127 thoughts on “First rains from cyclone Laila reaches chennai

  1. IMD 17:30 update

    The cyclonic storm β€˜LAILA’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010 over southwest and adjoining southeast & westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 13.00N and long. 84.00E, about 400 km east of Chennai, 550 km south-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1200 km south-southwest of Kolkata.

    The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Visakhapatnam by early hours of 20th May 2010.

  2. i didnt expect anything for us from this system. Even this drizzle/rain is a bonus. I think we should have got atleast 1 – 2 mm by now. I am out, will confirm when i reach home

  3. only few drops.new instrument required to measure.we are lulled to sleep over the cyclone.in CHENNAI. probably likely to get intensified unaware anytime. SALIGRAMAM CANAL is going to be a villainn as usual.none to be blamed.

  4. Laila already at 13.0 N. That is same latitude as chennai. Whatever we get today is all we will get. Storm moving N-W. The more the north direction, the more away from us

  5. As per IMD >25 cms rain possible for noth tn

    Under the influence of this system, north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls (25 cms or more) and isolated extremely heavy falls during next 48 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today, the 18th night. It may increase to 115-125 kmph at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.

  6. Stopped drizzling completely on tnagar. No wind. Sky seems to be clearing up. Wats the latest on ‘Laila’. Has it gone away?

  7. It drizzled for an hour here in purasawalkam till 6:30, but it is not raining now and cool winds are blowing, temp may be around 27-28c..

  8. When I look up the radar for the past one hour or so absolutely no drizzling to the radius of about 60 KMS on all directions. This is really a bad news. But still if the system lies practically stationery, this situation would occur.

    The system looks like moving away from chennai ( about 400 kms far away to bring good rains) but still going by the cloud cover, we may expect brief showers once the system moves a degree to the west. let us hope. chennai always eluded like this. This is reasonably a good system and we hope for better.

    Interested readers can access to radar which gives very good idea about the rain pattern then and there. Now IMD updates at least every half an hour.

    ss

  9. Lik gfs prediction of non cyclone thanks suresh for tat link i ve bookmarked very useful dint kno every half hour update till now

  10. Bad news current position retraced to 13.3n 83.15e which is east of us so wat eva we got in d evening was all tat we get 😦 of laila

  11. if we look in to longtitude 83.15 is not all that far away. if it pushes by one degree west, we might get heavy showers, as normally 82 longtitude and 13.5 latitude is a very perfect position to get good rains for chennai, and chingleput districts. Considering the fact that the huge cloud mass gathered in bay still useful rains may not be ruled out.

    but radar shows very weak rain pattern till 50 kms east of chennai. but hardly few minutes make lot of difference.

    next 12 hours could be crucial. i only expect the system to weaken a bit to wash ashore in tamil nadu coast as well to bring good rains for another 36 hours.

    any views on this.??

  12. skies have rapidly cleared up..no signs of any wind, this has been a premature end to what was really a promising cyclonic storm. Time and again chennai has been betrayed by these kind of hyped storms

  13. JTWC update

    REMARKS:
    181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 83.0E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST
    OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION AND TRACKED
    WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
    WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TIGHTENED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
    181050Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
    ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T3.0 FROM KNES, AND
    SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS
    TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
    SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    NORTH-WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO
    NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
    MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA
    AFTER TAU 36. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN,
    EGRR AND ECMWF) ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. GFS AND
    WBAR ARE LEFT OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. TC LAILA IS FORECAST TO
    INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 36 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SOUTH OF KAKINADA,
    THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF INDIA, ALTHOUGH
    MAINTAINING TC INTENSITY DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE
    FROM THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY WEAKEN INTO A
    TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT CROSSES INTO BANGLADESH BY TAU 120.
    MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
    AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//

  14. 8.15 PM Radar picks up showers around 70 KMS east of chennai – a welcome feature.

    This system might fool meteroligsts and take a curve and cross nellore or even weaken to bring some good rains to chennai and south andhra coastal areas. let us see.

