130 thoughts on “Steady drizzles started

  1. will it follow suit of Jel ?? possibilities of gaining strength and moving north is highly on the cards by midnight to tomorrow early morning. Some times system slows down a bit, but it does not mean it would die down.

    sea surface temperatures and shear values are quite favourable.

    it has to pass the Palk strait basin and afterwards its strength could be quite fast. normally gulf of mannar to park strait there could be sluggishness in movement/strengthning.

    ss.

  2. Constant light rain for almost an hour now here in purasawalkam!!
    Nd cuddalore becomes the first town on the east coast to cross the 1000mm mark, it is at 1020mm now!!

  3. definitely heavier than 4.2mm of rianfall in tbm….i din check my gauge yet…but easily over 1cm…some spells in btw was heavy

  4. Friends I am just leaving for Chennai – Rain lashed colombo last two hours like anything, hope my chennai also getting something like this. See you all tomorrow

  5. This will further scale up the heavy to very heavy rainfall over entire Tamil Nadu coast for another week with the rainiest spots shifting between the South-East Tamil Nadu coast and Chennai and its neighbourhood.

  6. Let it rain we need rain and not ODI it should rain like what we are experiencing in Colombo, thrashing absolutely no visibility

  7. Yes, BCCI has only commerial interesst, this is not the first time they are taking the spectators for granted and the rules does not permit them to refund the money Public should boycott best way to teach them, but….

  8. Nice to see IMd is back. and radar alsoupdating.

    latest radar and satellite both favours good showers for chennai.

    shall get back after 2 hours.

    ss.

  9. Guna understand chennai had some good rains couple of days back, becoz I was away hence i do not want to telll rain god that I am back 2mrow

  10. No thunderstorms yet in center but system showing good outflow which is indicated by cirriform clouds along the central Tn and central AP.SSt seems to be the problem there but not sure.It has to gain some laitude for some thunderstorm to develop in the center.Unless clouds going to develop over center there is going to be no decrease in pressure or increase in winds.

  11. Bhaskaran, then how come Colombo getting rains when you’re there.

    I think may be the Colombo rain god has a liking for you.

    As per IMD evening report the low pressure area is likely to intensify within the next 24 hours.

    Let’s wait and see.

  12. For my untrained eyes, the system’s rain bearing capacity has been continously on the wane since morning. The limited clouds are also moving north – over the sea.

    The GFS GMT 06 update (released at 04.30 PM today). has dramatically reduced the rain forecasts for TN coast.

    So …better to stick with Ehsan’s forecasts?

  13. IMD states that

    Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over and Rayalaseema during next 24 hours and increase thereafter.
    ♦ Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over Orissa on 5th and increase thereafter.

    So the system is going to move away from Chennai by tomorrow evening and beginning to influence Orissa coast.

    @Vinod

    “No office ,rainy weather and a low pressure in the bay near the TN coast.”

    I think today is a perfect day for a weather lover and amateur meteorologist like you (though not a professional you still possess super knowledge like a pro).

    Now one doubt
    If it skirts the TN coast as predicted by tomorrow evening, is there any chance of rains for us when it is near Orissa.

  14. guna,if it skirts TN coast we will have heavy rains .The extent of heavy rains depends on the level the system intesnification..The rain should clear by tuesday …
    i have no office in weekends 🙂

  15. I don’t think we going to have anything further on this system, from insat pic of 1200 UTC, it is already above Chennai!

  16. @Dhinakar – I don’t think the system is moved above Chennai – At 13.00 GMT, the location of the system is 9.8N 82.5E which is well below Chennai.

  17. Suresh, Vinod, Kea, Dhinakar … Pl see the satellite image captured by NASA MODIS.. at 8:50 UTC time…. I’m confused now where the system is currently !!

  18. Ok.. when seen in true colour… it shows that system already moved ahead of chennai at 2:30 pm.. So, no more rains … Tomorrow we can see a sunny sunday !!

  19. THANKS JON………

    ONCE AGAIN A BIG DISAPPOINTMENT FOR CHENNAI ……..

