212 thoughts on “Depression could intensify into Cyclone WARD

  1. BOB 05/2009/06 Dated: 11. 12. 2009
    Time of issue: 1430 hours IST

    The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centred at 1130 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 8.00 N and long. 84.50 E, about 300 km east of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 580 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 700 km southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast skirting, Sri Lanka coast during next 48 hours.
    However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above the system is under watch.
    http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.htm

  2. I had one of the most ultimate experience….

    we went to the 8th floor terrace.. sprinkling drizzles with gusty winds.. ultimate feeling.. i might considering revising my figures if i get conformed info abt non-NNE movement of cyclone πŸ™‚

  3. dats y I HATE cyclones.. their movement is highly unpredictable.. now if they go to myanmar i ll really get pissed off

  4. Seems this one is biggie its 900k from us still produces showers it ll stay this way unless it cross near us only minimal rain expected if its cyclone heading north

  5. No the sprinkle.. reminds me of the 2005 sprinkles.. and from the night it drenched chennai with a 27cm rainfall.. 8 30 PM – 8 30 AM.. hope something happens lik dat πŸ™‚

  6. below 10cm….

    My wish has come down a lot.. i ll be more than happy if Chennai city crosses 103cm mark..(more than some ooru πŸ™‚ )

  7. Sub: Cyclonic storm β€˜WARD’ over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal: Cyclone alert for Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast: Yellow Message

    The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm, WARD and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 8.50 N and long. 84.50 E, about 300 km east-northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 550 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 700 km south-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours.

    However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system. Considering all the above, the system is under watch.

    Based on latest analysis with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

    Date/Time(IST)
    Position (lat. 0N/long. 0E)
    Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

    11-12-.2009/1430
    8.5/84.5
    65-75 gusting to 85

    11-12-2009/1730
    8.5/84.5
    65-75 gusting to 85

    11-12-2009/2330
    9.0/84.0
    65-75 gusting to 85

    12-12-2009/0530
    9.5/83.5
    65-75 gusting to 85

    12-12-2009/1130
    10.0/83.0
    65-75 gusting to 85

    12-12-2009/2330
    10.5/82.0
    65-75 gusting to 85

    13-12-2009/1130
    11.0/81.0
    65-75 gusting to 85

    13-12-2009/2330
    11.0/80.0
    65-75 gusting to 85

    14-12-2009/1130
    11.0/79.0
    45-55 gusting to 65

    Under its influence, rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to commence over coastal Tamilnadu and Puducherry from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Subsequently, increase in rainfall activities with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls is likely over south coastal Tamilnadu from 12th December 2009 evening onwards.

    Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph are likely to commence along and off Tamilnadu and Puducherry coasts from tomorrow, the 12th December 2009 morning. Sea condition will be very rough to high along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off these coasts.

    Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 11th December 2009

  8. Its official… we are in the era of cyclone WARD

    The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved further northwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm, WARD and lay centred at 1430 hours IST of today, the 11th December 2009 near lat. 8.50 N and long. 84.50 E, about 300 km east-northeast of Batticaloa (Sri Lanka), 550 km southeast of Nagapattinam and 700 km south-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction towards Tamil Nadu coast during next 48 hours.

  9. okay i had some hopes we ll get atleast less than 10cm rain.. now super.. not even that.. it ll go to myanmar, bangladesh and who knows it ll track south to sri lanka… anything could happen 😦

  10. now of course the luk is not so gud in this forum but it cud change soon…for the past four days this has been the norm…we will start with gud news and end with bad ones or vice versa with changes in the between hours also….im sure we will get gud news before sleep….

  11. 12-12-2009/2330
    10.5/82.0
    65-75 gusting to 85

    13-12-2009/1130
    11.0/81.0
    65-75 gusting to 85

    13-12-2009/2330
    11.0/80.0
    65-75 gusting to 85

    Chennai is 13:05 80:15
    except lots of rain when WARD is in those positions above

  12. ok guys i never thought it would be the greatest comedy piece.. waste of time discussing abt WARD.. its just not going to happen.. c u

  13. IMD is saying it will hit nagapatinam, provided

    “However, satellite derived steering wind in upper troposphere suggests the possibility of northerly/ northeasterly movement of the system DOES NOT HAPPEN

  14. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) Guidance

    Β· The various numerical weather prediction models indicate further intensification of cyclonic storm with a wide variation in direction of movement (from west-northwest to north-northwest).

  15. the max chance of rain weather.com gives is 60%…..its forecast–

    DEC 11

    8PM – 20%

    9PM – 40%

    10PM – 40%

    11,12 & 1 – 50%

    2,3 & 4- 60%

    and sat and sun fully 60% ….as i said it has a max of 60% rain prediction,60% was predicted durin nisha also

  16. I’ve been reading so long al the posts from today morning in this blog… Its so very confusing at the end.. wer is the cyclone now???? But i’m still with my prediction of 120mms for chennai!!! It has come so near, i’m optimistic that it’ll give us some good rains!!! Any latest updates???

    • TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
      SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
      KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS SUFFICIENTLY
      CONSOLIDATED AND MEETS THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS
      ACCORDING TO DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM HAS
      SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTH WHILE DEEPENING OVER THE PAST FEW DAY, AND IS
      EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
      RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOME THE PREDOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM.
      CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM SITS BENEATH A POINT SOURCE, WHICH IS PROVIDING
      LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND PRONOUNCED RADIAL OUTFLOW. OUTFLOW
      IS BEING ENHANCED ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE CYCLONE INTO THE MID-
      LATITUDE FLOW AS WELL. EXCESSIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED
      WITH A STRONG ZONAL JET RUNNING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIA, IS LOCATED
      LESS THAN 4 DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF THE TC. GFS AND NOGAPS FIELDS
      INDICATE THAT THE JET WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND 15N BY TAU 48,
      ALLOWING FOR SLOW TO STEADY INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MODEL
      GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO JUST A FEW CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND THERE IS
      OVER A 600 NM SPREAD BETWEEN THE SOUTHERNMOST (GFDN) AND NORTHERN-
      MOST (WBAR) MEMBER AT TAU 72. BOTH GFS AND NOGAPS, THE REMAINING TWO
      CONSENSUS MEMBERS, DROP THE CIRCULATION AFTER THE FIRST 12 HOURS.
      THE FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE FIRST 36
      HOURS, THEN SPEEDS UP BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS
      TO THE NORTH (AND CONSENSUS SLOWS).

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