  15. jtwc still says very much active, but the signs are dipping as we see, quite confusing, also strange to see the expected landfall south of kakinada..any suggestion on the impact to chennai?

  16. latest radar picture further strengthening the showers and also moving towards chennai. now just at 50 KMS east/north east of chennai, rains commenced in open sea.

    a good change in the last 2 hours.

    ss

  17. Thanks SS for sharing this good news..we are all keeping our fingers crossed…chennai needs to benifit from this storm. we have all forgotten the last effective storm that hit chennai..hope this will cheer all of us

  18. is there any chance of rain in chennai, atleast tonight? its very sad tat chennai has never benifted from any of the cyclones…

  19. Readers may please access to radar. Very good rains especially east, south east and north east of chennai ranging from 100 KMS to 250 KMS which signals the fact that chennai is very much under the rain ambit. could be within few minutes, showers might begin here also.

    ss.

  20. latest radar reading indicates drizzling approaching chennai with in minutes.

    already south of cuddalore and major parts of bay of bengal showers started and in fact about 100 kms away in sea, good showers are seen.

    may be within 10 to 15 minutes, chennai might get drizzle.

    ss

  21. karthik, i do remember Nisha, but it was not the destructive storm accompanied by very strong winds which chennai faced some 10 or 15 years back. But recently as u said nisha was quite good for chennai..One point to note is that deadly tropical storms frequently take off from the Bay of Bengal during India’s summer months. Hope this could be the deadliest

  22. LATEST radar says there were good showers just 20 KMS east /north east/south east of chennai.
    even chingleput started receiving showers.

    may in minutes chennai would get its next spell of showers. could last at leat for half an hour let us see.

  23. radar says rains commenced in nellore also. except for tiny pocket in chennai most of the areas covered by drizzling. at any moment, chennai would be covered in the rain segement.

    pl. see radar. interesting.

    ss

  24. please see the doppler products of IMD and in that please select surface rainfall intensity and under that look for maximum range wherein you can get up to 250 KMS on all four sides.

    really good .

    ss

  25. the latest reading says except chennai city, almost all the areas brought under drizzling or showers. hardly few minutes chennai could be covered.

    mahapalipuram to cuddalore showery.

    ss

  26. Lat sat shows storms popping up right over chennai so we can expect rains very soon.the cloud mass over south of us looks like a cyclone

  27. no rains….. pls dont comment anything if ur not sure… its all in vain . No signs of rain and clear skies prevail.

  28. Man i hate this thing repeating once again. I really wanted a powerful cyclone to come and cross the chennai coast.To see the fury and power of it and the torrents of rains. But just like every time chennai is left high and dry..

  29. Tiruchi, Nagapattinam and Madurai.. heavy thunderstorms… contrary to wat we thought.. interior TN getting more rain

  30. when will chennai start getting real worthy showers? It looks like things will fade away to see bright sunshine tomm morning. That would be the next dissapointing end to this tale

  31. ALL the other cities(including bangalore) got some rainfall from laila but chennai fails to record even a rainy day

  32. Why is kea.metsite.com (Chennai) stuck on the date 07/05/10 at 05:03:11 p.m? I have not been able to view current information since that day. I have tried clearing my browser cache and cookies many times, but still no success. I also tried using different browsers. No success.

    Will someone please advise why this is so?

  33. @ sunil, it is because, kea’s computer has met with some problem and he has to get it fixed for us to get the real time data…

  34. Very very disappointing figures from Laila.. unnecessary hype i feel.. as i said interior TN scored better..

    As of 11 30 PM

    Tiruchi – 27mm
    Cuddalore – 4mm (worst!!)
    Chennai AP – Traces
    Bangalore City – 1mm
    Chitadurga(Karnataka) – 13mm
    Nellore- traces

  35. its good to see these rains.. but i’m gonna sleep now hopin to wake up on a heavy rainy day.. good night…

  36. Its absolutely pouring in tnagar along with lightening and thunder. The sound of thunder is musi2 to ears. πŸ˜€

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