96 thoughts on “Good rains forecasted from Thursday night

    1990 97 77
    1991 79 75
    1992 73 75
    1993 90 104
    1994 118 115
    1995 53 44
    1996 126 113
    1997 157 144
    1998 72 80
    1999 53 52
    2000 40 50
    2001 108 97
    2002 99 83
    2003 31 38
    2004 57 62
    2005 211 186
    2006 89 96

  2. chennai is absolutely clear weather though some high clouds in the east.

    we hope rains over central coastal tamil nadu might turn north.

    radar not encouraging but satellite picture is encouraging.


  3. The monsoon trough has spawned a low pressure in north indian ocean and south indian ocean.one in south indian ocean will slowly organise into a cyclone.it will remain out in sea but still move closer to mauritius.

  4. sujitha,chennai will get good rains in coming days .chennai is mainly dry this year because the ridge has sinked southward and is now over central AP and adjoining areas this is preventing the system to spread rains furthur north but now ridge is showing weakening so the rains will push north in coming days.

  5. hi kea people and hi vinod how r u all?talking to u after many days.vijayawada very dry these days since cyclone jal and i think this dryness here is due to high pressure ridge exactly in the central ap where vjwada is located and vinod what abt wind shear?its ultimately low along and off andhra coast and decreasing in central ap coast.is there a chance of potential low pressure development?also sea surface temperature is about 30 degrees off AP coast.in andhra we donno when it rains.we didnt expect flooding like 1 week rains from november 1 to 8 that caused wide spread damage to paddy crop here and we didnt expect north east monsoon to be that much vigorous here in coastal andhra and i think till now this year north east monsoon showed its maximum power in coastal andhra with amalapuram recording 32 cms in just less than 20 hrs being the only the place in entire asia to receive that much rain in short span of time and thats simply due to a small monsoon trough?might be la nina….and why chennai becoming dry in this crucial time?

  6. Dear Vinodh – Good answer, but it is not now, most of the time Chennai is deprived its share – if go back to history – whenever there is a cylone/low pressure/depression is formed – and we expect something good – invariably it moves to AP/Bangalesh etc – I thing geographically also some thing wrong in Chennai positioning – I may be just throwing a hypothetical question, but the truth is that we do not get enough rains.

  7. what current situation rain is pouring heavily in nagapattinam, cuddalore pondicherry,interior tamilnadu why Chennai always dry in these north east monsoon,today radar shows its clouds are up to tidivanam and interior whether Chennai will get rain or not please tell immediately today observation

  8. Effect of NEM in Rajasthan

    Ajmer and Jaipur 5 Cm each (ending 8.30 AM today) ! Effect of the system which crossed TN last Tuesday and made its way to Gujarat and Rajasthan.

    Delhi is cloudy today with a light drizzle.

  9. radhakrishna,i am fine..how are you?
    The shear and SST are pretty favourable the ridge is preventing the system to move north since ridge is weakening the rain would move slowly northward .We will be getting rains in coming days.A low pressure is already there in southwest bay.wait for 1 or 2 days ww will be getting rain πŸ™‚

  10. bhaskaran,Thats a difficult question to answer in view of storm movements but for rains there are instances where chennai has got extremely heavy rainfall.i dont think that we are unlucky with rains.

  11. radhkrishna,The month of november is always combined with wet and dry spells.We are into a dry spell but soon we will be in wetter phase.November rains are purely dependent on cyclogenisis unlike october.

  12. Vinodh
    I have been reading yr observations with interest.Thanks for adding to Blog value.I was seeing the WU satellite and did not see the cloud mass..yr comments?

