There seems to be no definite onset date according to forecasts.
It is increasingly becoming clear that the West Pacific-South China Sea-Bay of Bengal basins would need to calm down before the northeast monsoon can unfold along India’s southeast coast.
Hectic activity in the Bay is not allowing the seasonal anticyclone over Northwest India to extend to lower latitudes and preside over the simultaneous exit of southwest monsoon and entry of the northeast monsoon.
KeaWeather Archives 
it looks most likely that the onset will happen no earlier than november. Imagine an october with hardly any rain.
A November Onset of NEM is very bad for us.Already a very short monsoon , a november onset leaves us effectively only 1 month for the rains. Of that there will be some dry phases too.
So there will be rains at the max for 15 days.
What a way to the North east monsoon this year.
Pathetic…
Cuddalore 8mm till 5 30 AM
chandru,
NEM can extend to January. Forecasts has been for west phase until Jan end due to La Nina
guys don u think westward movement of the depression sending some positive signals regarding southward shift of the monsoon trough?
Kea,
La Nina might extend into January.But as observed from the past,most of the late december and early January rains go to southernmost tamilnadu and srilanka..Very rarely do systems in End December come to North TN as by that time the Anti cyclone moves further south causing rain bearing clouds to move further south close to the equator.
I am baffled as to how forecasts initially said an early North East Monsoon.. Now they themselves are clueless about its onset..
Guys,
Please see this link
http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=944&PageID=7868&mode=2
where you can see IRI’ s forecast for the last 10 years..
From what i saw, the forecast made by IRI is not reliable.
In 2005 their September and October forecast say bekow normal rains for TN. Bu that was not the case.
Same is the case with other years too
So the question is what to really believe ??
Look at Foreca!..Clear sunny skies on Oct 23 with SW winds in full swing 😦
But COLA is saying rains from 20th for sure..
Horrid weather – at this rate the High Temp of 1.10.1920 is under serious threat.
Warm weather is good before monsoon as it keep the SST high for bay activities
let’s wait for this current depression to move away. Then maybe the monsoon trough can slide southwards to herald the NEM
Ne winds likely to set in after 24th
So hot in chennai for past one week…is tiz a sign f onset f monsoon…humidity also low..now 38%oly.@jon,kea,jove.ks
Very heavy rain for 1 hour just ended in Bangalore. Many roads flooded.
If this dry phase is going to pave way for the onset of monsoon, then we will all get rains, which will provide the much needed relief from the second spell of summer in Chennai. No thunderstorm activity or for that matter not even a drop of rain.
So far it has been a very very dry OCTOBER.
Wind direction has turned NNE now..
hi kea vijayawada is very cool from 4 days seems winter has set in minimum temperature in vijayawada is 20 degrees with max of 34 and kea did u observe the 94b invest is moving down.previously cimss showed invest location east of vizag and now they r showing east of KAKINADA
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=97B&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
see this link for confirmation can any one of say how likely it may cross andhra coast?we dont need rain now its harvesting season and andhra is full of abundant water due to good monsoon but offcourse farmers in south coastal andhra waiting for north east monsoon
guys……………..
when will the sw winds end???????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😦 😡 😯 its torture!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😡
http://www.accuweather.com/en-us/in/tamil-nadu/chennai/forecast2.aspx 🙂 second week of gfs accuweather very wet!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😀
I dont see NEM anytime this month. Earliest onset possible is only around 10th of November.
Sep 2010 was one of the coldest Septembers in many many years.
Looks like Oct 2010 will be one of the hottest.
We are sure to break the 5 straight month streak of 100 + mm of rain this month.
5 months is already a record for the past 10 years.
kea
in september
did the rainfall be above normal or below normal this time????????????????? 😦
we got 10 mm more in sep
This is 9th time 97 B has changed its direction. I am not sure how many more times it will changes direction before making landfall. It seems like the low is as confused as how we are with respect to NEM.
is this really necessary this year???????? 😦 😦 😦
http://www.hindu.com/2010/10/06/stories/2010100653410400.htm
storm picking up its intensity 😦
http://weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/satellite?LANG=en&CONT=asie&CREG=inir&STRUCTUR=_
According to weather2 ne winds likely to set in only after 27th
The systemin BOB would intensify further into a deep depression and move West Northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by 15th October 2010 evening.
I would not be so pessimistic about NEM. Let us wait for the current system in the Bay to play out. The GFS forecasts for week 2 have been too variable to completely rule out NEM onset.
dany,the change in cordinates of storm is due to uncertanity in pointing out the exact location of LLC.It is pretty difficult to point out the exact coordinate of LLC until storm consolidates itself.The current satellite picture shows a consolidating LLC with very deep convection wrapping the center.I guess it would become a cyclone by tomorrow..by seeing the latest satellite of storm it looks like it has attained the deep depression status ..still there is no official confirmation..
yes vinodh u are right we are unable to find out where the centre of the depression is but CIMSS showing it exactly between vizag and kakinada but i think LANDFALL WILL BE BETWEEN VISAKHAPATNAM AND GOPALPUR WHICH IS EXACTLY ON ANDHRA ORISSA BORDER FOR CONFIRMATION FIND OUT THIS LINK
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=97B&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0
There is a moderate shearing to the southern end of the storm that will allow only slow intensification.
