kar, the years we got more than 140mm in sep, we have had a disappointing NEM. i always believe a hot Sep is good for our monsoon. Where is martin there days, he will disagree.
Rainfall around Chennai from 01.01.10 – 19.08.10
1. REDHILLS – 74.2 cm
2. CHOLAVARAM – 73.5 cm
3. TAMARAIPAKKAM – 70.7 cm
4. NUNGAMBAKKAM – 61.8 cm
5. KORATTUR – 61.4 cm
6. POONAMALEE – 58 cm
7. POONDI – 53.4 cm
8. MEENAMBAKKAM – 52.8 cm
9. MARINA – 45 cm
10.CHEMBARAM BAKKAM – 44.1 cm
11.GUINDY – 44 cm
12.SRIPERUMBUDUR – 40 cm
13.TAMBARAM – 33.8 cm
The wave which was persisting in south west bay is showing good organisation visible in latest satellite picture..It would develop into a low ..TN would get heavy rains from it..system should be watched for furthur organisation.
with the way IMD is doin their reporting 33cm is so high for tambaram…..tambaram was missed umpteen times…actual rainfall for tambaram for SWM itself is 43cm … with 11cm from laila…total rain is 54cm 😛
some models are already predicting it to be a low eg:BBC ..moreover whenever an area is surrounded by a persistant convection we can clearly infer that there are some kind of development possible.There was some sporadic convection in the same area of south west bay for more than 5 days and there was also a change in the wind direction in chennai from south west to easterly .These are clear indication of certain development in bay..IMD issues alert to a sytem only when if low level circulation is visible..IMD is not like national hurricane center who used to monitor any system right from small disturbance(wave).sometimes people who are close to system (like us) will get certain indication from nature which may not be available to IMD 🙂
@shyam some models are already predicting it to be a low eg:BBC ..moreover whenever an area is surrounded by a persistant convection we can clearly infer that there are some kind of development possible.There was some sporadic convection in the same area of south west bay for more than 5 days and there was also a change in the wind direction in chennai from south west to easterly .These are clear indication of certain development in bay..IMD issues alert to a sytem only when if low level circulation is visible..IMD is not like national hurricane center who used to monitor any system right from small disturbance(wave).sometimes people who are close to system (like us) will get certain indication from nature which may not be available to IMD 🙂
@jon our NEM is totally dependent on weather system so even a single system might lead to normal or above normal but it can be vice versa also ..anything is possible..
it not always hold ture but it had happened few times in the past .we had good SW monsoon but bad NEM 😦 ..hope it does not happen again.whats quite alarming is that even the western pacific typhoon season looks calm..even hurricane season has not kicked off as expected..most of times these 2 seasons is somewhat indirectly related to NEM
Hate to be the harbinger of unhappy news. A study of correlation between NE and SW monsoons over a 100-year time period from 1877-1976 showed that there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between the two, i.e. more SW monsoon rain, lower NE monsoon rain.
Click on ‘PDF’ to read the full article. Well-written and simple language.
This is a statistical correlation. Does not necessarily mean that every time the SW monsoon is in excess, NE monsoon is deficient. The likelihood of that happening are high this year, but again it is not definitive.
So, here’s to hoping that this is not one of those years? I personally feel that as long as the annual rainfall is normal, it’s ok…
Wow…..radar ANIMATION shows heavy rains clouds forming in sea and movin west into land…now we can see that with pondi….hope fully we can also get something 🙂
r those red dots moving in a N direction. I am checking on mobile and it seems so. I am in my sons sports and if it does come it will affect before this think finishes
Kea its movin in NW direction it mi8 reach at the max chengalpet….only prob is if some other mass pops of near chennai coast..it can becos lots of rain clouds ere 😀
now a sudden thunder seed has formed over Chennai. & another is forming over Pulicat area and moving towards chennai. East cost road thunder pattern is again shifting towards chennai and a small seed is exactly over west toward porur.
hey guys cheer up!!!!!!! 😉 sr ramanan said that our monsoon will be above normal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the models would chande i think!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂
Had the privelege of seeing the heaviest rainfall this season in tambaram…poured ultimate for 30 mins ….my rain gauges say 20mm exactly now..i dunno if its ri8 bcos i din take evaporation into account!…it poured n poured n poured 😀
KeaWeather Archives 
2000-09
———
The years from which i know chennai better..
August average – 99mm
September Average – 143mm
August is the wettest month for chennai …big time LOL 🙂
And that too september was wetter than august for 8 out of 10 years….KN u need some serious rethinking …u have a very wrong illuson 😉
BBc models predicting a system to develop close to TN by this weekend
kar, the years we got more than 140mm in sep, we have had a disappointing NEM. i always believe a hot Sep is good for our monsoon. Where is martin there days, he will disagree.
