141 thoughts on “Chance of some showers

  1. 2000-09
    ———

    The years from which i know chennai better..

    August average – 99mm

    September Average – 143mm

    August is the wettest month for chennai …big time LOL 🙂

  2. And that too september was wetter than august for 8 out of 10 years….KN u need some serious rethinking …u have a very wrong illuson 😉

  3. kar, the years we got more than 140mm in sep, we have had a disappointing NEM. i always believe a hot Sep is good for our monsoon. Where is martin there days, he will disagree.

  4. Rainfall around Chennai from 01.01.10 – 19.08.10
    1. REDHILLS – 74.2 cm
    2. CHOLAVARAM – 73.5 cm
    3. TAMARAIPAKKAM – 70.7 cm
    4. NUNGAMBAKKAM – 61.8 cm
    5. KORATTUR – 61.4 cm
    6. POONAMALEE – 58 cm
    7. POONDI – 53.4 cm
    8. MEENAMBAKKAM – 52.8 cm
    9. MARINA – 45 cm
    10.CHEMBARAM BAKKAM – 44.1 cm
    11.GUINDY – 44 cm
    12.SRIPERUMBUDUR – 40 cm
    13.TAMBARAM – 33.8 cm

  5. The wave which was persisting in south west bay is showing good organisation visible in latest satellite picture..It would develop into a low ..TN would get heavy rains from it..system should be watched for furthur organisation.

  6. with the way IMD is doin their reporting 33cm is so high for tambaram…..tambaram was missed umpteen times…actual rainfall for tambaram for SWM itself is 43cm … with 11cm from laila…total rain is 54cm 😛

  7. some models are already predicting it to be a low eg:BBC ..moreover whenever an area is surrounded by a persistant convection we can clearly infer that there are some kind of development possible.There was some sporadic convection in the same area of south west bay for more than 5 days and there was also a change in the wind direction in chennai from south west to easterly .These are clear indication of certain development in bay..IMD issues alert to a sytem only when if low level circulation is visible..IMD is not like national hurricane center who used to monitor any system right from small disturbance(wave).sometimes people who are close to system (like us) will get certain indication from nature which may not be available to IMD 🙂

  8. @shyam some models are already predicting it to be a low eg:BBC ..moreover whenever an area is surrounded by a persistant convection we can clearly infer that there are some kind of development possible.There was some sporadic convection in the same area of south west bay for more than 5 days and there was also a change in the wind direction in chennai from south west to easterly .These are clear indication of certain development in bay..IMD issues alert to a sytem only when if low level circulation is visible..IMD is not like national hurricane center who used to monitor any system right from small disturbance(wave).sometimes people who are close to system (like us) will get certain indication from nature which may not be available to IMD 🙂

  9. btw guys noticed cloud movemnet has changed to east ???????…anybody…i can see it clearly with clouds near moon 🙂 😀

  10. I think Easterly cloud movement signifies a upper air circulation not sure of it .if it continues we can expect early morning showers

  11. @jon our NEM is totally dependent on weather system so even a single system might lead to normal or above normal but it can be vice versa also ..anything is possible..

  12. it not always hold ture but it had happened few times in the past .we had good SW monsoon but bad NEM 😦 ..hope it does not happen again.whats quite alarming is that even the western pacific typhoon season looks calm..even hurricane season has not kicked off as expected..most of times these 2 seasons is somewhat indirectly related to NEM

  13. Long time lurker, haven’t posted much.

    Hate to be the harbinger of unhappy news. A study of correlation between NE and SW monsoons over a 100-year time period from 1877-1976 showed that there is a statistically significant inverse correlation between the two, i.e. more SW monsoon rain, lower NE monsoon rain.

    Here’s the link to the article (published in 1983): http://bit.ly/dmDtuP

    Click on ‘PDF’ to read the full article. Well-written and simple language.

    This is a statistical correlation. Does not necessarily mean that every time the SW monsoon is in excess, NE monsoon is deficient. The likelihood of that happening are high this year, but again it is not definitive.

    So, here’s to hoping that this is not one of those years? I personally feel that as long as the annual rainfall is normal, it’s ok…

  14. BBC Forecasts very heavy rains near chennai by Monday night..
    COLA GFS also echoes similar views..
    Lets wait and watch

  15. Wow…..radar ANIMATION shows heavy rains clouds forming in sea and movin west into land…now we can see that with pondi….hope fully we can also get something 🙂

  16. r those red dots moving in a N direction. I am checking on mobile and it seems so. I am in my sons sports and if it does come it will affect before this think finishes

  17. Kea its movin in NW direction it mi8 reach at the max chengalpet….only prob is if some other mass pops of near chennai coast..it can becos lots of rain clouds ere 😀

  18. dark clouds, had slight drizzle. What chances of rain in nungumbakkam? DB sports going on and i could see dark clouds all over and sun in spots

  19. now a sudden thunder seed has formed over Chennai. & another is forming over Pulicat area and moving towards chennai. East cost road thunder pattern is again shifting towards chennai and a small seed is exactly over west toward porur.

  20. right from last week, upper level wind pattern has changed to east – south east. But, lower level winds are still west – south west.

  21. hey guys cheer up!!!!!!! 😉 sr ramanan said that our monsoon will be above normal!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! the models would chande i think!!!!!!!!!!!!! 🙂

  22. Had the privelege of seeing the heaviest rainfall this season in tambaram…poured ultimate for 30 mins ….my rain gauges say 20mm exactly now..i dunno if its ri8 bcos i din take evaporation into account!…it poured n poured n poured 😀

  23. kar
    cloud movement east i saw the radar animation now only!!!!!! 🙂 also mornings storm has moved away wnw towards horizon now!!!!!!!!! 😉

  24. Guys,

    Why this sudden doom!!???…we are gonna see lots of rains in august and september…NEM is quite far away…and lets speak abt it after once it sets in

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