yeah it would make landfall somewhere close to orrisa and north AP border.
still there seems to be uncertanity in pointing out the actual position of LLC it would be clear if it consolidates a little more.
and vinodh can u tell us about north east monsoon hey farmers here in SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA GETTING READY FOR RABI SEASON BUT STILL NORTH EAST MONSOON MUCH DELAYED AND SITUATION IN TAMILNADU SEEMS TO BE HORRIBLE AND HEY VINODH U KNOW HERE IN VIJAYAWADA 4 DAYS BACK HORRIBLE SUN AND ITS LIKE SUMMER BUT U KNOW FROM 4 DAYS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 20 DEGREES AND IN HYDERABAD ITS 19 DEGREES.SO DO U THINK WINTER HAS SET IN???????????IF WINTER SETS HIGH PRESSURE BELT MUCH BE THERE IN NORTH INDIA?SO DEFINITELY NORTH EAST MONSOON MUCH SET SO CHILLY CONDITIONS HERE SHOWING SET UP OF NORTH EAST MONSOON NEARLY IN 10 DAYS MAX
AND EVEN 97b IS MOVING WESTERLY THAN NORTHERLY AND THIS HAPPENS ESPECIALLY IN WINTER AND WHAT DO U THINK??ITS INTENSIFICATION TO CYCLONE IS LESS AS ITS NEARING LAND
SSMI is the sensor which defines the location of LLC..by looking this it is clear that it is not a well defined LLC yet .
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?PHOT=yes&AGE=prev&ACTIVES=10-WPAC-15W.MEGI10-ATL-17L.OTTO10-ATL-18L.PAULA10-WPAC-87W.NRLMRY10-WPAC-88W.NRLMRY10-WPAC-91W.INVEST10-WPAC-93W.INVEST10-IO-97B.INVEST&ATCF_BASIN=io&SIZE=Full&NAV=tc&ATCF_YR=2010&CURRENT=20101014.1104.f15.x.85h_1deg.97BINVEST.30kts-1000mb-167N-884E.84pc.jpg&ATCF_NAME=io972010&MO=OCT&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2010&YR=10&BASIN=IO&STORM_NAME=97B.INVEST&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc10/IO/97B.INVEST/windsat/ssmi/85h&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=85h&SUB_PROD=1degreeticks&INTERVAL=prev
radhakrishnan,since the cyclone is moving more or less in a westerly direction it is somewhat clear that something in the northern plains is preventing its movement to north..I think the anticyclone (high pressure /ridge ) has moved bit east and it is inhibiting the northerly movement of storm..we can hope that anticyclone to intensify in coming days which should push the monsoon trough down south and also bring the NEM winds..
The sudden change in vijayawada weather is due to the storm movement close to AP ..
radhakrishnan,Intensification will be slow due to moderate shear values and it seems that sea surface temperature close to AP coast is below the threshold level.
HEY VINODH I HAVE A DOUBT….I THINK THAT COASTAL ANDHRA IS MORE HOTTER THAN TAMILNADU BUT I FEEL VIJAYAWADA AND CHENNAI CLIMATE THE SAME BUT CHENNAI IS MORE BETTER AS U CAN GET SOME SEA BREEZE,SO IN BOTH ANDHRA AND TAMILNADU THE SUN IS BURNING SO IN THE SAME WAY BAY OF BENGAL WATERS BESIDE US ALSO SHOULD GET WARMER THAT MAY PRODUCE ATLEAST A LOW PRESSUREIN THE WORST CASE AND EVEN THE STUPID WIND SHEAR INCREASING,BUT WHY ALL THESE NT HAPPENING?CAN WE EXPECT A CYCLONE LAILA AGAIN FOR SOUTH ANDHRA OR TAMILNADU IN NE MONSOON SEASON?BUT LAILA ROCKS ANY WAYZ
The weather in vijayawada will change once the storm moves away.
HEY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS IN NORTH AP THAT HAPPENED AS 97B IS MOVING FROM 2 DAYS ALONG NORTH COASTAL AP AND BUT CONVECTION IS HORRIBLE ALONG TAMILNADU AND UPTO KAKINADA
west vellore dist has got some rains i guess
yes we can expect something big in this NEM..i expect a major storm in november..The reason is that western pacific belt is unusually warm during the La Nina which produces more low pressure systems close to china sea and it moves towards bay..If you see the bay history during La Nina years it usually produces a major storm.
The SST close to AP and orrisa would have decreased due to the movement of 96b some 4 days ago which finally made landfall in WB.
KN,there are lot of tstorm popping close to vellore.
