Wait for NEM gets longer

There seems to be no definite onset date according to forecasts.

It is increasingly becoming clear that the West Pacific-South China Sea-Bay of Bengal basins would need to calm down before the northeast monsoon can unfold along India’s southeast coast.

Hectic activity in the Bay is not allowing the seasonal anticyclone over Northwest India to extend to lower latitudes and preside over the simultaneous exit of southwest monsoon and entry of the northeast monsoon.

99 thoughts on “Wait for NEM gets longer

  1. A November Onset of NEM is very bad for us.Already a very short monsoon , a november onset leaves us effectively only 1 month for the rains. Of that there will be some dry phases too.
    So there will be rains at the max for 15 days.

    What a way to the North east monsoon this year.
    Pathetic…

  2. guys don u think westward movement of the depression sending some positive signals regarding southward shift of the monsoon trough?

  3. Kea,

    La Nina might extend into January.But as observed from the past,most of the late december and early January rains go to southernmost tamilnadu and srilanka..Very rarely do systems in End December come to North TN as by that time the Anti cyclone moves further south causing rain bearing clouds to move further south close to the equator.

    I am baffled as to how forecasts initially said an early North East Monsoon.. Now they themselves are clueless about its onset..

  4. If this dry phase is going to pave way for the onset of monsoon, then we will all get rains, which will provide the much needed relief from the second spell of summer in Chennai. No thunderstorm activity or for that matter not even a drop of rain.

    So far it has been a very very dry OCTOBER.

  5. hi kea vijayawada is very cool from 4 days seems winter has set in minimum temperature in vijayawada is 20 degrees with max of 34 and kea did u observe the 94b invest is moving down.previously cimss showed invest location east of vizag and now they r showing east of KAKINADA

  6. guys……………..
    when will the sw winds end???????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😦 😑 😯 its torture!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😑

  7. We are sure to break the 5 straight month streak of 100 + mm of rain this month.

    5 months is already a record for the past 10 years.

  8. This is 9th time 97 B has changed its direction. I am not sure how many more times it will changes direction before making landfall. It seems like the low is as confused as how we are with respect to NEM.

  9. The systemin BOB would intensify further into a deep depression and move West Northwestward and cross Orissa coast between Gopalpur and Paradip by 15th October 2010 evening.

  10. I would not be so pessimistic about NEM. Let us wait for the current system in the Bay to play out. The GFS forecasts for week 2 have been too variable to completely rule out NEM onset.

  11. dany,the change in cordinates of storm is due to uncertanity in pointing out the exact location of LLC.It is pretty difficult to point out the exact coordinate of LLC until storm consolidates itself.The current satellite picture shows a consolidating LLC with very deep convection wrapping the center.I guess it would become a cyclone by tomorrow..by seeing the latest satellite of storm it looks like it has attained the deep depression status ..still there is no official confirmation..

  12. still there seems to be uncertanity in pointing out the actual position of LLC it would be clear if it consolidates a little more.

  13. and vinodh can u tell us about north east monsoon hey farmers here in SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA GETTING READY FOR RABI SEASON BUT STILL NORTH EAST MONSOON MUCH DELAYED AND SITUATION IN TAMILNADU SEEMS TO BE HORRIBLE AND HEY VINODH U KNOW HERE IN VIJAYAWADA 4 DAYS BACK HORRIBLE SUN AND ITS LIKE SUMMER BUT U KNOW FROM 4 DAYS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 20 DEGREES AND IN HYDERABAD ITS 19 DEGREES.SO DO U THINK WINTER HAS SET IN???????????IF WINTER SETS HIGH PRESSURE BELT MUCH BE THERE IN NORTH INDIA?SO DEFINITELY NORTH EAST MONSOON MUCH SET SO CHILLY CONDITIONS HERE SHOWING SET UP OF NORTH EAST MONSOON NEARLY IN 10 DAYS MAX

  14. AND EVEN 97b IS MOVING WESTERLY THAN NORTHERLY AND THIS HAPPENS ESPECIALLY IN WINTER AND WHAT DO U THINK??ITS INTENSIFICATION TO CYCLONE IS LESS AS ITS NEARING LAND

  15. radhakrishnan,since the cyclone is moving more or less in a westerly direction it is somewhat clear that something in the northern plains is preventing its movement to north..I think the anticyclone (high pressure /ridge ) has moved bit east and it is inhibiting the northerly movement of storm..we can hope that anticyclone to intensify in coming days which should push the monsoon trough down south and also bring the NEM winds..

  16. radhakrishnan,Intensification will be slow due to moderate shear values and it seems that sea surface temperature close to AP coast is below the threshold level.

