162 thoughts on “NEM rains to commence this week

  1. Foreca too hinting at a formation of cyclone around 3rd.check out the 10th day forecast for karaikal,its shows winds more than 45mph

  2. The wait for the NEM rains is still continuing with every passing day.

    The days are still relatively hot with high levels of humidity.

  3. Looks like sunny again ๐Ÿ˜ฆ Atleast a bit more windy .. i have no hopes for heavy rains any time soon, but if the temp comes down it would be little better.

  4. First signs of approaching North East Monsoon.
    The sky is getting cloudy.With few dark clouds.
    If you remember the same kind of clouds were visible in early October when many models predicted early NEM. But the bay cyclones one after the other spoiled the NEM onset.
    Now looks like there wont be any stopping to the NEM.

  5. thunder cloud has formed suddenly to the south west of chennai – north west of Chengulput (to be precise over Congivaram) and moving north east towards chennai. It may become big and pour over chennai. Temp in Chennai is dropping considerably.

    but in this site, still showing 31+ but my thermometer is showing just above 28.8C

  6. Chennai will get all the NEM rain in November itself. 600 – 700 mm looks achievable.

    3rd – 5th November, Depression in BOB will cross TN coast, enter Arabian sea, and could develop into a cyclonic storm and head towards Gujurat (200 mm from this system for Chennai)

    9th Nov, early indications show a cyclone for TN coast. (possible 150-200 mm).

    By 10th Nov, chennai would get min of 350 mm

  7. there were some storms to the west and east of Chennai. Now nothing where did they go? and why the storms are dissipating?

  8. Raja,

    read it properly.

    Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from remaining parts of
    east and central india, Gujarat and some parts of Maharashtra.

    this has been there for 3-4 days now

  9. Weather Outlook (upto 0830 hours IST of 30th October, 2010)
    โ™ฆ Conditions are becoming favourable for onset of northeast monsoon.
    โ™ฆ Fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over south peninsualr India and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
    For more details kindly visit http://www.imd.gov.in or contact : +91 11 24631913, +91 11 24629798
    Service to

  10. keaweather

    ehsank78@ovi.com

    2010/10/20 at 3:03 pm
    IMD will announce before this weekend that conditions are fovourable for the onset of NEM over tamil nadu.
    Oops i forgot IMD does not work normally on weekends, so we will have to wait until monday

    Unapprove | Reply | Quick Edit | Edit | Spam | Trash Onset of North-East monsoon may be delayed
    144 #

  11. Deepavali action….This would be better than Nisha, as interiors are slated to get solid rains. Nisha was raining out only in the coastal districts and interiors and south TN were left out of action.

    B.w there is another L following after a couple of days!!!

  12. before everyone gets excited about the Nov 5th system. It is more than 10 days away and GFS is unreliable for periods exceeding 3 days.

    The one positive thing is it has to rain sometime, y not on Nov 5th

  13. hi kea guys how r u?hey what about north east monsoon updates?like tamilnadu entire south coastal andhra belt farmers from krishna district to nellore district eagerly waiting for north east monsoon,any wayz this year its proved that chennai receives rain from both south west and north east monsoon otherwise 3 days holidayz in chennai during south west monsoon that too in july??we must accept it.hey IMD SAYING SHEARZONE IS PRESENT ALONG 15 DEGREES NORTH ALMOST ALONG SOUTH ANDHRA TO CHENNAI.WHATS SHEAR ZONE?IS IS ADVANTAGEOUS FOR FORMATION OF CYCLONE?

  14. I THINK ONLY SOUTH EAST COAST OF INDIA HAS A RIGHT TO RECEIVE NORTH EAST MONSOON AS BLOODY WESTERN GHATS LEAVE SOUTH EAST COAST OR COROMANDEL COAST FROM KRISHNA TO SOUTH TAMILNADU DRY.OFFCOURSE.

  15. From accuweather forecast look at the wind speeds!

    Wed Nov 3
    Periods of rain

    High: 29C
    RealFeelยฎ: 32C
    Winds: NNE 27 kph
    Gusts: 66 kph
    Rain: 6.1 mm
    Snow: 0 mm
    Ice: 0 mm
    UV Index: Highย 
    Sunrise: 6:03 AM
    Overnight
    Windy with rain

    Low: 26C
    RealFeelยฎ: 27C
    Winds: NNE 39 kph
    Gusts: 90 kph
    Rain: 44.2 mm
    Snow: 0 mm
    Ice: 0 mm
    Sunset: 5:41 PM

  16. Nov 3 to nov 7 are the days to look out for heavy rains

    may be a depression / cyclone on the offing

    I went trough atleast 6 weather forecasting site and all are predicting heavy rains and high winds during that period

  17. hmm…ok but still this was a very bad October to say the least hopefully November and December can boost our year round total to nearing 170?

  18. clouds have stopped moving from West – East tonight over bangalore… Very still weather… no wind at all.. Signs of change… NE winds could start strengthening from tomorrow evening onwards.. onset of NE monsoon could be declared on the 28th/29th… Look at the southern BOB as well… plenty of moisture comin in…

  19. Yes ashwin i guessed it could be raining in Adyar by lookin at the radar! Ppl in d rest of the city are waiting!! bur chances of heavy rains are less for those in far north and, north west i guess!

  20. oh no for nov 3- nov 7 plss….it will spoil diwali! …but thumbs up for nov1-3 cyclone…ill get a weeks holiday if it so…as skool is already closed for diwali from nov 4-7

  21. GFS is not looking good anymore for Chennai. Nov 5th system does not exist anymore. Nov 9th system is heading towards Andhra.

    BL saying NEM can pick up only after 7th Nov.

    Suddenly things not looking bright for Chennai/

  22. latest radaar readings indicate scattered showers over bay of bengal about 50 KMS away in sea both east, north east and also south east of chennai.

    hopefully these showers might spread further west and may also affect chennai by noon, if the winds are from north east direciton.

    ss.

  23. For a brief while, yesterday night looked promising. But its a normal, horribly warm morning again – and pretty disappointing to read the review of forecasts here.

  24. If we were to believe the forecast of GFS, we will only be cheated. This year tracing the onset of NEM continues to be very tricky and elusive.

    So nothing can be taken for granted until it really starts raining in Chennai. Patience is the key!

  25. Heavy rain in pondicherrybetween 12.30am to 2.00 am. winds fron NE. cool climate. Reports says that a cyclone will form near chennai during 1st week of Nov.

  26. Hi Sriram,

    At this Lat. the L, is going to strike Orissa…or its eastern shores.

    Hmmm..let us see the further model runs…

    Siva

  27. for the past few minutes east and north east becoming dark. possibly showers may commence in another one hour.

    any other opinion??

    ss.

  28. Unless there is a LP, we r not goin to get useful rains..most of this weekend’s rains going to central AP..

    Clouds still coming from NW..If there is one more cyclone which misses TN/South AP, then our NEM will be a huge failure

  29. Anna salai towards east good showers for 10 minutes.

    no rains beyond nandanam area towards west.

    one could feel the north easterly wind.

    radar also picked up some showers across the coast.

    but not much in open sea.

    we need a good pressure system to increase the rains.

    ss.

  30. Best constant award can be given to bangalore.. max min was around 27/19, 28/20 for around 6 months or something ๐Ÿ˜€

  31. rains restricted to nearly 2 to 3 kms radius towards coast line. so virtually no rains beyond triplican, adyar, mylapore, mandavali and parts of anna salai.

    radar does not reflect any rain bearing clouds beyond a few kilometers.

    we might get sunshine in few minutes from now.

    message from anna salai.

    ss.

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