HEY VINODH HOPE IT BECOMES TRUE BECAUSE 2008 north east monsoon is fantabulous with khaimukh cyclone and nisha cyclone but 2009 is the dirtiest ne monsoon didnt even produce a depression but produced a stupid PHYAN which instead of coming to tn went to mumbai to a place which does nt belong to north east monsoon region
i have heard that there was heavy rain in chennai recording up to 20 cms rain when laila skirted chennai coast?
yup we got 20 cm but laila did not strike chennai it is only the outer bangs of laila produced rain to chennai.
ya ok vinodh nice speaking with you u provided me a lot of interesting information and take care bye
@vinodh I understand the variability is because of consolidation, I just written that way thinking it wuld be humour as most of them here were predicting nem in so different ways that I wanted that oscillation to that of 97B Consolidation. But now I understand my humour did not go well 😦
bye man..good night 🙂
Sst is actually high along north tn, south ap as against north ap,south orissa
dany, its okay yaar:)
dany, i did not mean anything serious:)
Where is KR these days?
Ne winds from 24th according to meteo http://www.meteogroup.co.uk/uk/home/weather/world_weather/city_weather/city/91X290/chennai.html?cityID=91X290&tx_mgcityweatherstatic_pi4%5Bp%5D=1
Foreca too predicting change in wind direction to e,se from 23rd http://www.foreca.com/India/State_of_Tamil_Nadu/Chennai?tenday
its seems that there was heavy rain in thirupattur yesterday around evening..squally weather prevailed in jolarpet around noon which resulted in uprooting of trees..i got this news from karthik raghavan..deep depression is responsible for all this activity.
According to GFS, onset of monsoon will be 24 th or 25th. It is predicting heavy rains on 25th
Bangalore 34.9mm Bangalore AP 34.2mm 😀
This october end North Andhra and orissa coast will affect by severe floods.
On nov month chennai will get excess rain same like last year.
A low pressure in SW bay on first week of nov has chance to give 30 -40 cm rain
Paradeep has got more than 400 mm last 1 week with 2 depressions and more rain is forecast today.
–
Nagai received some showers yesterday evening..
Similar thing should happen for Chennai in the month of November hopefully.
Rains in Nagai yesterday evening
I think the remnants of typhoon Megi, will develop into a system and headed to TN.This will mark the beginning of the NEM season.
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201010141800&VAR=prec&HH=276&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=0 😀 well this should mark the onset of nem!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😎
Bangalore closing in on its target.. with so many rainy days.. overcast weather during SWM.. Awesome weather in late April and May… A 11cm 3-hour storm..temperatures always lik 27/20 …Phenomenal job by bangalore this year even without NEM..
Even athiramapattinam doing so well.. what happened to chennai.. it was in the lead before.. now so many stations closing in
Where shall we go and bang our head against this injustice?.. look at kochi last 10 years october..
2001- 48cm
2002- 46cm
2003- 49cm
2004- 62cm
2005- 45cm
2006- 55cm
2007- 42cm
2008- 30cm
2009- 12cm (more than chennai in this year too 😦 )
Mangalore,Mangalore AP, Honavar, Shirali all of them above 400cm.. chennai’s latitude more or less equal to mangalore.. i hate western ghats 😐
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6N
90.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF
VISAKHPATNAM, INDIA, AND HAS MOVED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT FROM A 141458Z METOP-A MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS, DERIVED FROM SHIP AND BUOY
REPORTS, ARE ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE LLCC – CHARACTERISTIC OF A
CLASSIC MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
HIMALAYAS IN A ZONE OF MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(30-35 KNOTS). THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FACTOR INHIBITNG FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prec&HH=180&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=0
Man thunderjove, watz this then? 😦
the 97 B deep depression seems to change its land fall point its almost making a land fall at srikakulam in north coastal andhra,less likely to hit gopalpur as a land fall
Chennai will get around 150-170 mm this month. Shortfall of around 120 mm.
But GFS beyond a week can it be relied upon.
Dark over NW..
Definitely not
heavy rains for nagai dist btw 23rd and 31st http://www.monsoondata.org/wx/prec.html
ne monsoon current will pick up over s.bob by 23rd 🙂 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=swas&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201010150000&VAR=uv10&HH=192&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=0
If it rains in nagai heavily we can be assured NEM has set.
what is the latest about the deep depression. Wasn’t it suppose to cross between Paradeep and Gopalpur today evening.
Hardly any rain in both these places.
13 mm in Puri. THe place where it was suppose to cross
Gopalpur has 43.2 mm yesterday, bhuvaneswar 40 mm and kolkata 24 mm but no rains in vizag. So, must be raining there today
dharmapuri, kuppam 4cm..tirupattur 3cm as i said sterday…there was a super squall der it seems …day b4 sterday to tpt has got 2cm
ya tirupattur is just bangalore adivaram 🙂
some times palani,kodaikanal get rain together.. somethin lik dat 😀
was that depression a dummy piece?
outlook till oct 20 😐 😐 😐
fairly widespread rains in west coast and north east..
aah its time for NEM 😦
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/satmet/dynamic/insatsector-ir.htm
According to the insat picture on the link, the DD is over Jn of AP, MH, CG, MP and OR states. The expected line of movement is as per predictions of BBC!
Tomo is the release date for IRI october edition
very strong winds today…….. but from south west
This Octover is very similar to October 2009.
NEM will be pretty late end of october and might not be strong.. Rains only in Nov if we are lucky
Why winds still blowing from south west? Wat is attracting the winds to go north east ?