  17. HEY VINODH I HAVE A DOUBT….I THINK THAT COASTAL ANDHRA IS MORE HOTTER THAN TAMILNADU BUT I FEEL VIJAYAWADA AND CHENNAI CLIMATE THE SAME BUT CHENNAI IS MORE BETTER AS U CAN GET SOME SEA BREEZE,SO IN BOTH ANDHRA AND TAMILNADU THE SUN IS BURNING SO IN THE SAME WAY BAY OF BENGAL WATERS BESIDE US ALSO SHOULD GET WARMER THAT MAY PRODUCE ATLEAST A LOW PRESSUREIN THE WORST CASE AND EVEN THE STUPID WIND SHEAR INCREASING,BUT WHY ALL THESE NT HAPPENING?CAN WE EXPECT A CYCLONE LAILA AGAIN FOR SOUTH ANDHRA OR TAMILNADU IN NE MONSOON SEASON?BUT LAILA ROCKS ANY WAYZ

  18. HEY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW THRESHOLD LEVELS IN NORTH AP THAT HAPPENED AS 97B IS MOVING FROM 2 DAYS ALONG NORTH COASTAL AP AND BUT CONVECTION IS HORRIBLE ALONG TAMILNADU AND UPTO KAKINADA

  19. yes we can expect something big in this NEM..i expect a major storm in november..The reason is that western pacific belt is unusually warm during the La Nina which produces more low pressure systems close to china sea and it moves towards bay..If you see the bay history during La Nina years it usually produces a major storm.

  20. The SST close to AP and orrisa would have decreased due to the movement of 96b some 4 days ago which finally made landfall in WB.

  21. HEY VINODH HOPE IT BECOMES TRUE BECAUSE 2008 north east monsoon is fantabulous with khaimukh cyclone and nisha cyclone but 2009 is the dirtiest ne monsoon didnt even produce a depression but produced a stupid PHYAN which instead of coming to tn went to mumbai to a place which does nt belong to north east monsoon region

  22. @vinodh I understand the variability is because of consolidation, I just written that way thinking it wuld be humour as most of them here were predicting nem in so different ways that I wanted that oscillation to that of 97B Consolidation. But now I understand my humour did not go well 😦

  23. its seems that there was heavy rain in thirupattur yesterday around evening..squally weather prevailed in jolarpet around noon which resulted in uprooting of trees..i got this news from karthik raghavan..deep depression is responsible for all this activity.

  24. I think the remnants of typhoon Megi, will develop into a system and headed to TN.This will mark the beginning of the NEM season.

  25. Bangalore closing in on its target.. with so many rainy days.. overcast weather during SWM.. Awesome weather in late April and May… A 11cm 3-hour storm..temperatures always lik 27/20 …Phenomenal job by bangalore this year even without NEM..

    Even athiramapattinam doing so well.. what happened to chennai.. it was in the lead before.. now so many stations closing in

  26. Where shall we go and bang our head against this injustice?.. look at kochi last 10 years october..

    2001- 48cm
    2002- 46cm
    2003- 49cm
    2004- 62cm
    2005- 45cm
    2006- 55cm
    2007- 42cm
    2008- 30cm
    2009- 12cm (more than chennai in this year too 😦 )

  27. Mangalore,Mangalore AP, Honavar, Shirali all of them above 400cm.. chennai’s latitude more or less equal to mangalore.. i hate western ghats 😐

  28. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.6N
    90.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM EAST OF
    VISAKHPATNAM, INDIA, AND HAS MOVED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
    OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
    PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND CONFINED
    MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). THIS IS EVIDENT FROM A 141458Z METOP-A MICROWAVE
    IMAGERY. THE STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS, DERIVED FROM SHIP AND BUOY
    REPORTS, ARE ALONG THE PERIMETER OF THE LLCC – CHARACTERISTIC OF A
    CLASSIC MONSOON DEPRESSION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
    HIMALAYAS IN A ZONE OF MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    (30-35 KNOTS). THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN FACTOR INHIBITNG FURTHER
    DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
    ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
    TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
    SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR

  29. the 97 B deep depression seems to change its land fall point its almost making a land fall at srikakulam in north coastal andhra,less likely to hit gopalpur as a land fall

  30. Gopalpur has 43.2 mm yesterday, bhuvaneswar 40 mm and kolkata 24 mm but no rains in vizag. So, must be raining there today

  31. dharmapuri, kuppam 4cm..tirupattur 3cm as i said sterday…there was a super squall der it seems …day b4 sterday to tpt has got 2cm

  32. ya tirupattur is just bangalore adivaram πŸ™‚

    some times palani,kodaikanal get rain together.. somethin lik dat πŸ˜€

  33. outlook till oct 20 😐 😐 😐

    fairly widespread rains in west coast and north east..

    aah its time for NEM 😦

  34. This Octover is very similar to October 2009.

    NEM will be pretty late end of october and might not be strong.. Rains only in Nov if we are lucky

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