150 thoughts on “Rainy start to the week

  1. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 89.0E, APPROXIMATELY 820 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA.
    THE LATEST ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED AND DEEPENED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AS SUPPORTED BY A RECENTLY FORMED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN FLANK. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, ALBEIT BETTER DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST EAST OF THE CONVECTION, THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 142005Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW 15-20 KNOTS OF
    EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HOWEVER A SLIGHT DIFFLUENT FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM HAS EMERGED.
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSTIY FIX AT 142330Z. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE MORE DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

  2. guys im new to the forum…u guys are doing a good job..any update on the system in BOB.BBC is giving it a Northly Movement….will it affect chennai

  3. From IMD morning:
    Synoptic Features based on 0530 hrs IST
    ♦ The low pressure over southeast Bay of Bengal persists and is more marked. It is likely to move westnorthwestwards.

  4. The system is moving too fast. might cross the coast by wednesday if it maintains the same speed. clouds now on the increase both in length and as well as breadth. probably it would have been between 10.5 north and 86 east as per 8.30 am satellite readings.

    radar could pick up signals once the cloud belt touches less than 500 KMS from chennai which could be possible by this evening.

    any opinion

    ss.

  5. radar picks up lot of red spots/lines just 25 KMS north east of chennai and also showers are spread over 50 KMS in small segments.

    we will be in for moderate showers for few minutes within half an hour or so.

    ss.

  6. Kea,

    Please see the latest satellite picture which indicates the system travelling quite fast and it has also covered more than 500 kms in length / breadth. it slightly moves north and now placed just east of karaikal. Hopefully by midnight this would start giving showers to north coastal tamil nadu. it has to move more west to cover more areas of tamil nadu coast, if it moves north west most of the rains would be coverd in south andhra coast. it looks like this is much bigger a depression.
    ss.

  7. we only need a good depression which can bring widespread showers for 2 to 3 days. really a cyclone not always giving the expected rains.

    even IMD has announced about a well marked system in bay of bengal in their 11.30 report and also indicating possible intensification as a depression soon.

    ss.

  8. It is going to be a deep depression and there are clear indications, I think IMD will upgrade this surely before evening though they have mentioned in SUN TV next 24 hours there will be heavy rains

  9. Jon, this NEM season has been very bad for Chennai. Any specific reason for it? Why aren’t we have the normal low pressure and depressions that used to form atleast twice or thrice generally during OCT-DEC period every year?

  10. Surya Grahan, solar eclipse, is widely mentioned in the Holy Scriptures of Hinduism. There is also an interesting myth regarding the occurrence of Surya Grahan. It happened during the Samdura Manthan (churning of ocean) episode in the Puranas. Rahu (Demon) and Mohini, an incarnation of Lord Vishnu, are the main characters in the incident.

    The Amrit (elixir) that was obtained from churning the ocean was cunningly stolen by Ausras (Demons). Lord Vishnu took the form of Mohini, a beautiful damsel, to win back the Amrit. She achieved her mission by enamoring the Asuras, they fell for her beauty and handed over the Amrit to her.

    Mohini returned to the Devas and started distributing it. Devas sat in a line and mohini gave a portion to each one of them. Rahu, an Asura, who found out that they were tricked took the form a Deva and sat in the line between Chandra (Moon God) and Surya (Sun God).

    When Mohini approached Rahu, Chandra and Surya realized that Rahu was not one among them and soon identified him as an Asura. Mohini soon severed the head of Rahu which flew into the sky. Rahu’s, depicted in the form of a Snake head occasionally, continued to live and decided to avenge Surya and Chandra.

    Thus periodically Rahu engages in a war with Surya and Chandra. The Chandra Grahan (Lunar eclipse) and Surya Grahan (Solar eclipse) takes place when Rahu gobbles up Moon and Sun respectively. Surya and Chandra then fights to free themselves
    Is there any story regarding cyclones? let varuna bhavan get angry and pour rains to chennai and vayu bhagavan be less angry

  11. Looks promising as compared to JAL. Look at the visible image, north coastal TN (esp over southern delta) has decent cloud cover — good enough to produce rains.

    Thus I would say…some sharp showers would happen say 2 -3 cm by 5.30 PM today. So our keila account starts. This is unlike JAL when account started too late and when it did start, it was a Buss. buss.

  12. bbc has revised its prediction to more rains for Chennai to Ongole belts ( heaviest for Ongole) and decreases rains for Pondy.
    Meteo and foreca are also in agreement.

  13. @ dinagar1ganesh: Meteorology is a pure science. Never mix religious myths with science. It is like mixing alcohol with driving. You know where the mixture will end you up. Hence, kindly restrain from these kind of posts.

