125 thoughts on “Another dry and warm day expected

  1. I do not know how many of you are aware that there is an old custom in Tamilnadu, where in Shiva Temples they construct a small wall around Nandi (Bull) and fill it with water and pray Varuna Japam – this is not to bring any religion here, just to inform the old practice

  2. Dear All,

    A weak circulation is visible right over south andaman it is likely to shape up well and move towards north tamil nadu coast from this evening.

    for the past few days it is very hot and sea temperatures are quite high and there is a possibility from coming tuesday for one more week, heavy rains are possible.

    nothing to worry as still we have 2 full month for the north east monsoon to cease. even in january we can expect heavy showers.

    ss.

  3. Never seen such a warm Nov day, usually Oct 28-Nov 20 we have typical monsoon weather, dark mornings, heavy rains. Nothing of this sort this year.

  4. @ Ashwin : Even here fog comes mostly in January but not so often. Even I have experienced the smoking effort in January. Rather unusual here than some other cities is I have seen fog during April – around 1st week. A rare occurrence indeed.

    Fog is a pure atmospheric phenomenon, when the atmospheric water vapour comes into contact with cool ground or lower temperature around ground with no wind and the air is dense, fog forms. Fog veil may extend to few hundred metres to 1 or 2 Kms vertical in the atmosphere.

    We can see Fog like phenomenon ourself: When we open a frozen or cold condiments/food or cold aerated drinks or any frozen very cold material and when that comes into contact with the warm air, we can see a thin layer of fog forming. But that fog will quickly frivol away as the air is very warm than frozen surface. Here the fog forms when the air that is touching the cold item cools rapidly and the same time reacts with the warm air above it, a chain reaction occurs and we see fog, but same time the frozen / cold material looses its heat into atmosphere rapidly and we won’t able to see the fog after few minutes.

    On the lighter side: There is nothing called Cold in physics. As Cold what we say or feel is temperature lower than our body’s temperature.

  5. NEM has not failed, we cannot just look at Chennai alone in isolation, I swallow does not make a summer – one JAL failure makes you all think otherwise. As SSuresh NEM still very much there till December. Just wait till tuesday – there are clear indications in amost all weather forecast that Chennai will get its full quota – i remember KEA has mentioned last week we are short off 500mm – all these deficit wll be fulfilled by Friday next just wait and watch

  6. hi bhaskaran, hope your predictions come true, anyway things bleak at the moment. Generally by Nov 15, chennai should have got nearly 35-40 cm rain from NEM, hardly got 15 cm so far.

    On the lighter side an basketball commentator who said dont go away folks when a side is down 100-40 with 5 mins left, 100 yrs back a side won from this postion.

  7. fog are clouds in ground level
    There are many types of fog formation.
    fog during summer is due to highly saturated air which condenses down.
    Second one is caused by the warm moist air from sea meeting with the relatively cool air inland as stated by dinakar.
    Third one caused by earths radiation process.The earth gets cool down at night which causes all the warm moist air to condense down.

  8. The basic thing is that a fog forms only when warm air meets the cold air it is all the same condensation process which causes rain.

  9. Hi Sundar I have won carrom several times from that situation – Jon you are right that is exactly I have said – even before “so called Keila” there will be deep depression – that is what the current sat.images are showing – this will start from Tuesday onwards

  10. Detailed Local Forecast
    Today: Variable clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon hours. High near 85F. Winds ENE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
    Tonight: Scattered thunderstorms. Low around 75F. Winds NE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40%.
    Tomorrow: Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 83F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
    Tomorrow night: Variably cloudy with scattered thunderstorms. Low near 75F. Winds NNE at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60%.
    Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
    Wednesday: Scattered thunderstorms. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid 70s.
    Thursday: A few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 70s. –:(

  11. To all on this blog,

    My experience for weather forecast is that any forecast model beyond 5 days keeps changing. I would only rely on GFS or other models just up to 120 hours ahead. Further ahead is just an indication that may or may not materialize.

    Potential System has formed as 90B.INVEST

    90B.INVEST has already appeared on NRL on 2010-11-13, 2330z @ 8.7ΒΊN 92.5ΒΊE . Lets see how it develops further.

  12. when will the high presssure will move away ? any details on that?. also what is the forecast for wind sheer in the subsequent 3 to 4 days around the t.n coast

  13. Mettur dam at 103 feet (full level 120 ft)… from november 1 it has received more inflow than the capacity of Karnataka’s Krishna Raja Sagar πŸ˜›

  14. K.N. and VINOD

    Please inform KR about my misunderstanding and I feel very very sorry.

