143 thoughts on “Hopefully a wet jan to start the new year

  1. Dear All,

    Around 8th of January planetary conditions become favourable for healthy system to originate in bay of bengal. Actually as per astro science the north east winds would totally cease from south india only on Jan 15th the day sun moves towards northern pole. SO we may be in for some showers between Jan 8 and Jan 15th.

    SS.

  2. @thunderjove..i dont think there is any circulation as of now..it diffcult to tell now since the clouds are very unorganised but i am optimistic of circulation developing from that wave in few days..maybe we can see in 2 or 3 days 🙂

  3. @Karthik.some 2 days back BBC models did not even pick the waves of the coast of sumatra..but now it is doing so..from this we can infer that forecast models are higly unpredictable.we cannot say anything about the track of the wave as of now since lot of days are left for it to develop and the forecast models may vary in future.

  4. Jim Andrews – International Weather Blog

    Unusually Late Rain in India
    ———————————–
    Rain has broken out along the southern Deccan and neighboring west coast of southern India during the last few days. Rainfall of 23 mm was observed as of Monday at Bangalore whereas
    sea-side Mangalore picked up about 6 cm since Sunday. This would be unusually late in the season for rain this far north. If the lateness of the south India rain were not enough, there is more of it on the way. For help in understanding this, the reader may wish to go here to look at the IMD infrared satellite imagery.

    The COLA site compiles GFS forecast rainfall (“QPF”) in a fortnightly outlook:

    During the first forecast week, forecast rainfall is shown for most of the west coast/Western Ghats,
    even reaching into northern India and Nepal. The underlying trigger for this forecast of rain would be two separate troughs in the Westerlies forecast to cross the Subcontinent from the west.

    First of these western disturbances will swing quickly across the Subcontinent during the next 24-48 hours, triggering showers and thunderstorms in the recurving stream of tropical moisture. The idea that a few spots will get heavy falls–say, 10 cm or so–seems valid to me.

    http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?blog=andrews&partner=&pgUrl=/mtweb/content/andrews/archives/2009/12/unusually_late_rains_in_india.asp

    COLA-GFS IS PREDCTING HEAVY RAINS FROM 6TH-14TH

  5. one of the readers from pakistan in Jim Andrews blog

    shoaib:

    Dear jim,Late or on time but I am sure that india has enough rain each and whole year.Indians want atleast 6 months or whole year daily thunderstorms which is unable to understand or i can’t figure out this?If they were in karachi,they would have been died.I am sure that indians will never happy even after having thunderstorms whole year.Much of the indian nation receives each year heavy rain atleast 3 months during monsoon and gfs forecast and stats are witness of it but they are not happy.We karachi people have never seen daily rains during monsoon like mumbai or calcutta even there is no guarantee of rain in karachi during monsoon also.I think indians should learn from karachi dry and hot weather and should be happy after having daily heavy rains during or without monsoon.Chennai is the city which may have rain at any time of year because bay of bengal has always full of rain amount from any angle.If mumbai is drowned under the sea than also,indians will say that rain was not enough?Do you know that what do indians want?

    Posted by shoaib | December 29, 2009 12:28 PM

  6. http://www.pakmet.com.pk/cdpc/karachi.htm

    see karachis wetaher extremes my gunsee…very well above 40 from march to october and november highest is 38.5 and the same time lowest recorded is 0.0 in dec….my gudness..in terms of heat chennai is far better..and in 2009 it has got 27cm in the monsoon season..this is 99pc above normal..it shud have got 30cm for the whole year…definitely shoaib has every reason to be frustrated ..

  7. Karthi,

    I had sent a very apt reply to shohab’s statement but somehow it did not so far appeared. Shohab forgets the fact that they have Hindus river which caters their needs for all the 365 days, whereas for both Mumbai& chennai always depends on rainfall even for drinking purpose.

