109 thoughts on “After the mystery of Jal, Keila seems to be tougher to predict.

  1. Keila takes time to form. Still Jal circulation is there in arabian, we can expect keila only in next week friday.

    Heavy rain in Nungabakkam from morning and now drizzle

  2. Hi frnds,

    I am raj from chennai, nungabakkam.

    I am new to this site and wordpress, just now i registered.

    I like this site very much and its very interesting to see all you guys, posting a useful information .

    I will post my useful comments to this site.

  3. As per Business line Keila or if keila hasn’t formed then a low pressure is expected to wash ashore near Chennai by 16th.

    So Keila is still having some chances of giving rain to chennai and it’s not going to Burma as per earlier predictions.

    As usual let’s wait for the successor to Jal.

  4. Friends – whether Keila or not – the sat image clearly indicates there will be rain almost every day like what we had y’day and this morning. Even now thick clouds over Nungambakkam. What we want is only rain nothing but rain and it will be there

  5. Most of weather sites are predicting rains for 16th and 17th let us be hopeful. Let it be a feeble low pressure only low winds and plenty of rain. Let the cyclones appear after our normal quota for the NEM is reached.

  6. Severe Rain here at pammal for the past 20 min.. Never slowed down…….i am sure it would have crossed 5 cm here. again rainfall increasing… 😛 am happy

  7. Cyclone Jal

    Fatalities 117 dead, 12 missing
    Damage $391.55 million

    Over 16 flights scheduled to land at Chennai were diverted to Bangalore because of poor visibility.It was reported that around 300 thousand hectares of cropland was devastated by the cyclone. Power outages occurred at many places in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh throughout Sunday

  8. Thanks Gunaji and Rocker with details, and creating confidence.

    KEA -understandable after our bitter experience with JAL, but you will see the difference in next 2-3 days 🙂 ;(

  9. I think JAL has created ruckus amongs all. Is there anyone who can predict with absolute accuracy – let us through our pessimistic views and look forward to Keila’s success

  10. Please read THE HINDU y’day. JAL has disappointed almost everyone – probably the entire chennai – may be it was a shock to most of us who were following it for more than a week. It became unpredictable to everyone. That is why I am saying let us forget JAL and look forward to KEILA.

  11. Chennai kku “Jaga koduttha Jal” – well this was the excellent caption given in one of the leading Tamil newspaper on 8th November.

  12. ehsan,jal did made landfall in chennai thats true but i dont think it made landfall as a deep depression we hardly had any winds. In rain point of view it is pretty understandable because jal LLC hardly had any big thunderstorms but what about the wind? Jal would have made landfall below depression status.Post storm analysis will give a good picture but for that IMD need to analyse the storm 🙂

  13. Jal was unique in that it stuck to the forecast path – to that extent many models and participants on this forum got it right. But right from the start it looked disorganized – never did “look” like a forceful cyclone – more like a huge mass of cloud. Did we ever see a distinct eye? I know there were a few posts towards the end – but it just didnt have “shape”

  14. i mean jal had an eye but it was invisible in visible satellite.most storm do develop an eye as soon as they reach category 1 status.

  15. latest gfs predicts no keila but only heavy rains from a wave or low!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂 thats good news!!!!!!! 😀

  16. @ Vinodh

    One long pending question to you?

    Howcome you’ve become a cyclone expert.

    Many of your postings are like a professional meteorologist with good scientific explanations.

    Did you study any course on meteorology or learnt about storms just out of curiosity and interest from the internet and other sources.

    Even I am very much interested about storms but could not understand much about the technical details and other explanations which are provided by many forecasters.

    Please answer my question. I think many people in this forum will be just as curious as I in knowing this.

  17. Sooper sai asks if chennai has ever been hit by a major cyclone more than category 1?
    Has it ever snowed on the peak of anaimudi?

  18. KEA – a thought just went over my mind – based on Gunas query – why not educate everyone about – Low Pressure, Depressions /Cylone and other nuances of Meteorology -specific to weather – this can be done when there is a lull in rain – this can include our Ramanan’s favourite word āŪĩāŊ†āŪŠāŊāŪŠ āŪšāŪēāŪĐāŪŪāŊ 🙂 🙂 🙂

  19. guna and supersai,I have not done any course on metrology :)..It is just my curiosity to learn about the storms.I got all the info from the internet only :)..since i am doing this for pretty long time i am able to collect lot more information and observe lot more storms.

  20. It started right from my LKG.Those days the pressure chart on hindu was the only source .i mean it was some 18 years ago .These days hindu hardly publish pressure charts.My uncle had pretty good knowledge on these storms he used to explain to me when i was a kid that drew a lot of interest.

  21. supersai i heard that chennai have been hit by a cat1 storm in 1970’s or 1960’s but i am not sure. guys,do any of you have heard about this?