  13. ya vinodh i am fine and how r u doing.for me sem exams over and 1 week holidays and college reopens on 29 nov and i think this time no water problem for chennai due to heavy inflows into telugu ganga project water supply to chennai and average north east monsoon and hey i think u know 2009 october floods in andhra when SRISAILAM DAM WAS OVER FLOWN BY KRISHNA WATER AND WE ALL THOUGHT THAT SRISAILAM DAM MAY BURST AND THAT WAS TERRIBLE FLOODS THAT WE HAVE EVER FACED AND EVEN THERE WAS FLOODING AT VJWADA AND AT THAT TIME DID POONDI EVEN GOT FLOODED?????BCAZ TELUGU GANGA CANAL ORIGINATES FROM SRISAILAM DAM & AS THERE WAS FLOODING AT SRISAILAM THERE MIGHT HAVE BEEN FOR SURE FLOODING IN THAT CANAL THAT SUPPLY KRISHNA WATER TO CHENNAI?

  14. I am new comer and just finished reading most of the posting of Vinod.

    Man, with such awesome interest in meteorology why you are not in this field.

    If you do some professional course on meteorology you can very well earn as well as your current job which I think is software job(as I guessed from you job timings)

    Shipping companies recruit people with such qualifications and the salary commensurate or more than from IT job.

    Even if you don’t get job you can always join KEA METSITE as its chief meteorologist and I think kea won’t object that. But demand a hefty paycheck from him because you deserve it.

  15. One of the best monsoon NE monsoon I can remember is way back in 1990. In just 1 week chennai received almost 70 cms rain. It was pure and simple monsoon rain. No cyclone or depression. It started on a thursday morning and went well in to Wednesday of the following week. If I can remember it was from Oct 25th onwards.
    The rains were peculiar in the sense that at night we had no rain, but it used to rain during the day. The maximum rain we had was 14 cms.
    Chennai was quite badly flooded then. Luckily we didn’t have the present day traffic.

  16. The 1989 cyclone in may which went finally to machilipatinam also is very fresh in my memory after all these years. It was severe cyclonic storm with core of hurricane winds. The system came so very close th chennai before like always heading north. The system has wind speed up to 200 kmph. It came as close as 140 North east of chennai. It was a very devastating cyclone killing thousands in AP.
    Infact I do not remember any other powerful cat 4 storm coming so very close to chennai. There was absolute silence before the system moved closer. It was hazy, windless and quite.

  17. KEA – you are just 21, what a great service (hobby) you have and we are benefitted immensely because of you. Almost all in this are young, lively, enthusiatic – probably I am the only one 2.5 times older than you all. Thank you so much and keep your good work going. All the best

  18. Hi Bhaskar Kea should be 29 now since he was 6th STD in 1990.I am as old as Kea but found this site only in august this year..Wish there was something like this when young i have been in chennai for 30 years of my life..It is very nice to see passionate youngsters on chennai weather..I used to be loner when i was admiring the electric showers during NEM and some off season cyclones in May and june

  19. Oh sorry you should be 31 -1990 – 6th means 10 years + now 2010 – in any case you are doing a wonderful service. I am 56 years my friend

  20. Let me share details of the 1990 super cyclone which went to machilipatinam. By mistake I had referred the year as 1989. Guess I am getting older πŸ™‚

    Super Cyclonic Storm BOB 01
    Main article: 1990 Andhra Pradesh cyclone
    Super cyclonic storm (IMD)
    Category 4 tropical cyclone (SSHS)

    Duration May 4 – May 10
    Intensity 235 km/h (145 mph) (3-min), 920 hPa (mbar)

    A tropical disturbance organized into a tropical depression on May 3 in the Bay of Bengal. Unlike its predecessor, conditions were favorable for continued development, and the system became a tropical storm on the 5th. A weakness in the subtropical ridge brought the system northwestward, where it quickly intensified to a cyclone on the 7th. It reaches a peak of 145 mph winds the next day, but it weakened to a 115 mph cyclone on the 9th when it made landfall on Andhra Pradesh, India. It dissipated 2 days later over central India. Massive evacuation efforts were placed for this cyclone, resulting in 150,000 people leaving the coastline. Strong flooding still caused 510 human fatalities, but the effect on agriculture was substantial. More than 100,000 animals were killed, and crop damage was estimated at $600 million (1990 USD). This was the worst Indian cyclone since 1977.

