132 thoughts on “Commencement of NEM rains is likely around 29th Oct: IMD

  1. Coinciding with the launch phase, a weather system has been forecast to wash over along the Chennai coast Sunday/Monday to bring heavy rains over Chennai and the rest of the Tamil Nadu coast.

  2. He also refers to two factors – La Nina and Southern Oscillation – that may work against bountiful rainfall during the monsoon. The prevailing La Nina and the positive phase of Southern Oscillation (SO) point to the likely deficient rainfall during the monsoon this time.

  3. NCEP precipitation forecasts for the coming week and next week looks very promising and this may put an end to uncertainty over commencement of NEM.

  4. How much to believe in this Raj… The presence of La Nina was known already in the beginning of the year. Why was this Forecast about North East Monsoon not made then itself.

    I feel our meteorologists have no clue about anything.
    They seem to refer to other models and try to ‘Predict’

  5. Met department officials look for three indications in the weather before they officially declare that the monsoon has arrived. They check whether the southwest monsoon has completely withdrawn from the northern part of the country, whether the easterly winds have set over the region and whether the whole state is receiving rain.

    S R Ramanan, director, meteorological department, Chennai, said, “There are still no signs of the monsoon, but there is no need to become despondent. We should take into consideration that even last year the monsoon had arrived only by October 29. So a delay is not a setback. We can still hope for good rains.”

  6. If you see the way our meteorologist ‘predict’. they never say anything with full conviction. They tend to lean more towards the ‘Normal’ or ‘Average’ side.
    So that in case of a wrong prediction they can always lean either ways..
    How many predictions by the IMD has been accurate?? Forget accurate atleast 60% right ?

  7. Since NEM news giving negative signs… the only positive news for the delta farmers is that the Kaveri dam (KRS) in mysore is full… they are hoping they could get something from karnataka which is not likely to happen 😦

  8. Radar readings indicate quite a heavy shower around 50 KMS north east of chennai. might move bit south and is likely to bring rains to chennai with in one hour. But still sometimes we feel winds from north west.


  9. Its been raining like crazy here in Kozhikode like it is the end of the world..
    The Kampus is back to its glory days of the monsoon and it feels like the month of june or july..

  10. rain bearing clouds not moving towards chennai.

    it is raining between tada and gummidipoondi pockets for the past half an hour. message from my close friend who is at tada.


  11. It looks like coastal areas nearby chingleput get battered by heavy showers for the past 15 minutes as per radar.

    no signs of any shower in and around chennai.

    even areas near tada still drizzling righh from morning.

    chennai is unlucky so far but showers might spread afternoon at least.


  12. great news KEA

    what ever it may be i enjoyed yesterday’s raind although it was for only 30 mins it was just so beautiful! pure white sheet of heavy heavy downpour…we could nto even see the roa dofr some time…huge amount of water flowing everywhere….it was amazing…hope this is the good beginning….with more like this to come

  13. IMD midday report
    Major Feature of Weather Forecast (upto 0830 hours of 30th October, 2010)
    ♦ Commencement of northeast monsoon rains is likely over Tamilnadu and adjoining peninsular India around 29th October.
    ♦ Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over Tamilnadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

  14. In the latest satellite pictures large mass of clouds are spread all over the south bay and fast approaching towards srilanka and adjoining TN. If they hang on after approaching the land
    we can get continuous rainfall for 2 or 3 days.

  15. The radar readings are not to the minute. it always reflect 30 minutes back position.

    is it right. pl. clarify.

    just drizzling in anna salai but radar says no rain which throw half an hour back picture.



    Isolated heavy rain would occur over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and ghat areas of South Interior Karnataka during next 48 days.

    😦 😆 waat nonsense is this????????????!!!!!!!!!!!

  17. radar picked up lot of showers about 100 to 250 Kms north east of chennai, of course in patches which signify wind pattern had changed.

    This iMD is uttering some nonsense by repeating heavy rain forecast for karnataka which is a biggest joke. Probably they would have pasted previous week’s forecast wrongly.

    from tomorrow onwards coastal tamil nadu would be really facing wet weather for a week.

    let us see.


  18. wunderground predicting 43km/h wind from WNW on monday!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😯 😦 😮

  19. It will be perfectly fine, if we receive normal monsoon downpour. Hopefully, Chennai should not be battered by the cyclone since it can cause a lot of damage and inconvenience to property and people.

  20. latest imd satellite picture shows heavy clouds over Bangalore and its neighbourhood. over Chennai as usual it is very clear.

  21. It is very normal for Bangalore to be cloudy during this time of the year. October is almost over and Bangalore must be already getting ready for the onset of winter.

  22. sachin,

    it is a tricky question. According to KN, mr. raj of IMD and IRI the monsoon will be a failure.

    jon, KAR and I are still hopeful of a good monsoon

  23. Jon,

    we need to wait another 4-5 days to get a clearer picture. In their last update it should the cyclone crossing on 7th

  24. Eshan,

    Lets have a bet. This will become Category 4 or 5.

    Its coming into Andaman as a depression or cyclone and thus it has time and space to develop as a bigger system.

    Sea Surface Temperature also supports the system to develop.

  25. Pradeep,

    i hate cyclones. There are 101 things that need to be favourable. You r saying it has time to develop between andaman and us. It could even weaken.

    My prediction is if its a cat 3 or above it will go to bangla or burma. If it has to come to chennai, then it has to be a depression.

  26. Kea

    have a look at the October forecast of iri. They have not predicted a monsoon failure.In fact its all about climatic probability for nov/dec/Jan
    Also above normal rains from dec to apr

  27. S western disturbance an important factor which affects the movement of a cyclone.but i dont see any w.d according to most models 🙂

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