62 thoughts on “Early morning drizzles, clearing later

  1. Omgggg guys.. pray for a normal september(that is no more rains here on for this month).. for the last ten years an above normal september has led to a disaster in NEM… in almost all cases… so say NO to september dominance….

    Year September-success rate NEM-Success Rate
    2000 +50% -51%
    2001 +18% +40%
    2002 -14% +28%
    2003 +55% -60%
    2004 +121% -26%
    2005 -10% +173%
    2006 -4% +16%
    2007 +165% -19%
    2008 +3% +23%
    2009 -21% +18%

  2. “A good september leads to a bad NEM, a normal or below normal september ensures good NEM” – All the given years’ data substantiate that… so lets not hope for further september rains.. as not even ONE year’s data contradicts the statement

  3. KN,

    dont worry this year is an exception. All models lead to a normal NEM. in fact its expected to continue until early 2011. I am predicting 180 cm this year

  4. but u saw last 10 years stats kea? 😦

    september and NEM enjoy an inverse relationship.. its statiscally a risk to have a good sept for NEM.. lets hope for the best..

    i wish we could get more than 200cm which is entirely possible as last time nagapattinam got it with not much support from SWM

  5. omggg.. rofl… the best comic sentence of 2010 in todays imd chennai report

    “Southwest monsoon has been vigorous over Tamil Nadu active over Kerala.”

  6. Karthik should a happy/sad man 🙂

    Tirupattur – 7cm
    Tambaram NIL

    sri harikota (Sullurpet) has got 12cm !!! just 80km from chennai 😦

  7. I was teasing karthik whether he was in tiruvalla or tirupattur to always see the rains in face book 😦

    at the end of the day
    tirupattur 7cm
    tiruvalla 3cm

  8. This year is a wettest year! My friend in Siliguri told me that, in September, cloud will clear and there won’t be rain as the rains will shift down towards Tropic of Cancer, but this time, it is raining almost a daily basis.

    Also, I am wondering why Radar is not showing the overcast sky and shows only thunder or low level clouds! can any one expatiate?

  9. @kn n narayanan,
    S tbm received overni8 rain amounting to 5mm..it got 25mm the day b4…n not surprised abt tpt 7cm..dis is very normal..n tpt has a long way to go to complete normal sept rain of 20cm..it is at 12 now.

  10. @jon
    wow just tstorms cannot believe it but wat ab the withdrawal of swm and nem???????????? 😦 y so late?????????????? 😮

  11. Rain yesterday

    Kalakurichi – 12.5cm
    Tirupattur – 7.2cm
    Tiruttani – 5.8cm
    Tirupati – 5.2cm

    Source – IMD pune

  12. If we calculate the rain of chennai n chennai AP from IMD daily reports..it stands like dis-

    Chennai – 64cm
    Chennai AP – 61cm

    it shows how much actual rainfall can be more in areas where we get approximate rainfall from IMD daily reports

  13. “A good september leads to a bad NEM, a normal or below normal september ensures good NEM”

    Don say this with an individual station

    Lake averages

    2005 september – 20cm
    1996 september – 18cm
    1997 september – 30cm

    these are the biggest monsoon years for Tamil nadu in recent history

  14. At the end of the day we just look into chennai city’s figures… so we are analysing impact of september for just one station.. becos lakes consistently get 15cm + rainfall in september irrespective of withdrawal of SWM, absence of lows 🙂

  15. Bangalore AP just 5mm.. 😦 city 27mm

    Bangalore AP due for a big one but i doubt whether tat will happen.. every year Bang AP gets less than city.. 😦 10cm diff between city and AP for SWM.. 3.6cm diff overall for the year..

  16. @Kn…don talk nonsense…september is the most active month of low pressure in north AP coast..thats why its the rainiest month for coastal AP,rayalaseema as well as Tamil nadu..n u cant predict weather with the averages of one station…such foolish thing to do..u shud take the avergae of a region with a particular radius….bcos durin a season one station can be unlucky all the time n the other can be lucky all the time

  17. @Kn..don flood this blog with wrong infos.as mr.dhinakar said from september the rainfall activity shifts its base to below tropic of cancer..n SWM withdraws from peninsula usually after oct 10 only its only for NW india that it withdraws in september

  18. i thought it was from heavy thunderstorm activity…but as vinod told me ..widespread rainfall occurs in Tn durin september thta to from NWly direction bcos of weak troughs that form along TN coast..n that is why september is the only month of active SWM in tamil nadu..only month where we get system induced rainfall..whereas the other three months of june-august is from thunderstorm activity mostly…but 2010 is an exception we are getitn system induced rian in all the four months of SWM

  19. ok u are tellin total crap.. every station is unique… otherwise there wouldnt be 50cm gap between colaba and santa cruz annd 10 cm gap between chennai chennai AP.. try to appreciate the uniqueness of a station and

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