98 thoughts on “Wait for NEM continues

  1. Time for some quiz:

    1. Which is the nearest big city(population greater than 25 million) to all of madurai,tuticorin,tirunelveli,coimbatore,salem and erode?

    2. Which part of India has June as its rainiest month?

    3. On wat river sathanur dam(tiruvanna malai dist) built?

    4. Why is samba cultivation more widespread than kuruvai cultivation in delta districts?

    5. which dist is termed as dist of lakes in TN?

  2. BBC has forecasted Rain from Chennai all the way till Mumbai for a narrow strip of 400 kms – 50 Kms! on Friday day time!

    Rest of the days either cloudy or slight drizzle or clear. According to them the low may cross close to Paradip!

  3. After all the concerns of early rain/NEM, its now Oct 11 and yesterday was horrid and looked like it was an extended summer. Seems strangely cloudy today – lets see if the weather improves.

  4. Bangalore AP just 3.5 mm while Bangalore city 17.5mm 😦 Bangalore AP doing consistently badly.. 😦 yearly aggregate Bang AP 71cm Bang city 84 cm…

  5. @KN, in ur first ques, is tat 25million really, 25million = 2.5crores, Not even Delhi nd mumbai are so populated in Inida.. I think u are thinkin of 25 lakhs…

  6. guys gud news!!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ™‚ gfs model showing onset of nem around 26th!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! πŸ˜€ with a low with nerly surge above!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!………. πŸ˜‰

  7. Shyam,

    I hope u r rite. But GFS beyong 4-5 days is highly unreliable.
    Moreover we dont know how the MJO dry phase is going to affect our monsoon

  8. Southwest monsoon has further withdrawn from more parts of Bihar, some parts of Jharkhand and
    Chhattisgarh, some more parts of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat. The withdrawal line of southwest monsoon
    passes through Forbeesgunj, Dhanbad, Champa, Seoni, Khandwa, Bhaunagar, Porbandar Lat. 21Β°N/Long. 65Β°E
    and Lat. 21Β°N/Long 60Β°E.

  9. Doesn’t the SWM has to withdraw completely before NEM sets in. With the pace its going at, it will take another month.

  10. Answers to Kn’s quiz
    ————————-

    1.Bengloor

    2.Definitely pradeeps hometown kuzhithurai,tvpuram…widely speakin..southern n south central keralam

    3. Thne pennai aaru

    4.Dunno

    5. Don say kanchipuram πŸ™‚

  11. A low pressure system is likely to develop and might start affecting north tamil nadu and south andhra coast from wednesday.

    in the meanwhile good rain bearing clouds approaching from south east i.e. from mahapalipuram. already heavy rains for the past 15 minutes and the clouds are slowly moving north towards chennai. we might experience showers in another 2 hours.

    any other opinion ??

    ss.

  12. @Kar 1,2,3 right.. ya 5 is right too K puram πŸ˜€

    4. Kuruvai season June-Sept depends largely on Kaveri and borewells, Samba season depends on kaveri,borewells and mainly on the NEM which is bountiful in those areas.. so all the rain fed lands join the league in samba πŸ™‚

  13. From a blog:

    increase in the temperature i felt in Bangalore after coming back from Coorg was making me uncomfortable. β€˜Feels like summer’ i uttered, walking to lunch in the scorching sun.

    I read a news article that the rise in temperature at the end of South-West monsoon before the onset of North-East monsoon was usual, and higher the rise in temperature more the downpour would be. Couldn’t agree more, after the showers on Wednesday night.

  14. OMG..North east winds not even in sight for the next 2 weeks. South westerlies still dominating.
    Accuweather even says re advance of south west monsoon into eastern UP and Bihar.
    Something is horribly going wrong for us

  15. ya last year was way better.. wind was eastern atleast…

    dats y things should happen just normally lik bangalore this time.. everything was normal…

  16. have patience. We will have a normal NEM. It will set late oct. But main rains will be in november and december and even jan 11

  17. Imd has announced about the formation of low pressure system in east central bay. it has to shift its position to south by another 3 degrees to get rains for North tamil nadu coast. Otherwise we have to wait for at least a week to get back to the usual wind pattern. Right from yesterday night we could realize a change in the wind pattern from south west to south east, slowly giving way of north easterilies from bay.

    ss.