    As he has posted his comment quoting my post naturally I was taken aback and was wondering what happened that has caused so much anger to him.

    Even Vinod I think thought like that only. Now everything is sorted out after your explanation.

    once again to KR very very sorry for my misunderstanding.

  15. The easterly wave is going to give only scattered rains till 17th as per IMD.

    Only after that fairly widespread rainfall is forecast.
    Waiting for rains during this NEM is really frustrating.

  16. Agreed Shri Ashok,but JAL we were following it up for more 7 to 10 days, still it happened – only thing it failed give chennai enough rains which we did not expect – certain cylone movements takes longer time – all these forecast only tentative – For instance we have been talking abt 17th/18th depression now nearly 4 – 5days – it will certainly happen

  17. @vinodh……how u say confidently that system would intensify…….IMD does not even mention any heavy rainfall for TN coast.

  18. The latest sat pictures show the cloud mass which was not going anywhere from Andaman for the past 3 days has left Andaman now for good, and once again after Jal we can experience some wet weather this week.

  19. @ Vinodh : That is the reason. Also lack of flowing Air – dense water vapour content add to that. But Fogs in April are very rare in this latitudes.

    I have seen fog / Haze in some out of earth objects. There the fog or haze is caused by dense methane (CH4) and carbon di oxide ( CO2 ) which acts like water vapour coupled by low heat (Titan) high pressure & intense heat (Venus) caused the effect. Even Mars has fogs in summer when condensed CO2 evaporates and still cool atmosphere unable to it – results in fog in extreme northern and southern hemisphere during their summer.

    Most hazed / fogged objects are Venus (CO2) and Titan (CH4 )

    These two objects are permanently fogged or hazy.

  20. Rocker,i feel that conditions are pretty good for it to develop.If you look at the latest satellite picture it shows that system is getting good poleward and equatorward inflow.The vorticity level of the storm seems to be increasing.LLC seemed to be elongated in south west quadrant but that should consolidate as it moves westward.Shear is LOW and SST remains good . There is some dry air in north of system that seems to be relaxing now so it might reach cyclone strength or deep depression as it moves to south west bay.

  21. Dhinakar

    I thought you observe only earth weather.

    Now only I understand you’re also a astronomer and a weatherman who watches our entire Solar System.

    With people like you this forum really rocks!!

  22. Dhinakar,fogs during summer are common only in subtropical area you wont get any other area which has 100 percent humidity but i have not seen much of them in chennai during summer but if those type of fogs tend to happen it will happen only in subtropical area(area covering us).

  23. @guna : Yes I am a astro ‘nut’ my daily past time on a clear night to watch objects through my telescope. I have seen eclipses on Jupiter, Saturn. Has mapped many galaxies.

  24. When we discuss on earthy storms, I want to post on Extraterrestrial storms. I hope members won’t mind as it will be useful information:

    Storms are not unique to Earth; other planetary bodies with a sufficient atmosphere (gas giants in particular) also undergo stormy weather. A famous example is the Great Red Spot on Jupiter. Though technically an anticyclone with greater than hurricane wind speeds, it is larger than the earth and has been raging for at least 340 years, having first been observed by astronomer Galileo Galilei. Neptune also had its own lesser known Great Dark Spot.

    In September 1994 Hubble telescope using Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 imaged the storms on Saturn, generated by upwelling of warmer air, similar to a terrestrial thunderhead. The east-west extent of the same-year storm was equal to the diameter of Earth. The storm was observed earlier in September 1990 and acquired the name Dragon Storm.

    The dust storms of Mars are variable in size, but can often cover the entire planet. They tend to occur when Mars is closest to the Sun, and have been shown to increase the global temperature.

    Biggest storms are in Jupiter – Great Red Spot followed by one in Neptune. In Saturn’s south pole there is earth like eyed hurricane raging, but it is in Hexagonal shape.

  25. mediteranean sea prone to mid latitude lows which comes from atlantic and move towards france and reach the mediteranean.They usually cause heavy thunderstorms to greece,italy,parts of north afica and turkey.since they are mid latitude storm they occupy much larger area.
    Dhinakar,mediterranean stroms are not rare.

  26. @ Vinodh: Storms, do pass from Atlantic into Mediterranean sea. What I was mentioning was formation of storms on that sea. They are rare.

  27. dhinakar,Thats really awesome :).I think wdm4 variant never entered India.i once entered into wds shunting loco during my childhood days 😦 other than that i have never entered into any loco’s.Driving india’s most mostrous WAP 7 is really awesome.If i get a chance i would go for WAP7,WDP4,WDm3d and WAG9(goods loco) which is most similair to WAP7 model.