I agree with kea.. In 2005 september was very hot. the NEM turned out to be bountiful
li8 drizzles in tambaram
radar is not updating
Hi vijay how was the rain sterday in madambakkm???
hi kar….its fair enough
i think it has rained more than 50mm but the imd as usual done the same mistake again with tbm
@kar till the drizzles cont in ur area????????
no no it was li8 drizzles stopped long bak 🙂
reason why Tiruvallur distrivt got holiday—ponnamale 4cm,red hills 5cm 😦 ….
tamaraipakkam 6cm 😦
@kar which std ru studying?
expecting lots of rain activity toni8 at least over interior TN
@vijay 11th….. and u?
im working yar
tirupattur has got 1cm n the rain was not in evening or ni8…it rained from 8-10 in the morning it seems
Kar,even chennai city got 7.5cm,why they dint declare holiday for chennai dist?
@joel..even tbm got 56mm 😦 ..but thing is tbm falls on the edge of kpuram distrcit 😦 …
Rainfall around Chennai from 01.01.10 – 19.08.10
1. REDHILLS – 74.2 cm
2. CHOLAVARAM – 73.5 cm
3. TAMARAIPAKKAM – 70.7 cm
4. NUNGAMBAKKAM – 61.8 cm
5. KORATTUR – 61.4 cm
6. POONAMALEE – 58 cm
7. POONDI – 53.4 cm
8. MEENAMBAKKAM – 52.8 cm
9. MARINA – 45 cm
10.CHEMBARAM BAKKAM – 44.1 cm
11.GUINDY – 44 cm
12.SRIPERUMBUDUR – 40 cm
13.TAMBARAM – 33.8 cm
Tbm the lowest
😦
The wave which was persisting in south west bay is showing good organisation visible in latest satellite picture..It would develop into a low ..TN would get heavy rains from it..system should be watched for furthur organisation.
Bangalore has just received 224mm from june 1st till now which is -44% than the normal 🙂
cloud movememnt changes to east….we shud get rains from east(sea) toni8 🙂
@vinodh
how u r saying that a low might form over sw bob without imds approval man???????? 😎
OMG!..red hilss 74cm 😮
So no water scarcity for chennai atleast for now 🙂
@jon,
Actual rainfall for tambaram is more than minambakkam 😛
My rain guage readings from june 1 is 429mm
Kar, Tbm only 33cm 🙂 mina way ahead
with the way IMD is doin their reporting 33cm is so high for tambaram…..tambaram was missed umpteen times…actual rainfall for tambaram for SWM itself is 43cm … with 11cm from laila…total rain is 54cm 😛
Kar, but the official verdict is only 33cm :smile:.im sure its more than 33cm but imds calcutlation only counts 😦
hmm ..jon ckh out dis page..
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AooAUH-PNgFTdFhTV1V5eThmU0ppUzBfQ1hQYThaaGc&hl=en#gid=0
some models are already predicting it to be a low eg:BBC ..moreover whenever an area is surrounded by a persistant convection we can clearly infer that there are some kind of development possible.There was some sporadic convection in the same area of south west bay for more than 5 days and there was also a change in the wind direction in chennai from south west to easterly .These are clear indication of certain development in bay..IMD issues alert to a sytem only when if low level circulation is visible..IMD is not like national hurricane center who used to monitor any system right from small disturbance(wave).sometimes people who are close to system (like us) will get certain indication from nature which may not be available to IMD 🙂
@shyam some models are already predicting it to be a low eg:BBC ..moreover whenever an area is surrounded by a persistant convection we can clearly infer that there are some kind of development possible.There was some sporadic convection in the same area of south west bay for more than 5 days and there was also a change in the wind direction in chennai from south west to easterly .These are clear indication of certain development in bay..IMD issues alert to a sytem only when if low level circulation is visible..IMD is not like national hurricane center who used to monitor any system right from small disturbance(wave).sometimes people who are close to system (like us) will get certain indication from nature which may not be available to IMD 🙂
btw guys noticed cloud movemnet has changed to east ???????…anybody…i can see it clearly with clouds near moon 🙂 😀
@karthik yes the cloud movement has changed :).
I think Easterly cloud movement signifies a upper air circulation not sure of it .if it continues we can expect early morning showers
@jon….din see that doc yet?
Kar, Sry i couldnt access that file im in my mobile now.ill check it out tomo
Omg, looks like its going to be monsoon failure this year for t.n http://ow.ly/i/3ih8
@jon our NEM is totally dependent on weather system so even a single system might lead to normal or above normal but it can be vice versa also ..anything is possible..
pretty organised cloud mass near srilanka linked to a weather system.
But usually i suspect good sw monsoon leads to poor ne monsoon as kn says 😦 😦
it not always hold ture but it had happened few times in the past .we had good SW monsoon but bad NEM 😦 ..hope it does not happen again.whats quite alarming is that even the western pacific typhoon season looks calm..even hurricane season has not kicked off as expected..most of times these 2 seasons is somewhat indirectly related to NEM
Our monsoon going to fail
no rains fo tonite. My son has sports tomorrow morning and if it rains it will be a big disaster with a wet ground.
