366 thoughts on “Cyclone Ward to cross south TN coast by Sunday night

  1. IMD didnt even change their bulletin.

    They just changed the time to 14:30

    The cyclonic storm ‘WARD’ over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, 12th December 2009 near lat. 10.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 400 km northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 500 km east-southeast of Nagapattinam and 550 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast.

    Latest observations show sign of weakening of the system.

    They only added the last line

  2. JTWC says the convection has weakened.. But the centre of the LLC has tight banding curves..

    If it tracks straight west chennai will not benefit much from it..

  3. interesting from jtws update

    MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
    THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND WBAR, WHICH BOTH RE-CURVE
    THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD INTO THE STR

  4. Guys did you check out the BBC forecast.. It looks like their original forecast is turning out to be true.. BBC always hinted at the system going to south TN coast.

  5. Yes thats true.. The system is still atleast 450 kms off from the coast.. Anything can happen.
    Who knows JTWC might say tomm system moving WNW now

  6. Satellite pic shows the western disturbance affecting the upper half of north west and Northern India..
    That is the culprit that weakened this system

  7. Guys,

    IMD says

    rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from today, the 12th December 2009 evening/night

    Is that true. Iam afraid to say that i dont see any chance of weather turning wild at all. The situation out is absolutely calm.

  8. WARD Intensity-Update
    ———————-
    IMD – 998mb – 45kts
    ADT – 987mb – 51kts
    AMSU – 991mb – 51kts
    SATCON – 990mb – 50kts

  9. question?- As Ward has tracked westwards in the last 6 hours- and this could be possibly due to westerlies- is there a probability that it can again get into North-west movement ( instead of the current westward) and come close to Chennai.

  10. k guys wen can we expect the first atleast mod rains from this system?….its frustratin now to see very dak clous just sprinkling ere….itd like sehwag scoring at a strike rate of 30 per 100 balls

  11. Is there a possibility of WARD striking tamilnadu ( either south or north) based on the current situation? If not chennai or puducherry, will it strike any part of coastal TN?

  12. hey guys. wats the situation now with that vethu ward.. i saw news.. they telling its going north butit kk rain in TN.. wats the matter?

  13. for the past few hours……..its stationary with a few westward movement……………………….if the direction is further NW….chennai would be the target………..

  14. Guys,

    The below JTWC statement is great news

    TC
    WARD IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
    TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
    TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
    THIS FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND WBAR, WHICH BOTH RE-CURVE
    THE SYSTEM ERRONEOUSLY NORTHWARD INTO THE STR.

  15. By all means it should strike anywhere in tn? is that rite? But news has been flashed that “cyclone has moved direction”. what does it mean? Has it really moved away from TN. Because, we cannot seee those dark clouds and wind

  16. the cyclone is not any closer to trigger heavy rain…..plus sun at this moment will be in the western horizon which can have every chance to be with some blue skies…it is a concern only if we see sun in the morning hours say bout 8-10 tomoro

  17. If there is a strong system in bay, there will be no area in the sky where the sun can popout. it should be overcast atleast? am i right?

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