  14. @ dinagar1ganesh: //The Chandra Grahan (Lunar eclipse) and Surya Grahan (Solar eclipse) takes place when Rahu gobbles up Moon and Sun respectively. Surya and Chandra then fights to free themselves//

    Can you prove this?

    I have seen many eclipses and have photo & video graphed them. But never saw that rahu or kethu guys or those godly figures you mentioned.

    I have even had food during eclipses and even have made pregnant women to sit under the eclipsed moon and sun. But I never experienced things as told in those myths!

    Don’t post anything that has not been proved or difficult to believe. I am not a atheist!

  15. KEA – There should be moderator who should wet the postings – otherwise Rahu etc will come and swallow our primary information on Real Time Wealther positings – Friends I agree with Mr Dinakar – please restrain – post only useful information on weather. Thank you.

  16. this is quite strange. all the interior places except chennai city in patches receiving heavy showers.

    even outskirts of chennai has been receiving rains from morning and nothing for chennai.

    ss.

  17. DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED: 15-11-2010

    TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600UTC(.)

    SALIENT FEATURE: –

    VORTEX OVER SOUTHEAST BAY CENTRED WITHIN HALF A DEGREE OF LAT 10.5N/88.5E (.) INTENSITY T-1.0(.) ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY BETWEEN LAT 9.0N TO 14.0N LONG 84.0E TO 89.0E (.) WIND SHEAR NEAR THE SYSTEM IS BETWEEN 05 KTS TO 10 KTS INDECATING INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM (.)

    BAY OF BENGAL & ANDAMAN SEA: –

    BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER BAY BETWEEN REST SOUTHEAST BAY EASTCENTRAL BAY BET LAT 14.0N TO 17.0N LONG 85.0E TO 91.0E AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA(.) SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED WEEK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER REST BAY S0UTH OF LAT 17.0N REST ANDAMAN SEA (.)

    ARABIAN SEA: –

    BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN EAST OF LONG 70.0E SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA (.)SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED ISOLATED WEEK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER REST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.)

    THE RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG LATITUDE 16.0°N OVER THE REGION.

  18. as per latest readings, the system is moving quite fast but northward. so chances of rains to chennai could be very less, as the latitude already crossed 11.5 and longtitude at 87.

    unless the system moves totally west, chennai would be left high and dry. as it is this system may head towards machilipatnam.

    ss.

  19. NORTHERN INDIAN OCEAN / Bay of Bengal
    Update from JTWC for 1800 GMT
    System 90B
    Position 9.3N 89.4E
    Location 850 miles ESE of Chennai, India
    Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation is POOR

  20. @SS
    the system’s bands seems to be moving nord……………but its not as its sheared!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😐 its at 10.5N and 88.0E according to imd………….. 🙂

  21. Deccan Chronical news

    Visakhapatnam, Nov. 14: A low pressure area has formed over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea. The cloud formation is situated in Latitude 8.5 and Longitude 91.5.

  22. JTWC has recently updated the position and centered at 11.8 N & 88.1 east. so chances of giving heavy rains to chennai are less.

    ss.

  23. I hope I’m proven wrong, but I feel that the sun will be out in all its glory tomorrow morning 😦 From SAT pics, look like the LP is also moving towards andhra

  24. We had an 20 mins heavy shower in tambaram again at 4pm. I feel we would get 100 to 150 mm from this depression from the forecasts.

  25. Quick light shower in Adyar. I see that its not heading towards Chennai and that it may not turn into a cyclone. BUT still a whole lot better than Jal. Its atleast 1 day of good weather today courtesy this system.

  26. The sat pictures now clearly show, it is not going to impact Chennai at all and the chance of rain from the system is also only minimal.

  27. The topic has intermittent posts saying that there are serious rains at Nungambakkam. But the rain guage seem stuck at 3.6 mm. What’s wrong?

  28. Balaji

    You’re absolutely right and your rain gauge is also showing correct results.

    There was no heavy rain at all today at Nungambakkam. only sporadic showers.

  29. Clear skies, moon shining through…. I am sure it will be a sunny day tomm. Let’s forget rains and go to bed. Am so frustrated with the NEM this year

  30. KEA you are right – unlike tambaram/chromepet where we had fairly good intermittent rains, it hadn’t rained much in Nungambakkam – few drops here and there till I left nungambakkam high road at 5.30pm

  31. Intermittent heavy rains in tambaram from 9.00….at some instances it was very intense…but nothing lasted for more than 10mins..

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