Potential for development of a cyclone in Bay

According to GFS it is expected to go along the TN coast and enter BOB again. THis could dump huge amount of rain for Chennai. THis is expected to begin from Sunday with heavy heavy rains expected for Monday, that is this happens

223 thoughts on “Potential for development of a cyclone in Bay

  1. i had a very bad dream somewere btw 12 and 5.30……”a cyclone forms in the bay and goes to andhra without a drop for chennai…the day wen i waited to see heavy rains…turned out to be a sunny day.”!!!!!!

    • Thanks, Karthik! That is an awesome blog, truly makes me nostalgic… Keep up the awesome work. Your passion reminds me of my childhood (not that I’m that old, but still). I was the local weatherman in my neighborhood, and literally spent hours on the mottai madi analyzing cloud patterns, wind directions, and praying for those northeast clouds. The smallest sprinkle and I would run up to the terrace immediately. My family thought I was crazy back then! I had my own little system of measuring the daily rainfall (the depth of wetness on a particular wall; I measured the depth of wetness and correlated it with the rainfall data the next day in The Hindu. Soon enough I could state exactly how many cm of rainfall each storm brought.

      I also remember that the BBC weather forecast would be at 50 minutes past the hour every hour on BBC World, and I would watch the forecast every waking hour of every day for months on end during the NE monsoon season (this was before the days of the internet). It was my dream to set up a weather station, just like kea. Maybe someday I will, when I return.

      It hasn’t been that long ago, but feels like forever. My point is, keep up your passion, don’t let the craziness of board exams, college admissions etc. get the better of you. Pursue this passion, because there aren’t many like you!

  2. but dont lose hope.

    GFS track had predicted it. I think GFS is correct this time.

    BBC, IMD all predicting it to go to SL. But its coming north as per GFS. If you look closely at GFS model, it moved north until Sunday and then takes a left turn into Chennai

  3. A leading cyclonic circulation tracking model is the view that the westerlies would take the system to the north-northeast over land, i.e. towards north coastal Tamil Nadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh triggering moderate to heavy rains along the way, including over Chennai

  4. Looks like the discussion has moved to today’s page, so I’ll re-introduce myself. Here’s my (very late) post on yesterday’s discussion page:

    —Quote—

    Hi there, fellow weather-maniacs! I’m an ex-resident of Chennai (studying in the US now), and among the biggest NE monsoon fans there are. I’m very very happy to see this forum. I’ve been following the discussions for a while now, and here’s my first post.

    I’m terribly excited about the depression looming in the BOB! Being a weather nut and a tech junkie, I decided to make a small graphical forecast effort. I’ve marked the latest position of the centre of the low, and tried to identify the best path of movement that will bring the best rains for my dear dear Singara Chennai. Here’s to praying for some northwest movement!

    I’m very happy to be part of this forum. Too bad I’m missing the exciting happenings of the NE monsoon, but thankfully I can follow the proceedings through you guys and through the KEA website. kea.metsite.com is my homepage, and has been for a long time now! Keep up the good work, fellas and fellis!

    –Unquote—

  5. i am glad to see that…someone has tracked weather in BBC like i used to do….i used to wait for HINDU paper to see the satellite picture every morning….i still have the paper cuttings of NEM in 1990’s

  6. “There is also increasing forecast consensus that the depression might come under the influence of the opposing westerly flows from a prevailing western disturbance over northwest India. “

  7. wat do u guys think?… will it follow the “NISHA” way of retaining power even after landfall or will it escape to arabian sea affecting only south TN or will it disintegrate into pieces and vanish in the bay itself or will it just weaken after crossing sri lanka/south TN?

  8. The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 7.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 650 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 800 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. The system is likely to cross Sri Lanka coast between lat. 8.50 N and 9.50 N by evening of tomorrow, the 12th December, 2009.

  9. Date/Time(IST)
    Position

    (lat. 0N/long. 0E)
    Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

    11-12-.2009/0530
    7.0/84.5
    55-65 gusting to 75

    11-12-.2009/1130
    7.5/84.0
    55-65 gusting to 75

    11-12-2009/1730
    8.0/83.0
    55-65 gusting to 75

    11-12-2009/2330
    8.0/82.5
    55-65 gusting to 75

    12-12-2009/0530
    8.5/81.5
    65-75 gusting to 85

    12-12-2009/1730
    9.0/80.5
    65-75 gusting to 85

  10. very good… very good very good..according to imd’s prediction it would hit nagapattinam head on… and could move north after that as welll… very good news.. I expect a lot of rain for chennai…

  11. actually looking at latest sat pics.. looks like the dep has moved eastwards slightly… its probably around 86.5 now & not 84.5 as imd says..

  12. looking at weather zone’s GFS looks like its hitting chennai head on on 12 or 13th.. and then slowly starts heading north from the 14th

  13. it has not moved north so far.. only very slightly… some GFS models are predicting it could go north.. others are saying south TN.. it has been moving NW for the past 2 days.. But since IMD’s last update it has actually moved a little eastwards.. A Deep depression & cyclone is very hard to predict.. it could change course any moment..

