170 thoughts on “Will the NEM begin on the 25th as forecasted?

  1. Pradeep some one commented in ur blog from coastal KK:

    “It is raining like peak monsoon here at Udupi, Mangalore or coastal karnataka in general.. since last night, heavy this morning for 3hrs. Sat pic shows lots of SW monsoon like clouding. Is the warning(possible reinvigoration of indian monsoon due to la-nina) issued by the Australian weather bureau correct?
    Regards,
    Shri “

  2. Severe Cyclonic storm Giri is causing the southwest monsoon withdrawal pinned down to where it stays currently and delay the onset of the northeast monsoon over the Southeast Coast of India.

    The ealier it dissapears the better for us.

  3. KN,

    Cant help much. Until 27th is the severe dry MJO phase over South. Only from 28th is the neutral phase and the wet phase starts from 7th.

    We can expect only lite showers until 28th.

  4. The withdrawal line of southwest monsoon continues to pass through Forbesganj, Dhanbad, Champa, Seoni, Khandwa, Bhavnagar,
    Porbandar, Lat. 21°N/Long. 65°E and Lat. 21°N/Long 60°E.

    this has not changed in past 5 days atleast. Hope major changes occer after the end of Giri

  5. Why is the south west monsoon so hesitant to withdraw totally from the country? Chennai is again hot today with mercury soaring close to 35 degrees today in October!

    The painful wait for the rainy season continues Gosh!

  6. @Vinodh it is not cat 3 yet and I do not belive it will be cat 3 before making landfall as it has not much oceanway left to make that intensity.

  7. Are the Myanmar military Junta making the same mistake all over again?

    In 2008 during the time of very severe cyclone Nargis, I knew 2 days before it hit, it is going to be devastation. The ruling military seems to have not learnt the lesson yet.

    No official warnings yet and Severe cyclone Giri with winds crossing 150 kms is just hours away from making landfall.

    We all knew what happened during Nargis, lets hope with warning and evacuations there are able to limit the casualty this time around.

  8. @kea, I share your concern here. I do not believe the orthodox military rule in Myanmar will do anything instead of sitting and watching their own people die..

  9. @kea,

    Thanks for those nice words. Let’s see if the dark clouds could cover the bright sun and give us merciful and bountiful showers very soon!

  10. surely we will get rains in october
    Day Weather Max. Day Temperature
    (°C) Min. Night Temperature
    (°C) Wind Direction and Speed
    (mph) Humidity Pressure Visibility
    Fri Day weather

    Heavy Rain Shower

    Heavy Rain Shower
    31 25 South Westerly8 68% 1006mb Very good More info for Friday’s weather
    Sat Day weather

    Heavy Rain Shower

    Heavy Rain Shower
    31 27 South Westerly7 66% 1007mb Very good More info for Saturday’s weather
    Sun Day weather

    Heavy Rain Shower

    Heavy Rain Shower
    32 26 West South Westerly6 63% 1007mb Very good More info for Sunday’s weather
    Mon Day weather

    Light Rain Shower

    Light Rain Shower
    32 26 Westerly4 68% 1007mb Very good More info for Monday’s weather
    Tue Day weather

    Heavy Rain Shower

    Heavy Rain Shower
    31 25 North Westerly3 69%
    NO NE winds till 31 oct as per BBC
    pl tell me how to post comments through cell phone GPRS

  11. dany ,giri is now a super cyclone ..it is a cat 4 storm.it has reached the cat 3 status by noon.low shear and sst can casuse wonders.

  12. @ KEA,
    yes it is possible, on Jul 26 2005,
    Mumbai AP( Santacruz) recorded 944mm, but
    Mumbai city(Colaba) recorded only 67 mm..

    So a significant difference btwn the two stations is possible!!

  13. Nobody expected giri to become a devastative cyclone..while making landfall it is strongest category 4 perhaps even category 5.

  14. business line

    The wind pattern is expected to change to monsoon easterlies from Tuesday onwards, triggered by a cyclonic circulation forecast to develop off the Chennai coast.

  15. how come no news regarding giri anywhere? Are the military junta trying to hide the fact that the cyclone even hit their country?

  16. kea,hey are going to do same thing as they did for cyclone nargis.They never worried about their people.
    Mugundhan, no cat 5 cyclone has hit the TN till now.

  17. kea,they are going to do same thing as they did for cyclone nargis.They never worried about their people.
    Mugundhan, no cat 5 cyclone has hit the TN till now.

  18. i never seen any cyclone to become from a minimal storm to a cat 5 in just 24 hours in bay of bengal.It should be next to cyclone Ului which is the fastest intensifying storm in the world.

  19. Weather Outlook (upto 0830 hours IST of 27th October, 2010)
    ♦ Increase in rainfall activity over Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu and Kerala.

    Does anyone need increase in rainfall activity over Kerala?

  20. yes,Not only the eye wall the whole storm is very compact and not as big as nargis but still the place where the eye passed would be routed.

  21. ♦ Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, coastal
    Karnataka and Kerala during next 24 hours and decrease thereafter 🙂 🙂 🙂

  22. but,

    Weather Outlook (upto 0530 hours IST of 28th October, 2010)
    ♦ Increase in rainfall activity over Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu 🙂 and Kerala :sad:.

  23. according to accuweather,

    Monday – day – N-W, night – NNE
    Tuesday – day – N, night – NNE
    Wednesday – NNE

    Weatherundeground

    Monday – day – N-W, night – NNE
    Tuesday – day – N, night – NNE
    Wednesday – NNE

  24. In Sun news they are showing that NE monsoon would start by the end of october. the delay is due to formation of depressions in bay of bengal.

  25. Ncep precipitation forecast

    Entire south TN to get around 20cm rain for the week ending 31st Oct – 7 Nov 2010 as per NCEP forecasts.

    For Chennai it is about 20 cm from 23rd Oct till 7th of Nov

  26. Weather Outlook (upto 0830 hours IST of 28th October, 2010)
    ♦ Increase in rainfall activity over south Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu.

    thats sounds much better, without Kerala.

  27. Conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from remaining parts of east
    and central india, Gujarat and some parts of Maharashtra.

    This is the best news of the week.

  28. Sachin,

    its impossible to answer your question accurately. For sure there will be a few cyclones as the pacific is extremely active as in 2005. But will it strike Chennai, nobody knows.

  29. NEM to set in on 27th or 28th of October… winds still blowing from the SW… that will have to stop first… first NEM rains only after the 30th of October 2010

  30. A chance for Bangalore to make up its deficit of 9 cms (currently at 88 cms) over the next one week as the SW monsoon withdraws.. leaving more moisture over the peninsula.. and NE monsoon tries to set in…

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