Rains might arrive by 7th or 8th

Almost now all models are concurring that the rains mite arrive by 7th.BBC model also predicting rains on 8th.IMD has kept a watch for an easterly wave by 7th.If things go well and gud,we mite be staring at the wettest jan for a long time.The highest rain last decade being 51mm in 2004.We are likely to cross this mark.

71 thoughts on “Rains might arrive by 7th or 8th

  1. There is not a single word mentioned about the possibility of rain in Dec 4th Businessline edition. Its all about the heavy FOG in north

  2. Dear All,

    The latest morning satellite picture shows erratic formation of convected clouds and it does not follow any given pattern. In view of that it may die out soon, unless otherwise organised cloud pattern develops soon to throw a low pressure in bay.

    This morning was quite chill at KDM, with very high clouds must be more than 30000 feet which would never cause even drizzle.

    The period between 8th of Jan and 15th of Jan still considered to be favourable period for rainfall, as most of the watery constellations would become stronger and moon is also positioning in a right position to cause sea disturbance.

    ss.

  3. Thunder.

    How you make out it is a dep by just seeing with naked eyes without getting any other related in puts. if your statement is right, possibly by this time, JTWC would have sent a report but till now reports on that.

    just because the clouds are gathered to a reasonable distance, unless otherwise whirl and circulation happens, we may not get any big weather system. clouds can disappear within minutes.

    let us see.

    ss

  4. Latest GFS say, the LLCC will whirr off towards Burma or Chittagong. And its outward appurtenance will impact here as a wave. As for I saw there is a minimum feeding to the system from South China Sea. Also, Currently there are two systems on prowl in down under in southern Indian Ocean. One at 10S and another at 12S, below bay of bengal. This will prevent formation of system here as these two are very strong. There may be question, Equator will form a ridge or boundary and the circulating mechanism is different on both hemispheres, that will be relevant argument, but, atmosphere and water is same also, at this point of time water will be warm below Equator and most of the warm currents will circulate within it and few or what is remaining will be above 0deg lat. I am watching this system for quite sometime, and based on that observation, my opine is, the easterly wave may not be strong nor make it into a cyclonic circulation apart from making it self into a LLCC. Also, the sun is climbing north, so the warm currents will travel south from north and from January, storm season will start in down under and moon too has started going down from north, which will surely have its tidal influences on the state of the sea. Most of the system that we experience here are only when moon is over northern hemisphere. Coming solar eclipse will occur when moon is over or nearer to equator of the Earth. Kindly toss your mind on this hypothesis.

    Dhinakar R Iyer

  5. guys, IMD has not yet called this system a low. I think it is way too soon to be calling it a depression. I guess even they are apprehensive to call it a low or depression so quick cos it does not look like it would strengthen too much and they are still calling it an easterly wave. And once it crosses the andaman sea & surrounding areas it cannot strengthen as the SST’s are really low.

  6. There was a prediction on MSN. Thursday 2mm Thursday night 0mm, Friday 0mm Friday night 12mm, Saturday 6mm Saturday night 89mm, Sunday 22mm Sunday night 8mm.

  7. according to my records highest 24 hour rain in Jan was 212.9 mm on 15th of 1915

    But IMD is saying now it is 66.9 on 13th of 1986

    FYI total jan rain in 1915 was 244 mm.

    Can somebody please say if 212.9 or 66.9 is correct?

  8. As per the latest satellite picture ( 11.30 AM IST) huge circular cloud mass prevailing over east of sri lanka may be about 750 KMS from srilankan east coast. In addition to that one more small cloud mass over south andaman sea.

    SST is quite favourable at that place & possibly IMD may announce a weak low pressure by this night.

    any opinion on that ?? But places around chennai recorded a minimum of 20 C and less, however the development/movement of system is still possible, as we get maximum high temperatures of above 28 C during day.

    SS.

  9. hello guys a happy new year to all. back from my holidays. My view on the developments taking place in the BOB and Indian Occean is that the system will become less marked as it progresses bcoz the prevailing severe cold conditions in North India and strong cool north-westerly winds will make the sea surface temperature more cooler and not enough to make it a LLCC grade.

  10. As usual Tamil Nadu rocks… the lowest minimum teperatures in south India were recorded in

    Udhagamandalam – 6 deg C
    Kodaikanal – 8 deg C

  11. Dear All,

    going by the satellite picture, there is a possibility a low pressure area is likely to form over south central bay may be around 500 KMs south east of chennai with in 36 to 48 hours. Some circular movement formation is already evident and the cloud mass is also quite big.

    let us see what is the IMD announcement before this evening.

    ss

  12. guys
    cheer up look what imd has said in mid day report.
    A low pressure area is likely to form over southeast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal around 6th.
    Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall likely over south peninsular Idia.