    It came so very close to chennai. It was scary and trilling at the same time.
    For more visit : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_North_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season

  21. Kea,

    I was in 8th std then. It was by far one of the best monsoon that I have ever seen in chennai. My school was in Tnagar Habibullah rd. The whole road went under water. It was so much fun. Ever day morning you wake up to find East horizon covered by dark clouds. Infact there used to be these giant clouds emerging from East early in the morning rumbling with thunder.

  22. Just understand from my friend in Colombo – it has been raining heavily last few days – with lightening and thunder – traffic has been held up for hours

  23. Kea,

    This is a great website. Finally I am able to meet folks here who are as passionate about weather. Wish we had a similar setup in our growing years in chennai.

  24. One thing kindly note: This city was not intended to be located here. The main reason was Francis Day and his dubash Dimbanna wanted a peaceful location to start a factory with loom and gin as they had issues in Machilipattinam and Surat. The location was selected as they were close to cotton producing areas and cheap labour.

  25. yes radhakrishna,it was really a terrible flood .The whole of vijayawada would have been terribly affected if the dam would have collapsed.one of my friend caught in that flood. He said to me that water level just rised drastically in few mins ..is that true?

  26. vjyanand, i missed 1990 cyclone action :(.i was just 3 years then..i remembered the heavy rain but i had no idea that i was due to a cyclone :(..More the storm powerful, the more you will see the calm weather before the arrival of storm.

  27. Even tropical cyclone gay would have made more impact on chennai in 1989 but unfortunately it was such a compact storm with the wind radius extending only few kilometers from the center.

  28. Vinod,

    It was an awesome cyclone. On May 9th afternoon around 1.00 Pm it crossed near machilipatinam. But the show in chennai was only till May 8th night. On May 8th we had very heavy rain from 11 am to 3pm. It was around 1 pm , I learnt that the system has moved north and was 140 Km North East of chennai. It was quite disappointing 😦
    Probably good that it moved. Else chennai would have got smashed.
    From evening 5 Pm it was just drizzling. It got very windy from evening. We could hear the wind howling outside from 5pm to 9 Pm. After 9 Pm it was less windy. There was no power but. We had to listen to the cyclone story on radio.

    Before May 8th show all was quite on May 7th. It rained once in the morning. From then on it was all quite till evening. NO wind and No rain. Sky was hazy. Kind of grayish back color clouds overhead. East was dark and black. But the clouds were not coming in. It was all weird. I have never seen anything like that before or ever since. These super strong hurricanes have strange behavior.
    From evening of May7th it rained on and off. But absolutely no wind till 8th morning. Like a Vacuum Cleaner hurricanes can suck winds from nearby area.

    One of my friend from orrisa also recollected similar experience when super cyclone smashed puri in 1999 october.

  29. The vorticity is slowly increasing so we could see a sudden increase in the convective clouds associated with the low pressure in coming hours.Presently the convective clouds looks moderate.The circulation lies over moderate shear.The shear is estimated to be around 15-20 knots near the system and low shear of 10 knots to northeast-north of system.

  30. yes that is the always the characteristic of major storms.even the rain in may 7th morning would have come due to pretty disorganised nature of clouds or it may be due to storms northwest movement but later it really organised at an explosiive rate and changed its direction too.i guess the storm would have gone an eyewall replacement cycle as soon as it reached cat4 that may have caused the slight weakening before landfall.All huge storms usually goes through eyewall replacement cycle once if it reaches cat 4 or 5 .Thats also been the case with orrisa super cyclone too.

  31. The latest sat images show rains can start by ‘morrow morning.

    Bulk of the rains will be confined to south tn.

    Doppler is not looking pretty at the moment for Chennai. But overnight it may change and convection may begin.

    Mr. Vinod no office today. Usually your posts are after 10 pm isn’t it.

    I am also a techie in Ramco Systems.