Long time lurker, haven’t posted much.
Hate to be the harbinger of unhappy news. A study of correlation between NE and SW monsoons over a 100-year time period from 1877-1976 showed that there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between the two, i.e. more SW monsoon rain, lower NE monsoon rain.
Here’s the link to the article (published in 1983): http://bit.ly/dmDtuP
Click on ‘PDF’ to read the full article. Well-written and simple language.
This is a statistical correlation. Does not necessarily mean that every time the SW monsoon is in excess, NE monsoon is deficient. The likelihood of that happening are high this year, but again it is not definitive.
So, here’s to hoping that this is not one of those years? I personally feel that as long as the annual rainfall is normal, it’s ok…
Lots of rain clouds everywhere.looks like a ne monsoon day
BBC Forecasts very heavy rains near chennai by Monday night..
COLA GFS also echoes similar views..
Lets wait and watch
Wow…..radar ANIMATION shows heavy rains clouds forming in sea and movin west into land…now we can see that with pondi….hope fully we can also get something 🙂
cloud mvmnt is ESE wowo 😀
Guys guys..jus chk out raar animation….it will give a close shove to chengalpet wih its movemnt 🙂
r those red dots moving in a N direction. I am checking on mobile and it seems so. I am in my sons sports and if it does come it will affect before this think finishes
Kea its movin in NW direction it mi8 reach at the max chengalpet….only prob is if some other mass pops of near chennai coast..it can becos lots of rain clouds ere 😀
THat heavy rain crosses coast between chengalpet and puducherry 😀
Hope fully expecting heavy rain from SE today..im leavin to skool 😉
surface pressure of chennai is going as low as 1002 mb on monday
Now raining in adambakkam area 🙂
Now raining near Kasi theatre and surrounding areas.
This time, let us see if Chennai AP scores more mms of rainfall than the city!
Nagapattinam flooded..heavy rains from yesterday night..
very very dark in Chennai now!!! rain in many places..a low mite form near Nagai this weekend..
Heavy rains in West Mambalam
The Sun is still out here in Besant Nagar 😦
Heavy rains pushing from ecr toward chennai se
dark clouds, had slight drizzle. What chances of rain in nungumbakkam? DB sports going on and i could see dark clouds all over and sun in spots
Kea its coming soon from se ere its very dark south east n started to rain showery now
We had very heavy rains for 15 mins in T.nagar
Rains started here in annanagar now
very dark now
Pouring here in annanagar
Heavr rains in Ambattur
now a sudden thunder seed has formed over Chennai. & another is forming over Pulicat area and moving towards chennai. East cost road thunder pattern is again shifting towards chennai and a small seed is exactly over west toward porur.
Its getting dark in Besant Nagar, still no rain here.
nothing here. In fact winds are blowing clouds away
heavy rains in tambaram
no rain ere vry disappointing again had mod shower earlier
right from last week, upper level wind pattern has changed to east – south east. But, lower level winds are still west – south west.
@jon very heavy rain lashes @tbm and madambakkam b4 2.5 hrs 2-3 cm approx
am in thoothukudi now light drizzles now wat hap in chennai
Long range forecast of NE..saw a member contributing this article..Kea / Martin- yr expert comments?This is worrying.. http://ow.ly/i/3ih8
This year west bengal bangladesh gonna hav rich nem 😦
Even in http://www.apcc21.org/en/maps it shows that NEM rains will be less in oct and nov..But, Aug and sept will be bountiful from SWM
http://www.apcc21.org/en/maps# 😀
hey guys cheer up!!!!!!! 😉 sr ramanan said that our monsoon will be above normal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the models would chande i think!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂
bright sunshine & heavy drizzles here in ananagar
http://ow.ly/i/3jek 😀 😀
@thunderjove when did ramanan say
Had the privelege of seeing the heaviest rainfall this season in tambaram…poured ultimate for 30 mins ….my rain gauges say 20mm exactly now..i dunno if its ri8 bcos i din take evaporation into account!…it poured n poured n poured 😀
@rocker
few 10 to 15days back he said!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂
heard of gud showers over tirupattur again by around 11 today
radar picks up rain to east in sea….but cld mvmnt not sure 😦
kar
cloud movement east i saw the radar animation now only!!!!!! 🙂 also mornings storm has moved away wnw towards horizon now!!!!!!!!! 😉
can absorb sli8 easterly mvmnt
I can see tstorms over distant s
radar shows very heavy rain fall between salem and puducherry 😦
Guys,
Why this sudden doom!!???…we are gonna see lots of rains in august and september…NEM is quite far away…and lets speak abt it after once it sets in
AT LAST AN EXCELLENT PRODUCT FROM IMD
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm
surface rianfall intensity showin all the important places 😀