  14. Sub: Deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal

    The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards, intensified into a deep depression and lay centred at 0530 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 7.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 650 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 800 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. The system is likely to cross Sri Lanka coast between lat. 8.50 N and 9.50 N by evening of tomorrow, the 12th December, 2009.

    Based on latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

  15. SL meterology does not have any warning whatsoever. THere forecast is as follows,

    Under the influence of an atmospheric disturbance, prevailing showery weather over the eastern parts of the country will be enhanced.
    There will be frequent showers with thunder at times in the Northern, Eastern, North-central and Uva provinces and in the Hambantota district.
    These showers may spread to other areas too.
    Heavy rainfalls are also likely at some places.
    Fairly strong winds are also expected over the island.
    General public is kindly requested to take adequate precautions to minimize the damages caused by lightning activities

  16. It has moved 1.7 deg N and 0.8 D E in 3 hours. It has already gone above IMD projected landfall path. I am putting my bet on GFS

    94N-838E (10:48 am Fri)
    77N-846E (7:30 am Fri)
    70N-840E (6:30am Fri)
    68N-841E (7:00 pm thu)
    65N-841E (6:30 pm thu)
    63N-838E (10:30 am thu)
    62N-842E (4:59 pm wed)
    95N-867E (7:46 am wed)
    89N-866E (5:15 pm tue)
    87N-874E (6:07 am tue)
    83N-899E (7:13 pm mon)
    55N-882E (6:28 am mon)
    53N-895E (6:25 pm sun)

  17. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 85.1E TO 9.6N 82.8E WITHIN
    THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
    SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
    IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
    110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
    84.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS

    THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

  18. latest GFS saying cyclone hitting CHennai on Tuesday, taking a U-turn entering BOB an going east towards Myanmar. Thi is a very unusual track and if this does occur, except lots and lots and lots of rain for Chennai. Ths should break all rain records for Chennai.

  19. The system seems to have moved slightly east. As already mentioned by me earlier, the western disturbance which is very active during this of the year may play spoil sport. But if it takes the NW path as shown by Mr. Prasanna in the graph, then chennai is in for some heavy to very heavy showers reminding us of 27/28th Nov.2008 when cyclone NISHA crossed the Nagapattinam-Vedaranyam belt.

  20. Martin,
    It looks to me there are 2 eyes. Right after it takes U-turn over chennai, it splits into 2. Is it actually possible to enter chennai and turn and go back?

    THis could be disastorous if it does happen

  21. Tat s not gonna happen kea either it crosses between tn coast n south andhra fully or moves away only 2 scenarios we wont get much rain at all in the latter scenario if its a cyclone, time to review our rainfall predictions

  22. GFS is my last hope, if it does not turn out to be true. it would well move north north and north, probably orissa or Myanmar.

    Will now by end of the day. If the cyclone is still south of chennai, we have a good chance. I think its moving fast atm

  23. It would actually not enter chennai completely.. it would still be centred in the bay… but stationary.. giving rains as its outer bands cover chennai & most of TN… after which warmer waters up north could take it there

    But seems to me that even if it does do this.. it wont go far.. it will most probably just go as far as north andhra or fizzle out over the bay..

    Remember its not a really strong cyclone.. its not yet a category 1… IMD predicts it hitting northern SL the moment it becomes a category 1..

    I think the GFS models predictions would have done well for a category 3 or 4 Cyclone..

  24. yes martin is right. that is the reason why JTWC has still not numbered this TC so far. although it is still far to comment on its final lap, my feeling it it may take a turn into bay and fizzle out. but at the same time we should be getting some rains but not as expected by my blog friends.

  25. Light rains have just started on the east coast of sri lanka… The cyclone is too far for us to be getting rains… even the outermost band is about 250kms from chennai.. So no chance of rains till tonight or tomorrow morning… or unless it picks up speed & moves our way..

  26. No its not moving tat fast infact very lil since night its just ne of matagalappu at the end of day still south of cdl chennai npt possibly

  27. 11:30 sat shows its getting more disorganised.. But I have my doubts… I have a feeling its gonna get bigger & stronger in the next 6 hours & pick up speed & change direction

  28. 1 last prediction before lunch… Category 2 cyclone by tomorrow evening.. hitting pondicherry & cuddalore on sunday night or monday morning.. if this haappens.. 260 – 280mm.. if not.. 160 – 180mm

  29. The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 7.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 350 km east-southeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 650 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 800 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross Sri Lanka coast between lat. 8.50 N and 9.50 N by evening of tomorrow, the 12th December, 2009. Subsequently, it may emerge into Gulf of Mannar and cross Tamil Nadu coast by noon of 13th December 2009.

    • Whatever be the predictions, nothing is for sure until the rains finally lash Chennai and other parts of TN. It is a wait and watch game until it rains!

  30. Kea it is north.. it is currently close to 9N… IMD has got it wrong & so is their prediction… we’ll probably see changes in their 2:30 bulletin

    • Then in another few hours, the predictions will be close 0 to 10 mms. That’s how the NE monsoon has been playing truant right from the beginning.

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