  28. dhinakar,storms tend to form in mediterranean sea too but on rare occasions as you mentioned they take a subtropical shape.I remebered one midlatitude storm in 2000 which took almost a subtropical shape .i mean a semi subtropical storm which brought about about 75 miles wind speed to greece.I watched it in BBC world weather some 10 yeras ago it almost looked like a tropical storm in strength but not in shape.

  29. @ vinodh: Some non service locos are tested in loco sheds and kept in Zonal training centres for training. When I was foot plating around 1998/99, there were some locos with A/c cabins, GPS aided train management systems. They were on pilot testing but later they were removed on odd reasons.

    Sorry that loco was WDM3D not WDM 4. Sorry for error. I just checked my log which I maintain about the locos which I foot plated.

    My best locos are YAM1 and WAM1

  30. “Sabaash! sariyaana potti” between two storm chasers. One tracks earth storms and other celestial storms in addition to earth.

    Now both of you make your predictions on the low which has formed now in the bay. Whether it will become a cyclone/depression or only remain as a low pressure till it reaches Indian coast.

    Let’s see whether Vinod’s prediction or Dhinakar’s prediction on Keila is coming true.

  31. Vinod ok πŸ™‚

    No competition. But just give your view based on the current weather factors what will the “low” become. A storm or just remain as a low till it reaches TN.

  32. The present system near andaman islands would develop and move towards north tamil nadu coast as over north bay a strong anticyclone and cooler sea waters. So the system would slightly move south west initially and then take a westerly / north westerly direction. This has to develop quick to bring heavy rains from the middle of coming week. There are lot of chances as moon is travelling in good constellations for another 15 days.

    let us see.

    ss.

  33. Dear All,

    The latest satellite picture reveals the system has considerably moved west and it is now between 8.5 and within 90 east. possibilities of development is likely by tomorrow morning.

    ss.

  34. the new system looks a tad better organized than jal. Still some fragmentation – but pretty good start esp. compared to Jal. From that position, Jal took nearly 5 days is it to make its (uneventful) landfall? But all said, it sure looks better formed than Jal to my untrained eye.

  35. Rajkumar,it is not a cyclone yet but it is showing some promising spiralling .It seemed to be more close to a depression status.It may have attained the depression status.lets see.

  36. JTWC has said it has winds upto 25 knots so it means that it is a depression according to american standards.I dont know about IMD whether they will upgrade it to a depression becasue they take a 3 min average whereas all other organisation take 1 min sustained wind.

  37. @Kea

    Just had a look at temperature readings on keasite.

    you’ve given 33 (13-11-2010) as month high.

    But in yesterday’s high it is given 32.1 (11.20 am) .

    Which one is correct ? What is yesterday’s max temperature.

    asking this because it is going to be the month’s maximum temperature.

    From now onwards the max temp will drop as the low pressure is nearing us.

  38. clouds in bay of bengal are moving wsw.. so some parts are north tamilnadu can get late night decent showers.. lets see. 2mw probably will be thin cloudy cover over here.

  39. The latest JTWC observations, the system has moved considerably towards west and placed around 9 North and 89 east. exactly east / south east of pamban. As it has picked up both speed and intensity it may by tomorrow termed as a depression, and start affecting weather over north coastal tamil nadu by tuesday morning.

    let us see.

    ss.

  40. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 92.9E,
    APPROXIMATELY 370 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED
    MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA HAS ORGANIZED AND INTENSIFIED
    OVER THE ANDAMAN ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 140305Z 37GHZ
    PARTIAL TRMM IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING ORGANIZING AROUND THE
    LLCC. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF
    THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 10-20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
    WINDSHEAR AND DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM, BUT AN ANTICYCLONE
    OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAY OF BENGAL IS SUPPRESSING OUTFLOW ON THE
    NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. NO STRONG OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE
    DEVELOPED THUS FAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
    AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
    NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
    TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

  41. For ks,

    Pertaining to your post
    “Watch the system..LIVE!”

    I think it is not live but it changes every six hours, though time may be current. Observe it and check it out. Also when using IR4 if you change the sensitivity to 150 and then areas with blue and red or pink remain (clouds) and these areas are more prone to get precipitation, though not always. By experience one can judge co-relating to the actual on ground.

  42. Depression is under moderate vertical shear(15-20 knots) which has increased drastically around the LLC so it will inhibit the development.The system will organise if it moves in a west-northwest direction since the shear tendancy to the north of system showing negative.It facing same problem like JAL.Since it is showing persistant convection around the center for past 6 hours it can be classifeid as depression provided wind speed is around 25 knots( 1 min sustained not 3 min sustained) and pressure around 1002 MB.

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