  32. Mr Bhaskaran

    I am really surprised to see a 56 year old person actively participating.
    At your age most will be filled with job and family things.
    Your postings show you’re actively looking out for websites containing weather info and posting from there whenever you find one interesting.

    people like you inspire us to have a broader look at life

  33. Vinodh and Vikranth – 1) I always believe age is only state of mind (2) Apart from this I am actively interacting various other sites – cultural/heritage/current world affairs On an average I get approx 100 mails a day. This is apart from my official mails. I do respond to most of the mails. LIfe is interesting with you all. That is why in my earlier posting I have mentioned that we should contact thro mails also on other activities to know each other better. My father (who has passed away recently ) was very much interested in weather forecast, probably I have inherited this from my childhood

  34. Hello Mr.Bhaskaran,

    You are an inspiration to all of us… and I am not too young to say this.

    I would have done much better in geography if something like this was available during my school days.. I read all the posts, but will not be able to post frequently.

    Great to know you guys.. We should also try and start a weather channel as is available in the US/Europe. I have said this earlier in this site…

  35. hi friends anyone please tell me,… What is difference between “Upper air circulation” and “low pressure area” if this two are different or same?
    and what are the conditions which produces “upper air circulation”?

  36. Roughly about 6 feet and the mettur dam will fill up πŸ™‚

    except Thamirabharani all the other river systems are in good flow

  37. Tamil Nadu at 22% above normal rainfall !! with the delta ,tuticorin,tirunelvi districts doing so poorly…this is a great achievement.. Chennai,Pondy,Cuddalore are fairly ok not all that bad…

  38. Upper air circulation is the earlier stages of low pressure where the air rotates in the upper layer of atmosphere which is an indication of some system formation .If the surface pressure in ground level along the area of upper air circulation goes below 1013 mb then it is called low pressure.


  40. to see prakasham barriage getting flooded during 2009 october floods in andhra click this linkhttp://www.deccanchronicle.com/image-gallery/hyderabad-image-gallery/flood-water-flowing-high-speed-prakasam-barrage-vijayawada-mon

  41. @Radhakrishna ji emmundhi chennai-vijayawada route lo? chaalaa dharananga untunthi except krishna river πŸ™‚

    best rail routes i have seen is hubli-goa, palakkad-kozhikode, mangalore-madgaon (during SWM).. Chennai-Bangalore(during NEM) πŸ™‚



  43. It’s thursday. But no rains in sight for Chennai

    Doppler is clear. Chennai is not going to get much rains in the coming days also if the present trend continues.

    Mettur has got only 6 feet to fill up but 10 TMC of water is still required so we have to wait for another week at least for it to fill up.

    If the rains in its catchment stops then it won’t fill up at all.

    Let’s wait & see

  44. BUSINESS LINE bulletin

    The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said that the week ending December 2 is likely to see a trough of low pressure hanging over contiguous Southwest Bay of Bengal, Equatorial Indian Ocean and Southeast Arabian Sea.

    The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) of the US National Weather Services attributes this to a strong but short phase of a wet Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over this region.

    The wet and dry phase of the eastward-bound wave that transits the region periodically has commensurate impact over ground-level weather.

    The persisting La Nina conditions in the East Equatorial Pacific would also have a say on emerging weather in the region, the CPC assessed.

    There is an increasing chance for above-normal precipitation for East Indian Ocean (adjoining South and Southwest Bay of Bengal), Southern Indian Peninsula and the Comorin region, the CPC forecast statement said.

    The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) sees active conditions developing over the Bay of Bengal during the week ending December 1, with coastal Tamil Nadu and the Peninsular Tip slipping under a wet cover.

    Parts of West Madhya Pradesh, Central Peninsula, East and Northeast India could also witness occasional showers during this period, the NCEP said.

    The week that follows (December 2 to10) would once again see fairly widespread showers over Coastal Tamil Nadu coast along with Sri Lanka and the Comorin region.

  45. Good Morning Guna – I am working with Packaging India – Essel Group -(Zee TV and ICL are part of this Group) You can see our name PIPL in almost all product u use in day to day lift – Bournvita,Halls, Britanna Biscuits, Cadbury -you will find our name in the wrappers (corner/middle)

    Isurprisingly no postings from you y’day where were u

  46. radar readings indicate good showers east of cuddalore up to karaikal in open sea.

    chennai would be coverd under rain belt by this evening as moon & venus are placed in better confiugarations for another 6 days starting from today evening.


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