  22. Crossed Tamilnadu coast close to and north of Cudalore at 2330 UTC on 5th December and was within 50 km WNW of Cuddalore at 0300 UTCon December 6. Maximum wind speed recorded at Cuddalore was 111 KMPH to 148 KMPH (60-80) between 2230 UTC of 5th & 0230 UTC of 6th.80 People killed and 30,000 people rendered homeless in Madras due to flood.Total loss Rs. 40 crores. December 1-8,1972

  23. crossed near Chennai around 2100 UTC of 6th Dec.1996.The cyclone persisted for 9 days which is reported to be very long life compared to any cyclone in the Indian Ocean. It caused severe damage to life and property. 28 Nov.-06 Dec1996

  24. bhaskaran,one in 1996 was a tropical storm i can remember it but a cat1 storm hit chennai around 1960’s .I heard it brought a gust of 160 kmph and winds of 130 kmph.i am not sure whether it is true or not?

  25. bhaskaran, i think it must the storm that you have mentioned (one in 1970’s).If that is the case then no cat1 strom had hit chennai.Thats pretty bad ðŸ˜Ķ

  26. Its peculiar this year. I am sure, if you look at the averages TN would end up above normal for sure. This is most probably due to La-Nina effect where the North West (Maharashtra, Karnataka, Goa, Gujarat), South West regions (Kerala), North east Andra, and Interior Tamil nadu would get excess rainfall.
    The coastal areas of tamilnadu which typically would get enormous rain, like Nagapattinam, Chennai etc., would get below normal.
    But if the BAY cools down a bit, we might get less intense low pressure troughs instead of Depressions and cyclones, which would yield good rains for the coastal areas. But that’s far for now.


  27. Tamil nadu has got 278.3mm from NEM, Chennai AP has got 255mm ðŸ˜Ķ ….this is the first time after 2005, Chennai is gonna beat chennai AP unless some miracle happens

  28. Thanks for posting your meteorological profile Vinodh.

    It’s really amazing to see someone like you who is interested in pressure charts from LKG itself while most other kids were learning alphabets and rhymes.

    We ordinary people, can only just read with awe about storms&hurricanes and I think it will be very hard for us to emulate you in learning about them, with the eye of a pro.

    Our best regards to you. Keep up your good work.

  29. Pradeep your record is also quite superb, collecting pressure charts for past 13 years.

    It is great to meet such hardcore weather enthusiasts through this blog.

    Thanks Kea for providing us this wonderful forum.

    And now It’s your turn Kea to give some details about your website.

    Who owns this website ? From the details appearing on the website, it seems the data are meant for flight professionals or aviation people because much importance is given to wind speed.

    Does any private airline company owns this website

  30. IMD
    Weather Outlook (upto 0830 hours IST of 16th November, 2010)
    â™Ķ Fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over south Peninsular India with isolated heavy falls over coastal
    areas of Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu.
    â™Ķ Under the influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation over south Andaman Sea which is moving west-northwestwards, a low pressure area is likely to form over central parts of south Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood.

  31. @IMD report……coastalll????????…..idiot ..he is adding fuel to my fire ðŸ˜Ą ðŸ˜Ą ðŸ˜Ą ðŸ˜Ą ðŸ˜Ą

  32. very high wind shear in upper levels over bangalore… yesterday and today… today right from morning, huge thunder clouds could be seen forming with three fourths of the sky overcast and dark grey… but after a slight drizzle only thin, wisp like formations were left of the cumulonimbus clouds… could very clearly see the upper part of the clouds being blown away by wind shear…

  33. so instead of getting around 20 – 30mm of rainfall… all bangalore has got yesterday and today is 0.7 & 0.2mm…. wind shear should subside in the night as temperatures drop… and wind shear was also forecast to drop from tomorrow…

  34. hoping and praying that the wind shear can reduce and bangalore can get a few more days of good rainfall before the end of this month when our NEM ends… cos all we’ve had in the past few days is plenty of thunder and lightning but close to NIL rainfall…

  35. Dew is severe. My telescope was full of dew. Today the Chennai Sky is dark enough to show many southern most objects and I was able to see in detail the Orion Nebula. Southern most horizon was covered with cloud, so is western and northern horizons. Polaris was bright enough to be spotted clearly. Usually very very hard to find it in the dust and light pollution of Chennai as city lights get reflected in the dust. Chennai lights will be visible as a orange glowing done behind Nagari nose! Over all sky is good. Thanks to rains in forenoon.

  36. Martin,wind shear is a cyclone killer not the thunderstorm killer.Wind shear extends the life of a thunderstorm it does not kill it.It kills cyclone because the structure of a storm is higly altered from cylindrical it becomes to elongated which leads to demise of cyclone but in case of individual thunderstom wind shear extends the life of thunderstorm by moving it to great altitudes.

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