  8. 1st 2010

    Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt) 5, Ambalavayal (Wayanad dt), Belgaum Airport, Bhagamandala (Kodagu dt), Sringeri (Chickmagalur dt), Bangalore Airport and Huliyurdurga (Tumkur dt) 2 each and Gerusoppa (Uttara Kannada dt), Londa (Belgaum dt), Napoklu (Kodagu dt), Sravanabelgola (Hassan dt) and Bandipura (Chamrajanagar dt) 1 each

    Karanataka is getting rains daily

  9. Karthi

    how abt including
    Amboli,Gaganbawada and Neeriamangalam to the rainfall list along with Mahabaleshwar

    i can update their rainfall data daily from imd Mumbai

    where will u get cherrapunji’s or Mawsynram data
    imd kolkatta is not working

  10. @thunderjove yes the disturbance is there over area to the north east of sumatra and adjoining southern gulf of thailand which is likely to move in a westerly direction..

  11. Hi every one.. happy new year to one and all…..

    As a new year resolution, i collected rainfall data for 40 stations across TN,Kerala,Karnataka and southern AP for 2009….

    I have ranked them based on highest rainfall.. and also indicated the share of every season in total rainfall….

    Source of data:
    Feb 28 , May 31, sept 30, dec 31 issues of Hindu paper 2009…

    link:
    http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AoHUJ7NT4PiqdFZZREZTcV9qczBHdmI3WE9UZWtRZWc&hl=en

    Thanks 🙂

  12. Some observations that i observed:

    1. Vedaranyam’s rainfall gauge had some serious problem in south west monsoon period.. so it was not recorded in SWM period.. I gave 0 for vedaranyam for SWM period.. yet its annual rainfall is an amazing 180cm!!!!!!!

    2. In the top ten ranks of the stations according to rainfall.. a thumping majority of 7 is from Karnataka

    3. TV puram has a distributed rainfall pattern

    4. Coimbatore is one of the driest cities in South India

    5. Valparai has got 370cm rainfall… i am quite sure chinna kallar will be well above 450cm….

  13. Thanks pradeep.. please keep up the good work u are doing .. it ll be nice if we know anybody personally from IMd.. so that we can get rainfall of stations lik chinna kallar,devala, sriperumbadur and neriamangalam from 1990

  14. @karthik
    the dep may skirt along TN coast and finally towards vizag which i saw in latest gfs,so chennai will have rains.

  15. @karthik
    now how did that news come from bbc that a dep may form and where it came from,how to go???????????????????????????

  16. @karthik
    BBC forecasts a depression forming out from a wave near sumatra by thursday..It may become a cyclone..he told this today morning but according to bbc only.

  17. Jim Andrews on the Possible cyclone

    Dear Pradeep.

    Thank you for the comment.

    There has been a “wet signal” for SE India/Sri Lanka on some GFS model runs for roughly the second week in January. I do not rule out a tropical depression, even a cyclone.

    Jim

  18. The GFS numerical forecast model is once again hinting at anomalous wet weather during the second week of January beginning at about the 7th. This would start in Sri Lanka and the state of Tamil Nadu, then expand to Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.

    Coincident with the forecast rainy outbreak over the South East would be some kind of cyclonic disturbance, maybe a tropical cyclone. Too early for me to have any confidence here.

    JIM ANDREWS…latest…

  19. Dear Karhi,

    It is too early to say. but i do find some whirl over south east bay of bengal in the latest satellite possibly east of srilanka in the mid bay of bengal. could develop with in 48 to 72 hours. already south easy bay is warmer during january and equtarial convenction could spread up to 5 degree north. I suppose a system would form around 5 north and 90 east.

    System would never cross beyond chennai-nellore belt, as towards further north sea surface temperatures would be less besides anticyclone spreads up to ongole nellore belt. still i could see north easterly winds prevail most of the time at chennai and that is why IMD had not announced withdrawal of NE monsoon.

    System if it forms might strike from karaikal to srilanka coast. Chennai may be cloudy for a day or two and of course with some showers. If it strikes above karaikal, may be chennai has to face flood like conditions. probably a depression would be in the making, as sea areas beyond 5 north and less are very much conducive to produce a good system.

    we hope by Jan 5th there will be a total clarity on this.

    ss.

  20. even if it does cross coast near karaikal we will get heavy rains..but the real problem is…whether a system will form…becus tthe sst is not that conducive for a healthy system..its just at the threshold temp..lets see…

  21. Karthi.

    How accuweather jimsays so caregorically a system would develop in bay. is he not aware of sea surface temperatures.

    actually all numerical model normally adopt all parameters in to considerations and if they really do it systamatically hardly their predictions go wrong, as it is also part of science.

    in the recent years there were not much error rate as far as development of system only its movement or crossing either gets delayed or taking different direction which always depends upon situations at the very moment.

    in fact the year 2015 witnessed more than 20 Centimeters of rainfall on 15th Jan as per records.

    let us see.

