212 thoughts on “Birth of new bay system

  1. I hope my weather station desktop can see of this system. It has some power issue probably due to overheating.

    I can’t do anything on it because it restarts on it’s own. I will just leave the weather software to run.

  2. KEA.

    can you give at least 6 hours rest to your system. of course you have to keep track of recording date. that is impt. otherthan that if possible, you can shut the sysem between 11 Pm & 6 AM.

    ss.

  3. KEA.

    It looks like the sysem is moving and developing quick. I think by sunday morning it would be impacting north tamil nadu coast including chennai. we can ascertain by tomorrow morning about its movement, strength etc. this is not going to be JAL, as we could see all along the temperatures are quite high at 28.5 up to nellore coast.

    ss.

  4. Kea
    You are right..next 1 week has seen most forecasts showing +ves for Chennai-bbc,accuweather,WU….so need to keep the site going..
    Can Hardware experts guide Kea?

  5. suresh,

    no rest for my desktop. I tried to give it some rest yesterday, but it refused to start up again. It said some power voltage problem or overheating. Turning it off is a risk. It might not turn back on.

  6. if this site is not functioning, i loose so many vital informations from you & others. Since it has become a habit to see and post remarks in this blog, kindly ensure not much disturbance to the system. Hope your software experts would rise up to the occasion and put your system back on trace. next few days are very crucial on the weather front.

    let us hope there may not be breakdowns in your server.

    ss.

  7. Hi Kea,
    What is the problem with the server, if you give somebackground I will check with my office and check if we can do some quick restore..

  8. kea.

    impending system in bay, but still easterly wave is also dominating. i could see a good cloud cover just 300 KMS east and south east of chennai. we might a shower or two today or tomorrow either later evening or early morning.

    ss.

  9. I think the problem with the system is wear and tear of 24 X 7 usage. In the same computer, Windows refused to start 2 days before Laila. It was repaired, I think the hard disk got corrupted due to overheating.
    The problem is back again, atleast its not dead yet. I hope it can last thru this system.

    Dont worry Keaweather is not going anywhere. If this desktop dies, it will be replaced ASAP.

  10. @ Vinodh: Journey was treacherous from Leh to Palam. Palam, Delhi to yelahanka, Bangalore was fine from Blr to MAA, I came by IA! . Sorry it is Il-76MD not Il 72. That was a typo error.

    It seems our discussion on the bay system taking shape!

    As the system developed on such a low latitude of 2 deg North, we have to carefully watch the system. As such developments on low latitudes this part of the world is rare and mostly fierce. Remember 1964 Danushkodi cyclone!

  11. KEA.

    The latest satellite picture gives lot of encouragement. Though the system is still far away from coast, the cloud cover is so huge and i think by evening or by tomorrow morning we will get overcast skies with occasional drizzles.

    still the easterly wave is also quite active and we may have a shower or two before evening.

    ss.

  12. Richy, I just gave my guess. Most of us have been blogging in this site since the onset of NEM during last week of October. But none of the cyclone, or Low Pressure system gave the much needed rains to Chennai.

    so the birth of yet another new system in Bay hardly makes any difference. It will change the direction and batter Cuddalore, Pondy and delta districts which are already marooned in floods.

  13. KEA.

    Already open sea areas east of karaikal up to cuddalore total rain bearing clouds seen. once again a big battering for delta districts from today night.

    probably chennai also experience showers soon due to easterly wave followed by a depression.

    ss.

  14. I expect this system to move north. My basic estimate if from the fact that north srilanka, south coastal TN and south interior TN have been receiving so much rain in the last 3 weeks. So not sure whether any ridge would start moving in from west over these areas. But incase it moves north there is always threat that it would totally bypass TN and target andhra and orrisa.

  15. it is too early to predict which way it moves and finally cross. it is just born and let us wait at least another 24 hours. now it is situated roughly 900 KMS south east of pamban and it has to pass through several stages before it has to set ground for its travel. but the sea conditions are totlaly favourable for rapid devlopment. now let us keep track of existing easterly wave which is still active in tamil nadu coast.

    ss.

  16. Kea,

    Yea it is a task to keep the Weather Station online 24×7. At important moments there Rain Gauge gets clogged due to pigeon dropping etc. I have a dedicated PC for my Weather Station and at times the Weatherlink software hangs, but overall works smoothly.

  17. See looks like the verdict is already out. Chennai will only get light rains. A drizzle for half an hour or so probably.

    Nice comedy!