    STILL 25 DAYS REMAINING IN THIS MONTH, I HOPE WE WILL GET A BIG SYSTEM….WHICH FULFILLS US……

    LETS ALL HOPE………..

  20. it is now 9.8 & 82.5 unless it moves further north, no chance of any strength or rains to chennai.

    it has to cross the palk strait which is placed around 10 north but chances are quite high.

    The satellite picture taken at 5.30 PM ( as referred by some) has two broken cloud mass one still south east of chennai and the other slightly north est of chennai and that is why radar picks up showers till kavali.

    Latest IMD report says chances of becoming a depression soon. next 12 hours very crucial.

    ss.

  21. system is still there in srilanka.Dont get misleaded by the clouds movement.The circulation center will be clearly visible in microwave imagery only.Presenlty the center of system is surrounded by only low clouds so it wont be visible in satellite.

  22. mr. vinodh.

    i am absolutely in liine with your thought. the barometr levels are dropping and every possibility it would gather strength but it has move above 10 north.

    it may not be always correct to predict based on cloud cover and at any time it will be regrouped once llcc is properly set.

    but next 12 to 18 hours very vital.

    ss.

  23. I beleive vinodh’s comment… But Vinodh, why such changes within 4 – 5 hours.. Does this mean this is a weak one like Jal 🙂 ?

  24. The JTWC report at 23.00 hrs will give us a clear view about the systems current position and future course.

    It’s very peculiar to depend on a US military site for knowing about a system very close to India. The IMD with its huge infrastructure and personnel provides only a text book like forecast for all systems, that too based on obsolete data. Though they may not possess the sophisticated instruments like JTWC, they are having ground based weather observatories and hence should be in a better position to predict about the system.

    But sadly that is not the case and we’re dependent on foreign forecasters to know about uptodate info on any storms in Indian waters. Hope things may change in the future at least.

  25. Endhiran

    You’re smarter than humans. Use your weather sensor to find out exactly the rain amount for tomorrow. At least your prediction may work correct 😀

  26. must a been at least 3 cm in adyar.
    Continuous intermittent drizzle from 3 along with drizzle for short while before that. Also between 5-5:15 it rained heavily.

  27. WU says 100 % chance of rain for tomorrow (this is something new 100 %)

    Sunday – 65 mm
    Sunday night – 26 mm

    this agrees with my forecast regarding the rain period. The total amount I am not sure. But if this actually happens it will be great

  28. No like what about the 15 minute period of heavy rain ? Might have brought 1cm in itself …
    Flabbergasted at what LOL?

  29. Most of them in the blog are thoroughly mistaken by the satellite picture. Still the system is very much active of course on a low key. There are 2 important asepcts on which it is not gearing up further. There is a mountain hindering its development which is hardly100 KMS from sea in srilanka and that is why i have been telling that it has to cross palk strait latitude or it might slowly shift to further east and then move north.

    between 8 and 8.30 kodambakkam area received good drizzling contineously and it was some what strong compared to 3 to 6 Pm drizzling.

    Now machilipatnam radar picks up showers in nellore town and so north and north east of chennai also coverd under showery belt. let us ascertain the correct position only by tomorrow morning, and in all probability it could be a depression just north est of nagai by tomorrow morning.

    ss.

  30. in any case there may not be flood like rain. so long you travel in a closed vehicle no issue. tomorrow we can expect consistent showers.

    ss.

  31. @ ssuresh & Vinodh: I too was fooled by the big cloud mass as I could not locate the LLCC near Ceylon! May be due to its low profile! Now tracked it on careful scrutiny.

  32. Now in kodambakkam for the past 10 minutes slight increase in intensity of drizzling and radar also reflected that by blue box covering just west of DWR and north of mount. Radar is cent percent OK.

    Unless the core disturbance in bay exists, there may not be any drizzling and more over the calmness of the atmosphere tends to indicate a drop in barometer pressure.

    in all probability it is slowly developing in to a depression.

    ss.

  33. How equal orathanadu and tirupattur and orathanadu and thanjavur are in terms of rainfall… we should appreciate the profound knowledge of some members in this blog

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