  22. regret for the typo error karthi.

    it was in 1915 chennai recorded 213 MM of rain fall. still i have study for 2010 weather pattern and certainly my forecast was not for 2015.

    sorrry.

    ss

  23. Dear all
    imd not yet updated the mid day forecast,its still showing the morning forecast,i am sure that something is big enough for them………………………………..

  24. not even a word of isolated rainfall for south peninsula in the mid day forecast… so guys… lets wait for June 1 or the may thunderstorm patiently 🙂

  25. noo thers definate rainfall activity instore this coming week fr tn coast may be in d form of e wave, may commence frm middle part of coming week

  26. Dear All,

    Chennai KDM becomes bit overcast from this evening. very high clouds and a bunch of low clouds from north east travelling towards south west.

    we could see a cloud mass in south central bay of bengal in the evening satellite picture which gives me a hope it would trigger a weather system in another 3 or 4 days.

    let us see.

    ss

  27. @suresh,

    Those are just normal clouds. They are not linked to any disturbence. Just see after an hour. They will clear up rapidly. Tomm or day after IMD will announce the withdrawal of NEM considering the FOG which started today.

  28. NEM for 2009 has come to an end:SOURCes

    By: mahesh on December 26, 2009
    at 4:59 pm

    Reliable information coming in that there will be an offical confirmation from IMD expected to be released on Jan 1st or 2nd on the withdrawal of NEM for 2009..

    this is wat u hav been sayin——

  29. karthikraghavan1994,

    You got to understand that everyone are just predicting their views as do weather models does. In my opinion there will be no more rains from NEM. Even your prediction does not go well. Till now i have been successful in pointing that there would be no rain from NEM 2009. I stick to my point and sure that end of NEM would be announced at any time

  30. I dont see the yellowish sky which i had been seeing in the last 2 hours in chengalpet. Bright stars have come up with bluish background. As i expected those clouds have dissappeared.

  31. @Varun..even if it is going to be end of NEM there is a chance of rain..It happened in 2005 Jan when a cyclone “Hibaru” formed only after the end of NEM.If you can look at the sattelite the convention are quite persistent close to sumatra and SE bay and it is not fizzling out ..BBC model are predicting some develpment from this wave..it may not be a cyclone but definitely quite significant weather system..Moreover BBC forecast are quite reliable when compared to all other forecast as far as i know…Remember they are the one who predicted the track of cyclone “ward” perfectly when the forecast from other organisation proved wrong..it not only for cyclone “ward” but for lot of systems ..i remember some 2 years back they are the one who predicted the unusual track for Typhoon “hagibis” even at that time JTWC and other organisation went wrong… In 2008 they are the one who predicted cyclone “nisha” to make landfall to the north of nagapattinam right from the beginning even at that time JTWC was not clear with the path of the storm as they changed the forecast track 3 times and finally got the right one.. In my view BBC forecast are better than JTWC and other organisation there are lot of instances to support it..lets wait and see ..

  32. Dear All,

    now the sky is somwhat clear. but there are some possibilities when moon conjoins with saturn in virgo there could be sea based system would occur and strengthen. The conjunction would occur on 7th and for another 8 days moon travels across watery constellation. SO till 15th of January we can expect some showers. i.e between the period 7th and 15th of jan irrespective of the fact whether you call that NEM or not.

    The latest dundee satellite ( 8.30 PM) continue to prove the cloud mass slowly developing and possibly it would be around 1000 to 1200 KMS to south east of chennai which is fair enough to bring rains to TN if it moves in its normal north westerly direction. comments about this from any one please.

    ss

  33. @suresh..like you i am also optimistic of a system developing from this unorganised clouds..Latest satellite picture shows persistent clouds in SE bay but i could not see any organisation as of now..i think it would become better organised in a day or two.

  34. The whole South Bay is crowded with clouds.For the past few hours clouds are exploding around that area with showing signs of organising.

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