and humid day due to rising air which holds droplets in air for few more time and increases its size..
    sometimes the rising air completely fails which happens sometimes and it causes cloud burst or sometimes even microburst producing severe gales.

  18. We will start to get rain from evening or by night….wet days will prevail for next 3 to 4 days…next week we will have firm system,it’s confirmed by seeing s.china sea..

  19. The cold weather is gone now. So with the rise in temperature definitely some heavy rains are going to occur for sure.

    No water shortage for the next one year. The city reservoirs are for the first time storing water to the maximum capacity in past 20 years. Usually they don’t store to the full level for reasons of safety. But this year they are doing it. If it rains heavily surplus will flood cooum and adyar rivers.

    Chennai open semifinals and final will get affected at least to some extent by this rains. The courts have good drainage facilities. But still some delay can be caused by dampness.

  20. KEA.

    As usual showers are concentrating in Kalpakkam area for more than half an hour. struggling to move north. we could feel north easterly winds but satellite picture not all that encouraging as lot of cloud mass moving away from tn coast to open bay of bengal.

    ss.

  21. Heavy rains in kalpakkam belt as thick red lines in radar. in fact some pockets of south east about 100 KMS are also receiving rains. will chennai get it soon ??

    ss.

  22. The clouds are indeed moving away from us as mentioned by Mr. Suresh to the east-northeast towards andaman islands. Only the imd morning report will give us some info on what is happening.

  23. Ssuresh..: some clouds are moving away from us…bcos of divergence wind shear is towards North and North east… This is unfair for us.

  24. ss and other experts

    will these clouds form in to a deep depression or cyclone?
    cos some one said tat cyclone has formed about 1600 km(he read it in news paper it seems) is tat true?

  25. Mr. Guna & Selcyclone.

    normally we can not conclude immediately going by cloud movements. It would always tend to move bit erratic. But going by the wind direction and radar readings, still some useful showers are not ruled out. But no way a depression is likely in another 24 hours.

    ss.

  26. A very windy day. definitely some disturbance is present in the atmosphere and if it turns into a low and gives us rains it will be a great start for this year.

    From years of water scarcity Chennai is now becoming a water self sufficient city.
    With more sea water desalination plants and rainwater harvesting we can be self-sufficient on water front and need not rely on Krishna water.

    By the way we pay a huge amount to Andhra every year for the Krishna water supply. Don’t know the exact amount but heard that a big amount is paid.

  27. Radar spotted some blue dots east of chennai,…we can get some red spots by night and it wil start our rainy days.

  28. Good cloud formation over S.bay…by looking at the sat picture,its deadly.so Lanka will be covered by night …it will organise as the time passes…

  29. Comorin area and Mid Equatorial Indian Ocean is brewing good clouds. Further progress to be seen. But these won’t make into a depression or upwards.

  30. The clouds seem dispersed all of a sudden. Also the winds which were blowing hard throughout the day have stopped now.
    Is the anticyclone preventing the easterly wave’s cloud formation.

    Vinodh can you please explain

  31. Chennai: It will be very hard to predict rain for chennai,in extended monsoon as tis is unusual and rare.,..from tmrw ,we can expect rain for sure.,and the clouds above lanka will move towards N.TN ,according to current wind shear and divergence pattern….next week,there will be system for sure and tis week it will be just an easterlies

  32. guna,winds will be always more during daytime due to rising of air which disrupts the wind flow and causes gust..There is an high pressure located over central AP and its outer edge extending few km from center that is preventing the rain to move furthur westward..

  33. The shear is very high in most part of bay except forsome parts in south bay which is pretty close to circulation center but it is not convincing..

  34. It is really a big surprise yesterday with in 12 hours cuddalore port town has recorded nearly 10 centimeters of rain and this rains were not all that widespread. Pondy has recorded only one centimeter.

    When we see the latest bay of bengal satellite picture, it is highly encouraging for chennai also.

    interested readers can give their opinion on this.

    chennai morning is continue to be warm signifying north easterly winds still prevail over the city.

    ss.

  35. The latest satellite pictures are looking awesome. But nothing is spotted in the radar.

    May be by evening we may see some thundershowers if the cloudmass approaches coastal Tn.

  36. Showers are predicted throughout this week by ACCUWEATHER. But we are getting only occasional drizzles. The sat images look pretty every time we look at them.
    But only if they drift in a bit more west we may get some meaningful rains.

    Imd forecasts fairly widespread rains. By night we may get some showers if their forecasts are correct.

  37. @ selcyclone

    we are not having convergence over chennai. we are having divergence which is not favourable. positive values in this chart is covergence and negative values are divergence.

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