244 thoughts on “Cyclone WARD heading towards Nagapatinam

  1. Guys even though i am posting very less comments in this site but for every 1 hour i am keep track this forum during the rainy time. I am accessing this site from my mobile since this site is blocked in office and also i dont have a computer in my house.

  2. Thanks, kea. I just hope it’s not drifting too far off into the northeast. So far, looks like it’s on track to begin that northwest and subsequently westward turn.

    Btw, awesome job with the website and weather station. Keep it up! So many like me, who are unable to experience the wonders of the NE monsoon in person, live it through your website to get our daily monsoon fix!

  3. S its moved ne but now its moving nw according to jtwc n more w movement predominantly due to the reason stated by jtwc report

  4. It’s not uncommon for the rain to start less than 24 hours before cyclone landfall. I would say today will pass with just light breeze, winds will pick up tonight into tomorrow, and the rain will only begin tomorrow.

  5. Why does IMD keep saying
    “Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from tomorrow, the 13th December 2009 onwards.”

    The system is already above south TN ??

  6. JTWC says WARD has tracked WNW in the past 3 hours. Latest Position: 10.0N 84.4E.

    The track clearly shows a WNW direction.

    REMARKS:
    120300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 84.4E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (WARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH-
    EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
    BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF TC 05B
    ARE DEEPENING FROM THE SOUTH AND WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
    THE SYSTEM. CONVECTION HAS SEEN A CYCLIC DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRALIZED
    CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE
    MOST RECENT ITERATION OCCURRING IN THE PAST THREE HOURS. THE LLCC HAS
    BEEN CHALLENGING TO IDENTIFY, MAKING THE TRACK SOMEWHAT SUSPECT. THE
    ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE, AND BASED ON THE
    MOST RECENT ANIMATED IMAGERY, THE LLCC APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A MORE
    WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE PERSISTS WITH A
    MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSING TC 05B TO MOVE INTO THE
    SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF INDIA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48. UPPER LEVEL ANAL-
    YSIS HAS THE POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE STILL OVER TC 05B PROVIDING AN
    AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES HAVE BEEN
    SUPPORTING THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT THE
    ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OVER
    THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THIS SUPPORT IS LIKELY TO BE DISRUPTED AS
    THE WESTERLIES LIFT NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT
    WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF TC 05B MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. THE REDUC-
    TION IN OUTFLOW TO THE MID-LATITUDES WILL KEEP INTENSIFICATION TO
    A MINIMUM BEFORE TC 05B TRACKS INTO COASTAL INDIA, CAUSING THE DISSI-
    PATION OF WARD AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
    120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 1209OOZ, 121500Z AND 122100Z.//

  7. But the satellite pics of WARD looks weakened now ?? I felt last night the system looked more dense .. Any comments ??

  8. Yay for westward movement! Now all we need is continued WNW movement.

    Window for additional strengthening seems limited to the next 12 hours, according to JTWC. But as long as it maintains its current strength and continues its slow rate of movement, TN is in for a battering.

  9. I wish and pray that WARD gives copious rains to TN. Especially Chennai.. As far as wind speed is considered.. I would love to experience high wind speeds. But that is not good for the city as such.. It will create havoc.. and there will be power cuts for sure.. and i wont be able post here and see others views..;)

  10. I’d give it 90-10 too, and that is conservative. Seems like it’s got nowhere to go now…!

    Although with Mother Nature, never say never. So yeah, 90-10 would be my guess.

  11. Oh My Goodness. That means according to JTWC WARD will gust up to 130 Kmph.. That is a Category 3 Storm. Is it not ?

  12. Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale is 130 miles/hr, not 130 km/h. 130 km/hr is ~80 miles/hr, or a strong category 1.

  13. Not to say that 130 km/hr is a joke. We need the rain, and we all love the weather, but high winds do no good for the state. I would hope it doesn’t strengthen too much, and continues its slow progress on track. The key to huge rain accumulation is slow movement.

  14. yes Agreed.. Slow moving potent systems generate more rains.. Fast moving cyclones generate more wind and less rains..

  15. Guys,

    One word of Caution.. I know we all wish that this system comes close to US and shows its might.
    But at the same time as we know the vagaries of nature, this system might drift apart too as it has happened in many instances in the past..

    Lets keep our fingers crossed. Not to demotivate you guys though

  16. wunderground has removed heavy rains possibility for Chennai.Is ward tracking westwards and losing the Northern tracking?Are the westerlies disorienting the system?

  17. I am further reducing my prediction to 50-80mm… slow movement is fine but this is over slow… i expect a break up.. wats ur take?

  18. datsssssssssssss a breaking news pradeep…. according to NASA, chennai and its satellite towns are getting mainly affected…. hope it remains so.. i dont want the delta districts to suffer.. farmers are really awaiting some profit this time

  19. Latest sat show llcc shifting toward west soon connective clouds will form around it i dont think it ll dissipate any sooner befor nearing coast on account of westerlies

  20. Johnny,

    I am beginning to have doubts abt this system. Why have everyone reduced their forecasts? Accu from 380 to under 100. Weather underground 300 to like 60.

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