  18. omg Uthiramerur 9cm.. villupuram 8cm

    Walajah 1cm, vellore 4mm… as usual since they are near.. both stations have got rains

  19. hi kea guys how r u all?seems to be nt satisfied with no onset of north east monsoon,dont worry for every state good time comes.hey u know vijayawada is??????its like summer here and temperature is 38 degrees,scorching sun but cool breeze even vijayawada waiting for north east monsoon as it lies on the coromandel coast and is the joining point for north coastal andhra and south coastal andhra,we cant even stand for a second in scorching sun here its horrible.

  20. as its center point for north and coastal andhra vijayawada railway junction is the transit point for many south central railway lines and the more the bay of bengal gets heat more the activity,so i think definitely tamilnadu will receive good rains atleast after 15 days

  21. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0N
    88.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 88.7E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF
    VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATIONS CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
    SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
    AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
    ADDITIONALLY, A BUOY OBSERVATION, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM TO THE WEST,
    IS INDICATING SURFACE LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
    PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS REMAINS POOR

  22. Hi Kea
    These Low pressue systems which are drifting towards AP/Orissa / Bdesh- will they cool the waters in these part of BOB and thus ensure that endoct /early Nov systems steer towards TN?

  23. The well marked low pressure area is currently experiencing some shear in the southern part of system.meanwhile the northern part looks promising with organised convection flaring under decreasing shear.since the shear is decreasing it should become a depression by tomorrow night.

  24. gopal, cooling of water is no way related to steering of systems.The movement of storm depends on the other weather systems surrounding it.The reason why the storms form in north bay for last few weeks is because failure in movement of monsoon trough down south which is inhibiting the storm development in south bay.The trough is expected to move south once the nem progresses.It should happen by end of october.even if the storm forms in south bay its movement is totally depends on the strength of ridge(high pressure) in north or the other weather systems surrounding it.

  25. The department, an official said, was yet to declare the withdrawal of southwest monsoon as one more system is expected in about ten days.

    Usually, the southwest monsoon continues till October second week. Only if the wind direction changes from the present westerlies to easterlies, could the onset of the northeast monsoon, which brings the major share of annual rainfall to the city, be expected, said Y.E.A.Raj, Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre.

    β€œThere have been instances when the northeast monsoon had set in as early as October 4 as in 1999. But, we are not anticipating its onset for another week. We are able to predict the weather one week in advance due to the dynamic weather model,” he said.

  26. bad news

    MJO dry phase begins on 13tth Oct (that is today)

    It is expected to weaken only after Nov. 1st.

    We were actually in wet phase until yesterday. (but no monsoon)

  27. The low will cross North AP and reach Mumbai via Nagpur..at the same time, a new low will enter Bay from China sea and move towards NE!

    Lots of (unnecessary) things goin to happen..at the cost of our NEM.. 😦

  28. Tuticorin at 39 degree!! my god.. seriously bad….

    Usually there wouldnt be vast difference between october and november for chennai.. but last 2 years november was ruling and this year too seems to follow suit

  29. Is this October? Mercury has crossed 35 degrees steadily and Chennai is reeling under yet another dry spell and heat wave. Rainfall activity is zero.

    When can we expect some NEM rains finally? November December or only next year?

  30. Agree with Guru – lousy weather really for Oct. Forget the rains, forget the monsoons – if the temp would ease up, it’d be much better.

  31. Vijay, too early to say NEM wont be good.

    I would wait until mid-end November to make the conclusion. For sure not much or if any rain is possible before 10th Nov.

  32. Since we had a comparatively good South West Monsoon, does this mean the NEM will be poor this year? All the predictions right from gfs, bbc, foreca.com have their own way of predicting rainfall.

    When can we expect rainfall in Chennai? Looks like the horrendous wait to see rainy days still continues unabatedly.

    Experts views most welcome!

  33. Guru, this is gfs forecast.the below link i have given is the predicted forecast on oct 20th which shows rains over entire t.n coast.but gfs after +120hrs is not perfectly accurate 😦

  34. GFS predicts moderate rainfall for entire TN coast from 19th..
    Also it has removed the earlier prediction of another low coming from China sea into NE..now its not goin to enter the Bay and hence no more disturbances to our NEM..conditions luks gud after this cyclone landfall in AP.. πŸ™‚
    Widespread moderate rainfall expected in entire Bay and coasts although with the existence of W/SW/NW winds for sometime!

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