  13. Wishing you all a Great New year! just got back from Blr, it was quite chilly this morning.
    hope the new low brings us some rain..this will be a gr8 beginning for 2010

  14. imd update
    ————–
    A low pressure area is likely to form over southeast & adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal around 6th.

  15. Dear All,

    5.30 PM satellite picture shows a system is in the process of developing at about 750 KMS east of Jaffna. Going by the behaviour of the cloud pattern for the past 24 hours, there is an indication that the system might affect north tamil nadu and south andhra coasts. Karaikal and further north may get benefit out of it, as already the present latitude must be around 9 North. South tamil nadu is likely to be spared from heavy spells and most possibly masulipatnam in andhrapradesh would be the culminating point.

    a correct position would emerge with in 36 hours.

    ss.

  16. this system could actually be better than expected… Sea is warming quite fast.. Chennai has just another week of winter left.. SST’s just above the equator looking good..

  17. IMD has updated the MID_DAY forecast

    Now it says,

    Numerical weather prediction (NWP) Guidance

    · An easterly wave likely to affect south peninsular India from 7th onwards.

  18. @ Kea
    the wettest 24 hrs january rainfall is 212.9mm on 15th in 1915.
    The same year holds the record for highest rainfall for january with 244.1mm rain.

  19. Imd is jumping fast into conclusions. first it said easterly wave, then it said low pressure and now they are going back to easterly wave all with in24 hours when the cloud pattern still far away from the coast.

    I really do not understand with lot of equipments in the offing, why they are unable to predict and it is so unfortunate.

    Going by the progress, we can expect a low pressure system with in 48 hours in south east bay.

    But i could find at chennai north westerly winds blowing which actually drops the minimum temperature. But bay of bengal is a very tricky ocean bed apart from pacific/atlantic can turn the weather table in hours.

    any opinion??

    ss

  20. Thunder,

    In fact i had seen the 8.30 PM dundee satellite picture which clearly proves there is a possibility of formation of system soon as the growing cloud pattern exists and spreads very wide for nearly 300 to 400 KMS. But it also reflects it had slightly moved north almost east of jaffna/pamban.

    IMD is giving 2 versions of predictions with the aid of so much equipments which is really a wonder. with the technology they have, they can come up with more correct forecasts.

  21. IMD Kolkatta traced a trough of low pressure over south east bay and adjoining south andaman sea. why there is a difference, as both belong to IMD.

    ss,

  22. BBC pressure chart showing a low pressure forming on wednesday but by thursday the low fizzles out to a wave..The sea is warmer in south east bay so it can supprt development but what about the SST close to TN coast..i dont think they are favourable.lets wait and see..

  23. Dear All,

    Westerlies taking control as per Businessline,maybe these weaker systems will not strengthen and could well signal the end of NEM

    The buzz in the Bay of Bengal could likely get smothered by a western disturbance as associated westerlies blow deep into the peninsula and into the Bay.

    In fact, the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is of the view that the moisture-laden easterlies would get sprayed in an east-northeast direction over peninsular India under the influence of the westerlies during the week starting Monday (January 4).

  24. kea,

    Do u still hope for 15cm?..i dont think so..the current conditions lukin bad..it will be difficult to cross dat 6cm mark itself i think..we may have lite rains only..i definitely think the temp today is the lowest..cud well be in the early 18s..

  25. Read my post yesterday and this:
    SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
    A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
    (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S
    91.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 87.7E, APPROXIMATELY 960 NM EAST OF
    DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
    DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING CONVECTION
    LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LLCC. A 041147Z SSMIS PASS
    INDICATED THAT THE LLCC WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAJOR REGION
    OF CONVECTION, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN
    BUILDING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE
    WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
    A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR (VWS) IS STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) AND REMAINS THE LIMITING
    FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND TOTAL
    PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A WELL
    DEFINED LLCC AND FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, BUT WITH HIGH VWS
    VALUES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
    CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
    ————————————————————————

    Today the Moon crosses Celestial Equator and goes down under, it joins the sun at 21 Deg south on 15th cause eclipse. By this time Sun would have climbed 1.5 degrees. The warm water currents already have started to flow south from north. In past three days, there had been three TC formation alerts down under and last week one significant TC near the coast of Darwin. Also, there is a negligible feed to Bay of Bengal from Pacific and South China sea via Gulf of Thailand.

    Dhinakar R Iyer

  26. Kea

    wat was the low last night? it felt really really cold almost like Blr, inside IIT its is almots 2 degrees lower than outside

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