    So why do we need to really care about a birth of a system in bay when it is half dead already?

  18. arabian sea now developed and also started move towards indian mainland.

    is any one predict abouts its possible land fall in gujarat or weaken before it cross land.

    the sea surface temperature above goa may not be a favourable indicator for further devlopment.

    it might die down after moving little bit north.

    ss.

  19. @ssuresh,

    Arabian Sea Low Pressure has not started moving towards India. System is expected to remain more or less in the same area or track sluggishly some what northerly for the next four days or so.

  20. @Dhinakar- the dhanushkodi article is a good one.I remember having been there a few years back..you can still see the town submerged with the sea sand.

  21. DEAR MALA please watch bbc map the system will not cross indian coast..because some come western to eastern side …

  22. DEAR MALA please watch bbc map the system will not cross indian coast..because some.i.e winds disturbance…. it occur rarely …come western to eastern side …

  23. Mr. Riaz.

    is it raining at Kumbakonam?? pl. report the latest status.

    Kea : The latest radar picks up drizzles 30 KMS east of chennai. vast cloud cover is stretching from karikal to cuddalore in open sea. slowly spread towards north west. probably night we will have occasional showers.

    ss.

  24. active members. i dont knw abt this depression but most probably ,v can xpect cyclone keila before dec 10…..see thishttp://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/img/144hgfs_925wind.gif

  25. KEA.

    I am very optimistic. I feel this december would be a record rainfall more than 26 centimeters in 24 hours. let us see. going by the strength and also originating from extreme south bay, it can bring much heavy and widespread rains across coast right from pamban to chennai and finally may cross near nellore as a sever cyclone in fag end of crossing. It would certainly take full 7 days from today. I anticipate it would dissipiate toally by10th of december.

    You can take 27 centimeters from this system.
    ss.

    SS.

  26. Mr.Suresh,
    Its not raining but its been drizzling very light in intensity for the past one hr. But now the sky has gone much more darker maybe expecting heavy rain in a couple of hrs.time if my predictions are right… Its very calm out here now…

  27. The Stanley reservoir, the lifeline of the Cauvery delta, touched the full reservoir level (FRL) of 120 feet on Thursday evening [5-15 p.m.] for the 37th time in its 76-year history.

    The previous occasion when the dam reached FRL was on July 20, 2007. The dam touching FRL in the month of December is a rarity. Till now, this has happened twice – in 1972 and 1997.

  28. i agree with mr guru….it will be very less rain only u go thru bbc map … and data particularly wind direction…and cloud movement..

  29. 94B.INVEST is how this system is currently tracked. It is still far too much distance from coast and it is still too early to predict. But we should monitor before this system consolidates is the cloud mass that is now formed due to the easterly wave which should fetch chennai some decent trains tonight and tomm. Already the weather has dramatically changed in the last 1 – 1.5 hrs, from bright and sunny to cloudy and overcast now – @ Adyar.

    Experts – your comments please.

  30. Some extra-ordinary predictions are happening by looking at the satellite images.
    25 cms, 27 cms etc etc. Let us note be cheated once again.

  31. sad news……some weather experts revealing westerlies may affect our monsoon..if this happen, “westerlies” steers the current low pressure system in arabian sea and make them to cyclone status and hit mumbai\gujarat coast.. and in bayof bengal, our future systems may track north and north east direction……. totally disappointing.

  32. VIJAYANAND: i too agree,but rain may lash us 4m tonight and tis system will make a move towards AP\orissa coast from tmrw aftrnoon…..but we will get tat huge amount ,wat we r xpecting….

  33. now the system lies at about 5.6 north 88.6 east. north westerly movement.

    if it maintains same trend either it would cross between pamban and cudalore.

    crossing near cuddalore in cyclone strength, heavy rains for chennai. places beyond karaikal a few showers for chennai.

    but too early to say.

    ss.

  34. guru just wait and see the radar current radar 2:45pm please watch the depression is hit chennai and get single day rain is 400mm

  35. IMD Delhi has notified about the possible occurrence of low pressure area over south west bay of bengal in another 48 hours. i think this is the same system as already notified by JTWC south of srilanka which is at present located at 5.6 & 88.6

    ss.

  36. @Kea – I didn’t enter the prediction game during JAL, but let me do it this time (If it can make the current experience better than JAL, LOL). My prediction is 100 mm

  37. kea………..,wat ?until next friday noon ah?……my mind tempting me to say > 500mm but our blog members will start to throw stone at me,so i will stick to 300-400mm

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